YouGov has a new federal poll out showing a tie on two-party preferred, after Labor led 51-49 in the last such poll a month ago. Rounding clearly had something to do with the shift, because Labor is actually up a point on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition down one to 37%, with the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up one to 8%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval 52%, with Peter Dutton steady on 42% and up one to 47%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-38, in from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1543.
In other developments:
• Having exhausted every avenue to challenge his preselection defeat, all the way to the Supreme Court, right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has quit the Liberal Party and announced he will run at the next election under the banner of the Gerard Rennick People First party. The Australian points out that Rennick has “almost 320,000 followers on Facebook and Twitter”.
• Graham Perrett, who has held the Brisbane seat of Moreton for Labor since 2007, has announced he will retire at the next election. Perrett had hitherto resisted pressure to make way for Julie-Ann Campbell, Left faction colleague and the party’s state secretary, as the Queensland branch struggled to meet its affirmative action quota. A source quoted by Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review said Campbell had the numbers to win a contested preselection, and that Perrett’s backers in the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union had encouraged him to withdraw.
• The Liberals have chosen three candidates for seats in Perth: grains farmer Mic Fels in Swan, Gosnells councillor David Goode in Hasluck, and lawyer and former party staffer Sean Ayres in Burt. Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports Fels won the party vote in Swan by 38 to 34 ahead of Nick Marvin, former chief executive of the Perth Wildcats basketball and Western Force rugby league clubs.
• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals are hoping to enlist Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn, who will shortly lose her seat on council due to the party’s nominations fiasco, to take on teal independent Sophie Scamps in Mackellar.
• Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has announced that the Liberal National Party will restore optional preferential voting in the seemingly likely event that it wins the October 26 state election. Optional preferential voting was introduced by one Labor government in 1992, and unexpectedly abolished by another in 2016.
The Greens will tell people anything they think people want to hear.
They start with each other and work out from there.
frednk: “And have you noticed that the re population is through immigration.”
—————————————————————————
There are certainly a lot of newly-arrived migrants from overseas heading for the bush, but also a considerable number of Australian-born migrants out of the cities. As a general rule, I’ve found that the overseas migrants seem to be more visible on the inland plains – the Riverina, the Mallee and Wimmera, Shepparton and into the outback – while the Australian-born “migrants” are more often to be encountered along the Great Dividing Range, in the Victorian Goldfields region and the NSW Central West. And also along some of the coastal rivers of NSW (the Clarence, Richmond, Macleay, etc.)
But that’s all impressionistic.
Poliphili says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 11:57 am
He’s my Member and I am unaware of him having achieved anything of note for the Seat of Perth. Nothing. He’s looked after his own career quite nicely, though.
What’s your plan ?
Elmer Fudd says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 11:22 am
AfD has risen because of the breakdown in social cohesion in Germany due to the ridiculous open border immigration policy of Merkel and the EU.
‘Freedom’ of capitalism and consumerism is destroying the planet.
The future may require a need to save us from ourselves – more Govt regulation and consumer discipline.
Boerwar @ #700 Sunday, September 1st, 2024 – 3:02 pm
Better.
RD: “‘Freedom’ of capitalism and consumerism is destroying the planet.
The future may require a need to save us from ourselves – more Govt regulation and consumer discipline.”
——————————————————————————
Do you mean all those countries to the east of the Berlin Wall, where there was plenty of government control and consumers were very disciplined because there was f___ all to buy in the shops.
How did the environment go under that type of regime? Did you hear about what happened to the Aral Sea? How about Chernobyl?
Yeh look… this is where I point out that the Soviets were piss poor environmentalists as well, as is modern day China.
Something something not real communism, but regardless unless your a hunter gatherer society that somehow hasnt been assimilated or exterminated over the 21st century, no one gets a free pass…
FUBAR says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 3:16 pm
Elmer Fudd says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 11:22 am
AfD has risen because of the breakdown in social cohesion in Germany due to the ridiculous open border immigration policy of Merkel and the EU.
