Live Commentary
11:24am There’s still one seat left to declare, a large rural Scottish seat that’s expected to go to the Lib Dems. That final seat is expected to declare at 7:30pm AEST today. I will post final results from the UK and Scotland after that declaration. Tomorrow I will have a post on the French parliamentary election runoffs.
8:01am Saturday Northern Ireland’s 18 seats split seven Sinn Fein (steady since 2019), five Democratic Unionists (down three), two Social Democratic and Labour (steady), one Alliance (steady), one Ulster Unionist (up one), one Traditional Unionist (up one) and one independent (up one). Vote shares were 27% SF (up 4), 22% DUP (down 9), 11% SDLP (down 4), 15% Alliance (down 2), 12% UUP (up 0.5) and 6% TUV (new).
6:39pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation on the UK results. The key takeaway is that, while Labour won a seat landslide, their vote share of 33.8% was only ten points ahead of the Tories, when final polls had them 18 points up, and it trailed the combined Tory and Reform vote share (38.0%). This vote share is the lowest for any party that has won a majority in the UK.
4:31pm The Tories have lost four seats previously held by their PMs tonight, two to Labour and two to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems won Theresa May’s old seat of Maidenhead and David Cameron’s Witney, while Labour won Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge as well as defeating Truss.
4:14pm Liz Truss is out of parliament after being defeated by 27-25 by Labour in her South-West Norfolk seat, with 23% Reform and 14% for an independent. Labour’s vote was up 8 with Truss down 43.
3:52pm The Greens gain North Herefordshire from the Tories by 43-32, on a 34-point swing to the Greens and a 31-point slump for the Tories. The Greens easily held their one existing seat of Brighton Pavilion.
3:02pm The Greens gain Waveney Valley from the Tories by 42-30, a 32% swing to the Greens and a 32% drop for the Tories. Reform won 16% (new) and Labour 9% (down 9 owing to tactical voting).
2:27pm Labour GAINS North-East Somerset from Tory Jacob Rees-Mogg, a fervent supporter of Boris Johnson. 41% Labour (up 14), 30% Tories (down 25) and 15% Reform (new).
2:11pm After 479 of 650, Labour has WON an overall majority, with 333 seats (up 155). The Tories have 72 (down 171), the Lib Dems 46 (up 39), Reform four (up four), the SNP four (down 34), independents four (up four) and Plaid four (up two). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.4, Tories down 19.5, Lib Dems up 0.3, Reform up 12 and Greens up 4.
1:32pm After 30 of 57 Scottish seats, 23 Labour (up 22), four SNP (down 23), two Lib Dems (up one) and one Tory (steady). Vote share changes are Labour up 18.5 and SNP down 15.5.
1:27pm After 332 of 650 seats (more than halfway through now), 245 Labour (up 111), 42 Tories (down 122), 27 Lib Dems (up 23), four Reform (up four), four SNP (down 21) and three Plaid (up two). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.2, Tories down 19.5, Lib Dems none, Reform up 12.5 and Greens up 4.2.
1:20pm The Greens crushed Labour in Bristol Central by 57-33, a 31-point gain for the Greens and a 26-point slump for Labour.
1:15pm Something went wrong for Labour in Leicester. They lost Leicester East to the Tories and now Leicester South to an independent, who defeated Labour by 35-33, a 35% drop for Labour.
1:09pm After 266 of 650 seats, 196 Labour (up 85), 32 Tories (down 99), 23 Lib Dems (up 20), four SNP (down 14), three Reform (up three), two Plaid (up two) and one Green (up one). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.0, Tories down 20, Lib Dems no change, Reform up 13 and Greens up four.
1:02pm Reform leader Nigel Farage easily wins Clacton, defeating the Tories by 46-28 with 16% for Labour. Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn easily wins Islington North as an independent, defeating Labour by 49-34. A pre-election seat poll had Corbyn trailing by 43-29.
12:31pm After 141 of 650 seats, 110 Labour (up 41), 14 Tories (down 49), 14 Lib Dems (up 11), one Reform (up one), one SNP (down five) and one Plaid (up one). Vote share changes are Labour up 0.7, Tories down 19, Lib Dems down 0.1, Reform up 12.5 and Greens up 4.
12:24pm The Tories have GAINED Leicester East from Labour, very much against the trend. 31% Tories (down 7), 22% Labour (down 29!), 13.5% Lib Dem (up 8), 12% independent (new) and 8% One Leicester (new). I believe Labour’s crash here is probably due to the Muslim vote.
