Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll finds improved personal ratings for Anthony Albanese with no dividend on voting intention.

The latest monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review has the Coalition maintaining the 51-49 two-party lead it opened in the previous poll, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 41% (up one) and Greens 12% (down one). Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 45%, while Peter Dutton is up a point on each to 37% and 40%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister narrows from 45-39 to 45-41. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1061.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

892 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

Comments Page 17 of 18
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  1. Why did Higgins take a job with Cash, about as far away from her Gold Coast support network as it is possible to get?
    Was it because she thought she had more chance of being promoted into the Senate from Western Australia as a Liberal than from LNP controlled Queensland?

  2. when Higgins was working for Cash she would have been Canberra based.
    And as for her running for the Senate from WA …
    Where do you get this stuff from?

  3. The other day I did a few posts on the choice between the Maugean Skate (40-120 individuals and a full species) and a couple of hundred jobs and an industry worth a couple of hundred million a year.

    I noted that the binary was unusually clear and that the science and the economics were unusually clear.

    My question was what choice Bludgers would make. (A few Greens posters then immediately jumped in with some vicious attacks on me on the basis that THEY knew what my answer would be. They were all against profits, the jobs and the industry and all for 120 fish.)

    https://citynews.com.au/2024/remote-salmon-farmers-take-fight-to-nations-capital/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801

  4. Where do you get this stuff from?
    Higgins has previously stated that she was ambitious.
    Why take a job with a W.A. Minister, except that there are twice as many potential Liberal Senate slots in W.A. as there are in Qld?

  5. ‘FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 4:26 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 4:13 pm

    Can’t say I really care. If he is, marvellous….’
    —————-
    LOL. Your every text is nothing but an effort to get him over the line. Birds of a feather?

  6. Another bad week for labor.

    VIC education Minister -labor -says liberals federally when last in government had a better education policy than the current federal labor government.
    Ouch!

    Infighting and war with Greens a disaster.

  7. FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 3:31 pm
    Entropy says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 3:15 pm

    To bad you don’t have any facts though. I assume if you did i would not be getting this extremely weak rebuttal of the argument i posted.

    The Channel 10 interview is not subject to the the current court proceedings. If it was Channel 10 would have a lawyer there defending themselves.

    Channel 10 are not a named defendant. The clear evidence from this trial and the previous trials and enquiries was that there was a conspiracy to get Reynolds, Morrison and the Government. Channel 10 doesn’t have to defend itself in this case.

    There is zero evidence that anyone in Labor knew of the rape allegations before that interview. Let alone had any hand in the question that were asked of Higgins init.

    Gallagher publicly admitted to lying to Parliament that she didn’t know before it went to air.

    Labor did not ask any questions in parliament about the rape allegations until it was public knowledge. All the questions they asked were questions anyone could have asked, based on the publicly available reporting of the event at the time.

    The fact remains that Gallagher was told before. Then there is the evidence that Kitching knew well before and warned Reynolds of what the ALP were going to do.
    =======================================================

    There is zero evidence that Kitching knew of any sexual assault allegations before it was aired publicly. All she knew was that some form of security breach had occurred. A claim she stood by to up to her death.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/late-senator-refuted-linda-reynolds-higgins-claim-in-letter-before-her-death/news-story/15f2ef2639c5e11adf2b14332613cd8d

    Reynolds claim is that Labor knew at least 2 weeks before “The Project” interview. There is zero evidence of this too. The first Labor person to know was Gallagher and that was after the interview had been filmed and 4 days before it aired. We know this because dodgy Bruce leaked illegally obtained Higgins and Sharaz phone transcripts that show this. So while Labor knew something had occurred. It wasn’t till Sharaz told Gallagher on the 11th of February 2021, after “The Project” interview had taken place, but 4 days before it was aired on 15th of February 2021. Did any Labor politician know sexual assault allegations were involved.

    “Later that day Sharaz reportedly told Higgins: “Katy Gallagher messaged me. She’s angry and wants to help. She’s got the context. Says they knew something was wrong because they fired Bruce and not you. They avoided a scandal.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/09/pm-denies-katy-gallagher-misled-parliament-over-brittany-higgins-case-after-text-messages-released

  8. “Later that day Sharaz reportedly told Higgins: “Katy Gallagher messaged me. She’s angry and wants to help. She’s got the context. Says they knew something was wrong because they fired Bruce and not you. They avoided a scandal.”

    In other words, Higgins was getting her information from David Sharaz, a long time Labor Party operative, iirc.
    The situation was handled abysmally because Reynolds and Brown put their responsibility to Higgins above their responsibility to the Liberal Party, to which they owed everything.
    If Cash knew anything about the background from 2019, and kept it to herself, she should be on the way out too, imo.

