Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:
• The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.
• InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.
• Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.
• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.
Melbourne Mammoth
“ We should be anticipating, in a few years, far right regimes in charge around the Western World.
Back to a world of patriarchy, nativism, Judeo-Christian values and one devoid of wokism.”
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And we all know from a basic reading of history how that turned out for western countries prior to the Renaissance. The Thirty Years War and other Wars of religion proved that there were still plenty of conflicts between different christian nations.
We started getting a saner, better world when the west learnt the wisdom of separating church and State. Christian theocracies were no better than Iran or Saudi Arabia are now.
Confessionssays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:12 pm
Unfortunately for Democrats I think that is too late.
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The last opportunity was on Friday when Biden did his press conference. I thought he was going to pull the pin, but he clearly is intent on hanging on. Biden has to go voluntarily – to blast him out via constitutional mechanisms will be an unedifying disaster, and it’s now too close to the election.
Trump should go on to win the U.S. election, but the issue at play is the Senate. It’s the 2018 Senators up for election this cycle, and the Dems had a big year in 2018.
The Republicans pulled 20 Senators or so in both 2020 & 2022. If they pull another bag of 20, we are talking about a filibuster proof Senate.
Thinking further about Melbourne Mammoth’s comment, the closest I saw to that formula “Back to a world of patriarchy, nativism, Judeo-Christian values and one devoid of wokism.” was growing up in Queensland under Joh Bjelke Petersen, and more recently Australia under Scott Morrison. What enlighted regimes hose were.
Always beware of political zealots trying to impose their values on others. Talk about social engineering!
Trump wants to be a fucking dictator like Putin and Kim Jon Nutcase. Thank fuck we are so far away from them.
There being zero evidence to suggest that the shooter was anything other than a disturbed young loser who went down the political assassination rather than the school shooting route because the latter had stopped making the news, the answer to this question, if it can even be called that, is very clearly no. And if it were yes, you as someone who flouts the term “ecofascist” in reference to milquetoast centre-left environmentalists would have blood on your hands and all the way up to your elbows.
As Twitter user @DeathToBiden1488 (who I met when we were taking the Capitol on January 6th and whose Paul Pelosi memes are hilarious and on point) said, Democrats created this violent atmosphere by being sometimes hyperbolically critical about Trump. I can’t wait until they’re tried for treason for what they’ve done. Hopefully they’re hanged with a short rope, like the violent authoritarian thugs they are!
WT
That statement shows America is a lunatic nation.
We also have our share of fruitcakes..
A man facing jail for making death threats against Brittany Higgins, her partner and their dog has been successfully treated for his mental conditions, but his lawyers still want him to see a psychiatrist.
David William Wonnocott, 50, has been charged with using a carriage service to menace and threaten to kill.
The Tweed Heads man sent death threats to Higgins and her partner, David Sharaz, saying he did not believe Higgins’ claims that she was raped in Parliament House by Ex-Liberal party staffer Bruce Lehrmann.
Lehrmann has always maintained his innocence and the charge against him was dropped out of fear of Higgins’ health.
Wonnocott also allegedly expressed disapproval of the LGBTQ+ community, Judge John Pickering noted during a hearing on Monday.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/15/brittany-higgins-death-threats-david-william-wonnocott-mental-health-treatment-ntwnfb
Cat the best one I saw was something like ” the shooter was the second person to be disappointed by 2 inches in relation to Donald Trump”(referring to Stormy Daniels). I know it shouldnt, but that one cracked me up.
No whispers WB on Redbridge, Freshwater or YouGov?
FUBARsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:27 pm
Entropy says:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:08 pm
Lets call it what it really will be then, fascism.
Is not this type of irresponsible and highly inaccurate but inflammatory language that leads to assassination attempts against democratic leaders.
======================================================
I was really only commenting on the vibe i was getting from this section of “MM’s” post”:
“We should be anticipating, in a few years, far right regimes in charge around the Western World.
Back to a world of patriarchy, nativism, Judeo-Christian values and one devoid of wokism.”
It wasn’t meant to be comment on the earlier section of his post though.
Though to be fair i did think it was a bit of a troll really and was returning in kind.
This is the sort of discussion we need.
The “words are violence” crowd are a joke.
Not that I’ve heard, Nadia, although it occurs to me that Freshwater may be getting held back a day so as not to get buried under the Trump shooting story, as was presumably done with Resolve.