12:11pm Labour has won all three seats declared so far in Scotland, gaining all three from the SNP. Labour’s Scottish vote is up 23 points, while the SNP is down 17.
12:05pm After 84 of 650 seats, Labour 73 (up 29), Tories six (down 31), Lib Dems four (up three) and Reform one (up one). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.2, Tories down 20, Lib Dems down 0.4, Reform up 13 and Greens up four.
11:54am The first Scottish seat (Kilmarnock & Loudoun) is a Labour gain from the SNP. 45% Labour (up 26), 33% SNP (down 18), 8% Tories (down 16) and 8% Reform (new).
11:46am Labour lost Hartlepool to the Tories at a by-election in May 2021 when Boris Johnson was popular, but have won it easily at this election. Earlier this year, Labour lost Rochdale at a by-election to George Galloway after their candidate was disendorsed. In the rematch, Labour defeated Galloway by 33-29 with 17% for Reform and 11% Tories.
11:27am Reform WINS their first seat in Ashfield, gaining from the Tories. 43% Reform (up 38), 29% Labour (up three), 16% independent (down 11) and an embarrassing 4th place for the Tories in a seat they held with just 8% (down 31!).
11:14am After 22 of 650 seats, Labour 19 (up seven), Lib Dems two (up two) and Tories just one (down nine). Vote share changes based on these seats’ votes in 2019 are Labour up two, Lib Dems up 0.4, Tories down 22, Reform up 14 and Greens up four.
11:09am Labour GAINS Bridgend in Wales from the Tories. 40% Labour (up one), 19% Reform (up 14), 16% Tories (down 28!), 9% Plaid (up four) and 8% for an independent.
11:05am Labour GAINS Nuneaton from the Tories. 37% Labour (up five), 28.5% Tories (down 32!) and 22% Reform (new).
10:41am Lib Dems GAIN Harrogate & Knaresborough from Tories. 46% Lib Dem (up 10), 30% Tories (down 22), 11% Reform (new) and 8% Labour (down two).
9:39am Labour GAINS Swindon South from the Tories. Labour 48% (up 8), Tories 27% (down 25) and Reform 14% (new).
8:42am It’s a similar story in Blyth & Ashington, Labour up a little, Reform surges and the Tories plunge.
8:37am Labour HOLDS Houghton & Sunderland South, the first seat to be declared. Labour 47% (up 7), Reform 29% (up 13) and Tories 14% (down 19). Turnout was 51% (down six).
7:09am Friday The Exit Poll has Labour on 410 of the 650 seats, the Tories on 131, the Lib Dems 61, Reform 13, the SNP 10, Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) four and the Greens two. That’s better for the Tories and Reform than expected from pre-election polls, a little worse for Labour and a lot worse for the SNP.
8:45pm I prefer traditional polls, but William has asked me to comment on what the Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) polls are saying. These have massive sample sizes, with the YouGov MRP the largest sample at almost 48,000. The YouGov MRP agrees well with the ElectionMapsUK forecast below, with 431 Labour seats, 102 Conservatives, 72 Lib Dems and 18 SNP. The Survation MRP is the most bearish for the Conservatives, with just 64 Conservatives, to 484 for Labour and 61 Lib Dems. Fieldwork periods for the MRP polls were at least a week, so they wouldn’t pick up late movement.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The UK general election is today, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. The Guardian’s election night guide says The Exit Poll will be released once polls close. The exit poll only gives party seat numbers, not vote shares. In past elections, for example 2015 and 2017, the exit poll has predicted seat numbers at odds with pre-election polls. In these cases, the exit poll has been more accurate.
In the UK, votes are not counted at polling places but transported to a counting location within each seat before they are counted. All times listed here are AEST. The Guardian expects only eight of the 650 House of Commons seats to be declared by 10am Friday. By 12pm, about 85 seats will be in. The big rush of results will come between 12pm and 2pm, with 443 declarations, and the remaining seats should be declared by 4pm with “perhaps a few exceptions”.
The final UK national poll aggregate from ElectionMapsUK has Labour at 39.3%, the Conservatives at 21.4%, the far-right Reform at 16.4%, the Liberal Democrats at 11.0% and the Greens at 6.4%. Polls in the final few days have suggested a small recovery for the Conservatives, with Labour’s lead dropping below 20 points. Individual poll results have been between Labour leads of 13 and 20 points over the Conservatives.
