The Australian reports the three-weekly Newspoll has a tie on two-party preferred, unchanged no last time, from primary votes of Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 38%, Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 6% (steady). Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is down two to 37% and steady at 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-37, compared with 45-37 last time. Nothing yet on sample size and field work dates that I can see (UPDATE: Last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1249).
Nine Newspapers also has the quarterly Resolve Strategic aggregates, which are of interest insofar as they include results for Western Australia and South Australia accumulated over three monthly polls, which unlike the larger states are not published with each monthly poll. In Western Australia, the results have Labor down eight points on the 2022 election to 29% but the Coalition steady on 35%, with the Greens up three to 16%. In South Australia, Labor is down seven to 28%, the Coalition is steady at 36% and the Greens are up one to 14%.
Paul A, a red under the bed actually. Thanks for thinking of me though xoxo
The Greens delayed the Albanese Government’s climate action initiatives.
They actually wanted to vote against them.
But were shamed into accepting common sense.
The Greens have promised Zero Net Forty.
Fifteen years.
Think about that.
So the Greens are virtue signalling but they are also selling bullshit.
Thanks, MB.
Vlad….moi “delusional” ….You can’t be serious!
The fantasy Green land you live in puts Disneyland to shame.
Since the Greens like yourself have given up tree-hugging and pretend you and your party has something serious to contribute to politics, the Greens have become the chewing gum on the bottom of the shoe. A darned nuisance.
However, keep them second-preferences rolling in as this is as close as the Greens will even get to serious government – for many, many years to come.
Try to sell your dream-time stuff to anyone outside the inner-city and see how close Greens are to anything like serious power.
I can’t wait for the next election in the Federal electorate of Perth to see egg spattered all over your face.
The only party who can win this seat, other than Labor, is the Liberals.
However, keep them second preferences rolling in and I will thank you on behalf of Labor.
Farrell’s donation cap legislation indicates to me that he’s given up on the next Election and is planning to hamstring a Coalition Government
at the election after that.
It’s a plan, but it depends on a Dutton/Littleproud Government being at least as big a disappointment as first term Menzies, Fraser, Howard and Abbott Governments.
Which is the way to bet, unfortunately.
edited
Drug resistant typhoid…
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/sep/24/drug-resistant-typhoid-disease-pakistan-antibiotics-superbugs-children
Donation caps will not be in place for the next election.
Thanks William.
Aw gawd, even getting a serve from rusted-on Liberal Taylor mMde tonight…..
Just like an old fag, soon puffed out and forgotten.
Normally, I don’t waste my time reading your Liberal tripe, but as you made special mention of my brilliant and thoughtful contribution here, you deserved a response.
Keep offering your normal sad-sack posts as I know when to skip over.
Live in dreams of a better Oz tomorrow under Dutton… a nightmare for the rest of us.
The number of under 40’s voting Green doesn’t suggest they’re going away anytime soon. The third party vote has been going up at every election since 2004 and Labor and the LNP’s performance this term doesn’t suggest they are likely to buck that trend. You’ll need to get used to power sharing.
Hello Vlad and MJ, thank you. 🙂
mjsays:
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 at 9:07 pm
The number of under 40’s voting Green doesn’t suggest they’re going away anytime soon. The third party vote has been going up at every election since 2004 and Labor and the LNP’s performance this term doesn’t suggest they are likely to buck that trend. You’ll need to get used to power sharing.
——————————————————————————–
The fact that you have to recruit children to make your party sustainable is not a good thing. How far down is your list of policies is lowering the age to 16?
That’s a good point.
There’s Young Labor, Young Liberals, is there a Young Greens?
I’ve read that AI may be relied on predictively. I hope life insurance companies aren’t aware of this. And might it be used to determine guilt? Futuristic yes, but a few years back students used to write own their essays. I wonder if some posters on this site use Smart Chat AI.
Under constitutional reform decreasing the voting age is no 8 out of 21.
