Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Labor loses its very slight advantage in Essential Research but keeps it in Roy Morgan.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has both parties up on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 35% and Labor by one to 30%, with the Greens steady on 13%, One Nation up one to 8% and undecided down one to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor and the Coalition tied on 48%, with the balance undecided. Further results show a 69-31 split in favour of the government’s cap on international students, together with various other findings on the theme of education. Fifty-three per cent expressed support for the Future Made in Australia policy, following a question that said it would “provide funding for large-scale renewable energy projects that support the creation of local jobs”, with 18% opposed. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1132.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, out from 50.5-49.5 last time, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down half), Coalition 36.5% (up half), Greens 14.5% (up one-and-a-half) and One Nation 6% (steady). Going off preference flows from the previous election rather than as allocated by poll respondents, Labor’s two-party lead is unchanged at 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1703.

Also, further results from the Resolve Strategic poll indicate remarkable pessimism on interest rates, which 40% expect to go up over the next year compared with only 15% for down and 34% for stay the same. Fifty-one per cent rated that the federal government and the Treasurer had “the greater responsibility for keeping inflation down” compared with 27% for the Reserve Bank and 22% for both equally. A question on gambling advertising found 51% support for banning gambling advertisements on television entirely, with 32% supporting the government’s policy of a cap on two ads per hour during live sports and none during children’s programming.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

286 thoughts on “Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 4 of 6
1 3 4 5 6
  1. “ It’s like Rex’s obsession with defending superannuation lurks and perks. When push comes to shove, self-interest comes slithering out.”

    And again…wilful misinterpretation. I prefer no such thing. I’m just pointing out that human nature will lead to people increasingly choosing the financial needs of themselves and their children over the needs of their aging parents.

    “The report then sets out evidence on the demographic and socio-economic features of the Australian community that are relevant to understanding social dynamics that may influence elder abuse, including intergenerational wealth transfer”

    https://aifs.gov.au/research/research-reports/elder-abuse-understanding-issues-frameworks-and-responses

  2. https://greens.org.au/news/media-release/australian-greens-express-their-solidarity-women-iran

    Heres the Greens… supporting women in protesting against the government of Iran?

    That cant be right, it must have been a once of mistake.

    But wait, here it is again

    https://greens.org.au/news/media-release/greens-call-government-uphold-human-rights-iran

    And again

    https://greens.org.au/news/media-release/political-sponsorship-shaghayegh-khademi-and-mahya-vahedi

    Wait, could it be BW is talking out of his arse like usual?

  3. Why should some old granny who didn’t bother to save for retirement be allowed to keep their home? With the proceeds from selling that home, she could afford to rent from someone who prepared for retirement by buying an investment property.

  4. FUBAR’s cognitive problem is that there can be no doubt at all that the current Israeli Government is actively supporting the expulsion of Palestinians from the West Bank. This is progressive. It is decades in the making. It involves so-called Settler violence with the tacit and active support of the IDF.

    It is genocide in intent and in practice.

    From the River to the Sea.

  5. The Greens sank the best opportunity for real climate action.
    They were all set to do the same with Albanese’s 43/30 initiatives.
    They WANTED to block them.
    By golly they did!
    But the sheer stupidity of a Greens repeat of sinking climate action was too much for the idiot Greens ideologues who WANTED to sink Abanese’s 43/30 initiatives.
    By the way.
    How are Friar Truck and Maid Marion coming along with the action plan to deliver Zero Net Forty?
    Same as Trump’s concepts of a plan type thing?
    Nothing?

  6. The Labor Party is at the point where it should just dissolve itself, so that a proper social democratic party that is fit for purpose can take its place.

  7. Regarding today’s aged care announcement, it seems that the government continues its pattern of trying to be all things to all people and making sure that no-one ‘loses’ – which is why it is increasingly seen as being a weak government.

    The coalition makes winners and losers all the time, but the ALP is never prepared to piss off groups that don’t agree with it, so we end up that the ratchet continually gets wound to the right and things just get worse and worse. The ALP is just ineffective

    Public schools are now massively underfunded but the ALP is too weak to cut funding to private schools as it might piss off those parents, so the situation just gets worse

    Too busy trying to ensure a surplus so health care continues to decline

    On aged care, surely the profit motive is completely inappropriate in the aged care sector, but the ALP are too weak to challenge that gift from Howard so we get more tinkering and a watering down of criminal provisions for neglect

    Weak NACC

    Pissweak environmental laws with promised reforms to the EPBC act shelved (broken election promise) and the EPA watered down rather than talk to the greens

    It’s like the only people the ALP doesn’t mind pissing off are progressives and its own support base

    Hence primary vote starts with a 2 in recent polls

    Excellent, great work, well done Albo

  8. How many Greens supporters, members, activists, staff and MPs were in the riotous assembly that injured dozens of policewomen and policemen?

    What disciplinary action will the Greens Party take against members who undertook riotous affray?

  9. Having successfully dodged the delaying and the blocking actions of the Thug and his Toolie, the Labor Government has enacted another major set of progressive reforms in the Aged Care section.