————-
Germany surrendered on 8 May 1945. 🙂
Imagine thinking the EU is ruining Germany… thats like saying NATO is ruining the US
That’s bloody funny – Albo claiming the LNP are going to take away the GST floor that they implemented.
He really must think that West Australians are idiots.
Rikali
It’s only a correlation but …… islamic countries have the highest fertility rates
Religious Freedom is Supportive of Higher Fertility
It is difficult to overstate the impact of religiosity (both belief and religious attendance) on birthrates.
—————
I realise I misread the graph, as I am prone to do.
The headline stated a correlation between religiosity and fertility. Islamic countries are on the high religiosity end and i mistakenly assumed they were all high fertility.
Interesting that Andrew Bragg confirmed this morning on Insiders that the coalition was considering withholding GST payments to the states and territories if they do not meet housing targets.
Fits in well with the labor online advertisements I would think. Confirmation directly from the mouth of the shadow housing spokesperson.
Thanks Andrew.
Fed labor cannot grow the economy enough so unemployment goes up.
Even if they can grow the economy inflation will go through the roof because labor imported 1 million people into the country.
NDIS only growth in economy and migrants ,private enterprise in recession.
Percapita recession also longest for decades 5 quarters in a row.
“ It is difficult to overstate the impact of religiosity (both belief and religious attendance) on birthrates.”
The point you are missing is the link between poverty and fertility. Poverty also accounts for increased religiosity.
“Fertility rates tend to be higher in poorly resourced countries…In developing countries children are needed as a labour force and to provide care for their parents in old age. In these countries, fertility rates are higher due to the lack of access to contraceptives and generally lower levels of female education. The social structure, religious beliefs, economic prosperity and urbanisation within each country are likely to affect birth rates”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4255510/
Yeah that’s great Fubar. Use the immigration issue to mask white arian race supremacist ideology except its not Jews they’re after this time, it’s those pesky Muslims. AfD forever. Watch out when you see Muslim people walking past your favourite coffee shop in Perth Central, they might be breeding terrorists . Outrageous !!
Thank you Eddy!
Cause and correlation matters… again, its why you can have theocratic countries below replacement birthrates, and supposed secular republics with birth rates well above it.
BW – plenty of examples of demographers loudly proclaiming the need to deal with ageing population by increasing immigration. Of course they don’t explain how to fix the same recurring problem each generation.
Yet to see an article by a demographer (in the usual media at least) carefully explaining how population aging can be managed without major immigration.
Of course the usual suspects in the housing industry and retail industries are much louder than demographers.
Spence, why dont the Greens have a solution to human mortality rates! /s
Elmer Fudd says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 3:56 pm
Why do you think AfD has arisen and generated support in Germany?
They are far more than the fringe neo-Nazi groups that exist throughout western democracies.
mb
What’s your solution to sustaining the planet, the ecosystem and the human race …?
Former MP Craig Kelly has left Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, 6 News understands.
Kelly, who left the Liberal Party and joined the United Australia Party (UAP) in 2021 before losing his seat at the 2022 federal elction, was appointed as One Nation’s national director in February.
However, reports indicate he and Hanson have disagreed in recent months, leading him to leave the party. Overnight, he removed “National Director [of] Pauline Hanson’s One Nation” from his Twitter bio, seemingly confirming the reports. Kelly has not publicly tweeted the phrase “One Nation” since June 9.
It’s not the only defection One Nation has suffered this year − last month, Queensland state MP Stephen Andrew quit the party after being disendorsed for this October’s state election.
https://www.6newsau.com/post/craig-kelly-quits-pauline-hanson-s-one-nation
Desperate times for fed labor government GST scare campaigns ,personal attacks on Dutton and 57-43 into now 50-50.
Commonwealth Games Scotland has confirmed the State government Of Victoria -labor party-is paying 200 million so Scotland can host the comm games.
