Two new federal polls have emerged in the past few days, both showing Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred. RedBridge Group’s results are an improvement for Labor on their last poll in mid-July, which had the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (down three) and Greens 12% (up one). The accompanying release has results to an array of further questions, including a finding that 32% support visas for Palestinians fleeing Gaza, with 44% opposed; and 72% support for a total ban on online gambling advertising, with 16% opposed; and a mixed bag of favourable and neutral results on AUKUS. The poll was conducted August 20 to 27 from a sample of 2017.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down one on the primary vote to 30.5%, the Coalition down two to 37.5%, the Greens steady at 13% and One Nation up two to 6%. The 50.5-49.5 two-party result compares with a 51-49 Coalition lead last week. The two-party result based on 2022 election preference flows has the Labor lead at 51-49, after a 50-50 result last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
Douglas and Milko says Thursday, September 5, 2024 at 8:17 pm
I know the cherry picking fallacy is a reasoning fallacy rather than a logical fallacy, but I thought it worth providing an example highlighted by Sabine Hossenfelder:
Headline-Making Report Full Of Mistakes: Coal Better Than Gas?
Unless an incumbent Government is performing exceptionally well, voters are hammering them come election time.
This seems to be a new pattern worldwide and it doesn’t matter where they are on the political spectrum. So left, right or centre parties are not safe.
I think this lashing out by communities is the result of unfairness everywhere. COVID broke all the established norms with massive payments to sections of the community to keep everything afloat resulting in nations being swamped with debt. Shortages sent prices through the roof and they have not dropped. Many nations cannot house their middle income families.
We have a situation in Australia where 25% of asx 200 companies pay zero tax. What are the numbers paying less than 10%, or 20%. We have our senior political leaders using tax havens to also hide wealth. The Internationals use every trick allowed by the Tax office to minimise their contributions. Corporations and the very wealthy have everything stashed away in tax havens and always have their hand out for more.
The end result for many countries is lack of funds for Government provided services.
Although everything being done is probably legal, I think everyone can smell a rat. Somewhere. I think. Whoever I can rail against will cop it even if they are not the cause of the problem.
Russians are refusing to fight for their country. Those conscripted want to surrender. USA is a country at war with itself. UK has wealth in London, rest of the Nation is bankrupt. etc etc etc
@Irene
Rudd for all his faults was easily the most capable Labor PM this century. Albo has so far proven himself to be ineffectual – no matter how likeable a person he may be he looks an empty suit with no convictions and there seems to be no direction or point to his PM’ship. Surely Labor should realise by now that it does not serve their party political interests, and more importantly people, to just try and be a more polite version of the LNP. Even if Labor decide to put forward a much bolder agenda at the next election there will be doubt in many voters minds because of the lack of anything achieved in this term.
New thread.
https://chaser.com.au/general-news/gambling-reform-labor-to-ban-cheap-parma-tuesdays-at-local-pokies/