With first past the post, these vote shares result in a Labour landslide. The ElectionMapsUK seat forecast is for Labour to win 436 of the 650 seats, the Conservatives 101, the Lib Dems 66, the Scottish National Party 17, the Greens four and Reform three. While the Conservatives have improved to just above 100 seats, that’s far below the 165 they won at their previous nadir in 1997.
While Labour has led the SNP by single-digit margins in most Scottish polls since March, the final Savanta poll gave the SNP a 34-31 lead over Labour. If true, the SNP could limit its losses after getting 48 of 59 Scottish seats in 2019 to just one for Labour. Seat polls for the Greens have them gaining three seats. In other UK election news, the right-wing tabloid The Sun has endorsed Labour.
French election: candidate withdrawals may block far-right RN from majority
The 577 French lower house seats are elected by a two-round single-member system. In final results of Sunday’s first round, the far-right National Rally (RN) and allies won 33.2%, the left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) 28.1%, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble 21.3% and the conservative Republicans and other right-wing candidates 10.2%.
Turnout was high at 66.7% of registered voters. This meant 76 seats were filled, where the winner had at least 50% of valid votes and at least 25% of registered votes. It also meant that many third candidates cleared the 12.5% of registered voters required to advance. On these results, 306 seats would go to three-way runoffs and five to four-way runoffs.
In this Sunday’s runoffs, FPTP will be used. To avoid splitting the anti-RN vote, there have been a large number of candidate withdrawals. Now there are only 89 three-way runoffs and two four-way runoffs remaining after the candidate registration deadline on Tuesday.
A Harris poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday gave RN and allies 190-220 seats (240-305 in the Harris poll on first-round election day), the NFP 159-183 seats (140-190) and Ensemble 110-135 (70-120). If this occurs, RN and allies will be well short of the 289 seats needed for a majority.
Biden still dropping in US polls
The US election is on November 5. Before last Thursday’s debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Biden was nearly tied with Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s national poll aggregate (down by only 0.1 point). Biden has now fallen 2.3 points behind, trailing Trump by 42.1-39.8 with 9.7% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The highly-regarded Siena poll for The New York Times of likely voters gave Trump a five-point lead with third party candidates and a six-point lead without, a 2-3 point movement to Trump since Siena’s pre-debate poll. State polls have not yet caught up to the debate. There’s increasing speculation that Biden may withdraw from the contest. If this occurs, a new candidate will be selected by Democrats at their August 19-22 convention.
It’s a wild dream but it could just happen that the Tories don’t even form the opposition.
Sky News mega poll forecasts a Labour majority of 210, the greatest in 200 years, the Lib Dems on about 70 seats, Reform winning 3, and the Tories slumping to a little over 100 seats.
I would bet that a good percentage of the Labour drop in polling is due to the intent to vote tactically. A web site called Stop the Tories advises voters on which of Labour, the Lib Dems or SNP is the best bet in each electorate to unseat a Tory. It has had a lot of publicity, particularly on line.
Went to vote about half hour ago on the way home from a night shift
One in the box for Labour 🙂
Lovely sunny day currently
AB: 306 seats would go to three-way runoffs and five to four-way runoffs.
I read on BBC online that after 3rd place withdrawals there are 90 3-way contests and 2 4-way contests remaining. Remaining are direct contests in French election.
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2024/0703/1458029-french-election-final-round/
Interesting results here in how UK Newspaper endorsements are going.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
Most eye-opening is:
– The Sun and Financial Times are endorsing Labour for the first time since 2005.
– The Times are not backing anyone, after endorsing the Conservatives in 2019.
– The Scottish newspapers are endorsing Labour.
– Despite everything, the Express, the Mail and the Telegraph are all endorsing the Conservatives.
– No publications seem to be endorsing Reform.
(moved from previous thread)
Work to Rule
Labour – their vote % won’t be lower than their 2019 loss, but their raw vote total could easily be if the apparent malaise amongst the electorate is reflected in a significantly lower turnout.
Conservative – I would now expect them to get at least 24% as nothing has really occurred to change the trajectory of the late swing back to them, but it’s by no means certain. There are some signs that undecideds will go as much to Labour
(moved from previous thread)
Reform – they haven’t really faded in the final straight, overall they are slightly up on the previous week. Some of the pollsters that showed them lower before have shown 3-4% increases for them in their final polls. Conversely, those that had them highest before are showing them steady or a slight decrease (one, from Whitestone Insights, showed -3% but that still left them on 18%).
