Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)

The race for the new WA seat of Bullwinkel takes shape, five Liberal candidates line up to succeed a retiring member in the SA seat of Grey, plus more Victorian redistribution aftermath.

Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:

• The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.

• InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.

• Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.

• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)”

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  1. Doesn’t this just say everything about the 21st century Liberal Party:

    Candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey:
    * Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day
    * Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022
    * Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer

    Potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland:
    * Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February;
    * Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports;
    * Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019

    Military, Police, Ultra Conservatives, Religious Conservatives, Animal Non Welfare Activists. Your contemporary Liberal Party, ladies and gentlemen.

  2. Out of the dross last night I saw a comment about online genealogy services. Like your privacy data, DNA is not something to share frivolously. It’s now becoming quite common to tap those data bases for all sorts of purposes that do not have your best interests at heart. Heck the Mormons run one of the larger databases, probably searching for the 144,000.

    I’m currently reading the diary of Anne Frank, I have to put it down every few pages as I know the outcome is so sad. But lists of people based on belief or ethnic background have been weaponized by humans too many times to give me confidence that putting my DNA into a global database is a good idea.

  3. Also, I note from last night the contemptuous condescension of the Authoritarian Religious Right Nationalists who are attempting to seed their extreme brand of American politics here, and are obviously advising Peter Dutton. A commenter who calls himself ‘Alabama’ (in all caps because you have to shout at everyone these days, apparently), used as his parting shot last night that it had been fun ‘playing with the lefties tonight’. Like we are some kind of mindless lesser individuals that are easily toyed with by the likes of them. That it’s only a matter of time before they roll over the top of us and propel Peter Dutton to victory and he creates the sort of Police and Military state that Donald Trump, the godhead of these types, has planned for America.

    So, all I will say in addition is that, we have Compulsory Preferential Voting in Australia, and you in the Coalition might think that all your vote harvesting feeder parties, like the UAP, PHON and Family First, will enable you to power your way to victory, but that didn’t work so well in 2022, did it? All your lies and obscurantism keeps getting exposed, all your astro turf groups are seen for what they really are, and, most importantly, despite what some might say, we are not simply a satellite of America. We are proud, independent thinking Australians. And the only thing you are ‘playing with’, Alabama, when you come here, is yourself.

  4. MI

    We thought along similar lines, that our DNA could be weaponised.

    However, if we end up with crackpot leadership with sinister intentions it stands to reason DNA testing would be forced on the population anyway.

    When I first started genealogical research many years ago, my mother said it was a sinister exercise & cited the Nazis.

  5. US Political roundup:
    Trump transformed the federal judiciary. He could push the courts further right in a second term: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/13/politics/donald-trump-judiciary-courts/index.html
    Biden grilled in “tense” call with moderate Democrats: https://www.axios.com/2024/07/13/biden-drop-out-meeting-new-democrats
    Jon Stewart accuses Biden of being ‘Trumpian’ by shutting down questions about his re-election bid: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jon-stewart-joe-biden-2024-b2578219.html
    Andrew Yang predicts Biden heading for ‘historic loss’: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4770011-andrew-yang-joe-biden-historic-loss-2024-post-debate/
    Why 538’s forecast hasn’t moved much post-debate: https://abcnews.go.com/538/538s-forecast-moved-post-debate/story?id=111783096
    Project 2025 Creators and Trump Loyalists Are Plotting How to Overthrow The Election if Trump Loses: https://www.thedailybeast.com/project-2025-creators-and-trump-loyalists-are-plotting-how-to-overthrow-the-election-if-trump-loses
    Trump’s lawyers are taking full advantage of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling: https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-lawyers-judge-merchan-supreme-court-immunity-ruling-rcna161477
    Donald Trump Trashes Republicans After Amendment Loses by ‘Only One Vote’: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-amendment-loses-defund-prosecutions-1924722
    Before He Was a VP Contender, J.D. Vance Suggested Trump’s Sexual Assault Accuser Was Telling the Truth: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/jd-vance-suggested-trumps-sexual-assault-accuser-was-telling-the-truth
    The unusual legal risk Trump will have to navigate at the RNC: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/13/trump-rnc-legal-risks-00167950
    House GOP’s tanked vote signals tough path ahead on funding: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4769449-gop-funding-vote-tough-path/
    Republican Rep. Goes on Unhinged Rant About Women “Emasculating Men”: https://newrepublic.com/post/183778/republican-rep-goes-unhinged-rant-women-emasculating-men

  6. ., Ultra Conservatives, Religious Conservatives, …
    Is Conservatism consistent with Capitalism?
    No, conservatives are tending toward the Reactionary end of the spectrum, which makes them a Labor Party demographic.
    Anyone who’s had to endure a sermon in an Anglican Church in the last 50 years could tell you that.

  7. Why wouldn’t the libs be queuing up from one side of the country to the other to take on a rabble of a federal government! Cannot believe their luck.
    Albos electorate office is blockaded he does nothing because Fatima has him by the Goulies with her or others upcoming Muslim party.

    Split,incompetent,drifting it’s a long way from 57-43 a year in.The last year has been a disaster for federal labor.
    From NDIS Shorten -Swiss air- ,dumb and dumber immigration ministers,an unpopular and weak Prime Minister ,an incompetent Aboriginal affairs minister and a Finance Minister that’s a ASIC fan.To inflation not under control with interest rate increase a possibility that would be 14 under hard labor.

    More incompetence of the Guilty party to come.

    What’s the next fiasco this week going to be labor ?

  8. Dee, it isn’t nazi I’m worried about, it’s insurance companies. Withheld insurance, prejudiced by your DNA, is already common. These databases make it easier.

  10. Pied Piper 8.11am,
    [What’s the next fiasco this week going to be labor ?]

    What’s taking so long?
    Haven’t you made it up yet?

  11. Trump’s lawyers, via the Heritage Foundation, are also already planning to take the Democratic Party to court if they choose to hand over the nomination to Kamala Harris AFTER the Democratic convention chooses its nominee and it’s Joe Biden. So, if Joe Biden has another health episode after he is nominated the Rethuglicans are ready to go with a legal challenge to tie a handover up in the courts.

  12. I am sure there are people in the alp watching the Biden situation unfold and calculating will Albo go quietly when they tap him on the shoulder ?

  14. I do often wonder if the fools here get a little bored. Having to type day after day “Labor bad hur hur hur”. The material they have to use day in day out is so thin. I expect the L key is worn out on their keyboards, and they are managing RSI with wrist braces and anti inflammation jells.

    Deep in the night do they lay awake in their beds and wonder, “are we the baddies?” When they review the decade of wreckage that was the ATM government and know deep inside their hearts that they are actually worse off than before because of their slavish bending the of knee to the Coalition.

    Sometimes I wonder if they just need a hug and someone to say, “I see you”. As they drift through life without the insight to see the external pain they try to transmit comes from inside as they head for an early grave alone and without love in their life.

    Sometimes I do wonder.

  22. Where it occurred:

    Butler is a city and the county seat of Butler County, Pennsylvania, United States. It is located 35 miles north of Pittsburgh and is part of the Greater Pittsburgh region. As of the 2020 census, the city population was 13,502

  25. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup Holden Hillbilly.

    There are lots of posts with video of Trump seemingly being shot at in his Pennsylvania rally.

    I will withhold judgement till we get more detail of what happened.

  27. The government must be breathing a sigh of relief at the Trump shooting incident. The latest Israeli atrocity in Gaza, the deliberate targeting of a declared safe zone, resulting in at least 90 civilian casualties was getting a lot of rotation, now Penny can put her wet lettuce back in the bag

  30. Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy says it is time to ‘to step back from the division, renounce all violence, and unite in prayer for President Trump and his family.’

  31. Goood Morning.

    France is going to be interesting. Fault lines remain..However on a policy there is unity for undoing Macron’s pension reform. Even the far right will vote for that. The sticking point for avoiding the impasse is in fact a wealth tax.

    If no wealth tax to undo pension change say hello to the far right Presidential Candidate Le Pen.

  34. Hoping PK asks Tony Burke about the government’s response (or rather lack of one) to the Hill report into our broken job active programs and ‘mutual’ obligations – he’ll have to defend the indefensible

  35. ‘PageBoi says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 8:50 am

    The government must be breathing a sigh of relief at the Trump shooting incident. The latest Israeli atrocity in Gaza, the deliberate targeting of a declared safe zone, resulting in at least 90 civilian casualties was getting a lot of rotation, now Penny can put her wet lettuce back in the bag’
    ———————————-
    This is the sort of Greens cheap shot that is helping Dutton gain 1.4% in the polls and Hanson 2.2% in the polls.

  36. Wow

    I turn off the news for a minute. Not even this will teach the US right guns need regulating.

    Might make Trump reconsider though. We can hope some good comes of the madness

  44. Such a Hollywood turn of events.

    Trump accuses Biden of ordering a hit & hey presto….

    Shots fired in the air, Trump gets bloodied after hitting the ground…mmmm

    I know, I know, I should just swallow..

  47. Pennsylvania generally allows open carry of firearms without a license. In Philadelphia, you must have a license to openly carry a firearm. In order to lawfully carry a concealed weapon in Pennsylvania, you must be 21 or older and possess a current and valid Pennsylvania License to Carry Firearms.

    https://www.pittsburghcriminalattorney.com/firearms-weapons-charges/concealment-of-weapon/#:~:text=Pennsylvania%20generally%20allows%20open%20carry,Pennsylvania%20License%20to%20Carry%20Firearms.

  48. Never been an assassination attempt on a Left Wing/Progressive President.
    Check it out:
    T.Roosevelt; No; Wilson; No; FD Roosevelt; No; LBJ;No; Carter; No; Clinton; No; Obama; No; Biden; No.

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