Reading some of the Greens policy document it really seems to be written with a 16 year old’s ideological thinking.
You have to read some of this, it is some full on bat shit crazy stuff, I do not know how they can write this full loon stuff with a straight face. It’s your second cone while watching sesame street stuff. https://greens.org.au/about
No probs Nicholas.
Always happy to back a Green, especially your articulate posts.
You have obviously seen the repetitive spam which comes from some of the ALP posters, commencing around 7.30am every day. It’s relentless, but they have nothing else to provide except supporting insanity. They attack greens without mercy yet give the right wingers on this site a free pass.
Been there and Mavis are the only decent ALP posters because they don’t treat us like dirt. The rest are dickheads.
Remember, that poster posts spam.
Steelydansays:
Tuesday, September 24, 2024
The fact that you have to recruit children to make your party sustainable is not a good thing. How far down is your list of policies is lowering the age to 16?
————–
It’s not “my party” my vote is open to someone else if something better comes along. I don’t think you should ever identify with a party like a sports team and throw out your brain in the process. Where is BW by the way? I guess the tirade will come tmrw.
It doesn’t have to recruit children because those kids will age and may become middle aged and elder Greens voters. As for lowering the voting age to 16 I’m all for it, young people are no less capable to vote at that age than over 18’s.
banquo911:
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 at 3:07 pm
Bizzcansays:
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 at 2:45 pm
RBA holds:
https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2024/mr-24-18.html
And this is a blunt as you are going to get from a central bank that high migration is the problem…
__________________________
This is the same high migration that is the only thing (along with profligate government spending) keeping us out of a recession? That high immigration?
Yeah, I can see why we all hold the RBA board in such high regard, and think a government initiated QUARTER PERCENTAGE POINT reduction would unleash hell.
Y’all need to get a grip
________________________
So I saw this, and it is really interesting to see progressive lefties so strongly attach meaning to aggregate GDP in their defence of high migration, especially after spending a decade tut-tutting economists about how evil GDP is.
Households are feeling the squeeze from high inflation and are cutting back on spending, so I don’t see the point further inflaming inflation (through excessive demand) just to keep the aggregate figure ok. You can’t culture war-away supply and demand, population is growing much faster than housing supply, and this pushing up prices.
__
And just to clarify, yes a “government mandated” rate cut would “unleash hell”. It signals to global capital markets that Australia is an unreliable market, increase risk premiums on international finance and ultimately make mortgages more expensive, not cheaper. Plus a currency decline would increase imported inflation.
I swear, its like the far left have whole-heartedly adopted the right wing monetarist conspiracy theories of 1980s. The RBA are not some evil cabal secretly trying to impoverish the nation – they are just trying to make life better for the most vulnerable while the entire political spectrum unites to pump the migration button.
Hey Nicholas thanks, I enjoy your thoughtful posts 🙂
It doesn’t have to recruit children because those kids will age and may become middle aged and elder Greens voters. As for lowering the voting age to 16 I’m all for it, young people are no less capable to vote at that age than over 18’s.
———————————————————————————
Statement does not make sense. The only way that the Greens vote has remained static is children becoming Green voters and as they mature they gain some common sense and vote for the major parties. If what you stated was true your voting block would be increasing exponentially. I know many who voted Green in their teens and early 20’s they now blush if it comes up in conversation. Some have even fully matured and vote conservative.
‘If You Are Not a Liberal When You Are Young, You
Have No Heart, and If You Are Not a Conservative
When Old, You Have No Brain’
Bizcann
“And just to clarify, yes a “government mandated” rate cut would “unleash hell”. It signals to global capital markets that Australia is an unreliable market, increase risk premiums on international finance and ultimately make mortgages more expensive, not cheaper. Plus a currency decline would increase imported inflation.
I swear, its like the far left have whole-heartedly adopted the right wing monetarist conspiracy theories of 1980s. The RBA are not some evil cabal secretly trying to impoverish the nation – they are just trying to make life better for the most vulnerable while the entire political spectrum unites to pump the migration button.”
