The Australian reports the three-weekly Newspoll has a tie on two-party preferred, unchanged no last time, from primary votes of Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 38%, Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 6% (steady). Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is down two to 37% and steady at 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-37, compared with 45-37 last time. Nothing yet on sample size and field work dates that I can see (UPDATE: Last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1249).
Nine Newspapers also has the quarterly Resolve Strategic aggregates, which are of interest insofar as they include results for Western Australia and South Australia accumulated over three monthly polls, which unlike the larger states are not published with each monthly poll. In Western Australia, the results have Labor down eight points on the 2022 election to 29% but the Coalition steady on 35%, with the Greens up three to 16%. In South Australia, Labor is down seven to 28%, the Coalition is steady at 36% and the Greens are up one to 14%.
In Western Australia, the results have Labor down eight points on the 2022 election to 29% but the Coalition steady on 35%, with the Greens up three to 16%.
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I knew there was a 16 somewhere!
From the previous thread:
steve davis @ #437 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 9:48 pm
If the Greens want Dutton to be PM then they can whinge even more when he makes them obsolete.
He would get his Manager of Government Business to move they no longer be heard. They don’t realise how ruthless he is.
C@t:
I wouldn’t bother. The Greens leader is never going to be PM, so what would be the point?
C@t
Of course he would and there would be nil negotiations either.
“Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is down two to 37% and steady at 52%.”
Labor supporters might discern some ‘green shots’ in that.
However … “Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-37, compared with 45-37 last time.” Marking time on that score (as on 2PP).
Confessions @ #3 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 9:52 pm
He’s out in public so much it would be a good indicator of what the public thinks of him.
Wow the Greens on 16% in WA! No wonder Patrick Gorman is shitting bricks in his seat of Perth.
steve davis @ #4 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 9:53 pm
As long as I’ve observed the interaction between The Greens and the Coalition they’ve always been played like a fiddle by the Coalition.
“If the Greens want Dutton to be PM …”
If … ?
mj @ #7 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 9:54 pm
He thanks them for their preferences.
In real-life election terms, I’d like to add 1% to the LNP on the 2PP which gives them the lead.
Adam Bandt’s Greens have been playing a starring role for the Libs and he will continue to do so up until election day.
If those numbers eventuate the Greens will probably be thanking him for his preferences Cat.
Centre says:
“In real-life election terms, I’d like to add 1% to the LNP on the 2PP which gives them the lead.”
Translation: “I reject your reality and substitute my own!”
Centre: “Adam Bandt’s Greens have been playing a starring role for the Libs and he will continue to do so up until election day.”
On the previous election day, Adam Bandt’s Greens won two seats from the Liberals.
Well may that continue.
C@tmomma @ #6 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 9:54 pm
In my circle of people who are not tuned into politics the Greens are on the nose because they are no longer for the environment.
“Newspoll: Housing crisis hits Labor vote
Primary support for Labor has dipped to the party’s equal lowest levels since the 2022 election, as housing emerges as the most significant cost-of-living”
And if Labor did a slash negative gearing and capital gains policy, they would be crucified by the LNP/ MSM.
Oliver Sutton
If an election was held yesterday, being Saturday, I would say Dutton wins 51- 49.
You have to adjust for the bias which nearly always understates the Coalition vote.
Housing crisis hits Labor vote screams the polls headline to put a pro Liberal spin on another 50-50 2PP result for Newspoll which I predicted based on a guess work just like every punters spin on it here in PB. There could be a myriad of reasons Labor dropped a point but it didn’t go to the Liberals (steady on 38 pv) but the OZ spin it to their preferred flavour of the week narrative. Popcorn ready, fire away Labor critics, what’s your flavour?
Confessions: “In my circle of people who are not tuned into politics the Greens are on the nose because they are no longer for the environment.”
And yet:
“The Australian reports the three-weekly Newspoll has … Greens 13% (up one) …”
“In Western Australia, the
results have … the Greens up three to 16%. In South Australia … the Greens are up one to 14%.”
Maybe your ‘circle of people’ didn’t get the memo?
