Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)

Both leaders down on net approval in the latest Newspoll, the Coalition only slightly favoured over Labor on inflation, and little change on voting intention.

The Australian reports that Newspoll has a tied result on two-party preferred, unchanged on three weeks ago. The primary votes are Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 54%, his equal worst net result as Prime Minister, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up two to 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-39 to 45-37. The poll also finds “only a quarter” connsider inflation would be lower under the Coalition, with 18% believing it would be higher and 41% opting for neither. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1263.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

798 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. ‘clem attlee says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 8:59 pm

    Boewar wrote, “The Greens are not at all pro-union.

    The Greens want to destroy Labor.

    Unions are Labor’s bedrock.”

    Why do so many ‘Labor’ posters bag the unions on here then?….’
    ——————–
    Bullshit rhetorical question. Labor supporters supported the huge reforms to the IR system brought in by the Albanese Government. The individual who finally weakened the IR reforms was, incidentally, Pocock. The CFMEU were a huge embarrassment to the union movement. Barely anyone of 1.8 million unionists nationwide turned out to protest with the CFMEU.

  2. @clem attlee: “You don’t have to be a lawyer, its common sense”

    That is DEFINITELY not how the law works. You don’t need to be a lawyer to know that, it’s common sense.

  3. ‘Arky says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 9:07 pm

    @clem attlee: “You don’t have to be a lawyer, its common sense”

    That is DEFINITELY not how the law works. You don’t need to be a lawyer to know that, it’s common sense.’
    —————
    Haha. Good one.

  4. If Stinker’s interpreatation is accurate, then this legislation comes across as particularly rat like and devious. Something you would expect a Tory government to implement..oh wait…oh sigh!

  5. Stinker:

    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 8:47 pm

    [‘Without knowing what argument they’re running, it’s a high hurdle.’]

    [‘On Tuesday the sacked CFMEU heads filed a challenge, claiming a forced scheme of administration was unconstitutional and undemocratic because it violated union members’ rights to due process.’] – Aunty. I think such an argument is very well-founded.

  6. Scribbled has to be the most cutting put down I have ever been subjected to on this site. As a Left Hander I, once again, claim discrimination. See you in court.

  7. clem said

    “Then how can gthey justify the removal of these workers from their postions? Has there been any financial inprobity?”

    That’s an interesting question and may form part of the case run by the CFMEU (though I’m not sure exactly how it’s be shoehorned in as an argument). I expect the Government’s response would be “none of that is relevant”, which might well be right.

    I should clarify, none of what I’m saying is commenting at all on the pros or cons of the approach taken by the Government from a political perspective. Just pointing out some of the misunderstandings discussed this evening around the nature of the case that will be brought.

  8. Whatever you reckon, Badthinker.

    I think that “Let It Rip” Dom Perottet was seen by the NSW public as being instrumental in wielding heavy influence over Gladys’s covid missteps. He wore the consequences.

    Next, I recall saying “the immediate next election” as being the ones that were won by the good covid
    performers. Last week’s NT election is therefore excluded as will be the inevitable Labor loss in Qld next month. They were both won by incumbents against the odds in the first election after covid.

    We can keep resetting history to our most recent memory, but that doesn’t teach us anything.

  9. Last time I checked, all those office bearers were elected democratically. As for you Boerwar, the main reason that the CMFEU has been opposed by federal Labor is that they were too effective at getting benfits for their members, That was in direct conflict with all the corporate Labor donors. Boerwar thinks that the shoppies should be the model for all trade unions…lol.

  10. Goebbels was talking about Soviet propaganda.
    The Soviets had realised that if they told a big enough lie, the listener’s critical faculties were overwhelmed.
    See:
    Katyn Forest Massacre, Soviets slaughtered 20,000 Polish Officers, blamed the Wehrmacht.
    The truth wasn’t revealed for 50 years.
    Collectivisation in the Ukraine, happy workers toiling for the Motherland.
    Reality: 11 million intentionally starved to death, the truth took 30 years to be known.
    So, no, Goebbels didn’t invent the Big Lie, he may not have even used it.