——————————————————————————-
This ^
Bizzcan I’m not going to defend the Greens on the interest rate intervention call, don’t think it’s necessary and as you say is risky there are other levers the govt can pull if they really want to tackle inflation to assist the RBA. Tbh I think it’s more of a signal to those struggling with mortgage stress and with an eye on the next election that the Greens are on their side knowing full well the govt isn’t going to budge on this.
Tonight’s west aust reports a Teal is going to run against the State labor gov MP for Fremantle Mcgurk.
“Voices for Fremantle campaign”.
No idea what the Teals are up to do they think it’s a no brainer a swing against labor is on and that the libs may not be good enough to get it so the teals will?
How could you seriously think that? Their approach to controlling inflation is to increase the number of unemployed people. Unemployment is devastating. The income support for unemployed people is $390 per week for a single person. The Henderson Report poverty line is $610 per week without housing costs taken into account.
The RBA board are extremely out of touch with regular people. They are mostly corporate executives and corporate consultants. They inhabit a very different world from the vast majority of people. They follow economic models that lack explanatory and predictive utility.
And the economic lever they wield isn’t even effective. When we have inflation increases it’s usually because of an external event like a war or a pandemic or an OPEC decision that disrupts the supply of critical goods. It’s not because of too much consumer spending. We have a housing inflation crisis caused chiefly by maldistribution of the housing we currently have. Consumer spending has nothing to do with that. The RBA doesn’t address any of the real causes of the inflation we’ve had.
We do not need the RBA board. The central bank should operate the payments system and that’s it. We can set the official interest at zero for all time and no regular person would lament the fact that their mortgage is cheaper and that many other things are cheaper because of the removal of a portion of the debt service burden.
Under Health Policy
44. Eligibility for human tissue and fluid donation (including blood) is to be determined by individual risk assessment.
https://greens.org.au/about
Any lurking Greens care to explain what this means?
Vlad not one Labor poster on PB is the same as any other poster. I’m not one who treats Greens ” like dirt” nor does several other Labor posters. You are being nasty. Calling a bunch of people dickheads invites pushback for personal insults. If you want respect, show some.
Nicholas
We do not need the RBA board. The central bank should operate the payments system and that’s it. We can set the official interest at zero for all time and no regular person would lament the fact that their mortgage is cheaper and that many other things are cheaper because of the removal of a portion of the debt service burden.
————————
Zero interest rates for all time is economic madness because it puts no price on capital supercharging asset bubbles and inflation.
Steelydan, the Greens only became a larger force after the Democrats imploded due to internal division over the GST, if I remember correctly they fell off a cliff around 2004. So really you’ve only had one and now and emerging second generation of people who’ve consistently voted Greens so it’s untested how many of those will stay voting Green into later years but presumably at least a fair portion will.
I’m only a sample size of one but the first election I was eligible to vote in was the 2005 WA State election and have voted the same way in every election since. I’m getting old in my late 30’s but would like to think my brain is still intact.
pied piper says:
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 at 10:05 pm
Nice to see the Teal Party wasting their time and money.
Elmer I’ve always found you to be respectful and reasonable to discuss issues with.
Same with you MJ. Thank you ☺
Brisbane Greens in the city council continuously block new supply of housing. Flagrant hypocrites.
Interesting to see a Teal (assuming they are a Teal) going for a Labor held seat,albeit a State election. All the seats targeted by Teals in 2022 and the 20 odd being targeted for the Federal election next year are/we’re Coalition held seats. I can’t imagine climate 200 funding Labor held seats challenges,at least not until they’re done with chasing Coalition seats. They would also have to broaden their platform to include housing and other cost of living issues which some of the current crop of sitting Indys are doing now for 2025. Interesting times ahead if Labor has the Greens and Teals going after them. Maybe in 2028.
@Nicholas
Interesting thesis, yes the number of unemployed people has increased by around 86k since the last rate rise… somewhat muted though by the fact that employment has increased by 374k. See, 374k is a little bigger than 86k, though to be fair, Marxist are better known for their micro than macro.
