Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll finds improved personal ratings for Anthony Albanese with no dividend on voting intention.

The latest monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review has the Coalition maintaining the 51-49 two-party lead it opened in the previous poll, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 41% (up one) and Greens 12% (down one). Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 45%, while Peter Dutton is up a point on each to 37% and 40%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister narrows from 45-39 to 45-41. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1061.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

892 thoughts on “Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

Comments Page 16 of 18
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  1. FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:24 pm

    There was no action against the Federal Liberal Party.


    —-
    this says there was
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/details-of-brittany-higgins-2-4-million-settlement-with-commonwealth-revealed-20231207-p5epyx.html

    The deed noted Higgins sent legal correspondence in December 2021 to the Commonwealth, identifying a range of potential legal claims that might be available to her “against the Commonwealth, Mr Lehrmann,

    her former bosses

    Senator

    Linda

    Reynolds, Senator

    Michaelia

    Cash, the Commonwealth … and the Liberal Party of Australia”.

  2. FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 12:40 pm
    Reynolds case includes a claim for “tortious conspiracy”. It’s not just a defamation case related to the social media posts.
    =================================================

    Tortious conspiracy just means that Reynolds is claiming Higgins and her partner were working together in this. The context in which she has claimed they were doing that was in the 6 social media posts. The tortious conspiracy allegation still only relates to those posts. Which is why she was allowed to tack on this extra claim in June. Even though it had not been the subject of past settlement negotiations carried out between them.

    “News.com.au has again applied today for an official copy of the June 4 statement of claim by Senator Reynolds including updated claims of tortious conspiracy and the July 8 response from Ms Higgins.

    The development follows the WA Supreme Court declining to release a 61-page amended statement of claim lodged by lawyers acting for Senator Reynolds without a formal application that can be objected to by parties to the case.

    The explosive allegations are tied to social media posts made by the couple, which Senator Reynolds says “maliciously” targeted her by falsely alleging she had “harassed” Ms Higgins and mishandled the former staffer’s claim she was raped by Bruce Lehrmann.”

    https://www.news.com.au/national/brittany-higgins-lawyers-hit-out-over-selective-reporting/news-story/a23e29c75f8e7dfc464a7045503fdb87

    Note: Basically the tortious conspiracy charge means if just Sharaz’s posts are found defamatory. It can be still tied to Higgins. If they can prove a tortious conspiracy had occurred.

  3. Higgins was offered work in Canberra during the ’19, Campaign, work from Gold Coast or work from Perth.
    She chose Perth.
    After the Election she was offered a job in Cash’s Office

    Perth

    , a job in Stuart Robert’s Office

    Goldie, where she lived

    or a job in some other MP’s office, she chose Cash.
    It just looks like she made a series of poor choices, then blamed everyone but herself.
    Partly understandable, yet if she’d just rang the numbers Brown provided her, she probably would have received Counseling, a Claim would have been made, succeeded and she would still be anonymous.
    It’s like she called Heads 10 times straight and it was Tails each time?

  4. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:23 pm

    Because, as part of HER case, Reynolds has repeatedly made accusations that Dreyfus tried to silence her. The only ‘evidence’ of this appears to have been letters marked by legal privilege.

    We could finally go to Labor v Liberal if Dreyfus decides to do Reynolds over for her statements. IMO, she has not provided much to show that she has a skerrick of evidence to underpin a defo defence of ‘truth’.

    If threatening to withdraw legal funding that a Minister is normally entitled to if she tried to participate in the mediation wasn’t an attempt to silence her, what was it?

    As for the current Liberal v Liberal it rather seems to me to hinge around on a matter of judgement. In turn this hinges around the management ‘test’ put forward by Reynolds and her defence: whether or not a manager is a ‘counsellor’.

    Is that what you got out of it so far? Nothing of the fact that the conspiracy to use the media and the ALP to bring down a Minister and a government based on the the lies by Higgins and Sharaz?

    I look forward to the judge’s determination of what might reasonably be deemed to be ‘supported’ in the workplace. Despite the lying cow incident being legally settled, it is still directly relevant to the question of ‘supported’ in the workplace, for example.

    The “lying cow” comment turned out to be completely accurate with respect to Higgins claims of not being supported and there being a cover up and being forced to choose between her job or making a complaint – all fantasies. The comment was made well after she left the employment of the Department of Finance and is therefore completely irrelevant to whether or not she was supported – the evidence for which is that she was supported in every way possible by Brown, Reynolds, Cash, the Department of Finance and the LNP Parliamentary party.

  5. Scott says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:31 pm

    Do you understand what the word “might” means?

