YouGov has a new federal poll out showing a tie on two-party preferred, after Labor led 51-49 in the last such poll a month ago. Rounding clearly had something to do with the shift, because Labor is actually up a point on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition down one to 37%, with the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up one to 8%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval 52%, with Peter Dutton steady on 42% and up one to 47%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-38, in from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1543.
In other developments:
• Having exhausted every avenue to challenge his preselection defeat, all the way to the Supreme Court, right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has quit the Liberal Party and announced he will run at the next election under the banner of the Gerard Rennick People First party. The Australian points out that Rennick has “almost 320,000 followers on Facebook and Twitter”.
• Graham Perrett, who has held the Brisbane seat of Moreton for Labor since 2007, has announced he will retire at the next election. Perrett had hitherto resisted pressure to make way for Julie-Ann Campbell, Left faction colleague and the party’s state secretary, as the Queensland branch struggled to meet its affirmative action quota. A source quoted by Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review said Campbell had the numbers to win a contested preselection, and that Perrett’s backers in the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union had encouraged him to withdraw.
• The Liberals have chosen three candidates for seats in Perth: grains farmer Mic Fels in Swan, Gosnells councillor David Goode in Hasluck, and lawyer and former party staffer Sean Ayres in Burt. Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports Fels won the party vote in Swan by 38 to 34 ahead of Nick Marvin, former chief executive of the Perth Wildcats basketball and Western Force rugby league clubs.
• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals are hoping to enlist Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn, who will shortly lose her seat on council due to the party’s nominations fiasco, to take on teal independent Sophie Scamps in Mackellar.
• Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has announced that the Liberal National Party will restore optional preferential voting in the seemingly likely event that it wins the October 26 state election. Optional preferential voting was introduced by one Labor government in 1992, and unexpectedly abolished by another in 2016.
Royal Doulton says: Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 4:26 pm
I was just about to answer this, when I saw OC’s post on this subject:
Yep!!
We (me and OH) drove from Bonn to Dresden in 2006, heading for a conference in Prague. It was high summer, and we got a fantastic deal on a Hertz rental car, provided we when from airport to airport.
I remember the border observation posts when we stopped for lunch at a servo (service station) in Thuringia. There were lots of “Ossies” and “wessies” T-shirts for sale, making light of the long separation between the two Germanys, but the difference was palpable. We had entered “Central Europe”.
I remember working in Bonn, in 1994, and saying that I was delighted that Germany had reunified. My Rhineland colleagues definitely did not feel this way. I realise now that they had a fairly good idea from their parents and grandparents about how Prussia / Brandenburg felt about democracy and other freedoms.
The Rhineland was given to Prussia after the Napoleonic wars, but Berlin is a long way from Cologne, particularly in the cultural space.
As you say OC, Worries in Weimar.
The former Prussia / Brandenburg has little history of democracy, and that is palpable now, and probably explains well why the former East Germany will vote to go back to the authoritarians.
Another anecdote from our 2006 traverse of Germany: The former East Germany was prosperous, in ways that surprised me. There were shopping malls and Volkswagen cars. Childcare centres and the usual European thing about women / men on Dutch bicycles taking their children to daycare, while both partners when to work.
I was surprised. I had expected run down economies – but maybe you have to get out of the inner cities to see that.
But, when we got to Prague, it was so much more run down than my visit in circa 1994. The poverty was palpable, and surprised me, compared to 1994.
I felt that my 2006 trip from Bonn to Prague was an inversion of what I expected. The former East Germany seemed to be prosperous, and fully integrated into West Germany. But Prague seemed to have fallen into poverty and seediness, compared to what I had seen previously.
Make of that what you will.
About Grothendieck – a remarkable person, at least partly because how obscure he is to modern peeps.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/aug/31/alexander-grothendieck-huawei-ai-artificial-intelligence
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Grothendieck
D&M
But, but, but… any assessment of pre-unification East German properity that does not mention a Trabie…
I saw a Trabie driven in Erfurt- it was hard to miss with exhaust pouring out.
15 years since I was in Prague but at that time I agree, nice old buildings but shabby and poor and this after 20 years of capitalism
Absolute rubbish, the lurch to the right in Europe is nearly entirely driven by immigration. Don’t keep your head in the sand on this one, well PBs might be able to afford it but for the love of God I hope they don’t in Europe. If the centre parties do not address the public’s fears the scary right will come to power.
There isn’t a general lurch to the right in Europe. France and the UK are good examples of recent lurches to the left. If there is a consistent lurch (and I think there is) it’s a lurch away from incumbency. It’s happening across the western world as each country deals with its own post-covid economic woes – just as we are here – and the electorate blames its own incumbent government.
Luigi, on the UK I would say it was a lurch from incumbency, but I suspect (and the last few weeks of starmer policy all but proves it) that Labour is going to blow it, and reform will be there to jump on it.
The French on the other hand are doing an amazing job of left wing solidarity… to such a point that macron is chatting to lepen.
But yes, incumbency and the status quo are on life support, for good or ill
How the Scary Right* plans to come to power: get enough punters to believe that the Yes and No columns should be the other way around:
Why do they do it? It often works. Brexit. Trump 2016, hopefully not 2024.
* includes MAGA and the Dutton Liberals
They do it because it works. Create fear from anything. They were masters at it after 9/11.
