YouGov has a new federal poll out showing a tie on two-party preferred, after Labor led 51-49 in the last such poll a month ago. Rounding clearly had something to do with the shift, because Labor is actually up a point on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition down one to 37%, with the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up one to 8%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval 52%, with Peter Dutton steady on 42% and up one to 47%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-38, in from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1543.
In other developments:
• Having exhausted every avenue to challenge his preselection defeat, all the way to the Supreme Court, right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has quit the Liberal Party and announced he will run at the next election under the banner of the Gerard Rennick People First party. The Australian points out that Rennick has “almost 320,000 followers on Facebook and Twitter”.
• Graham Perrett, who has held the Brisbane seat of Moreton for Labor since 2007, has announced he will retire at the next election. Perrett had hitherto resisted pressure to make way for Julie-Ann Campbell, Left faction colleague and the party’s state secretary, as the Queensland branch struggled to meet its affirmative action quota. A source quoted by Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review said Campbell had the numbers to win a contested preselection, and that Perrett’s backers in the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union had encouraged him to withdraw.
• The Liberals have chosen three candidates for seats in Perth: grains farmer Mic Fels in Swan, Gosnells councillor David Goode in Hasluck, and lawyer and former party staffer Sean Ayres in Burt. Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports Fels won the party vote in Swan by 38 to 34 ahead of Nick Marvin, former chief executive of the Perth Wildcats basketball and Western Force rugby league clubs.
• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals are hoping to enlist Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn, who will shortly lose her seat on council due to the party’s nominations fiasco, to take on teal independent Sophie Scamps in Mackellar.
• Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has announced that the Liberal National Party will restore optional preferential voting in the seemingly likely event that it wins the October 26 state election. Optional preferential voting was introduced by one Labor government in 1992, and unexpectedly abolished by another in 2016.
I think it’s likely that Rory Amon will now be managed out of the NSW Libs.
Just watched Kamala Harris interview. Very impressive I thought.
I assume the census questions on LGBTQIWA+ will be along the lines of the questions that the ONS in the UK asked in 2021. The two questions were:
Which of these best describes your sexual orientation? The options were: Straight/Heterosexuals, Gay or Lesbian, Bisexual, other (describe).
Is the gender you identify with the same as you were assigned at birth;
“Yes”, “No, Write in gender identity”.
dave says:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:08 pm
Can be both but most new migrant group have a period of higher crime and disadvantage.
_____________
I don’t know about that. I vaguely recall reading something along the lines of ‘most’ migrant groups have a lower crime rate than the national average. Perhaps someone will have the data.
——
Yes, i thought so too.
I have a number of convict ancestors. They all settled in to become law abiding colonists. None of them committed crimes here that i know of.
‘dave says:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:05 pm
Boerwar says:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:02 pm
Did we manage to put the LGBTIQ+ census question to bed?
______________
Are you all for it now?’
===================
I still don’t care. In the scale of things a single census question in or out does not matter to me. I can see why LGBTIQ+ identifying people might want it in but really, it will most likely deliver statistically invalid results because of all false negatives. Government data security is crap, after all.
IMO we face far more important issues. Like Dutton’s promise to reduce taxes and pay for the cuts by cutting 10,000 public servants and removing all of Labor’s climate fight initiatives.
Or the Greens’ lunatic promise to increase company tax to the most expensive company tax in the entire world. We all know how companies will respond.
Or the surge in hybird car sales… a real disaster for zero net fifty.
Or our Anthropocene Extinction Event.
Or the evil habit of Dutton and Bandt to stoke communal hatreds.
All far, far more important than a census question, IMO.
I’ve seen part 1 & 2 on YouTube.
Very straightforward interview. I disagree with a few of her policy positions, but she presented well enough and the interviewer did her job well.
Boerwar
All far, far more important than a census question, IMO.
————
Yes, but so what?
Can’t we discuss lesser important matters as well?
I’ve seen on here a veritable tome of discussion on abortion in America. Can there be anything more trivial on an Australian blog?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/28/labor-international-student-cap-universities-tim-pallas
I would expect Albo to compensate the Vic Govt for the huge loss of revenue.
