The latest monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review has the Coalition maintaining the 51-49 two-party lead it opened in the previous poll, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 41% (up one) and Greens 12% (down one). Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 45%, while Peter Dutton is up a point on each to 37% and 40%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister narrows from 45-39 to 45-41. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1061.
Why are voters continuing to lose confidence in Labor?
Well, there’s this, for one:
‘Despite days of MPs being cautioned by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese against taking all the reported [gambling advertising] proposals as gospel, communications department officials on Friday confirmed … that the changes were as described.
‘“That’s pretty bad form, whereas everyone else has been told it’s secret and you can’t talk about it,” said Dr Freelander.’
(That’s Mike Freelander, Labor backbencher and chairman of a parliamentary committee on health policy.)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-19/labor-mike-freelander-speaks-on-gambling-ad-reforms/104240372
Good morning all. Not quite as extensive as BK’s usual Dawn Patrol, but time is of the essence for me today.
Labor will turn on the Greens and paint them as puppets of disgraced former CFMEU boss John Setka through a social media offensive in marginal seats if the minor party keeps blocking new laws that would force the union into administration.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-to-turn-on-greens-in-meme-offensive-over-stalled-cfmeu-bill-20240818-p5k3bh.html
The crisis-plagued CFMEU threatened to target a storied Jewish community organisation on behalf of a large building firm — which allegedly has deep ties to controversial union boss Darren Greenfield — as the union also warned any protest would probably attract pro-Palestinian activists.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/cfmeu-bats-for-bosses-against-jewish-club-after-alleged-subcontractor-bribes-20240818-p5k392.html
Sydney’s metro rail line finally opens amid great fanfare.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-s-mega-rail-line-is-finally-here-what-you-need-to-know-about-metro-20240531-p5jibb.html
Former New South Wales premier Mike Baird says the Liberal Party’s failure to nominate close to 140 candidates for next month’s local government elections is a “tragedy.” A tragedy of their own making, that is.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-18/mike-baird-heartbroken-nsw-liberal-council-nominations-error/104239546
Now we have Fatima Payman’s husband speaking out!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-19/inside-story-of-senator-fatima-paymans-labor-split-move/104164296
Dutton is continuing to stoke the flames. Peter Dutton has compared Hamas to the Nazis in an opinion piece that calls the registered terrorist organisation “evil’s darkest shade” and suggests it may be worse than the Nazis in at least one respect.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/18/dutton-invokes-nazi-comparison-in-defending-stance-on-palestinian-visas
The door to an Australian tech tax is clearly ajar. Can Labor make it happen?
Ponders Paul Karp in relation to gambling ads on FTA TV.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/19/the-door-to-an-australian-tech-tax-is-clearly-ajar-can-labor-make-it-happen
And the Australia Institute weighs in, saying a 2% levy on gambling companies’ revenue would help compensate for the $240m in advertising income that media companies would lose if the Albanese government adopted a total ban.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/19/gambling-levy-proposed-to-help-wean-australian-media-companies-off-betting-ad-addiction
More than 7,300 websites have been taken down in the first year of operation of the Australian Securities and Investment Commission’s service targeting investment scams, the regulator has revealed. As an aside, Telstra has advised every time you receive a scam text message you need to forward it to 7226.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/article/2024/aug/19/asic-scam-websites-crypto
In an online meeting held in the weeks leading up to the May 2022 election, Albanese stopped short of guaranteeing senior leaders from the Australian National Imams Council, the Islamic Council of Victoria and a handful of other organisations that recognition of Palestine would happen in the first term of his government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/muslims-leaders-reveal-albanese-said-palestinian-recognition-a-first-term-priority-20240813-p5k21y.html
Long COVID cost Australia almost $10 billion in a single year as sufferers struggled to get back into regular work patterns, with a new study calling for more funding to help people deal with the condition.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/long-covid-delivering-a-multibillion-dollar-economic-hit-20240816-p5k2wd.html
Michelle Grattan says that Labor will be looking to the coalition for resolving the issues with CFMEU and NDIS.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-amid-their-ugly-fighting-over-gaza-visas-will-labor-and-coalition-land-deals-this-week-on-cfmeu-and-ndis-237010
Top economists tell us that doing nothing on housing is not an option. They advocate planning reform and more public housing stock to fix our housing crisis.
https://theconversation.com/doing-nothing-is-not-an-option-top-economists-back-planning-reform-and-public-housing-as-fixes-for-australias-housing-crisis-236309
The NT government is giving away precious water for free in what seems like a foolhardy quest to grow cotton in the outback.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-19/northern-territory-water-cotton-mataranka-springs-four-corners/104187666
Winter electricity bills being sent to households – that would not help the government in the cost of living argument.