Centre: “You have to adjust for the bias which nearly always understates the Coalition vote.”
There’s no evidence that the Greens are no longer an environmental party, they still talk about it all the time. They’ve certainly also taken a more socialist turn under Bandt’s leadership but that probably suits the times and (hopefully) places a handbrake on Labor shifting further right.
Griff at 9.29 pm re Jill Stein
Objectively Stein helps Trump. Anybody who recognises the reality of a binary electoral system knows that.
Subjectively Stein probably has a host of problems. However, perceiving a real difference between Netanyahu’s war and Putin’s war is not one of them.
Stein pointed out that the US President could readily stop Netanyahu’s war by demanding a negotiated permanent cease fire or stopping the weapons.
The US President cannot stop Putin’s war except by dealing with the principal war criminal.
There are precedents in Europe, specifically Milosevic. He was deposed not because of NATO’s war with him but despite it.
There was a real chance to end Putin’s war in early April 2022 when he was at his weakest. Boris Johnson buggered that chance, according to Naftali Bennett, the former Israeli PM.
Biden could have over-ruled Johnson and ensured that there was at least a chance to test Putin when he was weakest. Biden played second fiddle to Johnson, the ultimate poser.
Labor in the high ‘two’s” now in WA.
Disaster poll for Labor – lots of seats to defend.
Goodbye Albo.
Does anyone know why the Green vote is increasing in WA?
Vlad
Your the supporter. You tell us all.
The SA Malinauskas Labor government releases its 30 year plan to build 300,000 homes to tackle the housing crisis.
Housing Minister Nick Champion says, “If we want to keep rents low, if we want to keep housing affordability within the grasp of the next generation, we have to start planning now”
And posters here don’t get why I put shit on no guts, no vision Albanese.
And there’s a reason Labor rules in SA in its own right and doesn’t have to make deals with anyone.
Knew labor was on the nose in WA.
All authority went when McGowan walked for labor.
Taking on Stokes via IR law changes is crazy given his media outlets.
Albo has been all over media in WA 28 primary reflection on him personally also.
Seats lost for labor in WA coming.
Greens in WA no leader locally in news me thinks left are parking their vote anything but fed labor!
WA punters put their house prices up over 20% in 2 years in a so called housing crisis and they still whinging and whining . If they want to be brainwashed by their only newspaper , then they’re thicker than I thought.
Vlad, the rental crisis in Perth has been diabolically bad even by Australian standards, rents have been increasing on average 12% per year for the last 4 years and rental vacancy rates were sitting at 0.4% in June though it improved slightly to 1.2% last month. I’m assuming renters have had an absolute gut full of this situation and gone to the Greens.
Centre at 10.07 pm
Tricot stated the obvious, that an election is 6 months away, so minor leads may be a mirage.
While, as Dr Bonham has pointed out, the TPP vote remains important, it is not decisive. Exhibit A: 1998 result.
While waiting for the decisive polling, which will be in Feb, those who believe that marginal voters doubt the government’s achievements may consider what similar electors thought about J.W. Howard in mid 1998.
If Albo got more confident he could still get reelected with a majority because nothing in the polling says Dutton is becoming PM anytime soon.
Labor needs solutions. The solutions needed can be found. Labor can win the election.
What Labor must not do is move remotely closer to Greens’ nut case wishful thinking. They are extremists and dangerous, and it’s very bad news that they occupy the kind of support they do.
The day may come that the Coalition and Labor agree to put the Greens last on HTV cards.
Seen front page of today’s west Australian labor.??
Says it all .
Err Albo is no John Howard.
“This is largely driven by Coalition gains among blue-collar, lower-income groups in the suburbs and regions”.
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They look to have found a new home with the Coalition.
Labor and the Greens are too busy fighting each other for the Inner city.
Pied Piper
Its an LNP rag. Everyone with half a brain knows that.
“ In South Australia, Labor is down seven to 28%, the Coalition is steady at 36% and the Greens are up one to 14%.”
So, in the great state of South Australia, where Labor has dominated since Dunstan, the good citizens think the Albanese government is shit.
I wonder why?
