The fortnightly Essential Research poll continues to find little separating the two major parties on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, with the Coalition up a point on last time to 47% and Labor down two to 46%, with the remainder undecided. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 30% while the Coalition is up one to 33%, with the Greens down one to 12%, One Nation down one to 7%, others up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 1% and undecided up one to 7%.
The monthly personal ratings record a three-point drop in Anthony Albanese’s approval rating to 40% with disapproval up to 49%, his worst net result and disapproval result from this pollster so far. Peter Dutton is unchanged at 41% approval and 42% disapproval. There are also questions on the leaders’ attributes which find the biggest distinction between the two being a 74-26 split against the notion that Albanese is aggressive, compared with 50-50 for Dutton. No doubt relatedly, there is a 52-48 break in favour of Dutton as decisive – probably the most positive result for either out of eight qualities canvassed – which comes at 58-42 against for Albanese.
There are also bad signs for the government on a semi-regular national mood question, which finds a five-point increase on last month to 54% for those rating Australia as on the wrong track, with right track down four to 30%. However, a series of questions on the Coalition’s nuclear energy policy produces broadly negative results: 48% rate Dutton’s plan as “serious” compared with 52% for an alternative of “just an attempt to extend the life of gas and limit investment in large-scale renewables”, and 38% rate nuclear energy as the most expensive out of nuclear, renewables and fossil fuels, up two since April, with renewables down five to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1141.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll finds Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (steady), Coalition 36.5% (down half), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 4.5% (down one-and-a-half). The accompanying release notes that a preference determination based on flows at the 2022 election rather than respondent allocation produces a lead to Labor of 52.5-47.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1708.
C@t:
I wonder if Team Biden hadn’t come out with the bedwetters criticism, and hadn’t tried to pass this off as nothing when people were clearly seeing with their own eyes, whether the response from Democrat elected officials and others would’ve been different?
Ditto if they’d put Biden out there on a whistlestop tour of town halls and talk shows to demonstrate to voters he wasn’t cognitively impaired.
I guess the problem with the latter option is that he physically and mentally isn’t up to that task.
OC
Ahh – so that was why no split in NSW. Most people I know think that NSW would have been better if the split had happened.
I remember saying prayers at mass for Cardinal Gilroy each Sunday. I suspect he was also the guy in the red frock who confirmed me.
D&M I think you would be happier as an internal dissident than in the governing majority of the party?
There is honour in principled dissent after all.
According to the United States Golf Association Joe Biden in 2015 had an official handicap of 6.3 which is pretty good. Trump has no official handicap. Though he has made dubious claims of having one around 2 and of winning tournaments. Though if he had actually played in tournaments he would have an official handicap, which he doesn’t.
@Confessions at 6:44pm
At this point I think it’s just cruel. It’s like watching my late grandfather who was permanently injured by an electrocution accident (he was an X-Ray technician) shambling around in his 70’s before he suffered from a stroke that rendered him unable to walk or even talk on most days.
And the Democratic party establishment being like “No. Shut up. He’s our candidate. End of story.” is off-putting in another way.
That’s an advantage Trump has over Democrats. When he talks to his supporters at his Nuremberg-style rallies, he’s actively trying to get them to like him. When Democrats try to gauge their support, it’s always “Shut up, don’t complain, you do what we say.”
BA Santamaria POV
World Championship Wrestling with Jack Little
Followed by Epic Theatre
Interspersed with Franco Cozzo ads for gaudy Italianate furniture
Lars
That is very much me and my cronies. We got Iemma and Costa, after they privatised NSW electricity assets after the ETU and the rest of the Union movement had knocked themselves out electing the Rudd federal government.
But as OC here, and others have told me, this just enabled Obeid etc. to get his claws in deeper.
C’est la vie. We can but call it as we honestly see it.
Also, having Federal Labor governments, for me, is more important than state Labor governments, because they collect revenue, and set the broad tone for the country.
This is why, I, and like-minded friends, were concerned when the NSW state Labor government was returned in 2007. And oh boy were our concerns vindicated.
