The Australian reports that Newspoll has a tied result on two-party preferred, unchanged on three weeks ago. The primary votes are Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 54%, his equal worst net result as Prime Minister, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up two to 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-39 to 45-37. The poll also finds “only a quarter” connsider inflation would be lower under the Coalition, with 18% believing it would be higher and 41% opting for neither. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1263.
From the previous thread
Luigi Smith says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 8:39 pm
There isn’t a general lurch to the right in Europe. France and the UK are good examples of recent lurches to the left. If there is a consistent lurch (and I think there is) it’s a lurch away from incumbency.
The UK result reflected the split in the Tory vote. The Labour vote barely moved. The split should be seen as a shift by Reactionary opinion away from more conventionally Conservative pragmatism. There is really not much doubt: parties of the Centre-Right are becoming notably more Rightist/Reactionary. This is a very troubling development. Neo-Fascist expression is becoming normalised.
This will mean that as electoral successes oscillate between reformist/egalitarian parties and rightist parties Far-Right assemblies will more often obtain power. This is more or less inevitable. Parties who premise their claims on hatred will score more wins. This is terrifying. The parties of hatred know it. They rejoice in it. Fear is their armament of choice. The least-well franchised will suffer the most.
It is very difficult to read how a result based on tonight’s poll would pan out at an actual election.
On the one hand, Labor could be returned with another majority if the 2% or so swing to the Coalition is concentrated in rural seats and working-class outer suburban seats, where in the former there is a pre-existing big Coalition margin and in the latter there is a fairly large Labor margin which cannot be made up in the short term. A scenario like this would actually have a zero or negative Coalition swing in their own marginals in places like Deakin and Menzies, resulting in a situation similar to 2018 Victoria where they obtained a net swing on two party preferred but made no inroads on seat totals.
On the other hand, if there is a uniform swing, the Coalition may even form government. The wild card will be what happens to the Teals. Before the ATM era, a 50-50 2pp result would typically result in a narrow Coalition majority. The presence of Independents has made the picture much more complicated. How many Teals can the Liberals knock off, and the possibility that they lose even more seats to Teals such as Bradfield, is going to be the million dollar question.
Seat-specific polls are needed.
Stooge, thats sort of the point for these movements; pretty much every far right european movement just so happens to be receiving funding and support from the very entities that will rip apart the European safety nets just to make more money.
But no, its the refugees that are the problem
This result reminds me of something Mark Kenny mentioned during todays Insiders; it appears the (whether intentionally or not) Dutton has put Labor at odds with what should be members of their core voter base; the last few months have seen Labor walk back promises made to the indigenous community, the disabled community, the LBGTQI+ community and tertiary education.
But yes, seat by seat polling is needed
Albo has had a nervous and clumsy fortnight, but Dutton’s comments on immigration (divisive) and nuclear energy (idiotic) are as bad if not worse. So 50-50 is not a surprise relative to the news as it is reported to most Australians.
I still think Labor’s stocks will improve as budget measures (tax cuts and energy rebates) take effect. A reduction in interest rates would be a godsend. So would a comprehensive long terms solution to the housing affordability crisis, which is really a housing supply crisis.
ScromoII says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 9:49 pm
Seat-specific polls are needed.
Seat level polling is basically worthless. The MOEs exceed the 2PP margins. They are a pointless distraction. It’s just not possible to obtain randomised samples that would yield statistically valuable results.
I think this poll shows that Albo has the chance of one last shot in the locker for re-election.
He’s in the same position that John Howard was in during early 1998. If he’s still moping about the referendum last October then he should resign now. But if he has a plan to win, then he has to activate it soon.
I’m guessing he’s probably going to do something after the Queensland state election in October so he can’t be accused of ruining it for them up there like Tony Abbott did with his “Sir Prince Philip” nonsense in 2015 that both helped made the LNP lose and brought forth Abbott’s own downfall a few months later.
@ScromoII
Yep, suspect there is going to quite patchy and variable swings at the next election again which makes it hard to predict the seat breakdown. I suspect the LNP’s positioning is going to do better in seats it already holds but will not appeal in enough metro swing seats to gain alot of them, but yes some polling that factors in demographic variables that can be applied to different seats would be useful to test that hypothesis.
At 50-50 one would think a Labor minority govt is the most likely outcome if you factor in teals and the higher chance that Labor’s vote is going to be more efficiently spread.
Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather’s attendance at the CFMEU protest was midway through the polling period. Despite causing Labor and the MSM to have complete meltdown, the Greens support remains unchanged. It was also after Bandt’s much derided ‘Robin Hood’ speech at the National Press Club, so the Greens’ ideas of a tax on obscene company profits didn’t hurt them either.