So, it is mystifying to me that Dutton and co wasted most of last week on the Gaza thing, it is hardly a vote changer.
Oh, and C@t is much missed from Poll Bludger by me.
A_E made the good point last night that all of the recent polling suggests, at most, a swing away from Labor of around 2% on a 2PP basis, which would bring them down to a little over 50% 2PP: perhaps taking them into minority government territory, but that would be far from certain.
So, as I keep posting, Labor’s position is starting to look a little precarious, but is definitely salvagable. I strongly suspect that the swinging voters would like to give Albo another three years, but they are feeling a bit dissatisfied at how he is performing.
To me, he seems to be a bit down in the dumps at the moment: he lost his usual spark after the referendum result and hasn’t managed to get it back. He doesn’t seem to have much passion for his job any more: perhaps he was more comfortable in Opposition where he could get stuck into the Coalition without having to take any difficult decisions. Because his government does rather seem to be one for not taking difficult decisions in a timely fashion and rather allowing things to drift along for too long.
In that context, it was interesting to hear Jennifer Hewett say on Insiders yesterday that she had heard tell of a big announcement this week around capping international student numbers and that she expected there would be a lot of screams coming from the universities. That’s the sort of thing Albo needs to start doing: more of that please.
2025 federal election is
heading towards the apposite to the Victorian state election ,with the same result Labor government likely increasing their majority ,
Difference in Victoria swings were against Labor in very safe Labor seats ,why Labor primary vote declined, the lib/nats did not get the non lib/nats voters vote in the seats which they needed
The federal election is federal lib/nats are getting boosted in safe QLD LNP/other outside QLD lib/nats seats , and still not getting the non lib/nats voters vote in the seats federal lib/nats need to take off non Lib/nats political opponents
Thanks Confessions!
I just finished reading the Fatima Payman article. Two parts caught my eye:
“Albanese has raised the fact that Payman had never spoken out in caucus about the issue. Payman argues senior colleagues told her on arrival at parliament that caucus leaked, and it was not the place to raise issues if a member wanted the discussion kept confidential. Aly says she was never told this and feels safe raising issues in caucus.”
Sure. Sure. And
“Payman says she’s holding the seat because Labor rank and file and community members have begged her to stay.”
What an excuse. Are there half a million of them?
meher babasays:
Monday, August 19, 2024 at 7:03 am
In that context, it was interesting to hear Jennifer Hewett say on Insiders yesterday that she had heard tell of a big announcement this week around capping international student numbers and that she expected there would be a lot of screams coming from the universities. That’s the sort of thing Albo needs to start doing: more of that please.
_____________________
Albo hates screams.
So expect any proposals to be watered down or a deal to be done behind closed doors promising a lot, but delivering little.
Anything to stop the screaming.
Russia pulls 5,000 troops from Ukraine to defend Kursk Oblast against Ukrainian offensive. One of these brigades came from Donetsk, the center of Russia’s current offensive, while others were pulled from less critical areas. The source also noted that Russia may need to withdraw even more forces from Ukraine to defend Kursk, potentially requiring over 20,000 well-trained troops. https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-withdraws-5-000-troops-from-ukraine-to-defend-kursk-against-ukrainian-offensive-50443937.html
Although Dutton was heavily criticised by some of the political elite and sections of the media for his call to ban Gazan refugees, his stand appears to have resonated with voters. Dutton knew this would occur and he’ll feel vindicated by it. When Trump’s gone from politics, Labor should prosecute the case of the similarities between him and Dutton. It should also take some bold decisions instead of the small-target approach lest it could be Dutton, PM.
In an online meeting held in the weeks leading up to the May 2022 election, Albanese stopped short of guaranteeing……
_____________________
Each way Albo strikes again.
#weatheronPB
Bright light fills the sky.
Angles past my defences.
And not even warm.
Scott: “The federal election is federal lib/nats are getting boosted in safe QLD LNP/other outside QLD lib/nats seats , and still not getting the non lib/nats voters vote in the seats federal lib/nats need to take off non Lib/nats political opponents:”
——————————————————————————–
This is undoubtedly a conceivable scenario: the sort of outcome that we saw in 1998. Certainly, the last Newspoll quarterly breakdowns did not suggest that the LNP was making much progress in Vic and SA. However it did show a significant swing towards them in Queensland (which might get them a couple of seats) and NSW (which could conceivably bring them a swag, although the Teals are a complicating factor there).