Kirsdarke:
Yeah, it’s at the point where the compassionate thing is to thank him for his 50+ years of service to his country, and wish him well into his retirement.
It’s hardly like Trump to hide his light under a bushel
Voters are funny cattle.
They’re impressed by some guy who built a pile of skyscrapers, but if they knew he was a brilliant golfer, he couldn’t get elected dogcatcher.
Walter Johnson couldn’t get elected to Congress from his home town.
Entropysays:
Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 6:59 pm
According to the United States Golf Association Joe Biden in 2015 had an official handicap of 6.3 which is pretty good.
_____________________
I saw footage of Biden’s swing the other day. He would be off 36 now.
Trump’s is still OK, but does come over the top. Which means you have to manipulate the clubface on the way down.
Biden is a grifter, his 50 year ‘service’ includes a $50,000/month job for his drug addled son stealing fortunes from Ukrainians and mortgaging the family home 20 times.
He’ll be out by the end of the week anyway.
Change is a coming D&M.
If you look at the UK they had 58% 2 principals vote as compared to Australia of 68% in 2022.
Funnily enough fptp resulted in a massive majority in the uk mainly because of the reform vote.
What effect would a 58% 2 principals vote have in Australia?
I believe we have to expect this here in the next 5 yrs.
It’s actually going to be incredibly democratic .we could see the 2 majors with as little as 40 seats each.
Cardinal Gilroy of NSW successfully lobbied the Vatican in banning the clergy being involved in Australian politics in 1957. Before that period Archbishop Mannix and his acolytes formed the backbone of the DLP.
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1301&dat=19850426&id=c2olAAAAIBAJ&pg=3794,5919377
This isn’t part of your unique power without glory interpretation entropy ?
PMalcolm Turnbull was on The Project recently and evidently gave Peter Dutton a fairly blunt character assessment.
“ Joanne Villani@joannemvillani·20m
Malcolm Turnbull pulling no punches on The Project:
@PeterDutton_MP
is a thug, always divisive and Malcolm couldn’t think of anyone less suited to run a multicultural country like Australia.”
Well Socrates I would be shocked to read anything but that as a comment from Turnbull .
I am guessing like many Labor people you are impressed by Turnbull because he has 200m in assets ?
Lars
“I am guessing like many Labor people you are impressed by Turnbull because he has 200m in assets ?”
Ha! I did my thesis on (the excesses of) corporate executive compensation and the ways people like Turnbull had enriched themselves more than was justified by economic or ethical considerations.
I despise corporate cowboys. I have had more respect for Turnbull since he went into public office and tried to benefit causes greater than himself (even if I am still a bit skeptical of conservativism.
So bad guess.
Really your persuadable Socrates? Given the tenor of most of your posts I find that highly surprising.
The Vatican had to send an enforcer, the Prefect of Propaganda Fide, to tell Mannix to pull his head in on pain of “resigning”.
Surprisingly, he actually complied.
Lars
I agree. The 20th century working class left + social liberal (not Liberal!) alliance against the moneyed classes, businesses and large landowners has now completely broken down.
In some ways Israel was the canary in the coal mine, with the collapse of its Labor Party around 2000. And France and Germany have now basically lost their “Labor” parties (PS, SPD).
However, whether what replaces it will be better in the short run is hard to say.
Humans respond around almost twice as strongly to negative stimuli as to positive stimuli. It will be easy for the authoritarian right to use fear in turbulent times to their own benefit.
I read a piece by Bernard Keane in Crikey a few months ago, where he metaphorically put his head in his hands and said that he no longer thought the rise of the internet was a good thing. And he harked back to the invention of the Gutenberg printing press as the catalyst for the dissemination of knowledge, leading to the reformation, but then also to the many wars of religion that raged through Europe in its aftermath.
For me the rise of radio broadcasts, and aeroplane travel, provided a new and exciting backdrop to the Hitler rallies that eventually took some 33% of the German population by storm.
We are in the grip of popularism that is sweeping away the old political certainties.
How this pans out I cannot tell, but expect it to get worse before it gets better.
And now, we have the bomb!!!