“This is largely driven by Coalition gains among blue-collar, lower-income groups in the suburbs and regions”.
If this lot think Dutton is going to help their end of town then they are deluded.
I’ll tell ya Vlad, it was because Redbridge did the WA polling, not Newspoll. Redbridge can hardly get a national poll right let alone State break downs. But you go ahead and fantasise about 16 % Green voters in WA. It’s bollocks. Have a look at the SA Labor dropping 7 points under a reasonably popular premier,- yeah sure.
pied piper: “Err Albo is no John Howard”
Thank God for that.
Australia’s society and economy couldn’t survive another decade of Howardism.
Anyone still think Chaney is going to hold Curtin?
I’m still open to a substantial wager.
I think Nate will pick up Bullwinkle.
Libs to highly likely take back Curtin and Tagney.
Hasluck and Swan may be in play (Swan is still my Smokey).
NT – both Lingari and Solomon definitely in play for the CLP.
QLD – I think Ryan and Brisbane are winnable for the LNP.
Oliver Sutton says:
Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 10:31 pm
You think strong real wages growth is unsurvivable? Strange.
steve davis says:
Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 10:29 pm
Blue collar in WA make very good money.
Fubar
Have you been betting on the AFL? Not encouraging you to do so but if you had, you’d be winning. I make it 6 out of 8 for you in the final series.
Inflation numbers out this week coming and reserve bank meeting where there will be a massive pile on by every labor supporter to reduce interest rates when the inflation figures most likely reduce due to the trick of electricity rebates.
Chaney back flipped and by her supporting sheep farmers was so obviously poll driven it stuffed her credibility recent poll showed she’s in trouble hence backflip.
Centre: “You have to adjust for the bias which nearly always understates the Coalition vote.”
Kevin Bonham’s ‘Federal Election 2022: Pollster Performance Review’ is a handy primer for beginners.
Three of the five major pollsters reported pre-election 2PPs of 53 to Labor, while two reported 51.
The actual result was 52.
Some credible pollsters understated the Coalition vote by one point, while others overstated it by one point. They break both ways.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/07/federal-election-2022-pollster.html
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseTppByState-27966.htm
And Liberal supporters want inflation numbers to stay higher to help their mate Dutton.
FUBAR: “You think strong real wages growth is unsurvivable? Strange.”
I think continued record-high taxation as a share of GDP, entrenched welfare for the well-off, and foolhardy forays into wars based on lies would be unsurvivable.
Such was the legacy of the Howard era.
I hate to admit it, but John Howard presided over; a booming economy, low inflation, real wage growth, low energy prices, and falling interest rates.
That would come in handy today. Only a Full Mooner Green would not be satisfied.
The independent RBA has a good record of withstanding pressure, that will remain.
Fubar I’m not a gambler but confident Chaney will retain Curtin and the teals in general will retain their seats. These seats are not going to vote for a Dutton led LNP imo. Hasluck is probably in play, doubt Swan will be though Labor will probably haemorrhage a lot of votes to the Greens in Swan. Both NT seats are in play judging by the territory election results, Queensland not sure.
As for Chaney’s position on sheep she may lose support from some voters in her inner urban seat but they will mostly drift to parties to her left, not the LNP. So they’ll mostly come back to her as preferences.
‘Centre’ (sic): You forgot to mention Little Johnny flogging off the family silverware and breaking records with his tax take as a share of GDP.
Not to mention the death and destruction wreaked by the search for the fictitious ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction’.
Bludgertrack is currently sitting at 50-50 evens. {Last update 20/9}
Tonight we have seen the ALP drop another notch, whilst the LNP held steady.
Unless my maths are no good, we will see an LNP 2PP majority when BT is next updated.
This will be the first time this parliamentary cycle.
Upcoming Polls:
* Monday PM – Roy Morgan
* Tues AM – Essential Report
* I believe a Redbridge poll may be looming towards the end of the week. Kos Samaras X feed is the best indicator.
OC – I’ll have a look at the Resolve three monthly poll and get back. I thought for a minute that Resolve may have updated their figures, but they’re not due to drop until Sunday 6-Oct.