It’s been a while since I last did an update of preselection and related federal election news, in which time the following has accumulated:
• Labor’s national executive anointed candidates a fortnight ago for three usually safe Labor seats in Melbourne whose incumbents will retire at the election. In Bill Shorten’s seat of Maribyrnong, Labor’s candidate will be Jo Briskey, national co-ordinator of the Left faction United Workers Union. Much has been made of the fact that Briskey moved to Melbourne in 2019 after an unsuccessful run for the Brisbane seat of Bonner, and has a backer in Queensland Left heavyweight Gary Bullock.
• The candidate in Brendan O’Connor’s seat of Gorton will be Alice Jordan-Baird, a water policy expert. Earlier reports indicated the preselection was developing into a contest between rival Right faction power bases, with Jordan-Baird the favourite of that associated with Richard Marles and the Transport Workers Union, while the Bill Shorten/Australian Workers Union axis favoured Brimbank mayor Ranka Rasic. State minister Natalie Hutchins, a Shorten ally who was earlier mentioned as a potential contender in Maribyrnong, said Jordan-Baird lacked a connection with the area and was chosen over an “experienced local” in Rasic.
• Basem Abdo, an adviser to outgoing member Maria Vamvakinou and fellow member of the Socialist Left, has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for Calwell. Earlier reports indicated resistance among local party branches to a perceived factional fait accompli, reflecting general discontent around the fact that the party’s national executive has again taken over the Victorian preselection process.
• The Liberals have preselected Tom Venning, a Barunga Grains farming manager who formerly worked for the NAB and Deloitte, as their candidate for the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey. Venning’s uncle, Ivan Venning, was a veteran state member of parliament. Other contenders included Suzanne Waters, a former United Australia Party candidate described by InDaily as “a regional paramedic who reportedly quit her job with SA Health over its COVID vaccination mandate”, who was endorsed by arch-conservative Senator Alex Antic. Also in the field were Kimba mayor Dean Johnson, Whyalla police officer Matt Sampson, and Rikki Lambert, chief-of-staff to ex-Family First Senator Bob Day.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party has preselected Lisa Bayliss, police officer and senior vice-president of the Northern Territory Police Association, as its candidate for the Darwin seat of Solomon, held for Labor by Luke Gosling on a margin of 9.4%. Camden Smith of the Northern Territory News reports the CLP preselection for the other Northern Territory seat of Lingiari, which Labor came close to losing against the trend in 2022, “has been deferred and will be considered by the party’s management committee in coming weeks”.
• There was a brief flurry of early election talk last week after Anthony Albanese suggested a double dissolution election could result if the Coalition and the Greens persisted in blocking the government’s housing bill. The notion is complicated by the fact that a double dissolution cannot take place in the last six months before the term of parliament expires, the relevant date being January 25. To create a trigger, the government would need to follow a rejection of the bill this week with another attempt after a delay of more than three months, which would require that parliament be recalled in late December or January.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Victorian Liberal sources saying their polling has them “in front or neck-and-neck in Aston, Chisholm, McEwen and Goldstein, with Kooyong and Dunkley less likely chances”.
• James Dowling of The Australian reports that Labor in New South Wales will not field candidates in the October 19 New South Wales state by-elections for Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater, respectively being vacated by Liberal members Dominic Perrottet, Matt Kean and Rory Amon.
Wage Theft!!!! Curtin Uni to payback $3.5 million in underpaid wages to staff.
Throw them in jail!!
That’s the correct response? No?
I’m finding it hard to understand how candidates like Robert Knight can think that by changing the wrapping on the present, himself, that the electorate will be fooled into voting for him this time???
Cat
Everyone and their dog are trying to ride the Teal Wave in the ACT election.
Morgan is the most accurate, imo.
Still 8 months to go, anything could turn up, pandemic, WW3, and Albo would be in the catbird seat.
But as it stands, Labor were never ready for Goverment and 2022 was a good election for the Liberal Party to lose.
Rubbish. It was either arrogance or stupidity to unilaterally put a proposal to a referendum without bipartisan support. It has been recognised by many on the Yes side that it was a mistake and has had a major negative impact.
One interpretation is that the Albotross deliberately wanted to lose for the purely political reason of being able to blame the LNP.
One interpretation is that the Albotross deliberately wanted to lose for the purely political reason of being able to blame the LNP.
