Two new federal polls have emerged in the past few days, both showing Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred. RedBridge Group’s results are an improvement for Labor on their last poll in mid-July, which had the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (down three) and Greens 12% (up one). The accompanying release has results to an array of further questions, including a finding that 32% support visas for Palestinians fleeing Gaza, with 44% opposed; and 72% support for a total ban on online gambling advertising, with 16% opposed; and a mixed bag of favourable and neutral results on AUKUS. The poll was conducted August 20 to 27 from a sample of 2017.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down one on the primary vote to 30.5%, the Coalition down two to 37.5%, the Greens steady at 13% and One Nation up two to 6%. The 50.5-49.5 two-party result compares with a 51-49 Coalition lead last week. The two-party result based on 2022 election preference flows has the Labor lead at 51-49, after a 50-50 result last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
meher baba,
No such luck! Just some guy whose name is Bill Haydon (not Bill Hayden 😉 )
HH, oh look, Labor being the best friend to the gas industry, and throwing the environment under the bus… because we need more gas! We simply dont have enough… to sell overseas and then buy back.
wran, the government cant use its powers against the RBA because that would just not be sporting. No no, the treasurers reforms need to be agreed upon, so that when the RBA tanks the economy, he can shrug and say “wish I could do something, but its out of my hands… because of a reform I demanded was agreed upon”
What a joke..,
C@t:
I hope you can prevail, although I understand why you don’t want to.
Good to see you fighting the good fight Cat despite the odds being against you. No doubt you will go get em till the siren sounds and delight in your comrades getting a council seat. Well played.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Thursday, September 5, 2024 at 7:24 pm
Tanya Plibersek has defied her own department and swiftly ruled out any new review of oil and gas projects in the Timor Sea, after the detection of a rare sea snake near Woodside’s $US20bn ($29.74bn) Browse gas project sparked a call for urgent intervention from her team of expert scientific advisers.
The dusky sea snake, which is almost exclusively found in the waters of Scott Reef, above the Browse project’s Torosa gas field, was formally declared endangered after scientific advisers to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water made the declaration this week.
The conservation advice from the advisers calls for action to address the impacts from the local fossil fuel industry, saying there needs to be an urgent review of all oil and gas activities across the Browse Basin and the Timor Sea to determine whether the known and potential impact on the snake were being adequately considered and avoided.
“It is critical a precautionary and nature-positive context is applied to addressing known, likely, and potential impacts to the dusky sea snake, particularly in relation to regulation of the local fossil fuel industry and other activities that are driving climate change,” the conservation advice says.
The Environment Minister in a statement to The Australian made it clear that the findings would not prompt a fresh review of oil and gas projects in the region. “This is simply advice from a committee established by John Howard. “It doesn’t dictate government action or decision-making in any way,” she said.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/sea-snakes-endangered-declaration-sparks-call-to-halt-woodside-energys-browse-gas-project/news-story/83b94a13a09c7da7389ebcfe0442bebd?amp‘
———————
This is interesting from a legal point of view. Possibly.
Had the Dusky Sea Snake been listed while the Woodside application process was in train, Plibersek would have been legally obliged to take the Dusky Sea Snake into account when making her decision. In this case the the listing was done after the relevant decision had been made.
With Australia’s ever growing list of endangered species many, many current developments (including suburbs where most of us live) are now within the distribution and in the habitat of endangered species. Practically all of Australia’s built environment would need to be re-assessed on the basis of the above advice.
Is Howard ever going to do us a favour and STFU?
That would be a no puffy. He and the Ruddster have relevance deprivation disease.
I still get PTSD from The Howard years. Living through that was bad enough, although for those asylum seekers who came by boat, it was much much worse. Howard cost many of them their freedom, their teenage years, health, sanity and for some even their lives.
How that miserable barsted has never been held to account for that, along with Minister Scott Morrison is a shame on Australia.
And that illegal Iraq war.
Damn the both of them to Hell everlasting.
Labor preferences got CLP up against Greens in Fannie Bay.
https://ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/current-elections/2024-territory-election/results
It’s taken a while, but L-NP preferencing Labor over the Greens is paying off.
Elmer,
At least Rudd is intelligent! But yeh, Julia Gillard has the grace to leave politics to the politicians now she is not one.
