The fortnightly Essential Research poll continues to find little separating the two major parties on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, with the Coalition up a point on last time to 47% and Labor down two to 46%, with the remainder undecided. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 30% while the Coalition is up one to 33%, with the Greens down one to 12%, One Nation down one to 7%, others up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 1% and undecided up one to 7%.
The monthly personal ratings record a three-point drop in Anthony Albanese’s approval rating to 40% with disapproval up to 49%, his worst net result and disapproval result from this pollster so far. Peter Dutton is unchanged at 41% approval and 42% disapproval. There are also questions on the leaders’ attributes which find the biggest distinction between the two being a 74-26 split against the notion that Albanese is aggressive, compared with 50-50 for Dutton. No doubt relatedly, there is a 52-48 break in favour of Dutton as decisive – probably the most positive result for either out of eight qualities canvassed – which comes at 58-42 against for Albanese.
There are also bad signs for the government on a semi-regular national mood question, which finds a five-point increase on last month to 54% for those rating Australia as on the wrong track, with right track down four to 30%. However, a series of questions on the Coalition’s nuclear energy policy produces broadly negative results: 48% rate Dutton’s plan as “serious” compared with 52% for an alternative of “just an attempt to extend the life of gas and limit investment in large-scale renewables”, and 38% rate nuclear energy as the most expensive out of nuclear, renewables and fossil fuels, up two since April, with renewables down five to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1141.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll finds Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (steady), Coalition 36.5% (down half), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 4.5% (down one-and-a-half). The accompanying release notes that a preference determination based on flows at the 2022 election rather than respondent allocation produces a lead to Labor of 52.5-47.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1708.
Mavissays:
Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 4:22 pm
This a turn-up for the books:
https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/new-poll-shows-biden-gaining-ground-on-trump-in-battleground-states-despite-disaster-debate/news-story/db4738e2d5f7fb957a5bc225853692df
Imagine what polls may’ve been had Biden done well in the debate.
There might yet be life in Joe.
===========================================
Alternatively they like a President who has no dictatorship ambitions. The one thing we know about Biden is his main ambition is to get his next sentence correct. Not an ambition that maybe worries the USA?
Boerwar @ #2198 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 4:08 pm
More “anti-anti-religious” because “godless communism”.
Hence appeal to the Catholic Church which could’t abide the “godless” bit.
Also based on some real and many imagined links between those on the left and the said “godless communists”
The DLP had at least two leaders who were not Catholic and certainly did not receive the endorsement of the church. Having supporters who are predominantly from one religion doesn’t make a party “religious”.
Mavis @ #2200 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 4:22 pm
I said a little while ago that the hysteria was almost completely media generated. Helped along by a few skittish Democrats.
Perhaps actual people (i.e. voters) don’t like a dignified “senior person” being beaten up by media thugs?
Bonza @ #2194 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 3:06 pm
The Christian Nationalists will be in the room this time. Much, much worse than the Neo Cons. (It’s all relative, though).
Oakeshott Country @ #2203 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 4:52 pm
Their opposition to “godless communism” had appeal across many of the Christian churches.
Mavis,
Maybe Americans believe that a President who has regular brain fades, with a competent team around him is better than a criminal with the Project 2025 team around him?
Who will ever forget B A Santamaria?
Entropy:
Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 4:46 pm
Mavissays:
Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 4:22 pm
This a turn-up for the books:
https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/new-poll-shows-biden-gaining-ground-on-trump-in-battleground-states-despite-disaster-debate/news-story/db4738e2d5f7fb957a5bc225853692df
Imagine what polls may’ve been had Biden done well in the debate.
There might yet be life in Joe.
===========================================
[‘Alternatively they like a President who has no dictatorship ambitions. The one thing we know about Biden is his main ambition is to get his next sentence correct. Not an ambition that maybe worries the USA?’]
I think there’s truth in that. I also think that now it’s getting to the business end of the election, the voting public could be starting to have a closer look at Trump. And while I don’t know how it will pan out, perhaps writing off Biden at this stage is premature.
FUBAR @ #2185 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 2:49 pm
If you look at the footage on Insiders this morning, there is somebody chasing the protesters across the top of Parliament House trying to catch them. Obviously the protesters had a head start but it is incorrect to say they weren’t pursued and no one tried to apprehend them.
Agree with you AJM. The reputation for being a Catholic party came from its origins in the ALP, itself considered by the ascendancy to be “Catholic” and Santamaria’s Catholic Social Studies Movement (The Movement)
Entropy says Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 4:46 pm
There are far more Americans who don’t want Trump than do want him. The Democrats don’t need a brilliant candidate to beat Trump, just a viable one.
Right now the Presidential election is between two bad choices. Faced with that choice, too many people may stay home.