    Naturally neither the Greens nor the Coalition are happy about Labor’s success.

    They hate that with a passion.

    Well done, Albanese!

  10. “Having successfully dodged the delaying and the blocking actions of the Thug and his Toolie, the Labor Government has enacted another major set of progressive reforms in the Aged Care section.”

    Yes.

    The progressive reforms.

    The progressive reforms passed with the help of the LNP.

    The progressive reforms passed with the help of the LNP that the LNP supposedly arnt happy with.

    Those progressive reforms.

    Right

  11. North Sydney fed seat abolished.Teal Tink looking elsewhere but will not go up against Downhill skier fellow teal.Fin review.

    A record this week 72.2 % of power was generated by renewables in Australia between 11.30 am -12 noon on Monday.

  12. Boerwar: you used to post sensible stuff about Israel but now are slipping into an unimpressive bothsidesism.

    Yes, the continuing encroachment of Israeli settlements on the West Bank is a terrible thing, as are the genocidal statements made by some members of Netanyahu’s cabinet. But, as the recent demonstrations against the continuing war have shown, Israel remains a pluralistic society in which these questions are capable of being worked out at a political level.

    The Gaza under Hamas is a terrorist state that operates as a vassal to a much larger terrorist state in the form of Iran. For as long as Hamas is prepared to keep fighting and to refuse to hand over the remaining hostages, they remain a legitimate military target for Israel. On the other hand, there is no such thing as a legitimate terrorist target, and the October 7 attacks were a horrendous act of terrorism.

    So, in this context, bothsidesism and whattaboutism are imbecilic. Please desist.

  13. MB is right; the fact that Israelis can peacefully demonstrate is important, such as protesting… in support of IDF forces caught having raped political prisoners?

    Also I would be remiss in not noting that even according to the yanks, the biggest stopping point to a deal (including getting the hostages back) has been Netanyahu; hell, he literally had the hamas rep assassinated, and is currently facing protests because his own citizens dont believe he actually wants to get the hostages back.

  14. meher baba says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 6:18 pm
    Boerwar: you used to post sensible stuff about Israel but now are slipping into an unimpressive bothsidesism.

    Yes, the continuing encroachment of Israeli settlements on the West Bank is a terrible thing, as are the genocidal statements made by some members of Netanyahu’s cabinet. But, as the recent demonstrations against the continuing war have shown, Israel remains a pluralistic society in which these questions are capable of being worked out at a political level.

    The Gaza under Hamas is a terrorist state that operates as a vassal to a much larger terrorist state in the form of Iran. For as long as Hamas is prepared to keep fighting and to refuse to hand over the remaining hostages, they remain a legitimate military target for Israel. On the other hand, there is no such thing as a legitimate terrorist target, and the October 7 attacks were a horrendous act of terrorism.

    So, in this context, bothsidesism and whattaboutism are imbecilic. Please desist.

    ________

    To use the term “On the other hand” in an argument also saying bothsidesism is imbecilic is delightful 🙂

  15. “Yes, the continuing encroachment of Israeli settlements on the West Bank is a terrible thing, as are the genocidal statements made by some members of Netanyahu’s cabinet. But, as the recent demonstrations against the continuing war have shown, Israel remains a pluralistic society in which these questions are capable of being worked out at a political level.

    The Gaza under Hamas is a terrorist state that operates as a vassal to a much larger terrorist state in the form of Iran. For as long as Hamas is prepared to keep fighting and to refuse to hand over the remaining hostages, they remain a legitimate military target for Israel. On the other hand, there is no such thing as a legitimate terrorist target, and the October 7 attacks were a horrendous act of terrorism.”

    Yeah nah.
    The actions of Oct 7 were terrible. But what Israel has done, before and after are worse.
    The actions of both sides will not lead to peace.

    “Israel remains a pluralistic society in which these questions are capable of being worked out at a political level.”
    This doesn’t mean they can kill their way to success. Why should we wait for them to sort out that killing people endlessly is bad. What we’re asking for is for our Government to stop helping them

  16. I haven’t had much good to say about the Albanese Government lately, but I’m highly impressed by the age care reforms. They strike the right balance between requiring people who have the resources to contribute a bit more to the cost of their care, without moving to a totally means-tested system, which would be horizontally inequitable (because some old people die before they need care and others live longer and require a great deal of care). And bravo to Annika Wells and others for successfully negotiating support for these measures from the Coalition.

    And, dare I say, well done to the Coalition for agreeing to support them.

    It’s a good day for public policy IMO.

  17. Astrobleme: “Why should we wait for them to sort out that killing people endlessly is bad. ”
    ————————————————————————–
    When are Islamic terrorists such as Hamas going to sort out that killing people endlessly is bad? Not to mention pack raping them.

  18. Meher Baba

    “When are Islamic terrorists such as Hamas going to sort out that killing people endlessly is bad? Not to mention pack raping them.”

    Yes it is all terrible. So lets stop picking sides and find a way through this.
    Lets get to work to stop this.
    It’s not ‘both siderism’ when it IS both sides.