  11. Centre @ #689 Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024 – 8:57 pm

    Confessions

    I find that the Greens supporters criticise Labor for being Liberal lite but when pressed for policies they wish implemented, we find them to be unelectable.

    Labor would lose!

    I just find that these days the Greens are trying to be all things to all people to the point that they now represent not much to most people.

  12. They’re getting good at politics, Confessions.

    It might give them, the Greens, one or two extra seats tops – but will more likely deliver a Liberal government than not!

  13. Fubar wrote, “did the CFMEU siphon money out before going into administration?”

    What do you reckon…seriously? If that was the case, then the Albanese government would have plastered that all over ‘their ABC’ by now.

  14. In economic times like those we are presently living in, people are increasingly aching for boldness from their governments. This doesn’t necessarily mean moving to the “left” or “right”- the average person doesn’t think in such ideological terms – but what it does mean is embracing real reform and change.

    Bland, steady-as-she goes centrism just won’t cut it, and if the federal government goes to an election on such meek platform, the sort that suggests that things are all basically fine and we only need to tinker around the edges, they are going to be eaten alive by both the Greens and the populist right.

    No, Dutton doesn’t have any actual solutions to what ails the country, and the Liberals returning to office will almost certainly make things much worse, but what Dutton is very good is coming across of sincerely pissed off about, well, everything, really, and policies like nuclear power and cutting migration do at least come across as things that will shake things up – sometimes that can be enough for a disengaged electorate that is angry about their standard of living. Likewise, there are plenty of nits one can pick with the Greens housing and rental policies, but you can’t say that they aren’t extremely bold – and those suffering under the weight of the housing crisis are going to be increasingly inclined to go with whoever is promising to fuck the system, regardless of how well thought-out such proposals may be.

  15. Unions, like Footy Clubs, avoid forensic examination.
    This HC application sounds like a stunt to fool the membership.
    But, where’s the money to pay for it originate?
    Legal Aid?

  16. Katyn Forest Massacre, Soviets slaughtered 20,000 Polish Officers, blamed the Wehrmacht.
    The truth wasn’t revealed for 50 years.

    The truth of the Katyn forest massacre was revealed in 1943.

  17. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 9:02 pm

    Big fat lie. I recommend you do what Goebbels did. Keep repeating the big fat lie. It worked for him. Until it didn’t.
    ————
    We endure your rants multiple times a day. You could at the very least do us the courtesy of backing off from the Nazi analogies.

  18. Lordbain:

    William, I am going to complain for a second; on top of the absolute nonsense BW keeps spewing, the fact he keeps accusing people of aping Goebbels is pretty low, and I recall you deleting comments from me, TPOF and others for similar statements.

    There is argy bargy, and then theres BW spewing that…

    I agree.

    For somebody who loves to accuse others of personal abuse and ad hominem attacks (sometimes justifiably, I might add), he sure is happy to dish it out.

  19. Did the CFMEU siphon money out before going into administration?
    Did anyone get a heads up that Albo was placing all branches in administration?
    I’d like to see that followed up in QT.

  20. FUBAR:

    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 9:16 pm

    [‘Did the CFMEU siphon money out before going into administration?’]

    I think you’re mixing up the CFMEU with the construction Mandarin who was today found guilty of ripping off the ATO for $10m. You know, the one who had the luxury of a trial.

  21. Agreed Asha, and its damning how the rusted ons seem to think that “slow and steady” is going to be the vote grabber.

    Truly fighting the current war with the tactics of the last…

    Also 10 minutes, well done

  22. Boerwar wrote, “that is DEFINITELY not how the law works. You don’t need to be a lawyer to know that, it’s common sense.’”

    Well I hope you would be happy if this was the standard of evidence that you would be happy to be sanctioned on. Nothing proven, just allegations. What a disgrace. Weak Albanese intimidated by the Tories. Only weak men need to posture as being strong.

  23. Luigi Smith @ #664 Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024 – 8:32 pm

    Plug-in hybrids are wonderful things. They are the ideal vehicle for Australians, giving economy and low emissions on short city trips while overcoming range anxiety on long trips. Sadly, they offer the worst of both worlds for CO2 emissions, having the high initial carbon input of battery EVs and about 50% of the ongoing emissions of ICE vehicles.