I go along with that, and it woulda worked against Scotty, Turnbull, Abbott and possibly Howard.
Dutts played it like a Strad, sidelined Julian Leeser and the Wets and made it a Labor versus Rest Of Australia contest.
Labor made gains with racial minorities though.
They’ll be able to cast Dutts as a racist when pitching to Aborigines, Pacific Islanders, Africans, possibly Indians and Indonesians too.
So, it’s too early to say Dutts won and Albo lost, imo.
Anger in heartland and ‘ALP to blame’
A prominent Lebanese Muslim community leader has questioned Penny Wong’s position and said Labor had itself to blame for Muslim voters abandoning it as he encouraged the community to vote with its ‘conscience’.
Wait until they get Dutton as PM. They dont know they’re born.
Arky @ #346 Monday, September 30th, 2024 – 3:16 pm
And that especially applies in the Disability Care industry which my son used to work in. It’s a female dominated industry and they cry out for men to literally do the heavy lifting of disabled clients. So if a male applies and a female applies, then the male will usually get the nod.
And next week Roy Morgan will be 50.5 to 49.5 to labour see you’re all next week
Did COVID-19 break the sniff test?
This is what they will get under Spud:
The Alliance Against Islamophobia has made a complaint against federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton for religious vilification.
Mr Dutton made a comment last month saying it would be a “disaster” if the Labor government were in a minority government that included “Muslim candidates from Western Sydney”.
He was also criticised for not reaching out to the Muslim community since his comments last month.
In a complaint to the anti-discrimination board, the Alliance Against Islamophobia said Mr Dutton’s comment contributed to a “hostile environment for Muslim Australians” and “reinforcing harmful stereotypes about the Muslim community”.
The lack of understanding of polling results – given that this is a psephology site – is somewhat astounding 🙁
Breaking:
Nelson Asofa-Solomona loses judiciary appeal. Not only that, his charge has been upgraded from a four-week to a five-week suspension.
Lindsay Collins, the Roosters’ best forward (QLD’s best forward) took no part in the game. The judiciary gets it right!
Stick it up you, Rex Douglas 🙂
As predicted by Centre!
The weather in Sydney will start to get warmer on Grand Final weekend. Spot on right on target, like usual.
Weather: FINE
Climate: ON TRACK
Pollution: PERFECT
🙂
FUBAR says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 8:32 pm
Confessions says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 8:18 pm
… nevertheless they should be congratulated for bringing the vote in the first place
Rubbish. It was either arrogance or stupidity to unilaterally put a proposal to a referendum without bipartisan support. It has been recognised by many on the Yes side that it was a mistake and has had a major negative impact.
One interpretation is that the Albotross deliberately wanted to lose for the purely political reason of being able to blame the LNP.
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It doesn’t make sense why Albo would want to deliberately lose the referendum, it was meant to be his signature legacy leaving initiative this term and it was an embarrassing loss.
Labor shouldn’t be congratulated either for bringing on the vote when they did – it is out of touch to be pursuing what is not a first order, bread and butter issue when people are struggling during the middle of a cost of living crisis and that has not been properly addressed. Labor just thought after winning the election all they needed to was sing kumbaya, everyone would hold hands in unity and there was no need to properly address substantive everyday issues – makes them look like they’re stuck in an ivory tower.
Albo missed a golden opportunity with the Voice referendum.
It was so obvious at least four weeks before the vote that the NO side was going to win!
Albo could have done a Nathan Cleary (turning certain defeat into victory in last year’s GF) by changing the question to solely recognise Indigenous Australians in the constitution thereby wedging Dutton.
He didn’t do it!
Someone asked: there are 30 odd proscribed terrorist organisations in Australia. 3 are white supremacist and the rest islamic
https://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/what-australia-is-doing/terrorist-organisations/listed-terrorist-organisations
The one area where Labor might see a win of sorts from the Voice is maybe purely a political one in that it’s probably served to further divorce teal seats away from the Liberal party not that it’s won Labor any favours among its own working class voters.
I think the greatest damage done by the Voice defeat was to Albo himself. I do not mean politically but personally. He has not seemed the same since, almost depressed.