Trend is not labors friend.
May 2022 alp 57 coalition 43.
Assuming 50-50 in May next year ignores the fact of this slide over a long period.
It’s a big call that labors vote will stop sliding or stay as it is let alone improve given unpopular PM,inflation to stay high for another year etc etc.
The slide looks to be kind of stalling now though.
Lordbain says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 9:50 pm
Stooge, thats sort of the point for these movements; pretty much every far right european movement just so happens to be receiving funding and support from the very entities that will rip apart the European safety nets just to make more money.
But no, its the refugees that are the problem
The vilification of ‘the outsider’ and ‘the other’ is a Reactionary staple. For me this is a pitiable thing.
In my own practice as an artist to ‘be in the presence of the other’ opens the way to ‘learning of the self’. My practice anticipates an exchange of the ineffable, a communication, an intimacy, a sensing between people. In these moments, one finds their own humanity in the humanity of the other. This is a profoundly humanising and emancipating experience. It permits release from the objectification, the fear, the taboo to which the Reactionaries would condemn us. In this sense, art is a liberator.
Indeed Eddy; It didnt hurt, and nationally appears not to have given them a boost, but I would be really curious about certain inner city seats with small margins atm…
It was never going to hurt the Greens base vote, it’s what their supporters expect from them. The way things are going I’d be surprised if they don’t increase their vote from the last election.
Eddy @ #9 Sunday, September 1st, 2024 – 10:12 pm
Max Chandler-Pyne may want to check himself before he wrecks himself. His enablers in the press may want him to spray as much venom at Labor as possible, but there may come a point where that venom backfires.
Kirs, the media is hardly hyping him up; considering everyone from the Australian to the ABC was damning him for his performance at the union march in Brisbane… to be fair though, bandt was damned from the ABC to the Tele for his speech as well this week.
Guess the media doesnt really like Greenies
While I think that 50-50 is an OK place for a government to be at this point, and I think any claims that the government (or Albanese’s run) is terminal is a tad melodramatic, I will say that just relying on conventional maxims about Australian politics (or statements like “previous PMs have been in worse positions and still gone on to win”) can lead to upset (as it has before when people have confidently declared to know how Australians will typically behave at the ballot box.)
I think the biggest issue that the Albanese Government has is it doesn’t really have a strong identity other than “We’re not Dutton” and “We’re the current mob.” It’s hard to really encapsulate what this government stands for or what its long term vision for the country is (beyond vague motherhood statements), and any inkling of that quickly gets suppressed the second they face any real opposition or the possibility of a fight. I get that inflation has lasted a lot longer than they had intended (I suspect they expected it to be sufficiently eased by mid-2023) and that’s dampened any bold agenda they might have had but, right now, they’re just all over the place, offering inoffensive half-measures and hoping they’ll just ride the “Better the devil you know” train to re-election.
Famously, Howard was in much worse positions mid-term but, even in his first term (his weakest until Rudd became Opposition Leader), he still had a vision – a conservative vision that most here would not agree with – but a vision nonetheless and, with that, an identity. I can’t see that with Albanese.
Dutton’s a dipstick and he’s clearly not automatically the Next-PM-in-waiting, as evidenced by the fact that the movement away from Labor’s primary vote hasn’t automatically resulted in movement to that of the Coalition. However, he is starting to form an alternative vision for the country – a messed up one that’s more heavy on identarian culture wars – but still a vision and, more importantly, recognises the problems that Australians are having (even if the suggested solutions don’t actually address them.)
For all I know, the next election will be boring and going through the motions, and the Government is returned with ease. But I worry we could see a 2010 situation again. I don’t mean the leadership change stuff but rather it being an election where Labor goes in as the favourites but their campaign is so hollow that holes are easily punched into it by the Opposition. Not to mention a gaffe or leak (or other sign of disunity) being enough to knock the entire thing off its rails.
Sorry, I know I am being rambly and this is already a bit of a novella (first time in a while I have been able to type so much without giving up half-way though due to brain-fog. Hopefully this means I’m clearing that tunnel!) but I dunno, just do something and actually draw some real battlelines, instead of just letting Dutton define the argument. And no, small technocratic neoliberal trimming of policy edges doesn’t count as a vision.
Anyone interpreting the last French election as anything but the continuing rise of the Right in France are delusional.
Howard was probably in a worse position in much of 2001 compared to in 1998.
He was probably on track to lose the election, even with Tampa. It was 9/11 that really did it for him and all incumbents around the globe.
On the other hand, Beazley (called “Sleazeby” by many) only ever put up weak opposition.