  9. Badthinkersays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 4:51 pm
    Where do you get this stuff from?
    Higgins has previously stated that she was ambitious.
    Why take a job with a W.A. Minister, except that there are twice as many potential Liberal Senate slots in W.A. as there are in Qld?
    ================================================

    That confirms it is Liberal vs Liberal. If you are now claiming Higgins was eyeing Reynolds Senate position in WA. While i think this is BS myself. If it was true this would make this an internal Liberal fight over a WA senate position.

  10. Badthinkersays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 5:03 pm
    “Later that day Sharaz reportedly told Higgins: “Katy Gallagher messaged me. She’s angry and wants to help. She’s got the context. Says they knew something was wrong because they fired Bruce and not you. They avoided a scandal.”

    In other words, Higgins was getting her information from David Sharaz, a long time Labor Party operative, iirc.
    The situation was handled abysmally because Reynolds and Brown put their responsibility to Higgins above their responsibility to the Liberal Party, to which they owed everything.
    If Cash knew anything about the background from 2019, and kept it to herself, she should be on the way out too, imo.
    =====================================================

    Sharaz was one that suggested passing on the information to Gallagher. Though it was only done after “The Project ” interview was done. As he passed on a copy of that interview before it was aired. Sharaz worked in the Prime Ministers Office for Morrison. Hardly working for Labor.

    “Sharaz is a reporter with extensive experience, working for SBS, Sky News, and regional broadcaster Win prior to going into government. He worked with the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet before joining his latest employer in January.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/22/brittany-higgins-partner-abandons-canberra-job-due-to-fears-of-payback

    “If Cash knew anything about the background from 2019, and kept it to herself, she should be on the way out too, imo.”

    When Sharaz passed on the information to Gallagher. He knew the interview was going to be aired in 4 days time anyway. So it was very soon, hardly going to be a secret for anyone to keep.

  11. Sharaz, Higgins, Lehrmann, Reynolds, Morrison… Liberal, Liberal, Liberal, Liberal, Liberal…
    … meanwhile, the defence of the nation was in the hands of which minister, exactly?

  12. Entropy says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 5:04 pm

    That confirms it is Liberal vs Liberal. If you are now claiming Higgins was eyeing Reynolds Senate position in WA. While i think this is BS myself. If it was true this would make this an internal Liberal fight over a WA senate position.

    How many internet scams have you been sucked in by?

  13. FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 5:20 pm
    Entropy says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 5:04 pm

    That confirms it is Liberal vs Liberal. If you are now claiming Higgins was eyeing Reynolds Senate position in WA. While i think this is BS myself. If it was true this would make this an internal Liberal fight over a WA senate position.

    How many internet scams have you been sucked in by?
    ===============================================

    As i said i think it is BS myself. If you wish to actually address the person peddling this BS. It is BT not me.
    ======

  14. Bunch on Reynolds.

    ‘…
    “She just avoided me. Avoided being in photos with me, I was toxic. She hated me,” Ms Higgins told Maiden during the recorded interview.

    “She worked her entire life to finally (become the defence minister) and I was like, in her first two weeks … some little twit she doesn’t know who gets assaulted in her office and she hates it, she hated me.”
    …’

    https://citynews.com.au/2024/reynolds-brought-to-her-knees-by-higgins-saga-ruston/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801

  15. Badthinkersays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 5:03 pm

    If Cash knew anything about the background from 2019, and kept it to herself, she should be on the way out too, imo.
    ===================================================

    Does this also apply to Dutton too? If he knew about it before it went public?

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/peter-dutton-defends-himself-after-joining-growing-list-of-ministers-that-knew-about-alleged-rape-before-pm/r70nwwrf3

  16. Themunz says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 5:28 pm

    They can’t.

    Ignoring the technical and legal problems – the State is broke. It can’t afford to waste that much money.

  17. “Ladies, there is no reason to accept unacceptable physical contact. ”

    I see the conservatives have run the full gamut from denial to whataboutism to victim-blaming. In case anyone was wondering why the conservatives have a woman problem.

  18. Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 5:31 pm

    Bunch on Reynolds.

    ‘…
    “She just avoided me. Avoided being in photos with me, I was toxic. She hated me,” Ms Higgins told Maiden during the recorded interview.

    “She worked her entire life to finally (become the defence minister) and I was like, in her first two weeks … some little twit she doesn’t know who gets assaulted in her office and she hates it, she hated me.”
    …’

    All debunked by the evidence given including significant number of photos and her own text messages about her work in Perth on the campaign and attendance at multiple social functions including sitting right beside the Senator at a birthday dinner.

