Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll finds improved personal ratings for Anthony Albanese with no dividend on voting intention.

The latest monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review has the Coalition maintaining the 51-49 two-party lead it opened in the previous poll, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 41% (up one) and Greens 12% (down one). Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 45%, while Peter Dutton is up a point on each to 37% and 40%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister narrows from 45-39 to 45-41. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1061.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

892 thoughts on “Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

Comments Page 14 of 18
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  1. Rex

    “ We know no details on the pact with Indonesia. That is enough to have me worried given the history of Govt defence policy.”

    ———————————————————————-
    I have already criticised the lack of transparency. But I can’t see much risk of Indonesia dragging us into a foreign war. Whereas a friendly relationship with Indonesia helps us a lot in many practical ways in terms of border security.

  2. autocrat says:
    “Unrelated question: why are the smallest chicken eggs now labelled “Large”? Is it because we are all stupid or that the marketing people just think we are?”

    Borrowing their marketing strategy from the condom manufacturers?

  3. FUBAR: “The Higgins case isn’t a party matter.”

    🙂

    Reynolds’s legal team claimed in court that Higgins and Sharaz intended to bring down the Liberal government.

    If it wasn’t a party matter before then, Reynolds made it one.

  4. VCT Et3e @ #654 Wednesday, August 21st, 2024 – 10:06 am

    https://t.co/dLqtlE8I53, on ‘… Albo’s’ timidity

    I read that article, the first third outlines how the Abbot government effectively crippled the Australian economy for decades by ditching fiber to the premise NBN. With upwards of a third of Australians working from home in some form this is costings billions in lost productivity.

    Then the rest of the article trumpets how this kind of obstruction by Dutton is ‘good policy’.

    Tip top stuff buddy.

  5. Fubar at 9:48, misogyny is not robust debate. It isn’t difficult to find the facts in that most anti female rhetoric comes from male conservatives, the majority of them in the LNP. The government has a far higher proportion of female members who are unlikely to engage in stupid put downs of half the population.

  6. Granny Anny says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 10:21 am
    Fubar at 9:48, misogyny is not robust debate.

    Exactly what is the misogyny that you are referring to?

    Making noise in Parliament when a politician that you are opposed to isn’t suddenly misogyny – it’s been happening for hundreds of years and the ALP are hardly pure as the driven snow.

  7. FUBAR @ #659 Wednesday, August 21st, 2024 – 10:30 am

    Granny Anny says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 10:21 am
    Fubar at 9:48, misogyny is not robust debate.

    Exactly what is the misogyny that you are referring to?

    Making noise in Parliament when a politician that you are opposed to isn’t suddenly misogyny – it’s been happening for hundreds of years and the ALP are hardly pure as the driven snow.

    Because you dont hear what isnt caught by the mics. A female federal MP I know said that when she is at the dispatch box she gets cat called by the entire LNP front bench.

  8. Kylea Tink got 2 extra goes at asking a question within Standing Orders last week before Speaker moved to the next question.
    In 2 years, her contribution has been being a shill for Labor and that’s it.

  9. Oliver Sutton says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 10:06 am
    FUBAR: “The Higgins case isn’t a party matter.”

    Reynolds’s legal team claimed in court that Higgins and Sharaz intended to bring down the Liberal government.

    If it wasn’t a party matter before then, Reynolds made it one.

    No it didn’t. The Liberal Party has no legal relationship with the events. Just because people on this site try to link it, there is no legal relationship.

    If you think there is then please explain it and also explain why the Liberal Party has not been a party to any of the legal actions, including the legal settlement that the ALP Government reached with Higgins.

  10. Mostly Interested says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 9:54 am

    Now do the previous three Parliaments.

    Opposition members being given the boot is hardly new.

  11. Mostly Interested says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 10:38 am

    You’ve provided zero evidence for a very serious allegation. Put up or shut up.

  12. ALP Opposition members shouting down parliament when the LNP is in Government – not a problem.

    LNP Opposition opposing a Teal – misogyny, of course.