1. Are you Straight/Heterosexual and is the gender you identify with the same as you were assigned at birth?
Yes -> Go to Question 500…
‘Rikali says:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:24 pm
Boerwar
All far, far more important than a census question, IMO.
————
Yes, but so what?
Can’t we discuss lesser important matters as well?
I’ve seen on here a veritable tome of discussion on abortion in America. Can there be anything more trivial on an Australian blog?’
——————-
So what?
So the uproar is disproportionate.
‘Alpha Zero says:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:24 pm
1. Are you Straight/Heterosexual and is the gender you identify with the same as you were assigned at birth?
Yes -> Go to Question 500…’
—————–
I object to being lumped with ‘Straights’.
And back to some light hearted homophobia…
Also more temperature records tumbling (hottest Sydney August day since 2012) and parts of Qld may get up to 15 degrees warmer then average in the coming week.
But hey, cant do anything about coal or gas, that would just be silly
Most of the ‘public policy discourse’ on migrant crime is moral panic uproar. There is a bit of it uproar around.
BTW, Dutton and Bandt should pull their heads in and stop stoking communalist hatreds. They should listen to the DG ASIO. But they won’t. They must reckon there are some votes in it.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07418825.2012.659200
The 2026 Census website is informative.
For example, questions no longer being considered for the census include:
Cultural diversity — Ethnic identity
Disability and carers —- Additional measure of disability
Household and families —- Shared care of children
Housing —- Dwelling occupancy status
Transport —- Journey to education (Mode of travel to education institution and Name and address of education institution)
Other topics —- Household energy use
—- Impact of natural disasters
I’d have thought that some or all of those topics might have significant impacts on planning and resourcing. It remains unclear to me why “Gender”, “Sexual Orientation” and “Variations of sex characteristics” [I’m quoting here] have greater significance and are still therefore on the agenda.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/research/2026-census-topic-review-phase-two-directions
“In the first place, saying there’s no evidence people lie on census forms is a bit like saying there’s no evidence of anyone committing a crime that’s gone undetected”.
This doesn’t really mean anything.
“In the second place, people who design census forms deliberately avoid asking questions which have a strong reason for respondents to lie. Not for any moral reason, just because it would render the results worthless.”
Who says people have a strong reason to lie? Surely you need some evidence for this rather than just some feels.
“It’s funny how many labor people here sound just like liberal supporters did under Morrison.”
Perhaps that’s why Albanese wanted the question gone, all the divisiveness among the rusted-ons.
RD, there are some traditionally very socially conservative power blocks as well in the union movement (SDA being the go to).
Its why its funny when yesterday people are claiming this was delayed out of a concern for the Labor vote in Muslim heavy areas, and ignoring the Christian shaped elephant in the room…
I should have added that both Questions were voluntary in the England and Wales.
For the first questions, 89% answered Straight. 1.5% Gay or Lesbian, 1.3% bisexual, 0.3% other, 7.5% did not answer. Which suggests that a lot of people were unwilling to answer the question.
For the second question on gender identity, 93.5% answered “Yes”, 0.53% answered “No” and 6% did not answer.
>Or the surge in hybird car sales… a real disaster for zero net fifty.
So should we start discussing how to remove the current vehicles that have no eletrical propulsion at all? Or are they fine to remain?
Or are you calling for Labor to ban new fossil fuel/hybrid cars sales?
“I’ve seen on here a veritable tome of discussion on abortion in America. Can there be anything more trivial on an Australian blog?”
Given the links between American Culture Wars and Australian politics, not trivial at all. The new NT Chief Minister has promised ‘to consider’ a law straight out of US anti-abortion culture wars. A majority of Coalition senators voted last week in favour of an abortion motion drawn straight out of the same culture wars.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:28 pm
‘Alpha Zero says:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:24 pm
1. Are you Straight/Heterosexual and is the gender you identify with the same as you were assigned at birth?
Yes -> Go to Question 500…’
—————–
I object to being lumped with ‘Straights’.
____________________
Can we put you down for Vanilla?
“South Yorkshire Police inundated after asking people to report anyone living a lavish
lifestyle without having a job”
The NSW Liberals are apparently holding a meeting to decide what to do about Rory Amon. Do you think it will be a long meeting?