  19. davesays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 5:50 pm
    So now you are opposing Fuber’s post. Does that now make you the opposite side of the Fubar partisan coin too?
    _______________
    No. I was just making the point that you are as stupid as each other.
    ========================================================

    Somehow i suspect you are stupider than both of us combined. At least Fubar and i were having an argument with opposing views on the Reynolds case. Yes we have different opinions on that. As do many others on this site. At least we were putting actual argument forward, which the other was rebutting (or attempting to?). While you, suddenly came in and made some partisan slur aimed at both of us. Yet we still have no idea of what your position on the topic is. Did you not like what either of our positions on this issue was? Or did you just not like either of us and decided to have a go at both of us at once? Either way it is hardly a good look.

  20. The great state of Victoria is in very good shape, and Melbourne will soon regain its title of the most populous city in Australia.

    The current government has ruled for a long time, especially if you consider the brief Liberal interregnum of 2010-2014.

    We are told that most of the debt, which is low by any reasonable standard, is due to infrastructure spending on a fast growing population. I do question if it has all been done as efficiently as possible. The CFMEU revelations point to a culture of paying a bit too much than the taxpayer could have otherwise.

    Overall, the current government has been fairly free of scandal, has been seen as providing the necessary infrastructure that is needed, but has been a bit show in advancing progressive policies. It’s a solid B mark from me.

    It’s also been very popular. Sitting Liberals in Melbourne at both state and Federal level are almost as rare as Greens.

  21. The Liberal Party has begun accepting submissions to an internal review into the NSW division’s local elections mess — and the point person in the federal office is none other than Josh Manuatu.
    Political news tragics might remember Manuatu from another messy affair: the 2019 incident where fake travel figures from the City of Sydney council made their way into a media report. At the time, Manuatu was a staffer for then energy minister Angus Taylor and was identified in an article by The Australian as being “­involved in gathering the information that was then handed to The Daily Telegraph newspaper”.
    Manuatu kept his job and was later made director of the Canberra Liberals. The documents saga was probed by NSW Police and then referred to the Australian Federal Police, but the feds never proceeded to investigate, deeming the risk to Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore and others “low”. Neither Manuatu nor anyone else was ever interviewed by the AFP over the saga, the force told Senate Estimates in 2020. Crikey is not suggesting any wrongdoing by Manuatu.
    Crikey was leaked an email sent Wednesday morning by Manuatu — now the party’s assistant federal director — to members of the Liberal federal executive committee, inviting them to make submissions about the NSW division’s “preparedness for the next federal election”. The email notes the review, by Brian Loughnane, was commissioned by the federal leader — i.e. Peter Dutton — and the party’s federal president, John Olsen.
    As Crikey previously reported, Loughnane’s review is due by September 2. Liberal sources have said a likely outcome of the review could be a Canberra takeover of the campaign for federal seats in NSW.
    https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/08/21/liberals-federal-bigwigs-nsw-election-disaster/

  22. Somehow i suspect you are stupider than both of us combined. At least Fubar and i were having an argument with opposing views on the Reynolds case. Yes we have different opinions on that. As do many others on this site. At least we were putting actual argument forward, which the other was rebutting (or attempting to?). While you, suddenly came in and made some partisan slur aimed at both of us. Yet we still have no idea of what your position on the topic. Did you not like either of our positions on this issue? Or did you just not like either of us and decided to have a go at both of us at once? Either way it is hardly a good look.
    _______________
    I don’t talk about the Higgins/Reynolds issue. Never have. I find the need to score partisan points over every minor detail of this story to be boring beyond belief.

  23. ‘FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:01 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 5:31 pm

    Bunch on Reynolds.

    ‘…
    “She just avoided me. Avoided being in photos with me, I was toxic. She hated me,” Ms Higgins told Maiden during the recorded interview.

    “She worked her entire life to finally (become the defence minister) and I was like, in her first two weeks … some little twit she doesn’t know who gets assaulted in her office and she hates it, she hated me.”
    …’

    All debunked by the evidence given including significant number of photos and her own text messages about her work in Perth on the campaign and attendance at multiple social functions including sitting right beside the Senator at a birthday dinner.’
    —————–
    Well, that is the Plan. But will the judge bite?

    The real issue here is the almost total chaos, ill feeling, comms failures and emotional extremes in a the office of a senior Cabinet Minister. Stunning really. IMO, there is no way the national interest was being looked after properly.

  24. The Herald’s ViewAugust 21, 2024 — 4.45pm..

    Liberal infighting threatens to make nomination debacle even worse

    The NSW Liberal omnishambles just keeps on unravelling. Not only has gross incompetence left the party missing candidates for the upcoming local government elections, but now the first signs of open internecine factional brawling are further adding to the mayhem.

    Meanwhile The Herald keeps running one sided half baked stories against Clover Moores leadership of City of Sydney Council so they can have the Liberal omnishambles run council.

  25. dave says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:11 pm

    I’m not trying to score partisan points – just stating the facts of the case in the face of an avalanche of misinformation.

  26. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:09 pm

    Crikey is not suggesting any wrongdoing by Manuatu.