BK @ #2215 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 4:55 pm
I had to watch him every Sunday morning, when I was visiting, as my grandfather abused him from his living room. 😀
Mavis @ #2209 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 4:22 pm
It’s extremely alarming, and is why Democrats are assessing options and asking for Biden to step aside.
In 2020 Biden won all those states with the exception of North Carolina. Now he’s trailing Trump. Imagine when he has another brain fade? Or walks away from reporters at a news conference like he did the other day, presumably because he didn’t have the confidence to face their questions?
C@t is right: if Biden was leading and had a handy buffer in the polls, he might be able to ride this out. But he doesn’t, and the party is running out of time to fix things.
Yeah, but the party isn’t BASED on religious faith like a muslim party would be.
But what about Fred Nile’s party? That was based wholly on religion from memory.
I still don’t think it’s a good idea though. Much better to form your political organising around ideas and aspirations, not religion.
I don’t think distant memories of the perceived differences between Catholic or Protestant Christianity will have much relevance for our future Australian politics. Who even remembers the expulsion and the DLP these days? How old do you have to be to remember that point of view?
It’s clear already that some anachronistic habits – like the Lord’s Prayer before each sitting – are for the chop. Maybe the acknowledgement of country cold be more resilient.
And for the more distant future, I suspect that divisions between Sunni and Shia run deeper than those between Protestants and Catholics. Those divisions could divide the House.
Yes, certainly no Christian influences in Labor policy… so they can ditch the religious discrimination legislation right?
C@tmomma:
Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 4:54 pm
[‘Mavis,
Maybe Americans believe that a President who has regular brain fades, with a competent team around him is better than a criminal with the Project 2025 team around him?’]
I guess most people think that a president has his hands on everything. But that of course is far from the truth. Trump is said to
be lazy, playing golf, eating copious amounts of junk food, and on Truth Social until the wee hours. And I think voters may feel a little sorry for Biden’s missteps in the debate. This poll should keep the wolves at bay, at least for now.
Let’s say there’d been a DLP Government?
How much different would it be to the Albanese Government?
Albo, Burkie, Bowen, Bill, Catherine King, Chalmers, O’Connor, Clare O’Neill all attended Catholic Schools, Don Farrell’s old man was a 6 time DLP candidate, likely more Catholics that attended State Schools, I’d say they’re overrepresented.
Sectarian?
Well, they clearly hate Australia’s guts, no doubt about that.
But what about Fred Nile’s party? That was based wholly on religion from memory.
What religion was Fred Nile?
You’d have to consult Wiki to find out.
ajm:
Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 4:52 pm
Mavis @ #2200 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 4:22 pm
This a turn-up for the books:
https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/new-poll-shows-biden-gaining-ground-on-trump-in-battleground-states-despite-disaster-debate/news-story/db4738e2d5f7fb957a5bc225853692df
Imagine what polls may’ve been had Biden done well in the debate.
There might yet be life in Joe.
[‘I said a little while ago that the hysteria was almost completely media generated. Helped along by a few skittish Democrats.
Perhaps actual people (i.e. voters) don’t like a dignified “senior person” being beaten up by media thugs?’]
I hope that’s the case. I’m off.
Confessions @ #2216 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 5:13 pm
The foundation of the Labour movement in Britain in the 19th century was a joint venture between admirers of French “liberty, equality, fraternity”, English socialists and (particularly) Methodists (the religion of the poor). So not based only around religion, but certainly influenced by it. I think that the strength of it was that it had support from all these directions and was not simply the outgrowth of a particular sectarian belief.
The ALP was more of a pro-Irish party than a Catholic party.
If only we could google the future.
Mavis @ #2225 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 5:15 pm
It shouldn’t keep the wolves at bay at all. It’s more of a pity poll probably, or a poll which puts the electorate in the invidious position of having to choose between the devil and the deep blue sea.
The real poll is the money poll and the bets aren’t being placed on Biden by the big donors.
On President Biden.
The radio silence from Jim Clyburn after openly discussing Harris as Biden’s replacement is interesting. It puts public statements in a whole new light when you remember that.
This might explain that poll.
Why are Republicans spending so much in Pennsylvannia?
Clyburn has not been silent.
https://twitter.com/ClyburnSC06/status/1809713737684639917
Fred Nile turns 90 in September. He was ordained a Minister in the Congregationalist Church, a mainstream Protestant demonisation that eventually became part of the Uniting Church in Australia. In many ways he seems to be a throwback to conservative Christian politicians of an earlier era (mostly Liberal) who railed against “permissiveness”, opening pubs and shops on Sundays, relaxation of censorship and so forth.
Confessions
Thanks. Not going to click on a twitter link though.
@Confessions at 5:50pm
Because Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes of the swing states (19), and also has a competitive Senate race going at the same time.
It’s also regarded as the “key flipping state” or such that if Trump wins it, then he’s almost assured to win the electoral college vote. Biden would have to win all of Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona (or Nevada) and Georgia to win if Trump takes Pennsylvania.