“I’d have thought that some or all of those topics might have significant impacts on planning and resourcing. It remains unclear to me why “Gender”, “Sexual Orientation” and “Variations of sex characteristics” [I’m quoting here] have greater significance and are still therefore on the agenda.”
Perhaps those topics not in for 2026 have sufficient data behind them to inform decisions for the next census period and the other questions do not.
NSW Liberal MP Rory Amon has been charged by police with historic child sex offences. Mr Amon, the representative for the state electorate of Pittwater, will pursue a non-publication order later today before Magistrate Lisa Stapleton at Manly Local Court and then appear again for plea on September 18. The charges relate to an alleged sexual assault in Mona Vale in July 2017, in which Mr Amon allegedly assaulted a teenage boy who was known to him. Mr Amon was charged with five counts of sexual intercourse with a person over 10 and under 14 years, two charges of indecent assault of a person under 16 years, one charge of commit act of indecency with a person under 16 years and two charges of attempting sexual intercourse child with a child over 10 under 14.
Rory Amon has already vanished from the NSW Liberals webpage: https://nswliberal.org.au/state-liberals
Someone may have pre-empted the meeting.
>Or the Greens’ lunatic promise to increase company tax to the most expensive company tax in the entire world. We all know how companies will respond.
They will leave the country leaving a space for Australian companies to step in. I mean we hear all the time about how their is not enough people to build homes so less jobs elsewhere means more people avaliable right?
>Or our Anthropocene Extinction Event.
And what is one of the biggest driving force for this? Emissions from fossil fuels
Rory Amon has already vanished from the NSW Liberals webpage: https://nswliberal.org.au/state-liberals
Someone may have pre-empted the meeting.
Edit: There are a couple of other dodgy looking characters on that page. Maybe the meeting could run on.
A little late for non-publication order, isn’t? That genie is out of the bottle.
I know there is a presumption of innocent but his name is now out there already. he has at least got to go to the crossbench until the trial, if it gets that far.
It’s hit 30° in a warm and windy Sydney.
Catprog, theres no point; this is a guy that will rant about the need to end tourism right now because of emissions, and then praise Labor for expanding fossil fuels.
Thanks Luigi
You just reintroduced me to Leslie Williams’ photo – something I was hoping to never see again
>Rory Amon has already vanished from the NSW Liberals webpage: https://nswliberal.org.au/state-liberals
Good gravy if those aren’t the whitest kids around.
Oakeshott Country
“NSW Parliament does it again (maybe they should outsource to the Catholic Church)
The Liberal member for Pittwater, Rory Amon is charged with 10 child sex offences.”
—————————————————
NSW certainly seems to “punch above its weight” in this category 😐
I see that Albo has caved in on the “Sex” question. I really don’t have a view. If there is a practical use for these statistics then by all means include it. I have no dog in that fight.
But it’s a 4th order issue. Labor is letting itself be distracted and sometimes derailed way too often by culture war issues. It needs to be smarter in dealing with these.
Steve777
The wind has been atrocious in my part of the world this week. Today it has eased up thank goodness.
If there is a by-election in Pittwater it is highly likely to fall to the Teal type independent who ran last NSW state election and was within 1% of winning. Amon was controversial as a candidate to begin with as he was not seen as a strong candidate – wonder why?
‘Alpha Zero says:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:47 pm
Boerwarsays:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:28 pm
‘Alpha Zero says:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:24 pm
1. Are you Straight/Heterosexual and is the gender you identify with the same as you were assigned at birth?
Yes -> Go to Question 500…’
—————–
I object to being lumped with ‘Straights’.
____________________
Can we put you down for Vanilla?’
================
I don’t mock LGBTIQ+ people. I don’t like it when people carry on about alphabet soup and the like. I think that is disrespectful.
I would appreciate equal respect.
Meanwhile Brazil is looking to shut down Xtwitter
‘Catprog says:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:56 pm
>Or the Greens’ lunatic promise to increase company tax to the most expensive company tax in the entire world. We all know how companies will respond.