The rapidly increasing levels of economic insecurity and inequality across many countries is the central reason why people are moving away from centrist parties. If people aren’t being well looked after then it isnt surprising that they start turning to anti-status quo parties of the populist left or right.
The govt talks about how concerned it is about social cohesion but seems to conveniently ignore that people being able to afford basic needs is the most important and urgent way to improve it.
If Trump wins the election the Democrats will need to take a good look at themselves.
The Democrats can do the talking, they are good with the rhetoric, but when it comes to implementing policies that win elections, they’re all HUFF and no PUFF.
Oops wrong thread lol
But I’m sure everyone here agrees 🙂
What a last round with the footy, five games of interest in the NRL.
Roosters may be smashed with injuries, huge blow for them!
Centre says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 9:23 pm
No everyone doesn’t agree… the US political system is specifically designed to make policy implementation impossible… that’s the way business likes it… they got exactly what they paid for.
Albo popularity says the latest Newspoll has slumped as far as personal approval goes.
Dutton fails to sway voters about inflation.Damn!
Newspoll ALP 32 L-NP 38 Green 12 ON 7 ind/others 11
50:50 (no change)
Albanese net -13 (41-54)
Dutton net -13 (39-52)
Better PM Albanese extends lead slightly to 45-37
Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings have slumped to the equal-lowest level since he became Prime Minister following the heated political battle over Palestinian visas, with Labor and the Coalition remaining locked in a dead-heat battle that would produce a hung parliament if an election were held this weekend.
But Peter Dutton is failing to convince voters the Coalition would be doing a better job than Labor at managing the inflation crisis if it were in government, as cost of living looms as the central issue in the broader electoral contest.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-anthony-albaneses-approval-ratings-drop-coalition-failing-to-win-over-voters-on-inflation/news-story/b14838d3e48d2d00a88c2add4c643bf9?amp
Centre @ #761 Sunday, September 1st, 2024 – 9:23 pm
There’s the big problem that the US political system is perfectly primed for obstructionism.
For any significant reform, it requires the same party being in power in the White House, House of Reps and Senate, and even in the Senate with a supermajority of 60 votes.
Only Obama in a window of less than a year achieved that in recent times, and he spent all of it attempting to reform US Healthcare.
At the moment the Republicans hold the US House of Reps, and the Democrats barely hold the Senate because of the whims of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. So the Biden administration hasn’t had even close of a chance of getting lasting policies implemented by the books.
Federal Newspoll
TPP: ALP 50 (0) L/NP 50 (0)
Primaries: ALP 32 (0) L/NP 38 (-1) GRN 12 (0) ON 7 (+1) Others 11 (0)
Preferred PM: Albanese 45 (-1) Dutton 37 (-2)
Albanese: Approve 41 (-2) Disapprove 54 (+3)
Dutton: Approve 39 (-1) Disapprove 52 (+2)
poll conducted 26-30 August with 1263 voters
https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-anthony-albaneses-approval-ratings-drop-coalition-failing-to-win-over-voters-on-inflation/news-story/b14838d3e48d2d00a88c2add4c643bf9
One Nation and the Libs combined have now overtaken Labor & the Greens combined.
New thread.
Can anyone honestly say they are surprised by tonights newspoll?
Hey Pied Piper
I’ve seen white people shop lifting at 711 stores in Perth. Maybe you’re just a nasty racist?
Luigi Smith says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 8:39 pm
There isn’t a general lurch to the right in Europe. France and the UK are good examples of recent lurches to the left. If there is a consistent lurch (and I think there is) it’s a lurch away from incumbency.
The UK result reflected the split in the Tory vote. The Labour vote barely moved. The split should be seen as a shift by Reactionary opinion away from more conventionally Conservative pragmatism. There is really not much doubt: parties of the Centre-Right are becoming notably more Rightist/Reactionary. This is a very troubling development. Neo-Fascist expression is becoming normalised.
This will mean that as electoral successes oscillate between reformist/egalitarian parties and rightist parties Far-Right assemblies will more often obtain power. This is more or less inevitable. Parties who premise their claims on hatred will score more wins. This is terrifying. The parties of hatred know it. They rejoice in it. Fear is their armament of choice. The least-well franchised will suffer the most.
The western world copped two years of very, very inflationary government action in 2020 and 21 due to covid coping measures. World logistic systems were in crisis immediately after that. We are ALL now enduring the anti-inflationary efforts of most governments (Russia excluded) to restore order and beat inflation. Folk think that it’s just their government’s fault and everything must be better with someone else at the tiller.
Sadly, it probably will be better in a year or two and the wrong governments will get all the credit.
Posted from other US thread
Confessionssays:
Monday, September 2, 2024 at 7:50 pm
Ahmen.
Samuel Sinyangwe@samswey
·
6h
I haven’t seen the Green Party improve a single thing in America for my entire life. If they never existed, at least two national elections could’ve gone another way. No George W. No Trump. That alone would’ve saved more than a million lives globally. As such, I hope that party and that Jill Stein lady never show up again in another election for as long as I live.
Staggering level of stupidity & greed & waste exhibited by council across Australia.
Brisbane e-scooter operator Beam loses licence over alleged breach of daily cap.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/sep/02/beam-e-scooters-brisbane-loses-licence-daily-cap
Do they expect the contractors to chuck the scooters in the tip or in the river? They should make every effort to work with the scooter providers to find a workable solution… it looks to be beyond them