YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)

Yet another poll showing a lineball result on two-party preferred, plus a summary of recent preselection and other developments.

YouGov has a new federal poll out showing a tie on two-party preferred, after Labor led 51-49 in the last such poll a month ago. Rounding clearly had something to do with the shift, because Labor is actually up a point on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition down one to 37%, with the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up one to 8%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval 52%, with Peter Dutton steady on 42% and up one to 47%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-38, in from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1543.

In other developments:

• Having exhausted every avenue to challenge his preselection defeat, all the way to the Supreme Court, right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has quit the Liberal Party and announced he will run at the next election under the banner of the Gerard Rennick People First party. The Australian points out that Rennick has “almost 320,000 followers on Facebook and Twitter”.

• Graham Perrett, who has held the Brisbane seat of Moreton for Labor since 2007, has announced he will retire at the next election. Perrett had hitherto resisted pressure to make way for Julie-Ann Campbell, Left faction colleague and the party’s state secretary, as the Queensland branch struggled to meet its affirmative action quota. A source quoted by Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review said Campbell had the numbers to win a contested preselection, and that Perrett’s backers in the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union had encouraged him to withdraw.

• The Liberals have chosen three candidates for seats in Perth: grains farmer Mic Fels in Swan, Gosnells councillor David Goode in Hasluck, and lawyer and former party staffer Sean Ayres in Burt. Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports Fels won the party vote in Swan by 38 to 34 ahead of Nick Marvin, former chief executive of the Perth Wildcats basketball and Western Force rugby league clubs.

Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals are hoping to enlist Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn, who will shortly lose her seat on council due to the party’s nominations fiasco, to take on teal independent Sophie Scamps in Mackellar.

• Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has announced that the Liberal National Party will restore optional preferential voting in the seemingly likely event that it wins the October 26 state election. Optional preferential voting was introduced by one Labor government in 1992, and unexpectedly abolished by another in 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

776 comments on “YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 16
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  1. WB: “Labor is actually up a point on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition down one to 37%, with the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up one to 8%.”

    But they are down on 2PP by 1%. Go figure.

  2. William. I think you mean Georgia Ryburn might take on Sophie Scamps.

    However I do love the idea of two candidates with the same name going head to head. A Comedy of Errors sort of scenario.

  3. I missed the thread cutover.

    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2024 at 9:38 pm

    Very good summary. Shorten never got the top job, but what he has done to strengthen NDIS should be applauded.

    Spence said as well, a program that was running at 17% growth was a program that was about to break. State education programs were shifting every behavioural issue to NDIS. 10% of boys in primary school on the NDIS, it was never ever supposed to be a replacement for educational management. But the criminals in the Coalition tried to break the NDIS by allowing it to drown.

    Labor fixed the NDIS so it works for the people who should be supported by it. Again the Greens weren’t going to allow this to happen.

  4. Labor created the NDIS mess in the past two years like so many other ongoing fiascos of its own making.Shorten unpopular in electorate rejected lost election but still labor persist having him all over the media.

    Libs laughing all the way to the ballot box.

    Economists many are predicting economic growth will be flat or negative next week when the GDP figures are out.