(Fun fact for all, communist countries make the best CGE models, because they thing they can micro manage everything!).
Also interesting to see people hanging on the old “external factors” argument, which is two years out of date now and the ABS make it pretty clear that domestic prices growth are driving inflation (unless they are in on the conspiracy)? “Maldistribution” of housing is an interesting one – also a bit out of date, those 1m supposedly empty houses in the 2021 census are a long way to being filled with 1 million migrants arriving since then.
And finally,
“We do not need the RBA board. The central bank should operate the payments system and that’s it.”
Ahhh, I now get it – this is old fashioned Catholic/Sharia usury law stuff! Slightly more seriously, I’m suspecting this is accompanied by China-style capital controls or you’ll need a heck of a lot of capital rationing.
pied piper says:
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 at 10:05 pm
Tonight’s west aust reports a Teal is going to run against the State labor gov MP for Fremantle Mcgurk.
“Voices for Fremantle campaign”.
No idea what the Teals are up to do they think it’s a no brainer a swing against labor is on and that the libs may not be good enough to get it so the teals will?
——————
Fremantle is the most Green leaning seat in WA so not sure a teal would actually get up here – it’s more of a Labor – Greens contest the Libs are no chance there. A teal could end up pulling more 1st pref votes away from McGurk and the Lib candidate which may then favour the Green but Labor should still hold it.
The swing against Labor in WA is definitely on but it’s from a 70-30 result last state election.
mjsays:
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 at 10:17 pm
Steelydan, the Greens only became a larger force after the Democrats imploded due to internal division over the GST, if I remember correctly they fell off a cliff around 2004. So really you’ve only had one and now and emerging second generation of people who’ve consistently voted Greens so it’s untested how many of those will stay voting Green into later years but presumably at least a fair portion will.
I’m only a sample size of one but the first election I was eligible to vote in was the 2005 WA State election and have voted the same way in every election since. I’m getting old in my late 30’s but would like to think my brain is still intact.
____________________________________________________________
You certainly don’t seem like the silliest I have read on here but voting Green is just silly if you have any real understand their policies. Unless you vote Green knowing your vote ends up with the ALP but what is the point in that…Oh look at me I’m special look …just vote ALP. But if your voting Green, then Socialist Alliance then the next lefty loon party with the ALP and LNP last then you are in the no hope basket.
You are right about the Democrats, Kernot joining the ALP also helped the implosion. Elections are probably yearly when including States and Territories generation’s are not the measure, each 17 year old turning 18 and voting is. It is hardly an unknown that people become more conservative with age, it is just on overdrive with the Greens you simply can’t maintain 10 to 11 % (higher if the outcome means little) year in year out if young people are joining and staying the % should increase every year there is an election. If you truly extrapolate what a continued increase in the Green vote will cause more wins and longer periods of Conservative Government.
BT
Under Health Policy
44. Eligibility for human tissue and fluid donation (including blood) is to be determined by individual risk assessment.
Sounds like standard medical care to be discussed between doctor and patient during the consent process. Not sure why it would be included in a political policy unless it is intended that some government agency will supplant the doctor/patient relationship.
Boerwar at 7.17 pm
Informal vote in Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council election was almost 16.6%.
Probable reason is confusion about above the line and down below voting.
It is a bit of a shambles when different rules on basic aspects of voting exist at the three tiers of voting, thus putting “upward pressure” on the informal vote.
However, you will be relieved to know that a former teacher and prominent wombat rescuer from Majors Creek got elected this time by joining the really independent (i.e. not just a fake facade for a Lib) Mayor’s ticket.
Progressive majority on Council of at least 6 out of 11, including Esma Livermore, who was the Deputy Mayor for last 3 years.
Dr D
Is that the final figure?