They will leave the country leaving a space for Australian companies to step in. I mean we hear all the time about how their is not enough people to build homes so less jobs elsewhere means more people avaliable right?
>Or our Anthropocene Extinction Event.
And what is one of the biggest driving force for this? Emissions from fossil fuels’
—————————————
What Australian companies?
Hello? Why on earth would ANYONE invest in Australia companies when the same capital invested elsewhere will get better returns almost anywhere else on earth?
The SYIRZANs had the same stupid ideas and they Greens thought the SYRIZANs were the ants pants. Until the SYRIZANs won government. Capital strike and capital flight was the order of the day. Greek companies promptly re-headquartered elsewhere. Anyone with loose cash promptly placed it elsewhere. The SYRIZANs raided the banks holdings and the pension fund holdings until there was diddley squat left.
BS, thats very likely considering the Liberal in question was one of those “questioned” for having a verrrry teal color scheme on their posters
‘Catprog says:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:56 pm
>Or the Greens’ lunatic promise to increase company tax to the most expensive company tax in the entire world. We all know how companies will respond.
They will leave the country leaving a space for Australian companies to step in. I mean we hear all the time about how their is not enough people to build homes so less jobs elsewhere means more people avaliable right?
>Or our Anthropocene Extinction Event.
And what is one of the biggest driving force for this? Emissions from fossil fuels’
—————————
It is good to see a Greens concerned about major existential issues.
Unlike PP trying to weaponise the sexual assault of an old woman to attack Labor earlier in this thread , I am not going to do the same about a Liberal MP charged today with child sexual abuse. Where you come from or what political party you belong to is irrelevant in my mind. I hope both alleged perpetrators go to jail for a long time if found guilty. End of story.
‘B. S. Fairman says:
Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:43 pm
I should have added that both Questions were voluntary in the England and Wales.
For the first questions, 89% answered Straight. 1.5% Gay or Lesbian, 1.3% bisexual, 0.3% other, 7.5% did not answer. Which suggests that a lot of people were unwilling to answer the question.
For the second question on gender identity, 93.5% answered “Yes”, 0.53% answered “No” and 6% did not answer.’
===================
A combined positive result of 3.1% for the LGBTIQ+ folk is IMO grossly unrepresentative: an almost perfectly useless outcome.
Sir Kier Starmer is in Berlin meeting Herr Scholz who’s Party the SPD faces regional elections in both Saxony and Thuringia on 1st September.
“His center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is hovering around 5% in opinion polls in both Saxony and Thuringia. That is a knife-edge — 5% is the hurdle for representation in the state parliaments, and if the SPD fails to clear it, Scholz could face serious questions before the national election in the fall of 2025.”
“The elections here and in neighboring Saxony are now just days away, on September 1, and the AfD could well win both of them.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/german-government-s-future-in-danger-in-regional-elections/ar-AA1pEAp9
The AfD’s chances are likely to be improved in light of the Solingen stabbings by a Syrian “refugee”.
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/why-germany-is-questioning-migration-after-the-solingen-terror-attack/vi-AA1pFcl1?ocid=BingNewsVerp
>Hello? Why on earth would ANYONE invest in Australia companies when the same capital invested elsewhere will get better returns almost anywhere else on earth?
> Capital strike and capital flight was the order of the day.
As opposed to the capital flight that currently means all the money goes out to the low taxing countries anyway?
>It is good to see a Greens concerned about major existential issues.
So no discussion about possible solutions just a deflection?
Still a lot of confusion I see about the LGBT question.
“Sex” was and still is in the census, though last time the statistical result were pretty poor:
https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/analysis-non-binary-sex-responses
Resurrecting climate topics, Tasmania is on track for its warmest August ever, or at least since 1910 when data collection began.
On the weather front, we have also had some of our coldest days this past week, with snow in Hobart. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-29/tasmania-warmest-august-ends-with-snow/104285174
In Launceston, Spring has sprung. In or garden, we have tulips in bud for the first time in seven years – which indicates at least a few very cold (sub-zero) nights this past winter – which the tulips need to set flower.
I think that we should be looking to closing loopholes rather than increasing tax rates. It doesn’t matter what the rate is if a company can hide much of its profits through offshoring and accounting tricks.