    Oh Labor inflation too high,unemployment increasing and economic growth zeroish.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The Greens present a genuine threat to the Albanese government, but a misstep this week may pose a bigger risk to themselves, writes David Crowe who reckons the Greens sent an attack dog to savage Labor, but he wonders if it dug up the wrong dirt.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-greens-sent-an-attack-dog-to-savage-labor-but-did-it-dig-up-the-wrong-dirt-20240828-p5k61b.html
    Phil Coorey agrees, saying Labor should invest in demonising Bandt as well as Dutton.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-should-invest-in-demonising-bandt-as-well-as-dutton-20240828-p5k65n
    Max Chandler-Mather’s decision this week to climb onto a stage in support of the embattled CFMEU was a high-risk strategy that ended in a spectacular own goal for the savvy 32-year-old Greens’ MP and his party. From every angle, writes Madonna King, Chandler-Mather’s loud support looked like an endorsement of a union which stands accused of violence, gross misogyny, and enveloping a culture that is toxic to the core.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2024/08/29/max-chandler-mather-cfmeu
    The chief executive of the country’s largest lender, Commonwealth Bank’s Matt Comyn, has attacked what he says are insidious and performative populist policies on all sides of politics, highlighting the rising tensions between Canberra and big business. Singling out a pledge from the Greens to extract $514 billion from major corporations and a Labor push to limit credit card fees, Mr Comyn said voters were being presented with a “false dichotomy: for a company to earn any sort of income or profit, it is often inferred or related … as somehow being unjustly extracted from consumers”.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/comyn-blasts-greens-for-insidious-populist-bank-bashing-20240829-p5k6bd
    Nick Bryant tells us why Tim Walz would be the perfect coach for Team Albo. He has a point.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-tim-walz-would-be-the-perfect-coach-for-team-albo-20240828-p5k611.html
    ‘Hot mic’ moment aside, the Albanese government’s Pacific policing deal is a masterstroke of diplomacy, writes Michael O’Keefe.
    https://theconversation.com/hot-mic-moment-aside-the-albanese-governments-pacific-policing-deal-is-a-masterstroke-of-diplomacy-237663
    Australia’s experience over the past three years of the highest inflation in 35 years is in large part — as it has been in other countries — the result of producers of goods and services, in both the private and public sectors, being able to pass on increases in costs to their customers or clients in the form of higher prices, writes Saul Eslake who says ‘price-gouging’ and ‘profiteering’ have not been major contributors to Australian inflation.
    https://johnmenadue.com/price-gouging-and-profiteering-havent-been-major-contributors-to-australian-inflation/
    Michelle Pini discusses the alacrity with which the incoming Northern Territory CLP Government aims to lower the age of criminal responsibility, among other Draconian measures.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/nt-kicks-off-opportunity-plan-by-locking-up-children-and-throwing-away-key,18922
    Tim Duggan wonders if the right-to-disconnect could represent the start of a workplace revolution. Experts from either side have hailed or savaged the new law, depending on their viewpoint, but he offers a more hopeful one.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/is-the-right-to-disconnect-the-start-of-a-workplace-revolution-20240829-p5k6cq.html
    Neither Labor nor Coalition MPs can say with 100 per cent certainty who will lead them to the next Victorian election. That’s not to say any threat to either of the major party leaders – Jacinta Allan or John Pesutto – is imminent, says Annika Smethurst, but it’s a reflection of the concern across parliament that the current leaders may not present them with the best chance of winning in 2026.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-more-than-dan-dilemma-allan-has-to-convince-voters-and-colleagues-quickly-20240828-p5k65b.html
    “Have we heard the CFMEU’s last hurrah or seen the start of its trench warfare?”, asks Michelle Grattan.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-have-we-heard-the-cfmeus-last-hurrah-or-seen-the-start-of-its-trench-warfare-237751
    For the first time in living memory, Qantas shareholders took a hit for the team. That said, it wasn’t a big one, writes Elizabeth Knight who tells us how Vanessa Hudson scored on her maiden Qantas result.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/how-vanessa-hudson-scored-on-her-maiden-qantas-result-20240829-p5k6by.html
    Star Entertainment is poised to write down assets and announce a major cost-cutting program as its new chief executive, Steve McCann, attempts to shore up the struggling casino’s financial position ahead of a release of a critical report into its conduct, writes Zoe Samios.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/games-and-wagering/star-rushes-to-shore-up-its-finances-ahead-of-damning-review-findings-20240829-p5k6gx
    Assistant Health Minister Ged Kearney has taken a rare step in breaking with the government’s position, following backbenchers Josh Burns and Peter Khalil. It was a strange decision to leave the question out and pushback was inevitable.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-lgbtq-census-ban-will-strengthen-division-sex-discrimination-commissioner-20240829-p5k6bb.html
    Calum Jaspan and Michaela Whitbourn report that thirteen women have come forward with claims against veteran crime reporter Robert Ovadia, his former employer Seven alleged in the first hearing of his unlawful dismissal case in the Federal Court.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/thirteen-women-come-forward-with-claims-about-robert-ovadia-court-told-20240829-p5k6a3.html
    With rioting reaching fever pitch in the UK, it’s time to reflect on the causes and possible solutions to this period of civil unrest, writes Vince Hooper.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/rule-britannia-the-art-of-rioting-for-beginners,18927
    Farrah Tomazin reports heading to Georgia, a key battleground state in the US election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/kamala-harris-is-off-to-a-deep-south-republican-stronghold-so-am-i-20240829-p5k6bv.html
    Donald Trump has reposted a crudely misogynistic comment about Kamala Harris on Truth Social in a move that reprised his past record of sexist behaviour and brazenly flouted pleas from members of his own party to emphasize issues over personal attacks. With fresh polls showing Harris further improving her standing – and widening the gap with her opponent among women voters – Trump drew online opprobrium by sharing a vulgar post on his social media site implying that the Democratic nominee owed her political rise to sexual favours.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/29/donald-trump-kamala-harris-sexist-post
    The Democrats sound less lofty, more earthy – and it’s working, writes Margaret Sullivan.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/29/kamala-harris-campaign-high-road