Main drivers of inflation in order:
1. Housing / rents
2. Electricity / gas prices.
3. Insurance costs.
4. Various vendors putting up prices because they can
…..
9999. Wage increases
There have been some wage increases recently after years of stagnation, barely keeping up or not keeping up with price increases. It is NOT the sole responsibility of wage earners to sort out inflation.
Elmer Fudd @ #699 Thursday, September 5th, 2024 – 7:30 pm
Thanks. I joined the team to get us above the line after the Libs debacle. They’re below the line as a result. 🙂
Confessions @ #698 Thursday, September 5th, 2024 – 7:28 pm
I have a few friends voting for me below the line at #1. But it won’t be enough. 😀
Puffy:
Good to see you commenting. This place needs more women commenters, so please stick around.
Former contributor Nath seemed to be obsessed with Shorten at the time of the 2019 Federal election. I found his comments verged on the creepy.
Oh, I see someone earlier quoting from the Oz newspaper on Shorten’s departure.
Why anyone thinks quoting slabs from the self-admitted and open Liberal Party supporting publication has any credibility surprises me. Still, I guess the Liberal Monkey Pod likes this stuff.
What Israel and our media hides.
https://youtu.be/XF8wgoXZT1E
C@t
While I am a Green supporter good on you for standing for election.
sealion, from before.
Add “appeal to Authority”.
And, as a public service, I link to the “Thou shall not commit logical fallacies” guide:
C@t:
With no Liberals you never know!
What’s Abu Ghraib got to do with it??
Plus, I would imagine the stripping of the men to their grundies is to make sure none are wearing suicide vests.
Puffy
The NDIS is a huge amount of money which has cost us dearly. The intention was good but it’s a basket case work in progress.
And that’s from a doctor who has a child with multiple disabilities. It’s hardly a great policy.
And there was little difference between Turnbull and Shorten as PM.
Confessions @ #714 Thursday, September 5th, 2024 – 8:17 pm
No Greens! Two Liberals, below the line. And, no Greens is the advantageous bit. 🙂
Anyhoo, back to the slog. I have 10 questions to answer for the local Mountain Bikers demographic. Yesterday it was questions for the SMH. I’m mentally and physically exhausted!
On the topic of logical fallacies
Argument from fallacy (also known as the fallacy fallacy) – the assumption that, if a particular argument for a “conclusion” is fallacious, then the conclusion by itself is false.
I’m not sure how it is relevant that advisers calling for further review of environmental considerations in light of new evidence were appointed by Howard, as Plibersek is reported to have reflected.
Is the suggestion that they are Liberal Fifth Columnists seeking to undermine a Labor government by… seeking to ensure the environment is protected? That wouldn’t, on the face of it, appear very ‘on brand’.
Tricot says:
Thursday, September 5, 2024 at 8:09 pm
Former contributor Nath seemed to be obsessed with Shorten at the time of the 2019 Federal election. I found his comments verged on the creepy.
____________________
Oh Absolutely! It was a crazed obsession that stands in stark contrast to how Scumo and the Reichspotato have been moderately critiqued here.
Rewi, its the classic argument of “they are not us, and therefore not to be trusted”.
Its not about the argument, but who makes it
I have 10 questions to answer for the local Mountain Bikers demographic.
_______________________________
Do you want a copy of my answers?
“ Mr Howard told The Australian. “They have got extreme positions on foreign policy, extreme positions on economic policy, extreme positions on social policy. Who knows what some of their social views are. They’re so extreme.”
Is Boerwar actually John Howard?
No.
‘Rewi says:
Thursday, September 5, 2024 at 8:35 pm
I’m not sure how it is relevant that advisers calling for further review of environmental considerations in light of new evidence were appointed by Howard, as Plibersek is reported to have reflected.
Is the suggestion that they are Liberal Fifth Columnists seeking to undermine a Labor government by… seeking to ensure the environment is protected? That wouldn’t, on the face of it, appear very ‘on brand’.’
———————————
I am not particularly taken by that particular part of Plibersek’s response! In any case, the Committee seems to be behaving more like a Greens committee than a Howard committee.
Several elements of the reported advice are distinctly odd. The Committee’s (reported) advice looks to be a bit of an ambit claim grab bag. The advices are usually much tighter. Climate change is not a trigger under the EPBC Act. The (reported) advice being for the whole of the Timor Sea when a limited number of reefs are at question is also odd.