150 billion in debt soon Vic so why not eh!
“Why do you think AfD has arisen and generated support in Germany?”
Declining economic circumstance
A summary of Liberal v Liberal.
https://citynews.com.au/2024/courageous-truth-or-fiction-trial-probes-higgins-saga/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
‘Royal Doulton says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 4:26 pm
“Why do you think AfD has arisen and generated support in Germany?”
Declining economic circumstance’
———————-
True but it is vital to acknowledge the impact of over a million refugees per year.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 4:21 pm
Former MP Craig Kelly has left Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, 6 News understands.
________________
Next stop the DLP?
RD: “What’s your solution to sustaining the planet, the ecosystem and the human race …?”
—————————————————————————–
Targeted regulation and consumer choices will play a part, but they are only a small piece of the answer IMO. I believe the greatest hope lies in advances in science and engineering, backed by the good economic laws of supply and demand, cost-benefit, etc.
The economic concept of the “tragedy of the commons” is crucial here. As long as it is possible to make money by doing the wrong thing, someone somewhere will be doing that, and as dictators like Putin have shown, some of those someones are able to carry on doing the wrong thing in the face of global sanctions, at least for a time.
In the mid-2010s, global emissions of ozone layer-depleting CFCs – which had been internationally banned since the 1990s – surged due to emissions coming from an unknown source or sources. Eventually the emissions were tracked down to some factories in China and pressure on the Chinese Communist regime saw them cease. But there is no reason that they couldn’t rise again due to similar activity in another authoritarian and/or rogue nation.
The beauty of engineered solutions to climate change and other forms of environmental damage is that they are capable of outcompeting dirty forms of production. We are starting to see that with renewable energy for power grids and soon, I hope, with EVs as well (and I think hybrids are pretty much already there). We are also going to need scientists and engineers to develop inventions that can mitigate and hopefully reverse some of the impacts of past bad practices.
As I’ve posted before, I differ with most people on the left side of the political spectrum in my rather negative assessment of human nature. I believe that there are plenty of unprincipled bad actors in the world who would be perfectly prepared to destroy it in order to enrich themselves and their families in the short term. These people are beyond being educated or enlightened. The best way to circumvent them is to make it easier for them to enrich themselves in sustainable ways than in non-sustainable ways. That will take time, but we are slowly getting there.
Spence, why dont the Greens have a solution to human mortality rates! /s
—————-
The Greens solution is people just need to identify as “immortal”.
Albo and Jodie’s decision to wait till after the next election to get married makes sense.
After the next election Albo’s going to have a lot more time to spend with the family. If you know what I mean.
Ho ho ho Rikali, you are funny!
Maybe you should stop identifying as a transphobic individual next 🙂
MB, my concern is that the hope in science is eventually going to reach its peak.
Do I think theres a chance fusion can be successfully utilised to basically solve our energy concerns? Certainly… but theres also the very real chance that humanity is reaching the peak of what can be done.
And while the ozone zone case is a useful case study, I would argue climate change is alot nastier to deal with because
a) fossil fuels basically power everything, compared to the relative nicheness of CFC usefulness and
b) while certain companies lost out during the CFC phase out, entire nation states (quite wealthy ones) would need to bite the bullet and give it up, which… has proven to be unlikely so far.
Good comment mb.
Voters play a most important role.
Voting for political outfits that are captured by ‘bad actors’ isn’t the answer.
Voters need to break lifetime voting habits. It’s not that hard to do.
Worries in Weimar.
It is no surprise that AfD, Die Linke and BSW, parties with a tenuous connection with democracy, are expected to win nearly 2 out of 3 votes in Thuringia.
A relative short history of democracy after nearly 55 years of authoritarian rule in a region that is significantly poorer than the rest of the nation. The promises of Kohl and Merkel have not been realised.
I had a holiday right on the border of Thuringia about 10 years ago – the border observation posts were still in the woods outside the resort. The difference in prosperity and the different attitudes of the people between east and west was palpable.