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding

    Cathy Wilcox

    Fiona Katauskas

    Glen Le Lievre with a gif

    https://x.com/i/status/1828986559716286970
    Andrew Dyson

    Simon Letch

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US
















  6. Resources Minister Madeleine King has gone to war with BHP in an extraordinary spray, attacking one of Australia’s biggest tax­payers and employers for always “railing against” Labor policies and refusing to work productively with union leaders.
    Anthony Albanese’s most senior cabinet minister in Western Australia, a mining powerhouse state where Labor is desperate to hold seats at the next election, also took aim at what she labelled ­“hysteria” whipped up by the ­Coalition and resources figures about unions in the industry and the ­impact of Labor’s industrial ­relations crackdown.
    “Yes, we are a Labor government,” Ms King said on Thursday. “The government’s bargaining ­reforms are working as intended – our reforms were designed to ­encourage employers back to the bargaining table.”
    In a Q&A session following a speech to business figures in Perth spruiking the importance of gas, Ms King stunned audience members when she took aim at BHP for complaining to the media about not “liking” that the “Australian Labor Party in government will work in the interest of workers”.
    Ms King – usually a pro-­industry Labor MP who holds the seat of Brand on Perth’s southern outskirts – doubled down in a news conference, saying BHP had ­“always railed against Labor policy whether in opposition or in ­government”. “And they’re the first to go to the Murdoch press (News Corp is publisher of The Australian) to do a story around what they don’t like about what a Labor government chooses to do, and it wouldn’t matter what it is,” she said.
    The attack on BHP comes ahead of the Prime Minister convening a full ministry meeting early next week in Western Australia, where mining has underpinned jobs and economic growth over generations.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/madeleine-king-accuses-bhp-of-opposing-labor-policies-not-working-with-unions/news-story/3cc7c2536f894e75368d848fc5e68c97?amp

  7. Labor state WA treasurer is defending the GST deal publicly seems fed labor are getting the wobbles.
    Also Who was the genius in labor federally that has started a war with the miners regarding unionisation of mining sites in an election year???

    Libs shut up and let labor do its stuff!

  8. Assistant Health Minister Ged Kearney has taken a rare step in breaking with the government’s position, following backbenchers Josh Burns and Peter Khalil. It was a strange decision to leave the question out and pushback was inevitable.
    _____________________
    Has anyone heard from Wong.

  9. Referencing yesterday evening’s posts
    @Lordbain
    Scullin is certainly titanium Safe Labor next time. It could possibly be lost in the 2030s if the post-plague realignment continues.
    @Elmer Fudd
    1)
    The Greens – because Dutton’s a wrecker, and some Liberal voters will think tactically (put Labor last mentality.
    Any independent – because they mostly talk about hyper-local grievances other than the situation in Gaza, but still win the Muslim votes. Look at how the British Labour Party haemorrhaged in Muslim-heavy areas, not solely to Muslim Independents.
    2)
    A punish all sitting members “Labor and Liberal are the same” mentality. It doesn’t swing many votes, but it will swing some.
    3)
    Look at the UK election results, particularly Huddersfield. The Greens in Australia have been more strongly pro-Palestine (to the point of stoking communalist tensions) than Labor.
    As promised, another 11 seats from the Muslim Votes Matter target list.
    Lalor: A fast-growing seat on the western edge of Melbourne. This is slowly trending away from Labor, but the margin is simply too big, and the Muslim vote is too small to sink Joanne Ryan at 10.2%. Safe Labor.
    Macarthur: A fast-growing seat on the south-western edge of Sydney. This is slowly trending away from Labor, but the margin is simply too big, and the Muslim vote is too small to sink Mike Freelander at 9.8%. Some chance of a hyper-local Independent, though. Likely Labor.
    Chifley: Ed Husic will have a much better chance of holding on than Chris Bowen and Tony Burke. This area has been titanium ALP since it became part of Sydney. It won’t go Tory, but an Indy can’t be ruled out. Likely ALP.
    Barton: This is an open seat, but it is slowly gentrifying. Not quickly enough to get the Greens a victory, even if they get a higher than normal share of the Muslim vote. Safe ALP.
    Burt: This isn’t going to be lost. Matt Keogh is a strong MP who will be re-elected with north of 43% primary. Safe ALP.
    Fowler: Labor will have a hard time winning this back. Le won’t get the same favourable Liberal preference flows as last time, but will win more Muslim votes in the Liverpool area. As much as I hate to say this, Likely IND.
    Gorton: This could slowly be under pressure, particularly with the retirement of a 23-year MP. The ALP primary here is quickly collapsing. Probably more of a seat to watch in 2027/28 but Likely ALP.
    Gellibrand: This is the perfect fit for today’s ALP. Socially progressive, but not too lefty. Tim Watts is also a great MP. Safe ALP.
    Rankin: The sitting treasurer will not lose his own seat. The Muslim population here is too small to have a large impact. Safe ALP.
    Cowan: A correction towards the Libs in WA could leave this vulnerable, but I think Anne Aly is a strong enough MP to withstand it. Likely ALP.
    Banks: The Libs never relied on a large chunk of Muslim votes to win this. This seat is getting wealthier and hence turning hideous for Labor. Safe Lib if Coleman runs again. Likely Lib if he retires.
    I will do the remaining 11 later today.

  10. Late Risersays:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 7:33 am
    #weatheronPB
    A sharp bright welcome,
    invites me in to explore.
    Leave your house. There’s time.
    _____________________
    Good advice. There are a few bludgers who would have clocked up over 60 hours this week.
    Time to get out and smell the roses.

  11. ‘Asha says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2024 at 9:59 pm

    However there IS some hard evidence on the pseph site.

    The latest change in Bludger track has the Greens going DOWN .1% and the Coalition going UP .3%.

    I’d love to hear what an actual pseph has to say about this, er, evidence.’
    —————————–
    In Bludger track the Coalition was on plus 2.2%. The latest edit has it on +2.5%.
    The Greens were on +.6%. In the edit before this they went to +.5%. In the latest edit they have gone down to +.4%.
    Dutton and Bandt delaying and blocking and Dutton’s attack on Gazan refugees are working.
    For Dutton.
    The Greens are useful idiots for Dutton.

  12. I maintain my (apparently quite controversial?) view that Bill Shorten would have, and could be, an excellent Prime Minister despite the media hit jobs from both extremes of the spectrum.

    Even if I agree with the broad Labor agenda, I have a particular disdain for parliamentary lifers (Albo not having had a real job), and Chalmers is an economic lightweight.

  13. There are a few bludgers who would have clocked up over 60 hours this week.

    ——————
    Who’s our PB union rep, surely we deserve a 4 day week.

  14. Bizz, I don’t even think that’s controversial; I agree that Shorten would have done a better job, and raising point from earlier in thr week, Shorten strikes me as someone who can bounce back after a failure, where as Albo, from reports by those who know them, seems to to get quite morose after a stuff up ( the stuff up in the first week of campaigning supposably had him in low spirits until after he recovered from covid).

    And I see the greens are still the hot topic (while i disagree with some of crowes assumptions regarding polling it’s certainly a better article then others we have seen this week, and highlights the greens strategy of focused targeting versus broad campaigning seat wise))

  15. The final 11 seats on the target list.
    Greenway: This is a Labor-trending seat in the North of Sydney. There will be a correction here, but Minister Rowland will likely hold on. Likely ALP.
    Fraser: This is also primed for a potential boilover. Daniel Mulino will keep bleeding votes to Greens/Vic Socialists in the City of Maribyrnong portion of the seat. 5.7% of the population is Muslim, so I doubt there will be a dedicated Muslim independent. That means much of that vote, which would have been strong for Labor in 2022 will leak to Greens or Trots. The Greens could win from third if they get Tory preferences (as Vic Socialists preferences push the Greens over the Tories). If Tories preference ALP over Greens, Safe ALP. If Tories preference Greens over ALP, Lean ALP.
    Swan: This will have a correction swing to the Tories, but Zaneta Mascarenhas will probably survive. Lean ALP.
    Mitchell: This is often the safest Liberal seat in metropolitan Australia. Labor can’t win this. Titanium safe Libs. It isn’t teal country (it actually voted No in 2017!)
    Fenner: This is a very safe Labor seat and always has been. This will be the last Labor seat left standing if social democracy collapses in Australia. Safe ALP.
    Makin: This is a funny seat. It has moved toward Labor over the past two decades, likely due to Zappia. If he retires, this will be Likely ALP as he may carry a large personal vote who are otherwise quite conservative. If he stays, Safe ALP.
    Moreton: Labor WILL lose votes here, particularly with the retirement of Perrett. If Labor come third, the Greens win. If the Greens come third, Labor wins. If the LNP comes third, hard to say. Lean ALP.
    Isaacs: The new boundaries help Labor here quite a bit. The Libs will presumably have a scandal free candidate for the first time since 2016. But Dreyfus will win with a reduced majority. Safe ALP.
    Spence: This is an interesting electorate. It is mostly a test of Labor’s popularity with WWC voters who were strongly No in 2023. I would expect a significant swing to the Liberals here but not enough to threaten Matt Burnell. In terms of probability of losing, Safe ALP. But I would expect the margin to be around 56-44.
    Cooper: Ged Kearney is a strongly left-wing ALP MP. If the Tories put the Greens last, this is a likely ALP seat. If the Tories put the ALP last, this is a tilt ALP seat. Darebin council will be a test of where ALP and Greens stand here.
    Hawke: This is trending away from Labor. I doubt it will be lost this time, but anything can happen so I guess it will be Likely ALP.

  16. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The news is a mixed bag for Labor today and this week.

    There is valid grounds for some criticism, like the divisive decision to “avoid” a divisive debate over identifying LGBTIQ people in the census. A classic own-goal.

    There are some absurd grounds for criticism, like Green Max Chandler-Moore’s embrace of the CFMEU after it was found to be corrupt, and silly complaint about government taking a very necessary action against the CFMEU.

    Amongst this there has been some good governing, like the Pacific Policing Initiative, and lower inflation resulting from the energy cost rebate. Labor needs to focus on these, and not get distracted by the rest.

  17. Obviously a bad call politically by Labor on the Census when 3 MP’s feel the need to publically announce they don’t agree with it – clearly isn’t going down well in inner city seats. Correct for Labor to reverse it but the damage is kind of done now that the headlights are shining on it for the anti-woke brigade to howl at and it was totally avoidable if they just left it as is.

  18. Good Morning
    On the census

    Good decision Mr Albanese.

    If this becomes divisive now it’s going to be clear who is being divisive.

  19. [‘The government has backflipped on adding a question about sexuality to the census.

    “We’ve been talking with the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and they’re going to test for a new question, one question about sexuality, sexual preference,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on ABC radio on Friday morning.

    When pushed by ABC presenter Raf Epstein on why the government has backflipped, Albanese said his government was focused more on cost of living issues.

    “We haven’t sat down and gone through, line by line, what questions will be asked in the census in two years time,” Albanese said.

    The backflip comes after several Labor MPs including Josh Burns called on the prime minister to reverse the decision.

    Speaking on ABC radio Melbourne after Albanese, Burns said he was pleased with the outcome.

    “I definitely welcome the prime minister’s comments this morning. I think that they go to making sure people are counted, and I think that they go to the work that we’re doing to ensure that we are collecting the best data possible to feed into government services as part of the census,” he said.’] – SMH

  20. I don’t care.

    We face existential problems: climate change, an economy that is failing to attract much by way of foreign investment, an increasingly open and draconian global trade war targeted against China – our major customer, an increasingly anti-business populism, a mining sector which is selling into a rapidly declining Chinese economy, genocidal maniacs in the Middle East, Russia’s continuing invasion of Ukraine, Houthi interdiction of one of our major trade routes, aggressive physical violence by China against the Philippines in the South China Sea, a debt of a trillion dollars, persistent inflation, stagnant productivity growth, the Anthropocene Extinction Event, a dying Reef, and an ageing population.

    We should be focusing on those issues.

    As for the Greens wringing their hands about divisiveness, give me a break! What twaddle. They create division. They thrive on it. It makes them feel like they are going to be running Australia in a few year’s time.

    Dutton and Bandt should stop encouraging hate and start listening to the DG ASIO.

    But they won’t.

    They like division.

  21. Re: LGBT census,

    If I was stupidity conspiratorial, an “honest mistake guv'” decision that flooded the media with one sided pro-LGBT commentary (I say that positively) is one way to muster the community ahead of a right wing scare campaign. Would the community have been as vocal (or had a strong media presence) if the conservatives had the first say?

    If the reversal is true that is… and illustrative of the “4D” chess view of modern politics.

    In the same fortnight that Shorten saved the NDIS, Chalmers and team couldn’t do the census…

  22. I see someone isnt happy with Labors change 😉

    But yeh, I reaaaallly hope the Greens with their new found attack dog attitude make one statement along the lines of its good labors made this change and then … dont attack on backflipping.

    If they do, ill be miffed…


  23. Lordbain says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2024 at 10:04 pm

    Fred, what exactly do you have against due process and the rule of law?

    News flash mate, the bit where the CFMEU is taking the legalization to the supreme court is the law bit.

    The Greens running around trying to undermine the will of parliament is not.

  24. BK

    “With rioting reaching fever pitch in the UK, it’s time to reflect on the causes and possible solutions to this period of civil unrest, writes Vince Hooper.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/rule-britannia-the-art-of-rioting-for-beginners,18927”
    ————
    I suppose this article is intended as “a bit ova lark”.

    It’s all due to a timeless trinity: economic inequality, social media and the weather!!

    Those presumably can account for every issue.

    Politicians are, quite conveniently, free of any and all responsibilities.

  25. We face existential problems: climate change, an economy that is failing to attract much by way of foreign investment, a drastic housing shortage, a politics increasingly based on racism and hatred and division, an increasingly open and draconian global trade war targeted against China – our major customer, an increasingly anti-business populism, a mining sector which is selling into a rapidly declining Chinese economy, genocidal maniacs in the Middle East, Russia’s continuing invasion of Ukraine, Houthi interdiction of one of our major trade routes, aggressive physical violence by China against the Philippines in the South China Sea, a debt of a trillion dollars, persistent inflation, stagnant productivity growth, the Anthropocene Extinction Event, a dying Reef, and an ageing population.

    And what creates a huge righteous moral panic froth? A single Census question.

    And now? The blowback from the right wing freaks who have been slavering for another opportunity which has duly been delivered and which will duly be astroturfed. I imagine that the growth in the Coalition and PHON 2PP polling will continue to grow.

    Enjoy!

  26. fred, if there are accusations about criminal undertakings in the CFMEU, why not report them and undertake the exact same process that, say, PwC would have undergone?

    Why does the ACT CFMEU branch need to be put into administration when there are no accusations of wrong doings? Does this mean that, say, if the Victorian Labor branch was found to be doing something naughty, all branches across the country should be put under administration?

    Mate, how do you not get the point… and what do you mean the will of parliament?

  27. If Adam Bandts populist decision to back Chandlet- Matthews speaking at a rally with “Albanazi’ signs and a coffin with Albos picture on will make him popular with all Greens voters and attract more voters to the Greens he might be deluded. In September last a poll had his net approval rating at -14%, in the most recent it was -19%. according to the David Crowe SMH story BK listed today and the yougov poll shows a steady PV around 13% no boost in the Greens PV for all the bluster and noise and demands he has been making for months now. In the NT the Greens talked up a big game but came away with 7% of the PV. More work to do there , starting with running candidates in every seat next time. The jury is still out on how the Greens “take no prisoners” (David Crowe) is going to pan out in Wills, Macnamara, Richmond, Perth, Moreton and Sturt as vote chaser tactics. There may also be Greens voters who are not happy with associating the brand with the CFMEU , coffins and nazi memes. this week. Bandt might end up polarising voters within his own party or being proclaimed as a genius strategist if his loud and proud populist antics pay off. What do they say, pick your fights carefully or you might get bitten on the rear. I think Bandt has gone too far for at least some would be Greens voters in Macnamara with a strong Jewish vote presence by picking a side on Gaza and backing a thug branded union elsewhere. It could even make the Teals more appealing for disenchanted Greens who want nothing to do with the CFMEU. Have a good day ev1

  28. Someone should start a table on Time Taken To Backflip…

    Australia news live: PM backflips on LGBTQ+ census question.. this one could be a record?

    Level of incompetence by Labor & Albo is remarkable.. the slide in polling without any major scandals is also incredible.. It took Liberals a decade to slip this far & how many changes in leadershit?

  29. EF
    Good post, IMO. It was not just Mindless Max standing up for the thugs and implicitly supporting the murder of Albanese.
    It is that the CFMEU had failed on the misogyny front. Max and the Mongol Misogynists.
    Nice!
    I am awaiting the usual righteous moral panic uproar from the usual Greens perps.
    Not!

  30. ‘Sceptic says:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 9:15 am

    Someone should start a table on Time Taken To Backflip…

    Australia news live: PM backflips on LGBTQ+ census question.. this one could be a record?

    Level of incompetence by Labor & Albo is remarkable.. the slide in polling without any major scandals is also incredible.. It took Liberals a decade to slip this far & how many changes in leadershit?’
    ——————————-
    What has Labor done wrong, actually? Compared with what it has got right? Remind me.

  31. “I think that from the government’s point of view, it requires that they actually govern and that they make decisions and this [idea that] ‘we’re not going to do this because there might be some sort of backlash, or there might be some sort of controversy, or we’re not going to do this because … we can’t be assured that there’s not going to be a debate’ is not really leadership and is not in the best interest of the country.”

    Bridget Archer gets it.

  32. I am sure that the Greens, ardent supporters of the union movement(!), would be ecstatic with what Dutton is going to do the IR legislation when they have helped him become prime minister.
    Same old, same old IR legislation coming your way.
    Enjoy.


  33. Lordbain says:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 9:14 am

    fred, if there are accusations about criminal undertakings in the CFMEU, why not report them and undertake the exact same process that, say, PwC would have undergone?

    Why does the ACT CFMEU branch need to be put into administration when there are no accusations of wrong doings? Does this mean that, say, if the Victorian Labor branch was found to be doing something naughty, all branches across the country should be put under administration?

    Mate, how do you not get the point… and what do you mean the will of parliament?

    Parliament decides the law, the supreme court decides if parliament works within the constitution.
    Your post is just small time whining. There is a problem that needs fixing, Labor has passed legislation to fix the problem. The supreme court will decide if it is constitutional. That is the way the Law works.

    What surprises me is the greens trying to protect the thugs. The whole dam lot of you wouldn’t last a day on a construction site.

  34. Hey William, you’ve got a typo in your posto (Sophie Scamps is not challenging Sophie Scamps, fun as the idea of deliberately causing confusion by running an identically named candidate would be).

    Good to see sense has prevailed quickly re the census and has not been drawn out. Whoever made the original decision – presumably Chalmers since the ABS is in his portfolio – needs some training wheels for creating the unnecessary imbroglio.

  35. EF, ill bite;

    Leader net ratings mean absolutely nothing; unpopular leaders win all the time, and popular leaders turn unpopular.

    PV of 13 is still above the 2022 election, and as the same article you pointed out notes, this hides that in certain areas its 14 plus. And during this time, Labor has lost potentially 4 percentage points.

    In the NT they got 7ish percent of the PV, which is basically double since the last election, and ignores that, again, the Greens dont run in every seat, and in certain seats (such as Fanny) were polling at 28 percent (above Labor). Also Labor lost a third of their first pref.

    Also I would love to know where your hearing Greens not happy; again anecdotally but the noise here in the ACT is that its nice to have a leader on the left that fights for the left (certainly isnt Albo).

    Also the tired old “by siding with Gaza your alienating the Jews” isnt backed by reality, as shockingly Jewish people can have a whole range of opinions on things (again, assuming ethnicities vote as a bulk is amateurish).

    And theres not that much overlap between Teals and Greens (which has been repeated ad nasuem) unless you are a high earning Green that is socially progressive and economically conservative (ie the mythical tree tory)

    But hey, lets see what happens 🙂

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