FUBAR, your frequently employed stratagem of exposing the hypocrisy in others by being a hypocrite yourself isn’t remotely as clever as you think it is.
FUBAR @ #962 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 8:21 pm
The other day you happily pushed the idea that Hunter Biden was actually partly running the White House and implying there was a drug problem in the Administration.
William, I do enjoy your forays into the fray. It brings tone to an otherwise dismal affair.
And, yes I am a flawed human and lapse into hypocrisy occasionally, but you can’t deny the Leftists are experts in the field.
I suspect he will FUBAR…
Sandman @ #964 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 8:48 pm
Along the same lines, Sandman…Melania was not happy.
From what I’m seeing that is a possibility.
Badthinker @ #930 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 7:48 pm
Um, but they haven’t committed any, alleged, crimes. So, what’s he going to charge them with? Being mean to him? Not directing the Justice Department to drop charges against Trump? 🙄
Not in the least worried by Resolve or Morgan.
Some here get excited, but then that’s all they have to cling to.
Morgan first out of the boxes, very glum, then Resolve
Hats in the air, streamers flying, whistles a blowing.
Meanwhile even on the evidence of both of those Labor is on track to win the next election with around the same number of seats, if not more.
Not going anywhere near the Trump bizzo, it’s been thrashed to death.
So, my point wrt pointing out the Queensland numbers for the Coalition, is not only the obvious point that it indicates there’s not much to be gained, seat-wise in a federal election, but that those numbers are skewing and thus distorting the general impression that we get from the poll. As it would pertain to a general election and the winning of seats.
FUBARsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:51 pm
This is the sort of discussion we need.
The “words are violence” crowd are a joke.
=============================================
If we are going to call out words that incite violence. Do you believe Reynolds has any responsibility, in stirring up the behaviour. That incited the actions, that sprocket posted about above?
DavidWH, BW and Fess,
Perhaps I can join you in a convoy to Betoota.
With Starlink internet, and solar power, we can be self-sufficient, read the Betoota Advocate (I will happily write the “astronomy tonight under Australia’s clearest skies” segment, for free*), and have drinks each night at the Betoota Hotel. I will bring the Rumikub.
* I can also write a pretty mean horoscope. I know when Jupiter is in Taurus, etc. It is actually pretty easy to observe, no telescope required. And as to what this means, I am sure I can find a recently-scanned crib-sheet from Kepler, who made his living as an astrologer, while finally figuring out how the solar system worked mathematically – no epicycles required!
My son follows some Americans on TikTok. He told me today, and I guess his feed is algorithmically biased, but that Trump wasn’t getting an outpouring of sympathy there. Lots of comments along the lines of, damn, the guy had one job and he screwed it up.
145 comments to the David Crowe article on the poll already! Most are along the lines of, why blame the guys that are actually doing their level best to fix the mess the former government left behind? Why the hell give Dutton and the rest of the rejects from the former government who are now in Opposition for a very good reason, your support? Most people just can’t understand it.
Sounds good D&M
They make a very good meal at the Betoota Hotel
Lordbainsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:58 pm
I suspect he will FUBAR…
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I suspect you wouldn’t agree with who FUBAR would lump as leftists on this blog though.
Some of the most strong Labor supporters here aren’t Lefties.
Entropy, I did assume my defn is very different then FUBARS, and im going with his anyway 😉
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 9:08 pm
They haven’t committed any crimes until a dogged investigator digs up some piece of obscure legislation and regulations that they have breached.
The quantity and scope of legislation and regulations in the US mean that anyone in business or politics has probably broken the law.
davidwh
Perfect! We can go out for dinner a few times a week. And inject money into the local community.
So if both Biden and Trump are guilty of something can we just lock both up and start from scratch? No?
Nadia-
1. I think there is no way the Greens are going to win Wills after wedging themselves along with Labor when The Muslim Vote popped up and indicated they are very likely to tell their supporters to back a Muslim supported Independent in key seats which will split the non Labor-Coalition PV and they may not even give the Greens their second preferences either given the Greens “anti-religion” platforms on gay marriage etc.
2. There is also a problem with winning Macnamara given the Jewish dominant booths in that electorate got Jewish MP Josh Burns [hope i got that name right] over the line in 2022- how do you think going all out pro Palestine and ignoring HAMAS will go down in Macnamara, and not just amongst Jewish voters ?
3 . As for Jed Kearney’s seat [Cooper], you say she hasnt done much and therefore can be beaten is a pretty flimsy basis for putting her seat in the Green column post 2025.