    …but there’s nothing better than throwing some mud again to make sure it sticks.

  27. davesays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:11 pm
    Somehow i suspect you are stupider than both of us combined. At least Fubar and i were having an argument with opposing views on the Reynolds case. Yes we have different opinions on that. As do many others on this site. At least we were putting actual argument forward, which the other was rebutting (or attempting to?). While you, suddenly came in and made some partisan slur aimed at both of us. Yet we still have no idea of what your position on the topic. Did you not like either of our positions on this issue? Or did you just not like either of us and decided to have a go at both of us at once? Either way it is hardly a good look.
    _______________
    I don’t talk about the Higgins/Reynolds issue. Never have. I find the need to score partisan points over every minor detail of this story to be boring beyond belief.
    ========================================================

    Then scroll through it. No need to abuse those discussing it. I’m sure there are issues you post that bore me too. If everyone abused people who discussed issues they had no interest in. This blog would be knee deep in abuse. Fortunately most abuse on here is due to people taking an opposing view on an issue they are interested in. At least then you actually know why you are getting sniped at.

  28. Remember, kids, the fact that so much energy and attention is being put into this stupid Reynolds defamation trial in the first place is to make clear what will happen to you if you have something unfortunate happen to you while in service to the Coalition and you happen to speak out about it.

  29. FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:35 pm
    Kirsdarke says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:33 pm

    … and lie about it trying to bring down a Minister, PM, and Government.
    —————————————-
    Who was lying and trying to bring down a Minister ,prime minister or government

    When you quote justice Lee, claiming he vindicated Reynolds , going on that interpretation he also vindicated those in Labor
    going on the evidence
    justice Lee said there was no conspiracy by any politician

  30. davesays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:09 pm
    Overall, the current government has been fairly free of scandal…
    _____________________
    Free from scandal. You have got to be joking. What planet are you on.
    Where do I start.
    How about I start with Will Fowles and Darren Cheeseman. Then we came move onto the Commonwealth Games. We can’t forget Somyurek as well, he deserves a mention.

  31. Taylormade @ #841 Wednesday, August 21st, 2024 – 6:59 pm

    davesays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:09 pm
    Overall, the current government has been fairly free of scandal…
    _____________________
    Free from scandal. You have got to be joking. What planet are you on.
    Where do I start.
    How about I start with Will Fowles and Darren Cheeseman. Then we came move onto the Commonwealth Games. We can’t forget Somyurek as well, he deserves a mention.

    Yeah, and they were all expelled from the party when their sins were made public. As for the Commonwealth games, who honestly cares?

  32. FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:18 pm
    dave says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:11 pm

    I’m not trying to score partisan points – just stating the facts of the case in the face of an avalanche of misinformation.

    ________

    This is my favourite post today 🙂

  33. Since you quote justice Lee, claiming he vindicated Reynolds , going on that interpretation he also vindicated those in Labor
    going on the evidence
    justice Lee said there was no conspiracy by any politician

    Did he say that, or did he say that Higgins was mistaken about a conspiracy against her by Reynolds and others?
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Does raise the question:
    Would Lehrman have bee successful in his Action if Higgins hadn’t given evidence?
    Lee said Lehrmann’s reputation was worthy $20,000 in his opinion, I wonder what Network 10 would have settled for?

  34. “What part of stating it is unacceptable is victim blaming?”

    Which is not what you said.

    In fact, just about the only thing you haven’t said is that sexist behaviour is unacceptable.

  35. Sad to say but the topic “de jour” on PB today has been dominated but sordid going’s on the periphery of Federal Parliament.
    Goodness only know where truth actually exists – with so many seeming ‘in the know’ – and so much contradictory stuff.
    Nothing like a good sexual scandal to gee a lot of people up.
    At the end of the day, apart from the hurt suffered but some, none of this stuff accounts for a hill of beans.

  36. Boerwar 6.12pm
    [The real issue here is the almost total chaos, ill feeling, comms failures and emotional extremes in a the office of a senior Cabinet Minister. Stunning really. IMO, there is no way the national interest was being looked after properly.]

    A very honest and accurate description.

  37. Griffsays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 7:10 pm
    FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:18 pm
    dave says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 6:11 pm

    I’m not trying to score partisan points – just stating the facts of the case in the face of an avalanche of misinformation.

    ________

    This is my favourite post today
    =============================================

    Mine was “Badthinkers”, which not only being very dodgy misinformation. It also is totally inconsistent with other previous very dodgy BT arguments. That Higgins was working to help Labor. As this post seems to suggest she was working to get on the LNP senate ticket in WA instead.

    Badthinkersays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 4:51 pm
    Where do you get this stuff from?
    Higgins has previously stated that she was ambitious.
    Why take a job with a W.A. Minister, except that there are twice as many potential Liberal Senate slots in W.A. as there are in Qld?

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