‘Science and engineering’ is only as effective as Govt’s allow.
Captured Govt’s don’t particularly favour science and engineering.
OC, thats what happens when the “stable” centre left party stops being left.
But then this fragmentation is what we are seeing pretty much everywhere, and for Germany there is a…. concerning similarity to the patterns of the 1920s and 30s
Lordbain, yes SPD may fall below the 5% threshold and not enter the Thuringian parliament. Grüne and FDP will certainly be excluded. But Germany is not having the usual Pasokification
, Die Linke has had a major split and seen as Immigration friendly – its vote will go from 1st with 30% to 4th at mid-teens. This leaves BSW as the populist left but she is stuck in the high teens.
CDU may be the only “adult” party with seats at 20%. Either they will have to decide who they like least or the distribution of unrepresented will put Afd over the line.
How long do we have to wait for ‘engineered solutions’?
Yeah sure Fubar. Whatever you say.
No wait your right Fubar. AfD are Islamophobic and deny the existence of climate change. Happy Days.
David Rowe!!!!!!
In case the waters were not muddy enough, Albotross adds some more mud:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-01/anthony-albanese-census-gender-identity-intersex/104296702?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=link
WTF is this Government on?
Hamas is murdering hostages so that the Israelis do not free them:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-01/israel-recovers-bodies-of-six-hostages-in-gaza/104296886?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=link
… but Israel is the evil actor. Own it.
Shark nets off beaches are unsupported by scientific evidence and cause massive harm to sharks that probably wouldn’t have bitten anyone, non-target animals such as seals and whales. Get rid of them.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-01/nsw-calls-for-government-to-take-next-step-and-get-rid-of-shark-/104296510?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=link
Rikali @ #731 Sunday, September 1st, 2024 – 4:51 pm
Proof that this thread had gone to shit.
FUBAR: “In case the waters were not muddy enough, Albotross adds some more mud”
——————————————————————————-
I reckon the excuse of the questions being too complex and therefore the government decided not to proceed with them is the worst one I’ve heard yet.
Labor made an election commitment to have one or more questions on sexual preference and to somehow get some data on transgender people. If the solution that the ABS came up with was no good, what ministers and Prime Ministers would normally do is scream and yell at the bureaucrats for a bit and then send them back to their offices come up with a better solution. There was surely enough time (the best part of two years) for that to happen, so what was the urgency of pulling the plug on the questions now?
I still reckon the plug was pulled because senior Labor figures were worried about how devout migrant people of Western Sydney – particularly but not exclusively Muslims – would respond to the exercise: particularly in the wake of Payman’s schism. Then , when they found that the response from the LGBT+ community was worse than they had expected, they felt compelled to back down.
BK:
That’s a Rowe I never wanted to see!
Fess: “That’s a Rowe I never wanted to see!”
He has become the 21st century Hieronymous Bosch (by which I mean the 15th-16th century Flemish painter and not the 20th-21st century fictional detective).
‘FUBAR says:
Sunday, September 1, 2024 at 6:26 pm
Hamas is murdering hostages so that the Israelis do not free them:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-01/israel-recovers-bodies-of-six-hostages-in-gaza/104296886?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=link
… but Israel is the evil actor. Own it….’
—————————–
And we know this because…
….
Just some of the problems with this:
1. All actors in this conflict lie. Routinely. Without blinking.
2. Most of the dead hostages to date have been killed by way of the old ‘collateral’ damage.
3. Netanyahu has (a) stated he wanted peace and (b) linked his refusal to engage in peace to the ‘murder of hostages’.
4. Hamas is, IMO, quite capable of murdering hostages, but anyone who actually believes what is coming from the mouths of ANY of the genocidal maniacs is being taken for a ride.
Western Sydney voted against gay marriage referendum.
Cannot understand why labor jumped on Palestinian cause giving hope then when they could not denounce Israels right to exist they were set upon by Payman and a new Muslim party.