In commentary on the NSW LG elections it was found that on the night only ATL was being counted and all BTL was being put in the informal category awaiting scrutiny. As a result the informal votr across the state was more than 20%
mj at 10.59 pm
Those minority of voters in Freo with a good memory will recall the Greens once (2009) won Freo. It didn’t end well for them. Ms Carles was swayed more by a strutter in the form of Mr T. Buswell than by concern to make Fremantle sustainable.
Brad Pettitt should have rebuilt the Greens’ local credibility but McGurk will be very hard to beat.
Yes Dr Dolittle that was a very strange liaison.
If you can be go to jail at 10, work full-time at 15, drive a car at 16 and enlist in the ADF at 17, then lowering the voting age is not quite the whack-job loon idea that whack-job loon conservatives think it is.
Royal Doultonsays:
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 at 11:25 pm
If you can be go to jail at 10, work full-time at 15, drive a car at 16 and enlist in the ADF at 17, then lowering the voting age is not quite the whack-job loon idea that whack-job loon conservatives think it is.
—————-
Greens like ideas they think benefit them but be careful what you wish for because the young will not always support the left because Keating probably lost 93 if the voting age was 16.
Just listening to the ABC Radio mourning how tough it is for the ALP federal government – nothing like an unbiased bit of barracking from our National broadcaster.
#TheirABC
Oakeshott Country at 11.11 pm
You are correct. The 16.6% figure included down below votes as well. The informal vote in Queanbeyan-Palerang was 4.9%. Still worse than the ACT.
Much depends on the local ticket, so the above line votes are usually decisive. E.g. in Braidwood the RFS Captain, who is well regarded and used to work in the local bank, did not help his cause by lining up with a failed National Party candidate who had once been on the Council.
Barilaro took a long while to reveal his failings to those who were not observant, but he has probably dragged down the Nationals’ vote for a long while.
Royal Doulton says:
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 at 11:25 pm
Why not let them fully adult then? Get pissed. Remove the restrictions on the ADF operationally deploying them? How young do you think they should have sex?
Steelydan says:
Tuesday, September 24, 2024
You certainly don’t seem like the silliest I have read on here but voting Green is just silly if you have any real understand their policies. Unless you vote Green knowing your vote ends up with the ALP but what is the point in that…Oh look at me I’m special look …just vote ALP. But if your voting Green, then Socialist Alliance then the next lefty loon party with the ALP and LNP last then you are in the no hope basket.
You are right about the Democrats, Kernot joining the ALP also helped the implosion. Elections are probably yearly when including States and Territories generation’s are not the measure, each 17 year old turning 18 and voting is. It is hardly an unknown that people become more conservative with age, it is just on overdrive with the Greens you simply can’t maintain 10 to 11 % (higher if the outcome means little) year in year out if young people are joining and staying the % should increase every year there is an election. If you truly extrapolate what a continued increase in the Green vote will cause more wins and longer periods of Conservative Government.
————
I understand their policies, doesn’t mean I agree with everything they say but they are the only genuinely centre-left or left wing larger party atm in this country that does it’s best to improve the lives of everyone so that’s why I vote for them.
If I was around in Whitlam’s time I’d probably be a committed Labor voter but they are not that party anymore. Really people like me, in my position should be Labor voters and that I’m not should be and probably is a concern to Labor.
“Greens like ideas they think benefit them but be careful what you wish for because the young will not always support the left because Keating probably lost 93 if the voting age was 16.”
None of which is an argument against giving 16 year olds the vote. Reforms frequently work against those who propose them. Keating losing in 1993 would have been of enormous benefit to Australia by-the-by.
“Why not let them fully adult then? Get pissed. Remove the restrictions on the ADF operationally deploying them? How young do you think they should have sex?”
You can have sex at 16-17 in Australia, so you’re agreed we can lower the voting age to either of those then. I’m ok with that too. Glad we agree.
There is no reason to think a voting age of 16 would have been anything but favourable to Labor in 1993. See page 12.
http://www.ianwatson.com.au/pubs/watson_age_voting_report_mar08.pdf