This is not a new issue. Listed species are increasing all the time as the Anthropocene Extinction Event rolls right along.
The economic problem is potentially total investment uncertainty and an accelerating per capita recession. A company can spend years and millions nursing an application to a decision and then shortly after the decision find that a species is listed and you have to start the whole thing again.
This generates the paradox that the Greens are promising to build a million new homes but are routinely against housing developments because of koalas, finches and the like. The Greens are apparently unaware of this paradox.
The nexus between listed species and development applications and indeed existing developments is in the nature of a wicked problem. The more people we get the more developments we require. We have an increasing number of listed species.
Eddy
Self-awareness is not a strong point of the Greens.
How are the Greens extreme?
40% company tax is the highest company tax in the world. It is that extreme.
Zero Net Forty would require a complete retooling of the economy in less than 15 years. It is that extreme.
Closing down Australia’s irrigated industries is extreme.
Backing one side in the ME only, the side that has the genocidal Khamenei as its spiritual leader, financier, armer and trainer, is extreme.
Freezing rent for two years, forcing five year rental agreements and capping rental increases to 2% per year thereafter is extreme.
Getting rid of all of the ADF’s heavy weapons is extreme.
Rewi: “I’m not sure how it is relevant that advisers calling for further review of environmental considerations in light of new evidence were appointed by Howard, as Plibersek is reported to have reflected.
Is the suggestion that they are Liberal Fifth Columnists seeking to undermine a Labor government by… seeking to ensure the environment is protected? That wouldn’t, on the face of it, appear very ‘on brand’.”
—————————————————————————–
Indeed. Very poor form by Plibersek. The Threatened Species Committee (which I assume is the one in question here) is a bunch of highly-qualified scientists. Concerns about the dusky sea snake have been around for a while.
The protection of threatened species is not an area of government activity urgently in need of an injection of political partisanship.
Endangered species and the Greens would make an interesting study.
With the rise of the Greens the Coalition decided to make a virtue of mocking endangered species protection. It believes it gains votes by making this contrast perfectly clear. In government the Coalition systematically undercut endangered species actions. One of its ministers had (has) questions to answer in relation to clearing of an endangered ecosystem. And so on and so forth.
Most of the people who were very concerned about endangered species went to the Greens. Their votes went out of play. This has resulted in 35 years of the Greens fighting local and regional developments, usually to no avail. The positions taken by the Greens have nearly always been anti-development. The language is often nasty. The Greens opponents are nearly always cast as being nasty while the Greens have been white knights.
This left Labor. It has no hope of gaining endangered species voters. They have been locked up by the Greens. It does not want to be a biodiversity destroyer such as the Coalition.
It wanted to revise the EPBC Act but it was made clear during the consultation phase that both the Coalition and the Greens would oppose any imaginable reform package. The result mirrors the general stasis in endangered species conservation.
The wedge is on and has been on for 35 years. Endangered species politically suit both the Coalition and the Greens.
Before the creation of the Greens there were agreements between Labor and the conservation movement that made huge gains for endangered species.
Since the creation of the Greens political party that has gone completely.
There is an excellent case to argue that the rise of and rise of listed endangered species and the rise of the Greens vote is not a correlation but a matter of direct causation.
‘meher baba says:
Thursday, September 5, 2024 at 9:08 pm
….
The protection of threatened species is not an area of government activity urgently in need of an injection of political partisanship.’
—————
Really, MB, I know you like trotting out ‘considered’ opinions that routinely slag Labor but that one takes the cake! As if threatened species is not a huge area of political partisanship by the Greens and the Coalition ALREADY!
“The reduction of pirates roughly corresponds to the highest recorded temperature… global temperature rise is caused by an acute lack of pirates.”
https://geoscienceinfo.com/pirates-and-geo-ethical-privateers/#:~:text=In%20the%20graph%2C%20the%20average,(and%20my%20favourite%20part).
Yeh MB, how dare you say something as spiteful as… the system designed to bring attention to threatened species shouldn’t be ignored willy nilly
Holdenhillbilly @ #699 Thursday, September 5th, 2024 – 7:25 pm
Is Boerwar actually John Howard?
It would explain a few things.
Lordbain @ #702 Thursday, September 5th, 2024 – 7:26 pm
Weep for your country.
Alpha Zero @ #722 Thursday, September 5th, 2024 – 8:39 pm
Do you have COSS Lands to consider?