    These sort of stupid claims actually devalue the opposition to real
    misogyny and thereby minimise the impact of those efforts.

  13. Mostly Interested says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 10:43 am

    Strange that an empowered ALP women doesn’t call it out on the floor of Parliament. Is the Speaker of the House deaf or complicit?

  14. Mostly Interested says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 10:40 am
    Because Milton Dick and Bronwyn Bishop have the same standards as speaker? /s

    No, Bishop had higher standards.

  15. FUBAR @ #672 Wednesday, August 21st, 2024 – 10:47 am

    Mostly Interested says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 10:43 am

    Strange that an empowered ALP women doesn’t call it out on the floor of Parliament. Is the Speaker of the House deaf or complicit?

    Because as you well know, the LNP see it as a win when a female MP speaks out about the LNP’s misogyny. Folks such as yourself get onto forums and start saying things like:

    “These sort of stupid claims actually devalue the opposition to real
    misogyny and thereby minimise the impact of those efforts.”

    “Put up or shut up.”

    “I’m calling bullshit on that.”

    “Making noise in Parliament when a politician that you are opposed to isn’t suddenly misogyny – it’s been happening for hundreds of years”

    “The Higgins case isn’t a party matter.”

    “The Teals don’t like robust Parliamentary debate. ”

    That’s just from page 1 of PB today

  16. Douglas and Milkosays:
    Tuesday, August 20, 2024 at 11:29 pm
    Entropy,
    Here is a link to the Tom Lehrer Werner von Braun ditty:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEJ9HrZq7Ro
    =================================================

    Thanks, some comments on it are good too. I found the morbid humour of this one below amusing.

    @dorkmax7073
    4 years ago
    Wehrner Von Braun’s autobiography was titled “I Aim for the Stars”. Satirist Mort Sahl suggested he subtitle it “Only Sometimes I Hit London”.

  17. Mostly Interested says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 10:53 am

    Because as you well know, the LNP see it as a win when a female MP speaks out about the LNP’s misogyny.

    WTF?

    That’s one of the strangest claims I’ve seen on here.

    Can’t the issue be debated?

  18. If the Teals think that they are being subjected to misogyny, then were not the unfounded and false attacks on Senator Reynolds by ALP Senators in relation to the lies about Higgins not being supported and a cover up also misogyny?

  19. Badthinkersays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 10:33 am
    Kylea Tink got 2 extra goes at asking a question within Standing Orders last week before Speaker moved to the next question.
    In 2 years, her contribution has been being a shill for Labor and that’s it.
    ——————————————————

    FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 10:36 am
    Mostly Interested says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 10:34 am

    I’m calling bullshit on that.
    ========================================================

    It appears you have called it for the wrong post. It was BT’s post that was the BS again.

  20. Badthinker says:
    “ALP taking fighting Sexism/Misogyny to the election?”

    Er, it’s the crossbench who are calling out the misogyny of the Lib-Nat frat boys club.

    Please try to keep up.

  21. Trump’s deplorable are now basement dwellers..he says

    Stephanie Grisham, Donald Trump’s former press secretary, excoriated the Republican presidential nominee at the Democratic national convention on Tuesday, saying: “He has no empathy, no morals and no fidelity to the truth.”

    Grisham, a Republican operative who also served as a spokesperson to Melania Trump, offered firsthand accounts of the former president’s behavior behind closed doors.

    “I wasn’t just a Trump supporter, I was a true believer, I was one of his closest advisers. The Trump family became my family,” she said, saying she spent her holidays at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence. “I saw him when the cameras were off … Trump mocks his supporters. He calls them basement dwellers. On a hospital visit one time when people were dying in the ICU, he was mad that the cameras were not watching him.”

    When asked to comment trump said..”but theyer LOVELY basements.. LOVELY you know wad I mean”

  22. Morrison got 2 things right – he demoted Reynolds and sacked Brown for not telling anyone else what had gone down with Higgins in March/April 2019.
    That beggars belief.
    Reynolds didn’t even tell her husband, a former CoS to Federal Ministers..