    She could have tried it on. I doubt there’d be a case.

  6. FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:40 pm

    Do you understand what the word “might” means?

    She could have tried it on. I doubt there’d be a case.
    ———————————-
    Why wouldn’t there be a case?

  7. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:38 pm

    Offering someone a job in another location is NOT the same as supporting a rape victim in the workplace.

    Oh, FFS, how is offering her multiple options on where and how to continue working isn’t providing support in the workplace?

  8. Scott says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:42 pm
    FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:40 pm

    Do you understand what the word “might” means?

    She could have tried it on. I doubt there’d be a case.
    ———————————-
    Why wouldn’t there be a case?

    There’s no employer – employee relationship. The Federal Liberal Party doesn’t have a duty of care for her when she is an employee of the Department of Finance.

    You tell me. What is the legal relationship that would entitle her to an action against the Liberal Party?

    Ministerial Staffers are not employed by the political party.

  9. PageBoisays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:33 pm
    Albosplaining gambling reform to Zoe Daniel, raised eyebrows indeed!
    =======================================================

    Are you referring to a question in parliament that Zoe Daniels asked of Albo? If so isn’t that how QT works. Someone asks a question and the person answering it gives an answer.

  10. Entropy says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:33 pm

    The conspiracy goes right back to the lies told in the Channel 10 interview and the feeding of the lies to the ALP to question Reynolds – causing so much harm to Reynolds, Brown, and the Government. The social media posts are a continuation of the conspiracy.

  11. Mostly Interested
    Because you dont hear what isnt caught by the mics. A female federal MP I know said that when she is at the dispatch box she gets cat called by the entire LNP front bench.
    —————-
    This government was elected to fix parliamentary standards but the government doesn’t call out bad behaviors out sounds bs.

  12. FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 1:54 pm

    dave says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 1:40 pm

    It’s a good thing that ALP males don’t do that sort of thing to females. Orkopoulos just went after males. Not sure what Bob Collins’ taste was.
    _________________________
    I don’t care. I am neither a Labor or Liberal partisan so whataboutism doesn’t have any effect on me champ.

  13. FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:49 pm
    Entropy says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:33 pm

    The conspiracy goes right back to the lies told in the Channel 10 interview and the feeding of the lies to the ALP to question Reynolds – causing so much harm to Reynolds, Brown, and the Government. The social media posts are a continuation of the conspiracy.
    ===================================================

    The Channel 10 interview is not subject to the the current court proceedings. If it was Channel 10 would have a lawyer there defending themselves. There is zero evidence that anyone in Labor knew of the rape allegations before that interview. Let alone had any hand in the question that were asked of Higgins init. Labor did not ask any questions in parliament about the rape allegations until it was public knowledge. All the questions they asked were questions anyone could have asked, based on the publicly available reporting of the event at the time.

  14. Entropy says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:58 pm

    You can continue with your legal fantasies. I’ll stick to the facts of the matter.

  15. DLO’s or whatever they get called in Canberra are employees of the department but other staff are employed by the minister and usually come from the minister’s party.

  16. Scott says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 3:05 pm

    Her membership of the party is irrelevant to her employment by the Department of Finance.

    Are you 9?

  17. FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 3:08 pm

    Her membership of the party is irrelevant to her employment by the Department of Finance.

    Are you 9?
    ——————————–
    Your argument is Brittany Higgins has no case against Liberal party, the point i am making that claim is hypothetical , as she was a member of the Liberal party and liberal party staffer , seperate to the commonwealth

  18. FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 3:07 pm
    Entropy says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:58 pm

    You can continue with your legal fantasies. I’ll stick to the facts of the matter.
    =====================================================

    To bad you don’t have any facts though. I assume if you did i would not be getting this extremely weak rebuttal of the argument i posted.

  19. Scott says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 3:15 pm

    She was not a “Liberal Party Staffer”. She was a Ministerial Staffer as per the employment arrangement I described above. The Liberal Party plays no role in that.

    #HeadDesk

  20. FUBAR

    you are not understanding or got confused in your own claim , that a liberal party staffer (federal lib/nats government is irrelevant as it is a seperate action ) can not take action against the Liberal party

  21. For your benefit FUBAR
    There is different claims against the commonwealth and Liberal party , your arguing there is no case on the later
    The deed noted Higgins sent legal correspondence in December 2021 to the Commonwealth, identifying a range of potential legal claims that might be available to her “against the Commonwealth, Mr Lehrmann,

    her former bosses

    Senator

    Linda

    Reynolds, Senator

    Michaelia

    Cash, the Commonwealth … and the Liberal Party of Australia”.