Of course OC excommunication is healing not punitive.
D&M have you seen the Ken Loach film Land and Freedom? It’s a great film, it might appeal to you.
Excellently put DandM
Lars
Edmund Burke style Conservatism is defensible to a degree (it is still not my doctrine).
Modern conservative parties including the Australian Liberals have virtually nothing in common with it.
And yet oddly Bidens poll numbers have gone up in the last day or two.
Possibly a case of leave the old, good man alone.
That said perhaps the detail of Project 2025 may be coming to the attention of the mainstream US public.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 7:31 pm
This isn’t part of your unique power without glory interpretation entropy ?
=========================================================
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThJcHjCI9j4
Second consecutive heart breaking loss for Swans and unfortunately McDonald is the villian again. I am pissed off with this result.
Henry, while its a good sign quite a few pollsters have pointed out that a 50 50 poll reading may look even, but there’s inherent advantages to the republican; if biden wants to be comfortably in the lead, he needs to be 7plus
Henry @ #2275 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 8:03 pm
Or in the wake of a high profile event that has challenged the narrative, polls tend to be a little choppy?
The GOP convention is in another week. Likely they’ll get a bounce from that, and then we’re back to media narratives of Biden needs to go.
But none of this changes the fact that he is cognitively declining.
Not really lordbrain, that’s supposition. Many pollsters would dispute that.
That said, Biden imo should withdraw, you can see in his eyes he’s not all there.
It’s Michelle Obama for me, watch this space. She’d win in a landslide.
Socrates
I would agree with this – as you say, it is not your or my doctrine, but avoiding unintended consequences, by proceeding progressively, is not the worst thing.
But overall, he was an apologist for the worst excesses of the industrialists and others of wealth for their deadly oppression the vast majority of the people.
In the “lost quotes stuck on my wall ” department, I had a lovely rebuke to Edmund Burke, with WTTE “Wouldn’t it be appropriate to give some of the nice things that you say will be the rich heavenly reward of the factory workers who toil to their death now in factories, to them in this life.”
I suspect Fatima Payman’s did the orchestrating and what in the hell is Mehreen Faruqi going on about?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/07/mehreen-faruqi-hits-back-at-claims-fatima-paymans-resignation-from-labor-was-orchestrated
LVT
Not yet – but I will look for it. I am not a great movie watcher, but I have read everything George Orwell / Eric Arthur Blair wrote, and Homage to Catalonia was a great read.
Trump adamantly denies any knowledge of Project 2025 therefore he was probably the sole author of the hideous manifesto.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 1:40 pm
So a key aim of Project 2025 is to:
Use public, taxpayer money for private religious schools
These guys are dangerous barbarians.
=================================================
One stupid thing Australia has over most developed countries.
Even the USA doesn’t do it.
Not many countries use taxpayer money for private or religious schools to the detriment of the public system!
Glad you pointed that out!
LVT….
Turnbull was acceptable to many Labor supporters because he was essentially a small “L” Liberal, was highly intelligent and a self-made man. This kind of person is rare wanting to be a member of the LNP. He became hated by the LNP because was seen, somehow, as not being “Liberal” enough….Meaning unlike most of the other duds in the LNP.
Dutton/Morrison are the types of men Liberals love – essentially bulls in the china shop but oh, so strong…….
Jeez we have had some crap Liberal PM/LOTOs over the years this reminds me.
The Muslim Vote are selecting candidates next week to run against labor.
Knew something like this was going to happen.
The oz quotes Kos Samaras as saying it’s labors teal moment or something to that effect.
A popular mayor is also forming a party of candidates in Western Sydney saying that “Labor has done nothing”.
There are 100 thousand Aussies living in Lebanon.
The nation’s peak Islamic body says it is unlikely to provide formal endorsement for pro-Palestine candidates but would “seek to inform the community of the choices available”, as the Coalition ramps up pressure on Labor to end preference deals with the Greens over the left-wing party’s stance on Hamas.