“Is Boerwar actually John Howard?”
No, for his many faults, Howard was never as obnoxious, repetitive and utterly dull as Boerwar.
Who hates the greens more; Howard or BW
BW: “Really, MB, I know you like trotting out ‘considered’ opinions that routinely slag Labor but that one takes the cake! As if threatened species is not a huge area of political partisanship by the Greens and the Coalition ALREADY!”
—————————————————————————-
I don’t recall either party having a go at the public service advisers in a personal way like Plibersek did today. (I think she thought she was being funny, but it didn’t come across very well.)
Diogenes
I know the NDIS was not Shorten’s idea.
I know one if the diability advocates who sat around the table with him, in opposition, discussing what the disability sector wanted. They wanted a national, taxpayer-funded scheme.
To Shorten’s credit he listened. He did a lot more consultation and from a newbie who knew nothing a out disability, he educated himself.
I Rene.ber the first rime my friend remarked that Shorten had mentioned people with disabilities in a speech about another topic. It was not something she had seen from our federal pollies before.
Now the NDIS that we have is not great and hasn’t ro be fixed.
I do know problems arose when states pulled funding from state programs ‘because the NDIS can do that’. even though many of the users of state programs would never qualify for the NDIS. Especially people with mental health conditions were left out in the cold.
I know people for whom the NDIS works well, and some do too well. I know one family who got their gutters fixed on the very expensive home because their adult intellectually disabled adult son lived with them! (A few years ago now).
And for others it’s a nightmare.
A decade or more of Lib sabotage and provider blood-sucking has not helped.
But flawed or not, the NDIS is here and there is social acceptance that such a scheme should exist. That is thousands of miles ahead of where disability sat in the community’s outlook when Shorten sat at that table in Adelaide.
At least now there is an NDIS to improve.
And it’s time the states realised the NDJS is for the most in need, it’s nit there to let the states off the funding hook.
Shorten would have to be better than Turnbull or at least not worse.
If Shorten was the PM instead of Turnbull our NBN would not have been sabotaged simply to to protect Murdoch’s Foxtel.
Funny thing about that, I don’t subscribe to Foxtel, or the MSM (except for ABC and SBS) but I get my Korean and other Asian Dramas online from Rakuten Viki and Netflix, and Netflix for other countries’ shows and online for news. (I love Kdrama and JDrama).
All my viewing is online and Foxtel et al can whistle Dixie.
I am sorry the NDIS is not helping you. I will continue to advocate for its improvement. I would even welcome a increase in rh.e NDIS levy so it can help a broader range of people as long as a strong independent regulatory body does the job of policing it.
Ir must be getting near tome for a SA Chapter Knees Up!
“What Israel and our media hides.”
What have the Israelites ever done for us?
https://youtu.be/Qc7HmhrgTuQ
“This Land is Mine”:
https://youtu.be/-evIyrrjTTY
https://blog.ninapaley.com/2012/10/01/this-land-is-mine/
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, September 5, 2024 at 9:39 pm
Alpha Zero @ #722 Thursday, September 5th, 2024 – 8:39 pm
I have 10 questions to answer for the local Mountain Bikers demographic.
_______________________________
Do you want a copy of my answers?
Do you have COSS Lands to consider?
_______________
No but I have been across the stuff that the Warburton (Vic) group have had to go through…
Having a look at the historical responses from your local MP for the region David Harris, it looks like he has a good grip of this issues in the area – this was from a response he had back in 2023:
***********************************
Do you believe that mountain biking as a recreation is appropriate in natural areas?
Mountain biking is a fantastic physical and economic pursuit and should include natural tracks and constructed parks.
National parks have an established Cycling Policy which Labor supports.
Do you support dedicated mountain bike single trail networks being located in national parks?:
I support having dedicated mountain bike single trail networks identified in plans of management which recognises the types of protected areas to ensure safe and equitable use of National Parks. (Such tracks should conform to the Australian Mountain Bike Trail Guidelines)
If elected will your government provide funding to continue the process of providing dedicated single trail mountain bike trails in national parks?:
NSW Labor will have a dedicated Minister for active transport and would work with the Minister responsible for National Parks to determine funding opportunities for the extension and maintenance of dedicated single trails.
Do you support dedicated single trail mountain bike networks being located on Council managed bushland and COSS lands?:
If elected we would ensure that plans of management for Council managed land would include access for mountain bikes in consultation with environmental groups and bike users. Any plan of management should ensure that endangered ecological communities and Aboriginal artifacts are properly protected.
If elected will you and your government assist Central Coast Council in obtaining funding to carry out ecological/ cultural heritage surveys and to fund the construction of a formal single trail network within Council managed bushland?:
If elected we would be working with Council on a range of opportunities to receive funding for nominated significant projects. Priority would be given to projects that benefit the highest number of people and have identified health, economic and social outcomes.
Any further comments regarding your position on mountain bikers and mountain biking are welcome:
I have always been a strong supporter of mountain biking and would continue to advocate for better facilities and access for mountain bike users, including mountain bike tourists because there are identifiable strong economic outcomes. It is also a very healthy pursu.it and allows our natural resources to be complementary of health outcomes. As the potential Minister for Tourism if Labor forms government I have recognised the successful use of mountain biking, bike trails and cycling as a driver for economic and social outcomes in particularly in regional NSW.
_____________________________________
In short, put the consideration for trails into 3 piles:
Yes – Go for it.
No way (too environmentally sensitive, aboriginal artifacts, etc)
Maybe – might require re-routing or a particular treatment in various locations.
Try to have the network make use of the existing trails as much as possible for access and do minimal disruption to vegetation wherever possible.
Puffy
“ I am sorry the NDIS is not helping you.”
I’m sorry if I gave that impression. It has helped but the cost of getting anything done is pretty enormous to the family and presumably the taxpayer. It has improved services a bit but the extra bureaucracy is a big disincentive. My wife has worked in the NFP area for years and can navigate the bureaucracy but a lot would give up.
Turnbull was the greatest Prime Minister we never had.
I’m pretty sure Plibersek’s reference to the committee being established by Howard was intended to head off attacks on it by the right. You know the type, red tape gone mad, greenies controlling the process etc etc.
She was not suggesting they are a “Liberal Fifth Column”.
“Turnbull was the greatest Prime Minister we never had.”
Ummmmm….
“And there was little difference between Turnbull and Shorten as PM.”
Ummmm…..
Are some of you a bit confused on your recent history this evening and who actually won certain elections?
(Yes yes RD, I get that you were joking about Turnbull’s lack of achievement. Not sure about the other comment there though).
Puffytmd says:
Thursday, September 5, 2024 at 7:48 pm
Elmer,
At least Rudd is intelligent! But yeh, Julia Gillard has the grace to leave politics to the politicians now she is not one.
——————-
Rudd was always more popular with voters. Winning 83 electorates, including 16 in Queensland ( how many has Labor now?) in 2007.
And his popularity had Labor 52:48 LNP a couple of weeks before the Faceless men (Shorten, Farrell, and others now not in parliament) coup in June 2010.
Labor won 43.3% of the vote in 2007. Now it hovers around 30 -32%.
But popularity with voters was of no importance when those involved in the coup thought Rudd’s policies were not the direction they thought Labor should be heading.
That is Liberal Lite, keeping most of Howard’s support of business running most policies – aged care, child care, private schools, health insurers, Job providers, NDIS,….And the support of US marines stationed in Darwin.
Really this and other US bases/roles in Australia is unacceptable. Including the 8billion work at the Perth Stirling Naval base to take US nuclear powered subs, radioactive waste….
As Keating has said ‘the biggest waste of money in all history’. And losing our independence to the USA with submarines that will always belong to them. If needed in a confected war against China.
The advantage for Shorten here – businesses running services – is these businesses may donate to Labor as a thank you. This was Howard’s plan – all businesses want the security of taxpayer money. Australians needs, usually lower income people’s needs, less important.
So Labor’s popularity dropped from the day of the coup, first in. 2010 Labor lost 11 electorates. And the voters weren’t finished at the 2013 election, or in 2016 and 2019. And here we are again with low Labor support from Australians.
Rudd may have had faults but was always more popular than Gillard or Shorten during the Gillard PM years. It was too late by the time Shorten restored Rudd to the PM role in mid 2013.
The lesson for Labor? A popular PM should not be removed for the ambitions of other Labor MPs. So who would replace Albanese when he chooses to step down?
At least Shorten won’t be there to do to Albanese what he did to Rudd. That at least is a relief.