  22. Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 2:38 pm
    Badthinker
    Offering someone a job in another location is NOT the same as supporting a rape victim in the workplace.
    It can be.
    By the way, Higgins isn’t a victim, unless you’re denying her Agency and taking resposibility for her, presumably without her permission?
    edit:
    my opinion, Reynolds should have sacked Brown when she refused to take the complaint to ACT Police without asking Higgins position.
    Then Reynolds should have kept asking and sacking until she found a Staffer who would accept the direction, then told Higgins to seek counseling through the Commonwealth support systems, and given ler Leave of Abscence on Full Pay.

  23. Entropy says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 3:15 pm

    To bad you don’t have any facts though. I assume if you did i would not be getting this extremely weak rebuttal of the argument i posted.

    The Channel 10 interview is not subject to the the current court proceedings. If it was Channel 10 would have a lawyer there defending themselves.

    Channel 10 are not a named defendant. The clear evidence from this trial and the previous trials and enquiries was that there was a conspiracy to get Reynolds, Morrison and the Government. Channel 10 doesn’t have to defend itself in this case.

    There is zero evidence that anyone in Labor knew of the rape allegations before that interview. Let alone had any hand in the question that were asked of Higgins init.

    Gallagher publicly admitted to lying to Parliament that she didn’t know before it went to air.

    Labor did not ask any questions in parliament about the rape allegations until it was public knowledge. All the questions they asked were questions anyone could have asked, based on the publicly available reporting of the event at the time.

    The fact remains that Gallagher was told before. Then there is the evidence that Kitching knew well before and warned Reynolds of what the ALP were going to do.

  24. Arky says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 3:29 pm
    Scott – the key word you’re missing there is “POTENTIAL” legal claims.
    —————
    That is why im putting it to FUBAR , claim that Higgins(Former Liberal party member and staffer) had no case against the Liberal Party(not talking lib/nats government) is hypothetical
    no one knows whether she would had or not

  25. Higgins and Lehrmann were appointed under the Members of Parliament Staff Act. They worked in a Commonwealth workplace.

    As such they are chosen and managed (or mismanaged) directly by ministers. In this particular case, given that one was raped, there are unanswered questions about access to classified information, communications between the Chief of Staff and her Minister were not totally transparent, another staff member was effectively sacked under a cloud, a former employee lives in France and is incapable of giving evidence, a third employee suffered badly and is too ill to be capable of giving evidence, the manager broke down to the extent of requiring in situ support from counselors and the like, and there has been an almost unbroken series of litigation and trials, there is at least an open question of just how well that management actually went.

    The Commonwealth is liable for OH&S in its workplace and pays compensation accordingly. Thus it was not the Liberal MPs and ministers who made the pay outs under the previous Coalition governments. It was the taxpayers through the Commonwealth.

    In any incident like the current one, the basic choice facing the Commonwealth is whether to litigate or whether to negotiate. It nearly always negotiates. Why? Because negotiation nearly always costs less. And secondly because court cases are adversarial and nearly always inflict further damage.

    The negotiation in this particular case was between Higgins and the Commonwealth.

    The Commonwealth may form a view when assessing and negotiating compensation that it may wish to bring in third parties. It may form a view that a workplace is so toxic that bringing in third parties may make problems worse and may, in fact, increase the amount of compensation for which the Commonwealth is liable.

    To the best of my knowledge the AG does not have a direct role in DOF processes. For one thing, the departments are separate. There were no reports of Reynolds providing hard evidence that Dreyfus was directly involved… beyond her repeated assertions.

    My understanding is that in these kinds of matters the minister DOF does NOT interfere. It is arm’s length. Given the adversarial nature of the Parliamentary workplace, this is sound practice. So it is generally left to the Secretary DOF to do the bidness.

    Reynolds has repeatedly tried to drag Dreyfus and the Labor Party into all this. She has repeatedly tried to assert that she has an automatic right to be involved directly in the DOF compensation negotiations.

    https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2004A02928/2014-07-01/text

  26. It says much about Dutton’s so-called Liberal Party when a Labor prime minister quotes Menzies to remind them of their ditch carp behaviours.

  27. The Ghost Letter is worth the paper it is written on…
    Supposedly a key bit of evidence but which has mysteriously disappeared.
    No note to file.
    No record of it being posted.
    No record of it being received.
    No duplicate.
    Just trust me because I am not a lying cow like someone else…
    Typical of a Party that cannot even get nominations in on time.

  28. Albanese nailed it today.

    ‘And, I would think that people will be having a look at this bloke, who, ever since he walked into the parliament, as a new member, has always looked to divide.