Looks like one off issues like the media rotating obsessions are not shifting things much in the polls. We are 6-7 months our from.E Day. Dutton will have to say more about COL solutions people will trust to take seats away from Labor. If he sticks with ‘I’m not the other guy’ and little else he is blowing an opportunity to do serious damage to Labor in typically Labor favoured seats. In my mind Newspoll which is the only poll I trust will stay around 50_50 unless or until Dutton gives Labor people a reason to flip. I suspect he’s got nothin.
”
Stoogesays:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 9:47 pm
From the previous thread
Luigi Smith says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 8:39 pm
There isn’t a general lurch to the right in Europe. France and the UK are good examples of recent lurches to the left. If there is a consistent lurch (and I think there is) it’s a lurch away from incumbency.
The UK result reflected the split in the Tory vote. The Labour vote barely moved. The split should be seen as a shift by Reactionary opinion away from more conventionally Conservative pragmatism. There is really not much doubt: parties of the Centre-Right are becoming notably more Rightist/Reactionary. This is a very troubling development. Neo-Fascist expression is becoming normalised.
This will mean that as electoral successes oscillate between reformist/egalitarian parties and rightist parties Far-Right assemblies will more often obtain power. This is more or less inevitable. Parties who premise their claims on hatred will score more wins. This is terrifying. The parties of hatred know it. They rejoice in it. Fear is their armament of choice. The least-well franchised will suffer the most.
”
Except for davidwh and Steelydan, unfortunately, the other Tory represention on PB are “notably more Rightist/Reactionary.”
“ Guess the media doesnt really like Greenies”
Lordbain, they unloaded with everything they had and it did nothing to hurt the Greens. People who actually care about being ripped off by big business, the housing crisis, the environment and wasting billions on submarines to fight American wars, are just not listening to MSM rubbish. They are staying true to their beliefs. The polls are also suggesting a hung parliament, which is looking more and more likely because, instead of showing leadership, Albanese is standing in a hole with a shovel.
Guys
Currently I am Venice(Venezia), Italy. There is a street named Albanesi adjacent to palazzo ducale(Doge’s Palace). 🙂
FUBAR says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 10:38 pm
Anyone interpreting the last French election as anything but the continuing rise of the Right in France are delusional.
Yes. Reactionary parties are improving their positions. There will be grave consequences if this continues. Conventionally conservative voices should act against the Reactionaries. But of course, being utterly feckless, they will do nothing. We’ve enjoyed 80-odd years of relative international peace, economic prosperity and widespread social advances. This can be compared to the centuries of exploitation, war, chaos and misery that preceded our times. The rise of the Reactionaries threatens an end to our good run. The parties of hate are gathering strength.
I meant to say:
‘People who actually care about being ripped off by big business, the housing crisis, the environment, wasting billions on submarines to fight American wars, and GAZA are just not listening to MSM rubbish.’
Past behaviour and performance is usually a fair indicator of what can be expected in the future. So can’t see Labor proposing or doing anything bold under Albo – he’s frozen by doubt and so not particularly useful at his job. Maybe he’ll have a realisation at some point and break the chains but it doesn’t look likely.
FUBAR, considering the right lost to the left and centre, it was hardly a victory for le pen (and a cock-ups for macron). And so far the left is holding. A lesson to be learned for other left wing groups…
He needs to get out of minority gov polling range as libs will run with “ a vote for labor is a vote for the Greens”.
Bandt and co are not Christine Milne.
More and more albo looks like someone who wasn’t prepared for a fight; a labor leader from the time of 1 party majorities.
A 20th century leader for the 21st century.
I would also like to add the ABC to ‘MSM rubbish’. There opinion writers’ coverage of Max Chandler-Mather’s attendance at the CFMEU protest was a disgrace
Wat Tylersays:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 10:34 pm
_____________________
Not rambly at all. Was good stuff.
“But of course, being utterly feckless, they will do nothing.”
Yep
“considering the right lost to the left and centre, it was hardly a victory for le pen”
Every chance Le Pen will be in charge within a year
Cyclone Tracy here at the minute. The whole house is shaking.
Have got the candles out, I reckon we might lose power.
Am worried about that big gum in the backyard.
Lordbain what’s your take on how the Greens are tracking at the moment. It doesn’t looks they are getting a bump up from the PALESTINE or CFMEU issues they have been prosecuting for a while now. The CENSUS seems a fizzer too for all parties.
Steady as it goes, the good ship Labor.
Withstanding everything the MSM Liberal propaganda units can throw at it.
When cost of living pressures ease and interest rates drop due to measures put in place by a very efficient Treasurer, there will be nothing but calm seas ahead.
Well done Albo, well done Jim!