  23. Badthinker: “Reynolds didn’t even tell her husband, a former CoS to Federal Ministers.”

    The husband she despatched on transcontinental flights to observe and report back on HPM’s rape trial?

  24. Reynold’s case expired when lie was exposed in an AFP officer’s notes. The tweets the case is supposedly about haven’t been addressed while a conga line of Liberals, even SfM, have queued to float some talking points about Labor women bad, Kimberly Kitching and poor put upon Linda. The same stuff the usual suspects here have floated

    The AFP officer is going to give evidence in person. That’s bound to go well for the plaintiff

    Who’s footing the bill when costs are awarded against Reynolds for this ill-advised vanity exercise?

  25. The bottom line is that Higgins made a complaint in April 2019 but wouldn’t follow through, citing privacy concerns.
    2 years later, privacy was no longer a concern.
    What happened?

  26. UK Cartoons and other miscellany

    Morten Morland

    Patrick Blower

    Martin Rowson

    Christian Adams

    Peter Schrank

    Matt

    Kipper Williams

    Parisi

    Wayno

    Seddon

    Kevin Necessary

    ==========================================
    Stolen from the internet

    Pup Fiction

    After careful consideration I have decided not to take legal action against Tattslotto over my failure to buy a winning Powerball ticket before last week’s draw

  27. The husband she despatched on transcontinental flights to observe and report back on HPM’s rape trial?
    Yeah, that’s the guy.
    He gave evidence last week, the first he heard about it was from a television program in February 2021, iirc

  28. FUBAR says:

    “Mostly Interested says: Because Milton Dick and Bronwyn Bishop have the same standards as speaker?

    No, Bishop had higher standards.”

    Fubar, that’s absolute comedic gold.

  29. @Socrates

    I don’t buy the argument that this Indonesian agreement is “secret”, rather, that the reporting of progress and the publishing of actual documents can be disconnected.

    A few weeks ago the media wrote reams of text that the latest AUKUS deal was “secret”, that is until it popped up as public tabled document.

    If the Indonesian thing really bothers people, I reckon checking in on the link below regularly:

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Tabled_documents

  30. The bulk of Reynolds trial seemed to be made up of her husband, parents, brother and a friend. Parroting what Reynolds had told them. So we got Reynolds testimony repeated by a whole lot of hearsay testimony. By people whose only knowledge of the event was from what Reynolds told them. What was the point of that?. Particularly considering is what they mainly talked about was “The Project” interview which is not the subject of this court action anyway.

  31. The latest witnesses for Linda Reynolds (Marise Payne and Anne Ruston) have reaffirmed the emotional impact the saga had on Reynolds. Payne noted the significant emotional impact Higgins’s Twitter posts had on Reynolds, but could not recall the content of the tweets. There is still very little evidence about the content and timing of these crucial tweets.

    Brittany Higgins’s lawyers hope to score some points. They have been given leave to call a new witness. “Higgins’ lawyers have since gained permission to call AFP former assistant commissioner Leanne Close to test

    Fiona

    Brown’s evidence regarding how long she spent at a meeting between Close and Reynolds on April 4, 2019…. Close’s notes of that meeting contradict evidence Reynolds gave that she did not know an alleged sexual assault had occurred at the time.” https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/shaking-gripping-the-desk-marise-payne-recalls-reynolds-breakdown-amid-political-furore-20240820-p5k3sc.html

    Not much weight can be put on a journalist’s opinion about evidence not yet given, but it seems the case may liven up next week.

  32. The faux secrecy club is swung with energetic vigour by party hacks who hold their national policy decision-making process in total secrecy.

    These same hacks expel wrong-thought members following secret trials.

  33. Liberal v Liberal meet Days of Our Lives.

    I can hardly believe that the Reynolds omnishambles was supposed to pass for a government actually managing defence. Add half a dozen ministers in 9 years and it is little wonder that Coalition defence acquisitions were chaotic.

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