With senior ministers in western Sydney likely to face challenges from pro-Palestine candidates and a popular local mayor at the next election, political experts warn last week’s British poll shows seats with a high number of Muslim voters are at risk of falling to independents.
Strategists warned organisations including The Muslim Vote, which is this week expected to announce the candidates it will endorse, could gain support from not only progressives but also Liberals casting a “tactical vote” to oust Labor MPs.
A spokesman for The Muslim Vote said its candidates would campaign on a wide-range of policy areas “from Palestine and local issues”, with the electoral threat given more prominence last week after West Australian senator Fatima Payman left the ALP over its stance on Gaza. Australian Federation of Islamic Councils president Rateb Jneid said the body had been in contact with The Muslim Vote, backing the group’s objective of “encouraging all Muslims to actively participate in the political process”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/well-let-our-people-decide-on-labor-islamic-leaders-say/news-story/4276dcd34dedcfe8593854eb3611dbfe?amp
D&M
Speaking of Loach, I am sure you would also enjoy The Wind that Shakes the Barley dealing with the Irish War of Independence/Civil War.
frednk
Mehreen Faruqi is actually doing a “reverse” sexism and racism thing here.
Faruqi said she had “been in touch with Senator Payman over the past few weeks and also way before that” and believed the first-term senator made up her own mind after “following her moral compass” and listening to the community.
Of course Payman made up her own mind, after consulting Glen Druery, Mehreen Faruqi and various others over the past few weeks.
But Faruqi* is implying that she could not possibly have used these conversations to decide her position, nor take advice on the getting the best bang for her electoral buck while exiting from the Labor Party.
Faruqi is just saying that it is sexist and racist to ask those questions, rather than talking about policy.
*Sad that you end up critiquing the logical of someone who you once helped hold up a banner in front of a university chancellery, saying the “Workers United will never be Defeated” of WTTE.
In terms of Labor PM’s:
Keating and Hawke are the stand outs since Curtin.
In terms of Liberal PM’s
Menzies and Howard are the stand outs
Everybody since has been awfully mediocre. Having said that true National Leaders are rare and once in a generation. That’s why no one has really had a second term since Howard because Australians have Sussed that out.
Summed it up absolutely correct there Kirky!
Some here don’t seem to get that.
I mean Turnbull as an acceptable Liberal leader by some in the Labor caucus does seem to lend credence to the theory are few of us lefties espouse…
I can see Muslims having so much support under Dutton, NOT. Be careful what you wish for. Hes no answer to anybodys problems in this country.
Met Fred Nile and his wife while handing out Labor HTV leaflets at the Gerroa polling booth in his home territory way back in the 90’s.
Lovely people, shook my hand and wished us all the best.
I’ll always respect that!
OC
Thanks!!
I will add this to my list now that I am semi-retired.
Italics fail in my post in reply to frednk at 8.45 pm.
Only the first paragraph in italics is a direct quote from the Guardian.
Everything below it is my commentary.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 7:48 pm
The Vatican had to send an enforcer, the Prefect of Propaganda Fide, to tell Mannix to pull his head in on pain of “resigning”.
Surprisingly, he actually complied.
===============================================
The Prefect of Propaganda Fide (Pietro Fumasoni Biondi) would have been well known to Cardinal Gilroy too i assume. Considering he had attended the Pontificio Collegio Urbano de Propaganda Fide, while in Rome.
The right Muslim candidate could take Blaxland.
The Liberal got 27% primary last election and Labor got 54% primary (roughly).
so the candidate has to beat the Liberal on primaries and overtake Labor on preference flows.Basically they would have to keep Labor to 40% on primaries and beat the Liberal to the final 2.
Think of it as a reverse teal.
Tricot @ #2286 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 8:42 pm
Turnbull was cut from the same cloth as John Hewson. Intelligent, humble upbringing, self made.
Hewson was never acceptable to Labor supporters because he wanted to foist Liberal survival of the fittest doctrines upon Australians. Turnbull ultimately aspired for the same, evidenced by his record as PM and Communications Minister where his NBN policy ultimately benefited the Murdoch interest over the national interest. He was never acceptable to Labor supporters for the same reasons.