Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)

Both leaders down on net approval in the latest Newspoll, the Coalition only slightly favoured over Labor on inflation, and little change on voting intention.

The Australian reports that Newspoll has a tied result on two-party preferred, unchanged on three weeks ago. The primary votes are Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 54%, his equal worst net result as Prime Minister, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up two to 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-39 to 45-37. The poll also finds “only a quarter” connsider inflation would be lower under the Coalition, with 18% believing it would be higher and 41% opting for neither. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1263.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

798 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. William Bowesays:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 9:24 pm
    Katyn Forest Massacre, Soviets slaughtered 20,000 Polish Officers, blamed the Wehrmacht.
    The truth wasn’t revealed for 50 years.

    The truth of the Katyn forest massacre was revealed in 1943.
    ========================================================

    While everyone else knew by 1943. Those who only follow the official Soviet propaganda on this. Didn’t realise the Russians did it, till they admitted to it in 1990. So as a good little “Tankie”, it was 50 years before “Badthinker” learnt the truth?.

    Note: This theory does require “Badthinker” to have done one complete lap of the horseshoe at least.

  2. As far as the Katyn massacre is concerned the Poles knew about it very early on.
    So sensitive are the Poles about this issue that when the Polish PM and his entourage died in plane crash on the way to Russia to accept an apology from Russia for this act (Russian built plane at the time) many Poles believed the plane was deliberately brought down – or at least made to look like an accident – when the aim was to down the plane.
    Poles always caught between two historical enemies – Russia and Germany.
    As the Poles themselves admit, the country is made for the easy transit of tanks – in either direction….from the East or the West.

  3. Wat Tyler, this isnt too surprising; people are suffering, and the broad consensus is that something has gone terribly wrong with the system.

    Where people differ is the cause of this, and One Nation and its ilk are perfectly positioned to soak up the vote of those who long for the Good Old Days TM. And in the Good Old Days TM, we didnt have the those new fangled LGBTQI+ people, and women stayed at home, and we were a good white Christian country. And it just felt Right TM.

    I mean its horribly inaccurate, but it works…

  4. Well Badfinger, they did butcher about two or three milion themselves (Poles and Soviets et al) too.
    How does that excuse the NKVD of butchering 20,000 of Poland’s best and brightest?

  5. “ We charge our hybrid from our solar panels.”

    I’m not in a position to charge my hybrid. But I have solar panels and a battery so I like to think I’m doing my bit. Of course, it will never be good enough for some people.

  6. Lordbain wrote, “the Greens policies are far to radical and will doom us all to reverting to hunter gatherers (or if we are lucky a purely rural agrarian lifestyle)”

    Ha, ha. Boerwar advocates for a rural agrian lifestyle. It is the DLP model for a better life and fits his history, ie being small landholder in the bush.

  7. Wat Tyler says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 9:39 pm

    I can only speak anecdotally but I can vouch for quite a few people who previously were dyed-in-the-wool Labor voters who think Albanese and the Government are out-of-touch and useless.
    ____________________
    I have no trouble being critical of Labor but I think the government has been ok. Probably because some of the things they have done I am very grateful for, namely restoring the Single Parenting Payment to an almost decent cut off age.

    The government is uninspiring, makes more than a few mistakes, but is stable, and so far, a lot better than the well named ATM government.

  8. clem, I would argue that such an event would lead to a pre private property level of agrarian subsistence living, but that would be winding up BW 😉

  9. Badthinker
    If you can’t get a fairly significant piece of history correctly reported and making unfounded statements, it then suggests this, along with other comments you make are just puff pieces and should be treated as such. Your credibility rating is somewhere on the stairs below the basement.

  10. “ this legislation comes across as particularly rat like and devious. Something you would expect a Tory government to implement..oh wait…oh sigh”

    My favourite comment today.

    Except you forgot about the chicken shit bit.

  11. While everyone else knew by 1943. Those who only follow the official Soviet propaganda on this.
    Soviet propaganda was far reaching.
    The NYT sent Walter Duranty to check out rumored dark deeds in UKraine in 1933.
    He returned to America wrote a Sunshine and Lollipops story, won the Pulitzer Prize, the NYT still hasn’t apologised.
    Did the NYT ever admit it was wrong on Katyn?
    Perhaps, but I has me doubts.

  12. Badthinker, wrote,
    “How does that excuse the NKVD of butchering 20,000 of Poland’s best and brightest?”

    Well of course it doesn’t, but is does mitigate any sympathy someone like you has in advocating for the Nazis’ innocence. They didn’t butcher those 20,000 Poles, but they did murder about 3,000000 others. You really do lack any flexibility of mind.

  13. Dave, yes I think so, Federal politics in particular does not seem willing or able to provide actual leadership and little constructive is being done or offered. Feels like there is no point to the Fed govt atm. Fairly surprised there’s still 70% of people apparently intending to vote for the major parties, doubt it’ll be that high come the election.

  18. Seriously, though, I more or less agree with Dave re the government’s record.

    But they absolutely need to be going to the next election with a substantial reform agenda. Otherwise, even if they win, they just arn’t going to have a mandate to do much of anything without breaking election promises.

  19. Well of course it doesn’t, but is does mitigate any sympathy someone like you has in advocating for the Nazis’ innocence.
    Huh?
    The conversation was about The Big Lie and Soviet propaganda.
    You know, the USSR, it’s hangman regime governed varying parts of the Eurasian landmass between 1917 and 1989, with the gun and the club..

  20. Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 9:51 pm
    Taking bets, will Badthinkers NYT comment get a William fact check.