IF the Greens gain any seats from Labor in Victoria I will eat my membership card and never predict an election outcome again.
davidwhsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 9:24 pm
Some of the most strong Labor supporters here aren’t Lefties.
================================================
Under yours and most rational thinkers definition of lefties you are probably right. Under FUBAR’s definition of leftist you are probably wrong. Though in the vast expanses of the political spectrum to the left of FUBAR. You would think there is ample region for many named zones.
Sandman, how many times are you guys going to blame the greens for a labor on Labor incident.
Also I suggest ensuring theirs nothing too toxic on that card sooner rather then later 😉
davidwh @ #983 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 8:59 pm
On the death certificate of American democracy, one of the listed causes will be the pathological need to “both sides” every bloody thing no matter how egregious or one-sided the issue is.
Entropy so I’m a leftie? OMG what have I become!
Re the CFMEU, which I am a proud member of.
The Victorian branches shenanigans should not reflect on the organisation as a whole in Australia.
Some Victoria unions have a history of dabbling in the bad.
Who could ever forget the Painters & Dockers to start off with?
Enforcement of rights these days should not involve criminals and standover merchants.
It’s good to see responsible Labor governments taking action!
Global Wheat production by country
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-global-wheat-production-by-country/
davidwhsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 9:46 pm
Entropy so I’m a leftie? OMG what have I become!
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It is all relative. So relative to FUBAR, yes. Though i note “Alabama” called FUBAR a leftie awhile back.
Lordbainsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Sandman, how many times are you guys going to blame the greens for a labor on Labor incident.
–
I dont recall Labor encouraging the Greens to go all out pro Palestine and mute on Hamas Lordbain. But is it not ironic that going Pro Palestine for whatever reason and mute on HAMAS in the Parliament on the whole is going to come back and bite them on the butt in Macnamara, Cooper, Richmond etc and their primary reachable goal seat Wills is now the most unlikely thanks to The Muslim Vote amongst other things.
PS. My membership card is made of a nice blend of alfalfa sprouts, smashed avocado, goats cheese, ox blood and arsenic. I always come prepared for anything
We are all lefties now =D
Ven says:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 9:47 pm
If Western Australia was a country it would appear on that slide.
“Thinking further about Melbourne Mammoth’s comment, the closest I saw to that formula “Back to a world of patriarchy, nativism, Judeo-Christian values and one devoid of wokism.” was growing up in Queensland under Joh Bjelke Petersen, and more recently Australia under Scott Morrison. What enlighted regimes those were.”
Entropy was saying this is / will be fascism. No, in Australia will not go that far. Australia will still be livable, but it will be considerably more hostile for everyone who isn’t white, male, straight, cisgender, wealthy, and old. It will be considerably more hostile for immigrants, people not in the Judaeo-Christian community, people of colour, and anyone not in a monogamous, heterosexual marriage. The state governments will provide some level of balance, at least in Victoria and South Australia. There will be less blooming of the arts and cultural scene. It will be a blander, more inward-looking, more vanilla-flavoured country. A little bit more like white South Africa in the 1960s, but with far fewer black people to worry about. There will be less tofu and quinoa and more roast lamb and potatoes on the menu. There will be a little less green and community, a little more greed and mean-spiritedness. But for the mainstream community, life will go on. And for those who dare to be dissatisfied, a little more resignation and a little less hope.
Ven that shows what an important commodity wheat is.
Is there any other food product that comes anywhere near this, maybe rice?
Yes Sandman, the greens have been mute on hamas… except those times they condemned the behaviour. And the greens changed their platform position in palestine. .. waaaait, that was labor.
Still not seeing the wedge. Glad your card won’t cause too many troubles going down
FUBARsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 9:52 pm
Ven says:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 9:47 pm
If Western Australia was a country it would appear on that slide.
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Actually it wouldn’t as the countries Brazil, Iran, Egypt and Romania. All produced more than 8.5 million metric tonnes produced by WA. Yet none of them appear on that slide.
I’ll make this prediction. Everyone blaming Labor for Cost of Living Crisis and assessing that it is going to be the ruin of the Government will be rather mute come the late October CPI release.
Inflation easily below 3% and everyone predicting a rate cut.
The Government might look like economic geniuses.
How good is this, leaves the stupid nuclear idea in the shade.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/giant-batteries-are-getting-even-bigger-in-australia-as-coal-exit-nears-20240712-p5jtba.html