I feel sorry for him in that he stuck to his word on the Voice. He was then done over by a cynical opposition and well meaning but incompetent Voice campaigners. They should have stepped back handed over to seasoned campaigners or backed away once it lost momentum.
Regardless, Albo needs to get over it and move on. Depression is contagious.
On the bright side, Dutton remains an idea-less void of negativity, incapable of solving the nations’s problems. Abbott won like that, but really only because Labor lost through the Rudd – Gillard wars. Neither Abbott nor Dutton are worthy leaders.
The two surpluses have been major achievements, and Labor should say so. They come on the back of falling inflation, a rising stock market and high employment.
AUKUS still sucks, but otherwise, the glass is at least half full.
Centre
“ Nelson Asofa-Solomona loses judiciary appeal. Not only that, his charge has been upgraded from a four-week to a five-week suspension.”
Deservedly so. It was a terrible tackle and looked very deliberate.
(I’m not a Penrith fan but if they win now so be it. Collingwood winning after Braydon Maynard got away with cleaning up Brayshaw last year still stinks.)
Socrates
I do agree that Albo does not seem the same since that referendum. As for AUKUS, I believe that we need solid defence (I’m no greenie) but that is a terrible deal.
They are and will always be American submarines (controlling partner). They get to use their submarines in our part of the planet, shielded in our name, and we pay them squillions for it – WOW they saw us coming.
* night
Socrates @ #470 Monday, September 30th, 2024 – 10:24 pm
Yeah, I’m agreed with you on that. It’s been nearly a year since that referendum and Albo’s just been in glum mode ever since then, except in that moment earlier this year when he made the reform of the Stage 3 Tax reforms, which actually had a positive reception.
I just dropped back in to come across this post from Elmer Fudd.
“I put Nadias dummy spit into an algebraic formula after Morgan was late. ANSWER: Get a life outside of election polling, especially junk polling like Morgan. Obviously Rexy boy didn’t get the memo either.”
I call this out as personal abuse. Rex is used to it and soldiers on regardless (although that doesn’t make it ok), but Nadia has previously taken time out from posting after being abused. Nadia is perhaps the most valuable person here. She provides a depth of knowledge and analysis about the polls that is second only to William. She presents no political bias and I have never seen her make a single nasty comment about anyone. This uncalled nasty post from Elmer Fudd has sat here for over two hours without anyone saying a word. Shame.
The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.
Kirsdarke
Yes the Stage 3 Tax reforms was a correct call by Albo and Chalmers. More of that will keep Labor in office.
Night all.
Interesting state libs qld wil be putting labor ahead of Greens.
The Australian tonight.
Dutton will do the same most likely.Will he ask labor to put libs ahead of teals in return?
Labor has put Dole up and boosted over 55s dole regarding below.
“ There are no voters who are going to switch to Labor because Labor are running fiscal surpluses. Whereas if Labor increased all income support payments to $610 a week – something that can be done immediately without inflationary consequences because there’s a lot of spare capacity – that would help a lot of people and help Labor at the next election. The number of people who are directly or indirectly affected by the income support system is large. In addition, there’s a great number of voters who would be vicariously impressed even though it doesn’t affect their individual circumstances.”
Nicholas, from memory, at the end of Frasier’s reign inflation was around 10% and unemployment was also high. His attitude was that “Life wasn’t meant to be easy” and that “dole bludgers” shouldn’t be going to the beach to surf at the tax payers’ expense. And he refused to put up the dole.
One of Bob Hawke’s election promises was to raise unemployment benefits, and upon being elected he did so immediately.
So why won’t Chalmers use his surplus to raise the unemployment benefit for the poorest citizens? I really don’t understand, and I am genuinely asking if anyone here can tell me.
Even if Labor asked voters to put Libs before teals most would probably go against the how to vote not that Labor is likely to recommend this.
Libs preferencing Labor over Greens has always made sense ideologically if not politically.
So why won’t Chalmers use his surplus to raise the unemployment benefit for the poorest citizens? I really don’t understand, and I am genuinely asking if anyone here can tell me.
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Probably because Labor thinks there are few votes to be gained from it. The thinking would be who else are the unemployed going to vote for? They might vote Green but then in most seats they are going to preference Labor so long as they are a step to the left of the LNP. Labor might reconsider if more seats are at risk of being lost to a candidate to their left.
“ Labor might reconsider if more seats are at risk of being lost to a candidate to their left.”