So what you have with Reform is something of a convergence in the polls around the 17% figure, with signs that their support is holding strong. What they actually get, and whether they might even have tapped into those that don’t normally vote and whether the pollsters have adequately picked up this possibility, all make them even more of a wildcard at this election as they have the potential to cost other parties a lot of seats. Obviously the Conservatives mainly, but they are also costing Labour some seats they would otherwise have won from the Conservatives so it’s not all one-way traffic (think Ashfield for example, Lee Anderson’s seat).
Reform probably have to be within 16% of Labour (don’t ask me how this figure is calculated!) to be in the ballpark of taking seats directly from Labour in south Yorkshire region. This looks pretty unlikely but would contribute to an interesting discussion on the direction of UK politics after the election if it occurred.
Long-term, Reform’s most fertile ground is absolutely ‘Red Wall’ territory not ‘Blue Wall’ where, even this election, they are not likely to get close to winning anywhere. Clacton is Tory but not ‘Blue Wall’ in the understood sense, it’s a deprived seaside area.
Clem
More tactical voting would send Labour’s vote share UP not down overall, as they are the chief challengers to the Tories in the vast majority of seats.
People can’t wait to get rid of the Tories, but there’s just little love for Labour either.
The conservatives worst result in terms of seats was 1906 when they won 156, but that included 27 Liberal Unionists (Liberal opposed to Irish Home Rule…. see how well that went). They merged in 1912, hence the “Conservative and Unionist Party” name (It has nothing to do with Trade Unions).
In terms of percent, 1997 was their worst at 30.7% but in terms of total votes post World War II was in 2001 with 8,357,615. I say post WWII because Women didn’t fully get the right to vote in elections until 1928.
It is almost certain that all these records will fall.
As for Reform, Will they better the number of votes that UKIP got in 2015 (3,881,099)? Probably yes, but they will not come close to where the forerunner of the Liberal Democrats, Alliance was in the 80s. In 1983, they got 7,780,949 and were only a half a million votes behind Labour.
Other things to keep in mind – Deposit are returned if a candidate gets above 5%. It will be interesting to see how many of each of the major parties have candidates that fail to reach that threshold.
There seems to less tactical withdrawing in Northern Ireland but the DUP leader might be in trouble.
Labour seems to be struggling in Wales where they have local issues. PC might do better than expected.
Polling places open from 7am to 10pm local time! I was happy when Australian went to 6pm finish.
That’s an awfully long day for some polling staff.
And the UK’s Antony Green equivalent will no doubt be hoping for a landslide so he can make the call early.
Rupert Murdoch’s gutter outlet The Sun endorsing Labour – must be grim for the Dirty Digger to go against his principles
Common sense values are what The Sun believes in.
Britain as a meritocracy where people regardless of background can get on in life, through their own hard work.
Freedom of speech, a free Press and freedom for our journalists to expose hypocrisy and wrongdoing.
Free trade. Freedom for businesses to thrive and create jobs, and for consumers to buy what they want.
Strong borders for controlled immigration. Decent public services that provide taxpayers with a great education and medical care.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has many policies which we support.
The Rwanda plan to stop the small boats. His commitment to scrap the National Insurance tax on jobs.
The ban on teaching harmful gender ideology in schools. Putting the brakes on the headlong rush towards Net Zero. His long-held and principled commitment to our Brexit freedoms.
He has done his best to right the economic mess he inherited, much of which was caused by the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Inflation was running at 11 per cent when he became PM. He has got it down to 2 per cent – in part because he resisted wild trade union pay demands.
But the insurmountable problem faced by the Tories is that – over the course of 14 often chaotic years – they have become a divided rabble, more interested in fighting themselves than running the country.
……
There are still plenty of concerns about Labour.
They do not have a clear plan for getting a grip on immigration, legal or illegal.
They have ruled out increases to VAT, income tax and National Insurance – but, as independent think tanks agree, under Labour taxes are going up. They just haven’t admitted which ones yet.
Sir Keir, an ex-Remainer, now talks of wanting closer ties with Brussels – which could mean sacrificing some of our newly-won Brexit freedoms.
He has a mountain to climb, with a disillusioned electorate and low approval ratings.
But, by dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in No10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge.
We will hold Labour to account, without fear or favour.
But we wish them every success.
YouGov MRP’s projects the worst result for the Conservatives since 1832.
Individual seat details here
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory
Tactical voting tool to oust a Tory. For example, in Bath, your best bet is the Lib-Dem candidate according to this:
https://tacticalvote.co.uk/#
“freedom for our journalists to expose hypocrisy and wrongdoing.”