    If so, what will the verdict be?

    Taking all comers…
    =================================================

    I’ll fact check the timey wimey bit. Walter Duranty won his Pultizer prize in 1932. Which means his reports from Ukraine in 1933 must have fallen through a time vortex. Something that happens often in “Badthinker” stories.

  24. For too long Labor has ridden on the coat tails of what they are against and what the Tories may or may not do, instead of advocating for a wide program of social and economic reform. It has lost all sense of itself and allowed too many people to gain positions of power who have no right to be anywhere near the party. Squint hard enough and you can easily imagine many in cabinet standing as Tory candidates.

  25. Asha @ #764 Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024 – 9:55 pm

    Seriously, though, I more or less agree with Dave re the government’s record.

    But they absolutely need to be going to the next election with a substantial reform agenda. Otherwise, even if they win, they just arn’t going to have a mandate to do much of anything without breaking election promises.

    I agree with that. Albanese’s government needs more confidence and assertiveness. Other than the Stage 3 Tax reforms, Albo’s pretty much being hiding in the corner since losing the Voice referendum in October last year while the LNP and Mainstream Media collectively stomp on him. He needs to get out of that mindset immediately and give us something political worth fighting for. Otherwise Dutton will win and would likely bring back some kind of 19th Century Dickensian Workhouse employment system.

  28. “ For too long Labor has ridden on the coat tails of what they are against and what the Tory filth may or may not do, instead of advocating for a wide program of social and economic reform.”

    Now you’ve out done yourself!

    Buy yourself a beer on me.

  30. Albo does not have sharp political antennae, and neither does his close confidantes seemingly either. Doubt he can really recover more than minority govt at the next election. The year spent with debate dominated on the Voice during an unaddressed cost of living crisis was not a smart move, but tbh I don’t think he’s really a deep thinker.

  31. I did a Holocaust unit at Uni and in my tutorial was this proto fascist who kept bringing up the civilian dead of Axis nations due to Allied bombing. As if that equaled out everything. Nauseating stuff.

  32. clem attlee says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 9:41 pm
    If I was minister for Industrial Relations I would do everything in my power to get rid of labour hire organisations. They are a canker.

    ….demonstrating that you know very little about the current job market, or anything about running a business, let alone one that as seasonal or incidental surge requirements.

  34. The instant Act:

    https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/legislation/bills/s1423_aspassed/toc_pdf/2409020.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22legislation/bills/s1423_aspassed/0000%22

    I’ve had a quick look & found that 323R bars an appeal to the FWC pursuant to s.604. On the face of it, this puts the CFMEU at a disadvantage to others who are subject to the FWA. I’ll leave it to this site’s lawyers to advise as to whether this constitutes a denial of due process or not. I blame FUBAR for keeping me up.

  35. Dave
    “ I did a Holocaust unit at Uni and in my tutorial was this proto fascist who kept bringing up the civilian dead of Axis nations due to Allied bombing. As if that equaled out everything. Nauseating stuff.”

    Revenge is not righteous; it’s just revenge.

    Kurt Vonnegut’s Slaughterhouse-five is worth a read.

  36. Mavis at 8.37 pm

    “one wonders whose advice this was based on” re prospect of HCA over-ruling Al-Kateb case.

    Indeed. Any good law student could have determined there was a case for reconsideration.

    Even a good jouro (harder to find these days than when Tim Bowden was learning the trade) could have got a correct answer, simply by asking David Marr.

    Michael Kirby never tired of pointing out how erroneous the Al-Kateb decision was, and it was one case where Murray Gleeson agreed with him.

    Mark Dreyfus should not have needed advice from anybody to understand the point that there was a likelihood of Al-Kateb being reviewed sooner or later.

  38. Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 9:04 pm
    [William, I am going to complain for a second; on top of the absolute nonsense BW keeps spewing, the fact he keeps accusing people of aping Goebbels is pretty low, and I recall you deleting comments from me, TPOF and others for similar statements.]

    [There is argy bargy, and then theres BW spewing that…]

    That’s very funny coming from Lordbain*!

  41. Tonight is the fault of “half arsed” universal “lack of education” said no-one in particular !

    Refer to the infamous words designer from not so long ago,
    “no one is the suppository of all wisdom”,
    Except on the PB platform!
    Hanrahan may well be correct, “we’ll all be rooned” says John O’Brien using the moniker Patrick Joseph Hartigan.

    “While round the church in clothes genteel
    Discoursed the men of mark,
    And each man squatted on his heel,
    And chewed his piece of bark.”

  42. Centre: ‘I find that the Greens supporters criticise Labor for being Liberal lite but when pressed for policies they wish implemented, we find them to be unelectable.’

    Adopting the royal ‘we’ there?

    And you are unanimous in that, Mrs Slocum? 😉

  43. goll, your Hanrahan quote is right on the mark.

    Banjo’s Man From Ironbark also comes to mind:

    “There were some gilded youths that sat
    Along the barber’s wall
    Their eyes were dull, their heads were flat
    They had no brains at all”

  44. Oh, Ralph Babet: speak of the Devil …

    “The office of the eSafety commissioner ordered X to remove tweets posting the video of the stabbing of Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel at his church in April …

    “United Australia Party senator Ralph Babet … was among those who strongly criticised the eSafety commissioner for intervening to stop the spread of the video.

    “After X announced it would challenge the removal notices … Babet reposted the stabbing video on his X account and his Facebook and Instagram pages …”

    A class act …

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/sep/04/ralph-babet-wakeley-church-stabbing-post-elon-musk-x-ntwnfb

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