Labor might reconsider if citizens who actually cared about the poor stopped preferencing Labor above anyone but the Liberals – anyone! Labor has lost its way. It has lost its values and its virtues. It has lost everything it has ever proudly stood for. And it has lost its true believers. It now rules arrogantly with a pathetic third of first preferences, relying on the preferences of the true left, whom they despise and mock and blame for their failures.
Citizens who don’t support the status quo need to change the way they vote.
Morgan 51-49 LNP continues the rotating fluctuation of all the current polling. I expect status quo for 3 weeks and then the ACT and QLD elections. If the Labor/Greens unexpectedly lost the ACT and QLD is really bad for Labor, then the polls could move to give the LNP a clear lead federally and Albo will be seriously under the pump. If the ACT holds up for Labor and a respectable result in QLD then the polling should steady for Labor federally. Then it’s either a WA Election in March for the next direction and will Albo put it on the line in late March if he does not want to wait for May.
@Centre: “Albo missed a golden opportunity with the Voice referendum.
It was so obvious at least four weeks before the vote that the NO side was going to win!
Albo could have done a Nathan Cleary (turning certain defeat into victory in last year’s GF) by changing the question to solely recognise Indigenous Australians in the constitution thereby wedging Dutton.
He didn’t do it! ”
You can’t just change the question on a referendum 4 weeks out – it would require legislative change, and a change of timetable to allow for new papers to be printed, new official responses for and against…. Just not feasible.
Albo could potentially have pulled the pin on the referendum proceeding at all, and that was canvassed here on PB at the time but I don’t think anyone could make a case for it helping Albo politically to do it. You’ve already spent the time and most of the money by then, it’s not wise to do all that and then deny people having their say.
Alternatively he could have done what you suggested from the start. But that would obviously not satisfy the promise to implement the Uluru Statement from the Heart and would be one more token gesture to add to the pile. Dutton wouldn’t be wedged, he’d probably have gone along with something that weak.
We won’t know until he’s retired and talks candidly to biographers whether Albo thought the Voice would succeed when he made the promise to do it, and whether the early positive polling – which should go down as an object lesson about the limitations of polling on nebulous concepts not understood well by the general public – played any part in how he ballsed up approaching the thing.
Eddy says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 12:24 am
“ Labor might reconsider if more seats are at risk of being lost to a candidate to their left.”
Labor might reconsider if citizens who actually cared about the poor stopped preferencing Labor above anyone but the Liberals – anyone! Labor has lost its way. It has lost its values and its virtues. It has lost everything it has ever proudly stood for. And it has lost its true believers. It now rules arrogantly with a pathetic third of first preferences, relying on the preferences of the true left, whom they despise and mock and blame for their failures.
Citizens who don’t support the status quo need to change the way they vote.
——————
Sadly I don’t think Labor really would care if you put them second last ahead of the LNP so long as it was an ALP v LNP contest it’s a +1 for them.
I agree Labor is a party that really has lost any sense of values or connection to actual people, it’s just another self-serving political machine and more people are realising this and abandoning them for minors and independents.
Here’s a punt.
I believe the lack of polling from the ACT is that all the companies who poll the ACT are left-wing. They don’t want to publish polling because they don’t like the look of the data. In 2020 there was a poll in early August and the 29 Sept. Nothing so far.
From that I believe the Libs have a quite a primary vote lead over Labor currently and covid was a factor like QLD in 2020 which helped Labor in both elections and is a non-factor this time. Pre polling starts in a week and everyone practically now votes before election day.
I think this election could be a surprise for some people.
New thread.
Arky @ 1.11 am
Yes you can change the question on a referendum. It was obvious, clearly obvious that the YES side was going to lose at least four weeks before the vote.
You change the question to solely recognise Indigenous Australians in the constitution, a position that not only Dutton but the Nats supported, and you DEFER the vote to a time most practicable and allowable. A perfect wedge and certain victory.
Instead, the YES side was headed for a certain defeat. Albo took the risk, they had faith in the Australian people they said. As it turned out, it was the wrong decision.
Boerwarsays:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 6:09 pm
Wasn’t there some sort of deal that the Commies could enter the international trading community but first they had to pay those Tsarist bonds out at face value?
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No idea, but these were regular trades at minimum value!
Dull.