When was the last time a Murdoch rag did that?
Glorious day to those in the UK.
“Biden has now fallen 2.3 points behind, trailing Trump by 42.1-39.8 with 9.7% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.”
The chance of Kennedy still getting anywhere near 9.7% on election day is on the far side of remote, and the question is where those voters go and whether they vote at all.
Given that even the supposedly anti Trump media has made it their mission to talk down Biden, despite a lack of obvious replacements, a duck in the polls is to be expected. The question is really whether Biden sticks it out, offers a more convincing public appearance, and the media hysterics calm down, and we see if he can actually convince voters to return, or whether we’re actually going to see a candidate change which is unprecedented in modern US politics and who the heck knows what will happen.
I only heard Kennedy speak for the first time last week and it was just painful. Like scraping a metal rake on a blackboard painful.
I highly doubt he’s going to get anywhere near what polls are predicting.
”
Arky: Given that even the supposedly anti Trump media has made it their mission to talk down Biden, despite a lack of obvious replacements, a duck in the polls is to be expected. The question is really whether Biden sticks it out, offers a more convincing public appearance, and the media hysterics calm down, and we see if he can actually convince voters to return, or whether we’re actually going to see a candidate change which is unprecedented in modern US politics and who the heck knows what will happen.
”
A-E suggested that if Biden stepsdown, which is a big if, the way to get an acceptable and ‘name recognition’ candidate, is to have 1 month compressed Dem primary, where primary is done across all states on one big super-tuesday or atleast 2 primary days to finalise the candidate atleast a fortnight before Dem convention at the end of August and select a genuinely acceptable candidate instead of imposing one.
For this to happen, DNC have only about 10 days window for Biden to step down.
A lot of planning needs to be done by DNCfrom today, if it has not already started, to the process in motion, if and when Biden steps down.
One thing is for sure now. Dems cannot Presidency and/or HOR and/or Senate with Biden at thetop of ticket.
Biden was never a great candidate from the beginning and he is certainly not an acceptable candidate now.
Kennedy also has the issue that it looks likely he’s only going to be on the ballot in some states, possibly less than half of them. I think he’s still going to manage to have a big spoiler effect where he is on the ballot, but I’d be very surprised if he polls anywhere close to 10% in the nationwide vote.
None of which changes the fact that the Democrats are in real trouble right now.
Oof.
@BTSays
You’re correct, I meant to say that Labour is likely to get a lower % of votes than in their 2017 loss, yet still end up with a large majority.
Reform underperforming and the Tories doing better than the current 100 odd seat predictions are my expectations.
Re: Biden I posted this in the main thread but I’ll re-post it here to sit tonight before the deluge of UK election stuff tomorrow drowns it out:
I don’t know enough about Biden’s health to make any claim, nor am I qualified to do so. I refuse to make speculative armchair diagnoses one way or the other. What matters to me is what the perception is and, by extension, what voters think. He can be sharp as a tack and have the fitness of a 40-year-old and it doesn’t matter if what the public believes is that he’s frail and in mental decline. Politics is about perception.
It might not sound fair but, stiff shit, that’s the game. Lots of politicians have been defeated by negative perceptions that aren’t necessarily true. I wish it weren’t true but it is.
At the moment I’m more inclined to believe the last Nowcast poll that there has been a small but relatively insignificant swing back to the Conservatives in these last few days.
I think they’ll get at least 100 seats, and Labour will get between 400-450 seats. Not that it matters that much, but there’ll be quite a few voters not willing to go through with what the polls say.
Kirsdarke:
Yeah, I think you are probably correct on that one.
“A Harris poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday gave RN and allies 190-220 seats (240-305 in the Harris poll on first-round election day), the NFP 159-183 seats (140-190) and Ensemble 110-135 (70-120). If this occurs, RN and allies will be well short of the 289 seats needed for a majority.”
If this occurs won’t it show how brilliant Macron is & how the main stream media have no idea?
I also don’t understand what relevance the US polling is on an election outcome..
Biden has now fallen 2.3 points behind, trailing Trump by 42.1-39.8 with 9.7% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The real question is how many undecided ( how stupid would you be to register undecided? Only in America) & Kennedy votes would shift to a younger Democrat candidate .. one that can speak off the cuff & with coherence
USA
Kennedy pulls votes more or less equally from Trump and Biden.
However, it may vary from state to state so the devil will be in that detail.
Though a moot point if Trump remains ahead in most or all of the marginal states anyway.
Larry the Number Ten Cat has endured living with Conservative PMs for 14 years.