The quarterly breakdowns also showed some improvement in WA, but polling there has been a bit all over the place in recent times, so I don’t think anyone can be confident of the situation there one way or the other.
Those quarterly results came out more than a month ago, and Labor’s position has clearly deteriorated since then by a percentage point or so nationally. But where is that further swing happening? I very much doubt that it’s confined to safe LNP seats in Queensland. I suspect, given the bad polling for Minns that came out overnight, that a fair bit of it would also be in NSW.
The really interesting scenario is if there is any sort of a swing in Victoria. That state has been such a bastion for Labor for so long. It doesn’t seem to be particularly ripe for the picking for the LNP because the current housing price boom has bypassed Melbourne to a certain extent. But I would judge the Allan government to be struggling a bit on teenage crime and the perennial issue of the health system. One would expect this dissatisfaction mostly to impact on state voting intentions, but perhaps not all of it.
One should not understimate the impact on voters at both the state and the Federal level of the current so-called “wave” of teenage crime. Of particular concern to voters is the pattern of gangs of teens conducting home invasions to obtain car keys, then driving the cars in an insane manner (while filming themselves for later posting on social media) until they crash into something or someone. There have been two such “someones” crashed into and killed in Victoria in recent weeks, with the culprits both being let out on bail, which is not a good look for the Allan government.
The commercial free to air TV networks are ramping this issue up enormously in an effort to retain some of their dwindling audiences (presumably so that, with Bill Shorten’s blessing, they can bombard them with gambling advertising). It’s also a big thing in talkback radio land. It’s not so obvious to those of us who mainly watch the ABC and read the Smage and the Guardian, but the continuing stream of nasty stories is potentially having an impact on voters. Sure, most of this crime is taking place in seats that are relatively safe for either the LNP or Labor, although I’d reckon that Lingiari is now at high risk of falling to the Coalition at the next election. But a certain proportion of voters from marginal electorates take – or are planning to take – holidays in the rural and regional areas that are most impacted by this sort of crime, so it makes them feel a bit unsettled too.
It’s a bit of a sleeper issue and of course it suits a ex-copper tough guy like Dutton down to the ground. Labor is a little short on tough guys at the moment: Daniel Andrews and Mark McGowan will be difficult to replace. But there are some signs that Tony Burke might be stepping up. He’s urgently needed.
Why don’t Labor and the Liberals just amalgamate and be done by.
https://campaigns.schwartzmedia.com.au/t/i-e-fqkhjl-timitpdy-r/
Ready to be scanned Bludgers?
Sam Altman wants to save us from the AI-dominated world he is building. The trouble is, governments aren’t buying his plan, which involves an attempt to scan the eyeballs of every person on Earth and pay them with his own cryptocurrency. Altman’s OpenAI is creating models that may end up outsmarting humans. His Worldcoin initiative says it is addressing a key risk that could follow: We won’t be able to tell people and robots apart.
But Worldcoin has come under assault by authorities over its mission. It has been raided in Hong Kong, blocked in Spain, fined in Argentina and criminally investigated in Kenya. A ruling looms on whether it can keep operating in the European Union.
More than a dozen jurisdictions have either suspended Worldcoin’s operations or looked into its data processing. Among their concerns: How does the Cayman Islands-registered Worldcoin Foundation handle user data, train its algorithms and avoid scanning children?
Altman, the billionaire figurehead of the artificial-intelligence revolution, has tried to push back and open doors for Worldcoin. The project is a lesser-known part of the OpenAI chief executive’s sprawling business empire, but it plays a vital role in his vision for society’s future, by attempting to ascribe all humans a unique signature. Worldcoin verifies “humanness” by scanning irises using a basketball-sized chrome device called the Orb. Worldcoin says irises, which are complex and relatively unchanging in adults, can better distinguish humans than fingerprints or faces. Users receive immutable codes held in an online “World ID” passport, to use on other platforms to prove they are human, plus payouts in Worldcoin’s WLD cryptocurrency.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-openai-humanness-iris-scanning-4d0e1dab?mod=hp_lead_pos1
meher baba:
Monday, August 19, 2024 at 8:00 am
[‘I might add that one should not underestimate the impact on voters at both the state and the Federal level of the current so-called “wave” of teenage crime.’]