    When my current ICE vehicle dies, I’ll probably buy one and feel good about it, but I know I won’t actually be doing anything to achieve net zero.

    Hybrids are a reasonable choice in a country that is perfectly happy to subsidize fossil fuels but won’t subsidize building a national charging network.

    We charge our hybrid from our solar panels. It’s the best option we currently have. When there is a better option we will adopt that.

  24. The truth of the Katyn forest massacre was revealed in 1943.
    Sure.
    But the Big Lie was in play.
    I recall the Germans were still being blamed until after the fall of the wall, when it was cleared up by digging them up.

  25. “I recall the Germans were still being blamed until after the fall of the wall, when it was cleared up by digging them up.”

    Well Badfinger, they did butcher about two or three milion themselves (Poles and Soviets et al) too.

  26. It might give them, the Greens, one or two extra seats tops – but will more likely deliver a Liberal government than not!

    Yeah, and while I stepped away from voting Greens in the senate back in the Gillard years, it’s been their behaviour over the past decade in enabling the kind of anti environment approaches that has really turned me off them.

  27. William wrote, “the truth of the Katyn forest massacre was revealed in 1943.”

    Yep, the Nazis filmed the exhumation of the bodies. I thought everybody knew that? Clearly not!

  28. Fess, how do you feel about the news that Albo would rather work with the LNP on the environment then the cross bench and the Greens?

  29. Our congaline of resident RWNJs have been spinning the line for months that the the Higgins saga was a put up job by Labor because … Shiraz was friendly with Katie G … this has been part of an orchestrated campaign to rewrite the history of the 2022 federal election: “stolen by Higgins lies” yadda yadda.

    Back on planet earth this has always been a blue on blue / liberal bun fight. As this little morsel of information confirms … once again …

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/article/2024/sep/03/linda-reynolds-brittany-higgins-defamation-trial-closing-arguments-ntwnfb

  30. Fubar…..
    Sour grapes or just your usual rank hypocrisy re McGowan on the “gravy train”?
    For every one Labor passenger on the Gravy Train you can bet they will be 10 LNP passengers long before the Labor lot get on board.
    The LNP guys and gals leave the rest of the political class at the starting blocs when it comes to hypocrisy.

  31. “ I recommend you do what Goebbels did”

    I respectfully suggest you stop with your new “Goebbels” thing. It’s a bit offensive.

  32. I think you’re mixing up the CFMEU with the construction Mandarin who was today found guilty of ripping off the ATO for $10m.
    He was a Labor Hire Contractor in the Scaffolding biz with very close ties to the NSW Branch of the CFMEU, called to give evidence at the Trades Unions RC.

  33. Anyone else finding Australian politics truly awful lately? I mean it’s been bad for a while but I think we’ve sunk to new depths, and everyone is to blame.

  34. Also can I get an answer from Fess, BW etc on this weird thing you guys keep saying; one minute the Greens policies are far to radical and will doom us all to reverting to hunter gatherers (or if we are lucky a purely rural agrarian lifestyle), and the next second theres cries about how the Greens dont care about the environment at all.

    Not sure its just me, but its kinda difficult to be both these things at once…

  35. I can only speak anecdotally but I can vouch for quite a few people who previously were dyed-in-the-wool Labor voters who think Albanese and the Government are out-of-touch and useless. While none are switching to the Coalition and a few of them might end up still voting Labor next time or voting Green but preferencing Labor, what is alarming is how many are being lured by the siren’s call of One Nation (and similar other ideological outfits.) While they might still preference Labor over Liberal, it’s possible those people could just follow a HTV card from PHON and, if said card recommends preferencing the Liberals first, are effectively switching their 2PP from Labor to Coalition. And let’s not forget potential effects on Senate elections.

    EDIT: Also, this is leading to more RW populist rhetoric increasingly becoming accepted.

  36. If I was minister for Industrial Relations I would do everything in my power to get rid of labour hire organisations. They are a canker.

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