Britain, set Larry free. Vote Labor.
UK
Ipsos final poll has some interesting snippets on ‘Undecideds’
* 28% said they could still change their mind, the highest % at this late stage of an election since 2010 (30%). In 2019 it was 23%.
*39% of 18-24 year-olds said they could still change their mind (the highest of any age group).
* 41% of Lib Dems said they could still change their mind (the highest of any party).
* Just 13% of Reform supporters said they could change their mind
Don’t know if anyone else wants to join me in a prediction? But for a bit of fun, here goes:
Labour 419 seats (36% vote share)
Cons 117 (22%)
Lib Dem 57 (10%)
SNP 24 (3% – or about 35-36% in Scotland)
PC 3 (1% – or about 14% in Wales)
Green 4 (7%)
Reform 6 (18%)
Workers Party 1 (1%)
Independents 1 (1%)
There are a number of independents expected to win significant vote shares, but the one I predict will win a seat is Jeremy Corbyn.
SCOTLAND
SNP 24
Lab 23
Con 5
LD 5
WALES
Lab 28
PC 3
LD 1
(Con 0)
THE PEOPLE’S SOCIALIST SOVIET OF LONDON (as some leftwingers fondly like to call it)
Lab 61
LD 6
Con 4
Ref 1
@BTSays
Labour 408
Cons 143
LD 50
SNP 20
Reform 3
Green 4
Others – the rest
Excellent radio show from James O’Brien from last night on the election eve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnHUA-YUKVc
Sceptic at 10.51 pm re Macron
The mainstream media are notoriously superficial almost everywhere, perhaps including France, as well as countries (not the UK) with less crude and primitive electoral systems.
I recall speaking publicly before the 2017 French presidential election, on a panel with French expatriates who thought that Macron was a brilliant prospect.
There was concern even then about the possibility of Le Pen beating Macron. It was highly unlikely then. Even after these elections Le Pen will not be the most likely winner in 2027.
Macron failed to build a popular movement to support his policies and create a real legacy. His failure was predictable, because of his neoliberal views.
Yet a politician can be a failure substantively while tactically astute, i.e. able to deprive opponents of success they had assumed was theirs. Macron had little choice in the end, but he is not a political ditherer.
Whereas Sunak had a choice, yet chose the worst time to hold a national election.
Polls close 7am aest, then exit polls, then they say an hour till results.
Did any of Macron’s crew get caught with their pants down betting on date of French election .. just asking.
Here we go here we go here we go…..
Im choosing to watch coverage on Sky News for the extra misery. (regional is free),
Exit poll = Labour landslide
Interesting polling tool in NI is predicting based on the variable turnout in Unionist and Nationalist areas.
On this basis Belfast Telegraph is suggesting an eye is kept on Upper Bann, usually a very strong DUP seat could be at risk to Sinn Féin
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ge24-labour-party-set-for-power-as-exit-poll-indicates-a-170-seat-majority-while-ni-vote-counting-due-to-begin/a1285286033.html
Myprediction:
Labour: ~41%
Tories: ~22.5%
LDP: 11%
Greens:~ 6%
Reform: 13%
SNP: 3%
Others: rest
How on Earth could Biden re-watch that debate and think I really blitzed Trump there? Assuming he and Trump have a core vote of between 30 and 40% how many of the remaining “each way” voters would have watched and thought yep Biden is so inspiring I’m leaning more towards him now. The danger for anti-Trumpers is that Bidens non performance will push swayers to opt for the guy who can at least give the impression he knows what he’s saying (lies aside!)
Ven
The talking heads on Sky are saying the Labour share of the vote is ‘substantially’ lower than the 40% Corbyn got in 2017
My prediction is that by 1am – or maybe 2am – the Labour seat figure will have been down graded to well under 400
The predicted seats in Scotland by the exit poll bear little similarities to recent polling.
It is allocating 12 seats to the Tories a big increase and only 7 to the SNP!
Either it is because the sample size is too small or the recent polling is way out.
https://x.com/WingsScotland/status/1808982097626820656/photo/1
Sky are saying Reform are winning 3 of their 13 seats from Labour
Two of the first declarers – Blyth and Sunderland – could be 2 of the 3
Andy Burnham on Sky bigging up PR
Scratch that Sunderland is a Labour hold, Reform 2nd
7000 majority, turnout down 5%
First official results in from 8.30am AEST. Apparently.
C@t
One result in already
13% swing Con to Labour in the first result from Sunderland