What can the Feds do about this sort of crime?
NT election will be interesting this weekend Greens vote especially.
Doubtful any seats they will win but a large showing will spook labor and give the Greens confidence.
If CLP cannot win now given crime etc it will be a blow.
3rd week of nothing burger court case Reynolds and Higgins.
I just don’t trust the pollling data like from Resolve and Freshwater coming out 9Fax media but I trust the news reported a lot of time although they have their own agenda
In reverse I trust polling data coming out of Murdoch press but not its news reporting.
There are many people who can be deeply grateful for the actions of the righteous Greens.
Bandt and Setka are like that: protectors of the CFMEU bikies brigade.
Was it the $75,000 donation that stitched that up?
Bandt is blocking NDIS reform. Thousands of crooks all around Australia are just so grateful.
Bandt believes that only one side in the Middle East are genocidal thugs. Only one side can be grateful for that ardent belief.
Bandt is blocking build to rent – a wave of the future for housing construction and common in european countries with large social housing components. Domestic violence victims awaiting housing and people suffering high rental prices can be soooo grateful that Bandt has their interests at heart.
Finally, Dutton, who has a deep interest in trying to ensure that the Labor Government looks dysfunctional, is also deeply grateful to Dutton. Plus 2.2% and only going up and up!
So, I join the nation and express my gratitude to Adam Bandt.
Well done Adam!!!!!
Morning all. Thanks for the morning roundup Confessions. Labor is facing pressure on many fronts and seems to be holding on hoping for a fall in interest rates to save its popularity. I think that is a mistake. Governments being too radical and too timid are both mistakes. Policy action is needed on multiple fronts.
(Why did the ABC change its news website format? It seems harder to find things now.)
This story highlights a good news issue that was discussed at a recent engineering conference I attended. As the number of EVs grows it will increase the demand for power. This will require investment. But if EV charging is done sensibly, it might improve the economics of power generation and grids, by flattening the demand peak.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-19/the-ev-boom-is-putting-pressure-on-the-grid/104212982
The myth of Liberals as good economic managers has been exposed once more, this time in Tasmania.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-19/independent-report-into-tasmania-financial-position/104236274
The NT Self-Government should be disestablished.
Take fed transfers out of the picture and it would be a third world basket case.
There is an extremely limited private sector that is not completely dependent on government. A few cows, a bit of irrigation, some tourism, a bit of fish farming. and a bit of mining
The Greens hate irrigation with a passion. They hate fish farming with a passion. They hate housing construction with a passion. They hate mining with a passion.
Broken relations between the feds and the traditional owners in KNP is damaging the latter as a tourist destination. Street violence in the Alice is damaging centralia as a destination.
The Greens oppose virtually all new developments – irrigation, growth in defence spending, mining, housing construction in the NT. The Greens seek to destroy the defence component of the NT.
Their vision splendid seems to be Canberra as a giant udder with NT residents collectively sucking on a righteous taxpayers tit.
Mavis: “What can the Feds do about this sort of crime?”
——————————————————————————
Not much, but the “crime wave” helps to damage Labor’s overall brand, both because Labor is currently in charge of all mainland states and territories, as well as because they are seen to be a little softer than the LNP on issues such as border security and crime.
As I said, it’s a sleeper issue at the Federal level.
BW
A question? Are you on board with this mob? Last seen attacking Labor in a by election?
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/08/17/advances-plan-destroy-the-greens?utm_source=Clipboard&utm_medium=social&utm_term=read_shared_article&utm_campaign=social_share_icons&utm_content=sidebar_share
For Labor wanting trust in politics take note of what this right wing outfit has found out. The Greens are the most trusted “brand” in politics. Think about that when you attack them.
Don’t ever confuse the Greens with the right.
Confessions
Well done, This is the sort of work I would have done at one time.
Unfortunately by the time I get myself and OH going for the day it is just too late.
That’s why I can’t offer to help
BW: “The NT Self-Government should be disestablished.
Take fed transfers out of the picture and it would be a third world basket case.
There is an extremely limited private sector that is not completely dependent on government.”
——————————————————————————
What? As opposed to that hotbed of private entrepreneurship and unsubsidised commercial development that it is the contemporary ACT?
What are you proposing: to reamalgamate it with South Australia? I very much doubt that the people of SA would be particularly keen on that.