    Has always looked to bring Australians apart, not to bring Australians together.

    Even when he has left his parliament, as he did during the

    national

    apology, it was all about divisions and then he apologised for it.

    He said that Lebanese migration was a mistake under the Fraser government. And then, he said he apologised for it, it’s just he apologised to

    ABC journalist

    Annabel Crabb, not to anyone in the Lebanese community.

    He has not apologised to Africans in Melbourne,

    when he

    said people can’t get out.

    He continually, he continually looks to pretend, to pretend he’s so strong – but nastiness is not strength.

    Nastiness is not strength.

    And punching down on vulnerable people is not strength. That is what it is. It shows Australia who he is every day.’
    ==================

  29. Anyway , question time wrap-up
    The federal lib/nats continue to turn their backs on domestic issues , and have no alternatives at all to get inflation , interest rates, electricity prices and cost of living in general down.

    Only alternatives the federal lib/nats have is increasing inflation , interest rates, electricity prices and cost of living in general will be harder

  30. Interesting testimony by Samantha Maiden in court today. She had only just broken the story and already the ALP Senators had questions lined up for Reynolds. This meant that they had checked the sources, ensured there was corroborating evidence, that they weren’t on a wild goose chase or likely of ending up with egg on their faces. But!!! They knew nothing before the story was broken. Apparently. Just amazingly quick work by either the Senators or their staffs to check out the story in an amazingly quick time.

  31. FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 4:01 pm
    Interesting testimony by Samantha Maiden in court today. She had only just broken the story and already the ALP Senators had questions lined up for Reynolds.
    —————————–
    If the Lib/nats propaganda media units knew , who in the federal lib/nats knew

  32. Boerwar @ #746 Wednesday, August 21st, 2024 – 2:17 pm

    ‘Shellbell says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 1:54 pm

    There should be standing authority established to inquire as to how individuals in this position continue to possess firearms and ammunition

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/21/mans-body-found-in-creek-after-multiple-shootings-in-western-sydney
    ======================================
    licensed?

    Victorian man. Different police force. No transfer of information. Like Q’land tragedy.

  33. Peter Dutton did not ask a question today. The opposition leader was largely silent. It has been some time since Dutton did not ask any questions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/aug/21/australia-politics-live-renewable-solar-suncable-teals-misogynistic-palestine-visas-question-time-peter-dutton-anthony-albanese

    Oh, the big tough talker gone a bit shy …?

    Lol honestly this bloke is as weak as p155 if you go back at him.

  34. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 4:13 pm

    Can’t say I really care. If he is, marvellous. If he isn’t, someone else will be.
    I don’t expect him to win next year, but Albotross is doing his darndest to make it happen.
    It is very rare for the first Leader of the Opposition to become the PM next time a Party takes the Treasury benches.

  35. Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2024 at 3:50 pm
    The Ghost Letter is worth the paper it is written on…
    Supposedly a key bit of evidence but which has mysteriously disappeared.
    No note to file.
    No record of it being posted.
    No record of it being received.
    No duplicate.
    Just trust me because I am not a lying cow like someone else…
    Typical of a Party that cannot even get nominations in on time.
    ====================================================

    Actually i suspect the ghost letter is this one quoted below and sent in March 2020. A year before “The Project” interview. It was not a single letter though but three letters. One was sent to Kitching and the other two to the LNP Speaker and LNP Senate leader. It didn’t mention anything about a rape or sexual assault though. It was about a security breach and an unofficial cleaning up of it. There was no information init to suggest anything about a sexual assault occurring. If it is this anonymous letter that Reynolds is claiming alerted Labor to a sexual assault having occurred. She is greatly mistaken. As it didn’t mention any such thing and was sent a year earlier than the events Reynolds is trying to claim occurred.

    Otherwise we really have lots of anonymous letters around. If this one sent to Kitching is a different one to one Reynolds claims was also sent to Kitching?

    “The secret investigation followed an anonymous tip off handed to the presiding officers, Speaker Tony Smith and President of the Senate Scott Ryan, that alleged improper conduct by parliamentary officials over the cleaning of the office.

    It included complaints about the decision to order a special clean of Linda Reynolds’ suite”

    “After an anonymous tip off was sent to the late Labor Senator Kimberley Kitching in March, 2020 – which included claims Department of Parliamentary Services ordered an office to be cleaned – possibly interfering with a crime scene”

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/what-penny-wong-knew-about-brittany-higgins-allegations/news-story/c4d3cdbfb119e20618c8c908ac9120b6

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