President Trump played golf 308 times as President, according to this source: https://thegolfnewsnet.com/ryan_ballengee/2024/04/16/how-many-times-president-donald-trump-played-golf-in-office-103836/. That’s once or twice every week for four years. To play a round of 18 holes takes about 4 hours.
That is a lot and it was commented on during Trump’s (hopefully one and only) Prediency.
Wat T,
If you are around, I always enjoy your posts.
Hope to see you after your break.
I am also finding the atmosphere a bit unpleasant. I am scrolling by most posts, except for the ones on my mental list who add value to the conversation. You are definitely on that list!
Steve777
Fred Nile turns 90 in September. He was ordained a Minister in the Congregationalist Church …
Thanks.
All that stuff … , opening pubs and shops on Sundays, relaxation of censorship and so forth…
how did any of it make Australia a better place, or even as good a place as it had been?
There was a limited split in the NSW ALP, largely because those who would be expected to split were already in charge of the party and the local prelate, Cardinal Gilroy, made it clear he would not support a split.
And here is the thing, the spiritual heirs of those people are still in charge of the NSW branch to this day.
Thanks Kirsdarke. That makes sense.
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, July 7, 2024 at 4:54 pm
Mavis,
Maybe Americans believe that a President who has regular brain fades, with a competent team around him is better than a criminal with the Project 2025 team around him?
==========================================
Your take, while having some similarities to mine, is probably more accurate. That USA people have probably a lot more confidence in Biden’s team being able to cope with his problem. Which is memory lapses. Then Trumps team being able to cope with his problem. Which is megalomania.
JFK, Clinton, Obama all played a lot of golf in office.
Sure, they were all shithouse golfers, while Trump is pretty good, though he keeps it to himself [mostly].
Badthinker @ #2246 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 6:14 pm
It is a known fact that Trump cheats at golf.
Confessions @ #2235 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 5:50 pm
Swing state that they believe they have a chance to flip. It’s also crucial for the Democrats to win in Pennsylvania for them to have any hope of winning the presidency.
Confessions @ #2236 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 5:53 pm
Very carefully edited video of Biden. Right at the end he stares off into space but a smile is quickly edited in.
Anyway, it’s not about what he’s done, but what he will be capable of in a 2nd Term.
As Biden digs in, another elected Democrat calls on him to exit race
Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), who is in a competitive race, on Saturday morning called on Biden to drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/07/06/biden-democrats-presidential-campaign/
C@tmomma @ #2251 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 6:26 pm
It’s also about whether he is capable of selling his achievements – without a teleprompter. From what we saw in the debate and the interview the other day, he clearly isn’t.
Another weakness that Pennsylvania has is that its Democratic vote is mostly reliant on its 2 big cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Everything in between is regarded as so rural-right-MAGA country that it’s nicknamed “Pennsatucky”.
If turnout is high in “Pennsatucky” country and low in Philadelphia-Pittsburgh, Republicans win.
It is a known fact that Trump cheats at golf
Golf is a cheats game, but you’ve gotta be good for a start.
JFK, Clinton, Obama, they weren’t even Little Leaguers.
Joe Biden is so dumb, not only can’t he fart and chew gum at the same time, he’d be too busy sniffin’ the bag to take a club out
‘Former Vermont governor Peter Shumlin, a Democrat who endorsed Biden fairly early in the 2020 primary, said that the struggles of the past week made it imperative that Biden drop out of the race. “With him, we lose. With the courage to pass the torch, we win,” he said in a Saturday interview.
Shumlin, who was a three-term governor and former chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, said that while he believes Biden has been perhaps one of the best presidents in modern history, he has been dismayed by what he’s seen over the past week.
“Joe ran because of what a threat he knew Donald Trump was to our democracy,” he said in an interview. “The way that he beats him for a second time is to accept his aging, to accept the changes that are happening — which will happen to all of us — and pass the torch to new leaders.”
He said his opinion was altered by the debate — and what he saw as a clear display of the toll of the job, and of simply getting older, had taken — and he was surprised that more Democratic leaders were not speaking out.
“This is Joe Biden’s decision,” he said. “But the lack of courage from the leadership of the Democratic Party, both elected and nonelected, with their shameful series of evasions and vacillations and convolution has to stop immediately. It’s time to tell the truth.”
(The Washington Post)
Badthinker @ #2253 Sunday, July 7th, 2024 – 6:32 pm
You are a vile individual. But then you’re a rabid Liberal, so it figures. 😐
”Sure, they were all shithouse golfers, while Trump is pretty good, though he keeps it to himself [mostly].”
It’s hardly like Trump to hide his light under a bushel
On a positive note with regards to timing, the first of the early in person voting doesn’t start until September. If the Democrats were to change horses at the convention that at least gives the new person a few weeks to get themselves into those states. Still not ideal.
https://ballotpedia.org/Early_voting_dates,_2024