Albo spent the 2022 campaign trying to boost his street cred reminding everyone how he grew up in public housing. Now we are in a worsening housing crisis with nothing significant being done to prevent it from getting worse and he spent over a year wasting time and political capital with the Voice. I think people now see him as an ineffective leader and a sellout and there isn’t enough time to do much to turn that perception around.
wow, now because of dem nasty Greens the entire norther territory should be disestablished? Even by your standards BW that’s completely unhinged
get some help dude, seriously
I also posted this on the NSW thread above as it has both State and Federal implications.
meher baba:
Monday, August 19, 2024 at 8:51 am
Ta.
The thing about Dutton comparing Hamas to the Nazis (Hamas is bad) is that during the Second World War it was Zionist terrorists who were causing all sorts of mayhem.
Such that we might reasonably wonder whether a 1940s Dutton would have proposed banning all Jewish refugees from entering Australia.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Stern-Gang
Cartoons
David Rowe
David Broelman
Matt Golding
Megan Herbert
Pat Hudson
Moir
Mark David
Le Lievre
US
thanks for the Toons D&M!
I like the british and whimsical ones you post as well, a nice touch of lightness for the blog 🙂
Scott, bw has made it very clear in the past he would prefer a 1 party system, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he supports advance in trying to trash the greens…
Lordbain says:
Monday, August 19, 2024 at 10:06 am
Scott, bw has made it very clear in the past he would prefer a 1 party system, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he supports advance in trying to trash the greens…
________________
You still read his deranged posts?!?
PageBoi
Ask and ye shall receive…
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Mac
Patrick Blower
Morten Morland
Guy Venables
Ella Baron
Jonsey
Royaards
Beck Larson
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
From Royston
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The French Connection
Lefred-Thouron
TRUMP’S TEAM IN UPROAR!
“Fake videos show him saying ridiculous things! No, that really is him!”
Jim Pavlidis:
I find them amusing and telling, especially his latest copy paste about skates
Scott 1 @ #24 Monday, August 19th, 2024 – 8:52 am
That is precisely why BW attacks the Greens obsessively.
The figures are actually quite appalling for all the major parties …
And then there’s the Greens …
If the Teals were a party, they would probably do even better.
Man, when over a 3rd of respondents think your party either stands for nothing or self interest as your entering the election period, you might want to undertake some self reflection…
There’s a price for everything.
I’ve had the privelege of visiting Strahan and Macquarie harbour, and what a wild and wonderful place it is. It beggars belief that you could defend the salmon industry in that location, sure macquarie harbour itself is really big but the entrance to the sea is tiny, and to try and justify killing an entire ecosystem (including the endangered skate itself) for the sake of a paltry 120 jobs is, just, there aren’t any words
But it’s the bore, so anything for a listicle and to slag the greens
I’m not a huge fan of the intensively farmed salmon industry (stopped eating the stuff a few years ago), but at least in true sea pens the damage is fairly localised, definitely NOT the case in macquarie harbour
Tourism would employ far more people in Strahan than salmon farming, and with much less environmental impact, although that of course will Trigger the bore as well……
Prime Minister Steggall was impressive on ABC this morning.
When Labor is defeated by the coalition’s reserve under 18 squad led by Pete Dutton they really will need to think seriously about winding up the club.
That data set looks dodgy. Percentages for Labor, Liberal and National parties add to 95-100% indicating a single response proportion apart from The Greens which adds to 112%. Personally I would want the raw data before trusting it.
But it still will be used as who cares when it supports one’s belief system 🙂
Man
The open thread is taken over by Greens political party members like ‘Vlad’ wanted. 🙂
Vlad? That is the nome someone chooses after notoriety of 2 Vladimirs in SU history.
On the pathetic and timid Albo Government’s support, no matter the cost, for the gambling “industry”.
“And the Australia Institute weighs in, saying a 2% levy on gambling companies’ revenue would help compensate for the $240m in advertising income that media companies would lose if the Albanese government adopted a total ban.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/19/gambling-levy-proposed-to-help-wean-australian-media-companies-off-betting-ad-addiction
If the government opted for a total ban, they would lose a large slab of taxation revenue, the levy on Gambling companies would plummet like a stone as their revenue would be significantly diminished (the advertising works – that’s why they do it)…
It’s still no reason to kick the habit…
Dutton is continuing to stoke the flames. Peter Dutton has compared Hamas to the Nazis
So, who is taking offense here?
Hamas, or Nazis?