Be safe Taylormade. Here in Lonny my dog is freaking out about the wind . Got my torch and candles and a good book out.
Lordbain @ #29 Sunday, September 1st, 2024 – 10:33 pm
I’m not sure if you were here prior to the last election but, in the lead-up (prior to the election being called) when the Coalition was badly tanking in the polls and it was looking like the election was going to be Labor’s to lose, there were quite a few comments from people on here about the inevitable “Albanese Decade” that was to come (one comment even went as far as suggesting Albanese would be PM for 10 years, followed by another 10 years for Chalmers.)
Now this was obviously partisan bravado and the comments of random supporters online do not necessarily reflect the view of the party at large but it kind of reflects the cynical attitude that you just have to get your foot in the door of government, don’t rock the boat and keep a very slim cohort of marginal voters happy with gimmicks and bribes, and you’ll be in government for a long time.
Taylormade @ #34 Sunday, September 1st, 2024 – 10:50 pm
Stay safe, man. Hopefully it passes with minimum damage or problems.
There’s elections in the German states of Thuringia and Saxony today. Thuringia in particular looks like a mess:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Thuringian_state_election#Party_polling
Current govt: Left / SPD / Green coalition. Of those parties, the Greens look like getting booted from parliament altogether (along with the FDP) thanks to the 5% threshold, SPD are dangerously close to that point as well, and the Left has split in half with the breakaway fraction BSW outpolling them, so it’s safe to say that coalition won’t be back.
Current polling average: AfD 29.6, CDU 21.7, BSW 18.3, Left 14.2, SPD 6.1. Assuming the Greens and others don’t make it to 5%, that boosts the other parties for % of seats: something like AfD 33.3, CDU 24.4, BSW 20.6, Left 16.0, SPD 6.9.
The only two-party coalitions that work are AfD+CDU or AfD+BSW. The first, the CDU wouldn’t dare (look how much trouble they got into last time), and the second… neo-nazis and communists working together? So realistically they need three parties. If they want to keep the AfD out, either the two broken halves of the Left need to deal with each other, or the CDU need to deal with at least one of them. The SPD would be crucial, as they’ve formed coalitions before with the CDU and the Left (although certainly not at the same time). It’ll be a dog’s breakfast.
_______
Saxony looks a little more sane. They currently have a CDU / Green / SPD govt, which looks set to narrowly hang on… as long as the Greens and SPD stay in parliament (again, polling scarily close to that 5% line). If either of them drop out, that turns to shit and they end up with the same problem as Thuringia.
Saxony has been led by the CDU ever since German reunification, but it’s been a wild ride. CDU majorities in 1990, 1994, 1999, then a CDU-SPD grand coalition in 2004, a more classic CDU-FDP in 2009, back to the grand in 2014, then a Kenya coalition (black-red-green) in 2019.
_______
I’m kinda impressed states the size of WA or Qld get so many opinion polls. Here, apart from the big two states you’re lucky if there’s one a year.
Chandler-Mather just keeps upping the ante. Tomorrow he will announce his plan for a a National Renters Protection Authority to fine dodgy landlords and their agents who break the rules or don’t do repairs.
There goes the power. I’m our of here.
It’s blowing a fake and Barnaby’s having trouble remaining upright after consuming a gutful of gender fluidity at a woke night, considering changing his name to Wom-Batt and going full green.
Quite reasonably Wom-Batt should consider the implications of lighting candles in a weatherboard and iron, with the chances of the bloody sixty foot gum slicing the house like a dodgy sponge cake.
Lordbain says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 11:00 pm
Who said it was a victory for Le Pen?
Do you think Le Pen went backwards?
Do you think the right in France are worse off?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The internet here is on half ratpower after a wild night of strong winds. My brief review of a few papers indicated a very low level of interesting content, so I don’t feel inclined to struggle through pulling together a probably tepid Dawn Patrol under the circumstances.
The federal Lib/nats and thier propaganda media units still can not get the combined primary vote into 40% on a consistent basis , or even get into a newspoll lead despite all the so called bad weeks for Labor and Anthony Albanese
Doubt Labor would be complaining if all these bad weeks for labor continue to see the federal lib/nats combined primary vote fall by 1%
PP: ‘… libs will run with “a vote for labor is a vote for the Greens”.’
You say that like it’s a bad thing! 🙂
BK @ #45 Monday, September 2nd, 2024 – 6:17 am
Thanks BK. I’m not feeling well this morning, so I’m unable to step up for you.
Peter Dutton will be getting worried about wether he will still be leader by may2025 federal election , if the next 2 newspolls show the lib/nats combined primary vote continue on the downward slide
Is there any stopping autocrats ?