Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Not much change on voting intention from two regular polls, though one records slight improvement in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down one on the primary vote to 29%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation steady on 8%, with an unchanged 5% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ result has the Coalition leading 48-47 after an even 48-48 last time, with the balance undecided. The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 47%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 42% and up one to 42%.

A monthly read of the national mood has a steady 52% rating the country on the wrong track with right direction up two to 31%. Further questions focus on social media, with 48% rating it too weakly regulated compared with 8% for too tough and 43% for about right; 67% favouring a lower age limit for access with only 17% opposed; and 71% favouring criminalising doxxing (“the public release of personally identifiable data with malicious intent”), with 12% opposed.

Prompted by an explanation of the proposal, 51% supported the government’s proposed help-to-buy shared equity housing scheme with 18% opposed; 48% felt the Coalition and the Greens should pass the government’s housing and rental reforms “and argue for their own policies at the next election”, while 22% preferred “they should block these housing reforms and continue to argue for their policies now”. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1117.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52-48 on preference flows from 2022. On the primary vote, Labor is up one-and-a-half to 32%, the Coalition is steady on 37.5%, the Greens are steady on 12.5% and One Nation is down half to 5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1662.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

958 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. “Just for clarity, what we are doing is what we have before the parliament. So I talk about what we’re doing, not what we’re not doing.”

    This is a grumpy Albanese clarifying what his government is doing about the housing crisis. News flash – your inadequate policies are blocked, so what you’re actually doing is nothing. So with no guts and no vision and no plan and a pathological refusal to deal with the Greens, I think you’re fucked mate.

  2. Fun times in Canadian politics: not the federal election (that’s next year), but three provincial elections coming up next month. In particular, British Columbia.

    Short-ish version: BC politics has been split between the NDP (centre-left) and BC Liberals (centre-right; no affiliation with the federal party) since the early 90’s, plus a few Greens. The Libs were the govt from 2001 to 2017, when they came up one seat short of a majority – NDP took power with Green support. In 2020, like most elections in the middle of Covid, the NDP won with an increased majority.

    And then…

    In April 2023, the BC Liberals thought it was a really good idea to change their name to “BC United”, with a weirdly ugly aqua/pink colour scheme. Check out their recent polling to see what a good idea that wasn’t. Last month, with their vote in the low teens and EIGHT of their MPs having jumped ship to the Conservatives (more on them in a bit), BC United suspended their campaign, with their leader endorsing the Conservatives to avoid vote-splitting (this is under FPTP). Trouble is, some of the remaining MPs originally elected as Liberals don’t want to go quietly, so they’re running either as independents or unregistered BCU candidates. Meanwhile, some Conservative candidates had already been preselected, but got replaced by sitting MPs from BCU, and of course some of them aren’t going quietly, either. So, a total mess on the right-hand side of politics.

    As for the BC Conservatives. Until recently, they were fringe weirdos who came second in by-elections occasionally (again, little to do with their federal namesakes). They’re more alt-right than the Libs (climate change deniers, Covid conspiracists, the usual culture war garbage), although they’re trying to trim the more outrageous stuff to make themselves look electable. It looks like they’ll either form govt next month or in four years’ time, replacing the Liberals the same way the Liberals replaced Social Credit thirty years ago. (Canadian politics has these convulsions occasionally.)

    And then, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick. SK is a straight fight between the Saskatchewan Party (centre-right) and the NDP, with other parties not really doing much. Sask Party have been in govt since 2007 with hefty majorities; close to half their current caucus are either resigning or have split to minor right parties, which isn’t usually a good sign. They’re still ahead in the polls, though. NB has had the Conservatives since 2018 and seems to change govt more frequently than some provinces, so the Liberals might win there. Wrong time of the federal cycle to have the name “Liberal”, though.

  3. Eddy, he could have offered more clarity and said “Our intention is to look like we’re doing something while doing nothing and hopefully politically wedging the LNP and the Greens in the process”.

  4. MJ (from last page): If Labor land a few seats short of majority, they’ll probably do something similar to Chris Minns in NSW and try to get some of the independents on board first, assuming that the Greens would rather come along for the ride than put Dutton in charge. People like Andrew Wilkie, Helen Haines, Rebekha Sharkie. Maybe Andrew Gee if he hangs on to Calare.

    Speaking of Calare, I wish Peter Andren was still around.

  5. mj, I think we are of one mind on how we see what a waste of government Albanese is. Unfortunately for him, it’s not just a couple of lefties on pollbludger who think he has “ the fortitude and vision of a jellyfish.” I’ve noticed even the Labor apologists here are becoming disheartened as it becomes obvious what a totally disappointing failure he is.

    The only thing Albanese has got going for him is Dutton.

  6. Bird of Paradox,

    Agree …was fortunate to meet Peter Andren along with John Hatton , Clover Moore, etc at an Independebts gathering in Warringah years ago while trying to get rid of the Abbott.
    Was so impressed by Peter and hope that Andrew Gee might be cut from a similar cloth.
    Have since moved to the South Coast of NSW where Gareth Ward has this weird hold over people…

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