  19. Oh for the days of the moratorium. The funny thing is that so few posters are directly involved in this issue. It is strange that it invokes such passion. I couldn’t understand in Year 8 history why the Crusades were able to attract such fervour in Medieval Europe. I still don’t today.

  20. The problem with getting down into the weeds is this: If your vision is genocide then ultimately any behaviour is acceptable.

    Both Iran plus and Israel have a genocidal vision.

    This will end in mushroom clouds.

  21. When are Islamic terrorists such as Hamas going to sort out that killing people endlessly is bad? Not to mention pack raping them.

    Its funny because you can replace Islamic terrorists such as Hamas with IDF and its just as valid… but hey, even by the IDFs own figures 2 in 3 kills are certainly civilians, and by non IDF and non Gazan hamas figures its more like 80 to 90 percent.

    You are right in saying its hardly bothsideism, because one side is backed by the unlimited (Biden has provided arms at a rate never before seen and Harris doesnt look to change) support of the most powerful military in human history, and the other side… is backed by Iran? Scary

  22. Griff: “To use the term “On the other hand” in an argument also saying bothsidesism is imbecilic is delightful”
    —————————————————————————-
    Fair cop.

    But it was more of a failure of wording rather than an act of hypocrisy, as I wasn’t really weighing up two different arguments. I was comparing the wickedness of Israel’s actions with that of Hamas.

  23. meher baba says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 6:30 pm
    Griff: “To use the term “On the other hand” in an argument also saying bothsidesism is imbecilic is delightful”
    —————————————————————————-
    Fair cop.

    But it was more of a failure of wording rather than an act of hypocrisy, as I wasn’t really weighing up two different arguments. I was comparing the wickedness of Israel’s actions with that of Hamas.

    ________

    I won’t agree or disagree with your argument. There are only losers with respect to the Middle East. But I chuckled when I read your post and was moved to comment 🙂

  24. “The funny thing is that so few posters are directly involved in this issue. It is strange that it invokes such passion.”

    For the past year, anyone with an account on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok etc has had their feeds bombarded with footage of Palestinian children getting shredded to pieces while IDF soldiers twerk over the dead bodies with impunity. It’s unsurprising that people are upset and angry about this.

  25. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 6:02 pm
    I feel the body shaming comments from Steggall yesterday will electorally damage her.

    There are plenty of unhealthy fat people out there to take offence.

    I am unhealthily fat but I don’t take offence because I know it is unhealthy for me and it looks terrible, and I am working on it.

  26. Bonza says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 6:34 pm

    For the past year, anyone with an account on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok etc has had their feeds bombarded with footage of Palestinian children getting shredded to pieces while IDF soldiers twerk over the dead bodies with impunity.

    WTF?

    Citation needed.

  27. “The funny thing is that so few posters are directly involved in this issue. It is strange that it invokes such passion. ”

    Thats… a concerning statement to make, considering that implies that unless it directly affects you, you dont care.

    I dont suppose you were old enough to march in the anti Iraq/Afghanistan marches back in the day, and certainly nothing older then that.

  28. Bonza says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 6:34 pm
    “The funny thing is that so few posters are directly involved in this issue. It is strange that it invokes such passion.”

    For the past year, anyone with an account on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok etc has had their feeds bombarded with footage of Palestinian children getting shredded to pieces while IDF soldiers twerk over the dead bodies with impunity. It’s unsurprising that people are upset and angry about this.

    _________

    Is that it? Is social media the Medieval equivalent of Sunday Mass?

  29. Lordbain says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 6:22 pm

    …he literally had the hamas rep assassinated

    Killing Hamas terrorists is now bad.

    Noted.

  30. Boerwar must be doing a lot correctly. Rather than the Greens living in his head, it is the other way round. Don’t panic yet you Greens. There is still time for your blocking and grandstanding to work. Dutton is depending on you.

  31. Hey FUBAR, you might need to remind me… the IRA were completely dead and gone during the Sunday Peace negotiations right?

    Wait, they werent?! And that it turned out the only way to lasting peace was getting everyone to the table and hashing it out?

    No way, it cant be.

    I am sure once they kill every Hamas member (with a generaous ratio of 1 out of 3 civies, and more likely 1 out of 9 civies) peace will be had!

  32. Lordbain says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 6:38 pm
    “The funny thing is that so few posters are directly involved in this issue. It is strange that it invokes such passion. ”

    Thats… a concerning statement to make, considering that implies that unless it directly affects you, you dont care.

    I dont suppose you were old enough to march in the anti Iraq/Afghanistan marches back in the day, and certainly nothing older then that.

    ____________

    Well yes I was a speck in a few 2003 protests. But that was about Australia becoming involved. Not quite the same Lordbain. At least not to me.

  33. Lordbain says:

    I am sure once they kill every Hamas member (with a generaous ratio of 1 out of 3 civies, and more likely 1 out of 9 civies) peace will be had!
    __________
    I usually don’t comment on this issue but it’s obvious to me that for every house in Gaza destroyed you can count on at least 1 future member of Hamas.

Comments Page 4 of 6
1 3 4 5 6

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *