NSW by-elections: Epping, Hornsby, Pittwater

There are now three state by-elections looming for blue-ribbon Liberal seats in Sydney, that latest arising after Pittwater MP Rory Amon promptly resigned from parliament after being charged with child sex offences on Friday. Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reports it is “likely to be scheduled alongside other by-elections on October 19”, and that “most Liberals were resigned to losing the seat” – presumably to teal independent Jacqui Scruby, who came within 0.7% of winning the seat when Amon succeeded Rob Stokes at the 2023 election.

Megan Gorrey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Stokes has thrown his support behind Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn, who was touted in a report last week as a possible challenger to teal independent Sophie Scamps in the federal seat of Mackellar, though she has not publicly identified herself as a contender in either case. Another name to have emerged is Michael Gencher, a council colleague of Ryburn’s and fellow victim of the party’s nominations fiasco. Others are familiar from the contest to succeed Stokes before the last election: Natasha Maclaren-Jones, an upper house member who withdrew as it became apparent she lacked sufficient support; and Claire Longley, EY consultant and daughter of former member Jim Longley, who was refused an exemption from a party rule barring nominees who had not been financial members for six months. (UPDATE: The Manly Daily reports Ryburn, Longley, Gencher and another Northern Beaches councillor, Bianca Crvelin, have nominated for Liberal preselection, while the Sydney Morning Herald reports Jacqui Scruby has confirmed she will run again).

As noted in a previous post, the other two by-elections will be held to replace Dominic Perrottet in Epping, where the Liberals have preselected Monica Tudehope, former policy director to Perrottet and daughter of Damien Tudehope, a former member for the seat who now leads the party in the Legislatve Council; and Matt Kean in Hornsby, where the new Liberal candidate is Corrs Chambers Westgarth lawyer James Wallace. Labor reduced the margins at the 2022 election to 4.8% in Epping with a 6.5% swing, and to 8.0% in Hornsby with an 8.8% swing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe