YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)

Yet another poll showing a lineball result on two-party preferred, plus a summary of recent preselection and other developments.

YouGov has a new federal poll out showing a tie on two-party preferred, after Labor led 51-49 in the last such poll a month ago. Rounding clearly had something to do with the shift, because Labor is actually up a point on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition down one to 37%, with the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up one to 8%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval 52%, with Peter Dutton steady on 42% and up one to 47%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-38, in from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1543.

In other developments:

• Having exhausted every avenue to challenge his preselection defeat, all the way to the Supreme Court, right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has quit the Liberal Party and announced he will run at the next election under the banner of the Gerard Rennick People First party. The Australian points out that Rennick has “almost 320,000 followers on Facebook and Twitter”.

• Graham Perrett, who has held the Brisbane seat of Moreton for Labor since 2007, has announced he will retire at the next election. Perrett had hitherto resisted pressure to make way for Julie-Ann Campbell, Left faction colleague and the party’s state secretary, as the Queensland branch struggled to meet its affirmative action quota. A source quoted by Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review said Campbell had the numbers to win a contested preselection, and that Perrett’s backers in the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union had encouraged him to withdraw.

• The Liberals have chosen three candidates for seats in Perth: grains farmer Mic Fels in Swan, Gosnells councillor David Goode in Hasluck, and lawyer and former party staffer Sean Ayres in Burt. Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports Fels won the party vote in Swan by 38 to 34 ahead of Nick Marvin, former chief executive of the Perth Wildcats basketball and Western Force rugby league clubs.

Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals are hoping to enlist Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn, who will shortly lose her seat on council due to the party’s nominations fiasco, to take on teal independent Sophie Scamps in Mackellar.

• Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has announced that the Liberal National Party will restore optional preferential voting in the seemingly likely event that it wins the October 26 state election. Optional preferential voting was introduced by one Labor government in 1992, and unexpectedly abolished by another in 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

776 comments on “YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)”

Comments Page 3 of 16
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  1. Children, up to and including teenagers, are probably the least likely group for this question to be reliable. Does anybody seriously think parents are always going to fill out the form on their kids’ behalf honestly, or even know the real answers, or let the kids fill it out themselves and not check what they wrote?

    If this question goes ahead, a few years from now the people who lobbied for it will be saying “According to the census, x percent of teenagers are *whatever*, but the real number is probably ten time x”, putting us right back where we started.

  2. Lordbain
    I think you are denigrating the alphabet community. My opinion only. The state and you should stay out of peoples bedrooms and let people dress as they like.

  3. “The state and you should stay out of peoples bedrooms and let people dress as they like.”

    Yeh, not exactly disproving the accusations your a bit of a homophobic wanker but anyways, you, mundo, Leader and all that can go make fun of people for being different and then feel smug about it

  4. I’m not making fun of anyone.
    One of my brothers is as gay as month of Sundays and he thinks the alphabet nonsense is nonsense.

  5. Whatever set of letters is settled on for the census, I think well need a “decode” footnote in the data set to enable folk to translate it all in 100 years time.

  6. Mexicanbeemer
    A lot of people put a lot of effort getting the state out of the bedroom. I find it unacceptable that there are people trying to get that unwound.

  7. –Resources Minister Madeleine King has gone to war with BHP in an extraordinary spray, attacking one of Australia’s biggest tax­payers and employers for always “railing against” Labor policies and refusing to work productively with union leaders.

    Anthony Albanese’s most senior cabinet minister in Western Australia, a mining powerhouse state where Labor is desperate to hold seats at the next election, also took aim at what she labelled ­“hysteria” whipped up by the ­Coalition and resources figures about unions in the industry and the ­impact of Labor’s industrial ­relations crackdown.

    “Yes, we are a Labor government,” Ms King said on Thursday. “The government’s bargaining ­reforms are working as intended – our reforms were designed to ­encourage employers back to the bargaining table.”

    In a Q&A session following a speech to business figures in Perth spruiking the importance of gas, Ms King stunned audience members when she took aim at BHP for complaining to the media about not “liking” that the “Australian Labor Party in government will work in the interest of workers”.

    Ms King – usually a pro-­industry Labor MP who holds the seat of Brand on Perth’s southern outskirts – doubled down in a news conference, saying BHP had ­“always railed against Labor policy whether in opposition or in ­government”.

    “And they’re the first to go to the Murdoch press (News Corp is publisher of The Australian) to do a story around what they don’t like about what a Labor government chooses to do, and it wouldn’t matter what it is,” she said.–

    I like Madeleine King

  8. frednksays:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 11:28 am
    Mexicanbeemer
    A lot of people put a lot of effort getting the state out of the bedroom. I find it unacceptable that there are people trying to get that unwound.
    ——————-
    Some here downplay reasons for why people are upset.

  9. Lordbain says:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 10:50 am
    Rikali, I dont bother to waste my time with Terfs, begone you
    ————
    I realise childish labelling and “no debate” are central to Genderism.

    But in the long run an unscientific child abusing ideology that teaches children they might be born in the “wrong” body can only survive with State repression.

    One assumes that’s one of the objectives of the threatened “hate” laws.

    I have voted ALP (and Green) in every election since 1972. Next year may be the first time I have to put in an infomal.

  10. Mundo you remind me of a customer I once refused service because he was being racist to my indian co-worker. He said “I call my Indian neighbours this all the time and they don’t care”. I cringed at the fact they probably hate him and are only tolerating his intolerance to be nice, and he had no clue.

    On a personal note I’ve also tolerated a lot of racist crap about aboriginal people from ‘friends’ I know. They probably don’t think it but I absolutely do resent them and think less of them. It’s just sometimes it’s hard to have many friends so you make concessions.

  11. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 11:25 am
    It’s funny how many labor people here sound just like liberal supporters did under Morrison.

    Yes it’s quite the scene, Mb.

  12. Another shocker of a week.
    Albo it should be apparent to labor is not up for it.
    But his job contender the Environment minister has been wounded with her gold mining decision in NSW mind you Albo put her in that portfolio to weaken her.

    On to next week terrible GDP growth will dominate and Fed labor at war with miners when cabinet goes to WA next week .

    Meanwhile in Qld a baby has coffee thrown over it and i hope for fed labor when the police find the offender they are not on any sort of visa.

    Abc have just given another seat to Clp

  13. frednk says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2024 at 10:00 pm
    It is interesting the Greens support the thugs in the CFMEU destroying the Union movement, and the shonks that were destroying the NDIS.

    I suspect the ACTU will win, administrators will be appointed, the NDIS will survive and the Greens will not get the poll bounce they are trying so hard to achieve, but we will see.

    The Greens have definitely proved they are not to be taken seriously.

    Well said Frednk.
    “We support thuggery and fraud.” ,
    “We are all for voodoo economics.”
    “Free Virtue signaling for all.”
    “With Dutton we stand.”
    The Greens’ real policy platform.

  14. Friendly reminder that, having shifted to the right as part of being a smaller target campaign… Labor has lost 1st pref votes.

    Hell, in 2019, ie the election where Labor was too left wing and got punished, they got 34.73 percent, so they in fact did better percentage wise then they did with the 2022 small target campaign.

    In fact, since the high water mark of 2007, Labor has gone from 43.38 percent to 32.38 in 2022, with polls showing that number has decreased further.

    Meanwhile, the Greens, who has been pretty certain in their left wing politics, have gone from 7.79 to 12.25 percent and rising in 1st pref votes.

    So every time I see someone in the media say “the Greens are too left wing and should shift to the centre” I think it can be safety ignored considering what that tactic did to Labor.

    So, what can Labor do to arrest this steady loss of votes?

  15. @pied piper:
    “Meanwhile in Qld a baby has coffee thrown over it and i hope for fed labor when the police find the offender they are not on any sort of visa.”

    There’s nowhere too low for you to go, is there?

    What fucking reason is there to think that the offender is on a visa?

    I’ve seen the footage and about all I could tell you for sure is it’s a man who isn’t black, and wears glasses.

    You got a special radar that tells you if someone is on a visa versus whether they are a dickhead homegrown Queenslander?

  16. Lordbain

    Citation needed.…
    ———
    The Ayatollahs of Iran have the same belief as you and they’re religious.

    The only way your belief can be justified is to believe that we are just residing in a body. That is, ‘we’ are separate from our body. On that basis we may be able to say my body is objectively “wrong”.

    A more logical (and ethical) position is that “my body is me” and my thinking about my body is wrong.

    Before you go for the scalpel on healthy organs you are morally required to explore mental health issues. Otherwise it’s definitely child abuse.

  17. Well well well.

    On the radio this morning in Perth a NDIS worker from Kenya was jailed for sexual assault of a 83 year old.
    Radio says he will be deported when his sentence is served.

    Radio is racist?

    Labor does not screen well enough.

  18. @Rex:
    “Lol I see that the census question all of a sudden isn’t divisive anymore.”

    Don’t think many people here ever agreed with Chalmers’ dumbass statement on that.

    @frednk:
    “A lot of people put a lot of effort getting the state out of the bedroom. I find it unacceptable that there are people trying to get that unwound.”

    Not trying to unwind anything. It’s a deidentified survey asking a question and you’re free to not answer. If there was some kind of coercion to answer, and even more if there was some coercion to answer and have your sexuality identified with your name in state records, I’d take your side of this.

    A lot of lobby groups FOR gay people made a fuss about the question being missing, taking the view that the question missing is a bit don’t-ask-don’t-tell, which I understand. Without the question it can feel to some people that government policy based on census data will then ignore the existence of gay people.

    You are free to not answer it, but I don’t think there’s a need to get annoyed at the government because other gay people do want the question there so they can answer it.

    “If this question goes ahead, a few years from now the people who lobbied for it will be saying “According to the census, x percent of teenagers are *whatever*, but the real number is probably ten time x”, putting us right back where we started.”

    Sure. There will be limitations on the data, but it will create a new data point that can be combined with other studies to get closer to the true state of things than before, it won’t be useless. And heck, we could be surprised at how honest the answers end up being. It’s happened before.

  19. @pied piper:
    “On the radio this morning in Perth a NDIS worker from Kenya was jailed for sexual assault of a 83 year old.
    Radio says he will be deported when his sentence is served.

    Radio is racist?

    Labor does not screen well enough.”

    How do you know when the worker came to Australia?

    Far more current non-citizen residents came to Australia under the Coalition than under Labor.

    Unless he had priors, whichever government let him in is unlikely to be able to predict that he’d commit crimes. The article I looked up made no reference of any priors.

    None of this stops you just inventing stories to fit your pre-conceived attack lines, does it?

  20. As a followup in Arkys well put response, the uptake in response will continue over multiple census’s as people will see there are others like them.

    Thats why there are “more” left handed people, more neuro-divergent people etc as a percentage of a population since the stigmatisation of such a thing was removed; not because it spreads or vaccines etc, but because people are more comfortable answering truthfully the more they see other people do it, and it spread awareness; I would put money down theres alot of people like me who just assumed they were a little weird their entire life, which saw an uptick in neuro-divergent information and took the plunge and got tested.

  21. The court heard that Irungu had come to Australia from Kenya in 2023 and had been studying at Edith Cowan University.Abc online today.

    Just not your week this week labor!

    Always next week !

    Also this.

    ‘ He told the court his client had experienced some financial stresses since arriving in Australia.’

    Was he screened properly?

  22. Arky,

    I’m not sure the census is as de-identified as you claim. The ABS head last time made comments about using it as a longitudinal study, which means they must be able to identify the respondents in some way.

  23. @piper: The Lindt Cafe terrorist was given asylum in Australia by the Howard government, and unlike some student with a clean previous record, there were actual reasons to detect him earlier.

    Have you come up with any reason yet to try and assume the Queensland baby attacker is someone on a visa?

  24. Wow. The faux “libertarian” outrage by some over the LGBT question and the use of the term “alphabet people” in this thread. Really dates some of you I think. The thing is the census already asks about age, gender, marital status, income, religion, transportation use. It then anonymises it and turns it into a spatial dataset that government and the private sector can use to plan infrastructure and all sorts

    For example you might be wanting to open up a new shop that’s popular amongst a certain demographic. Doesn’t matter what it is, income, age, religion, whatever. So you download the ABS demographic datasets and use it to highlight areas based on various demographic statistics. Maybe throw in there distances from your competitors or whatever. And in doing so you can optimise where you place your shop so it’s easier for more people to access

    Same thing happens for all sorts of stuff. All the time. Health services, public transport, shops, churches, new road and rail. The works. And it seems to me that sexual orientation could well be something that you might want to filter for

  25. @Zwak: The ABS says for the longitudinal study they link the datasets like this:

    “Data linkage is typically undertaken using a combination of deterministic and probabilistic methods:
    Deterministic linkage involves assigning record pairs across two datasets that match exactly or closely on common variables. This type of linkage is most applicable where the records from different sources consistently report sufficient information and can be an efficient process for conducting linkage.

    Probabilistic linkage is based on the level of overall agreement on a set of variables common to the two datasets. This approach allows links to be assigned in spite of missing or inconsistent information, providing there is enough agreement on other variables.”

    As such they don’t need names to do the longitudinal studies.

  26. First generation migrants since the first fleet have had higher crime rates so the right should look elsewhere for point scoring.

  27. NSW Parliament does it again (maybe they should outsource to the Catholic Church)
    The Liberal member for Pittwater, Rory Amon is charged with 10 child sex offences.

  28. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 11:25 am
    It’s funny how many labor people here sound just like liberal supporters did under Morrison.
    _____________________
    Take it easy on poor Tricot.

  29. One million people last two years Labor has allowed in have they been screening them well enough ?

    Given the incompetence of this fed labor rabble watch this space.

  30. pied pipersays:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 12:52 pm
    One million people last two years Labor has allowed in have they been screening them well enough ?

    Given the incompetence of this fed labor rabble watch this space.
    ——————-
    Immigration has the power to deport.

  31. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 12:43 pm
    First generation migrants since the first fleet have had higher crime rates so the right should look elsewhere for point scoring.
    ———
    Do you mean by first generation the generation that was born overseas not the first generation born here?

    As Lordbairn would say:

    …. Citation.

    I ask only out of curiosity.

  32. Hazza

    Not generally a fan of Madeline King either but good to see her sticking up for labor’s industrial relations reforms and sledging BHP
    The West Australian has been whipping up the fear all week.
    BHPs main issue is likely iron ore price and collapse of the nickel industry.
    Other miners bleeding over lithium price falls.
    The West will likely blame Labor for that too.

  33. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:00 pm

    Immigration has the power to deport.

    … subject to activist lawfare and Judges stopping it.

  34. Boerwar says:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:02 pm

    Did we manage to put the LGBTIQ+ census question to bed?
    ______________
    Are you all for it now?

  35. Rikalisays:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:00 pm
    Mexicanbeemer says:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 12:43 pm
    First generation migrants since the first fleet have had higher crime rates so the right should look elsewhere for point scoring.
    ———
    Do you mean by first generation the generation that was born overseas not the first generation born here?

    As Lordbairn would say:

    …. Citation.

    I ask only out of curiosity.
    ——————–
    Can be both but most new migrant group have a period of higher crime and disadvantage.

  36. I’m still trying to work out what gender/sexuality questions were to be asked, were then not to be asked, and now are to be asked again, and why.

    In the 2021 census form, we were invited to nominate “Male”, “Female” or “Non-binary Sex” as responses. I gather this was not considered sufficient by some. What will now be asked?

    I’m grateful for the advice from someone upthread here on PB that answering something other than Male or Female indicates an increased likelihood of suffering mental ill-health, so that’s useful. Are there any other reasons to need to know more, I wonder?

  37. I assume that Rory Amon will be kicked to the crossbench by the Liberals, that is if he doesn’t resign. Very embarrassing to have your youth spokesman charge with sex with a youth.

  38. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, August 30, 2024 at 1:02 pm
    Did we manage to put the LGBTIQ+ census question to bed?

    Yesterday it was terribly divisive.

    Today it’s all good.

  39. Can be both but most new migrant group have a period of higher crime and disadvantage.
    _____________
    I don’t know about that. I vaguely recall reading something along the lines of ‘most’ migrant groups have a lower crime rate than the national average. Perhaps someone will have the data.

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