I’m advised that the proposed federal redistribution for Western Australia will be published early afternoon eastern time in Friday, and that EMRS will publish its first quarterly Tasmanian poll since the election at around midday today. Other than that, two items of polling news, one somewhat encouraging for Labor and another rather a lot less so.
The first of these is a multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll by Accent Research and RedBridge Group, an exercise that aims for a detailed election projection by surveying a large national sample of 4040 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate, and which it plans to conduct on a roughly quarterly basis. A similar exercise was conducted before the last election by YouGov which involved Shaun Ratcliff, who is now the principal of Accent Research. It performed reasonably in predicting 80 seats for Labor and 63 for the Coalition, compared with an actual result of 77 and 58. But it underestimated the scale of the gains by teal independents and the Greens, which maintained a record of the method doing better with major parties than minor parties and independents. The YouGov exercise also had a substantially larger sample of 18,923, which presumably allowed its demographically modelling to be more finely grained.
With that all taken on board, the seat projection has Labor on 73 and the Coalition on 53 with another nine too close to call, meaning a 50-50 result after rounding to whole numbers, including seven that are lineball between Labor and the Coalition. These are Labor-held Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons and Robertson, together with their by-election gain of Aston, and Coalition-held Deakin and Moore (the latter of which points to a rather rosy reading of Labor’s situation in Western Australia).
Curtin is rated lineball between teal independent incumbent Kate Chaney and the Liberals, with Brisbane likewise between Greens incumbent Stephen Bates and the LNP, though the primary vote estimates appear to suggest Labor the more likely winner than the Greens (here I would repeat that warning about the method’s record in reading minor party and independent support). Only three seats are identified as changing hands: Cowper, where teal independent Caz Heise is tipped to succeed on the second attempt at unseating the Nationals by 52-48; Fowler, where Labor is credited with a 54-46 lead over independent member Dai Le; and Liberal-held Menzies, where Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead.
The exercise also works as a conventional opinion poll with the rate treat of breakdowns for each state and territory. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead nationally, from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. This represents very modest change on the 2022 result, which is also the case in each state and territory, including notably in Western Australia. All of the details, including the estimated results for each of the electorates (keeping in mind that these are set to be redrawn in three states and one territory), are available in the full report.
The less happy news for Labor comes from the weekly Roy Morgan poll, which is their worst result in this series for the term, putting the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with a 50.5-49.5 Labor lead last time. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down two), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 15% (up half) and One Nation 6% (up half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1715.
The UK might be better off if Liz Truss’ lettuce forms government.
‘Helena Horton @horton_official
Labour has chosen Jade Botterill, a former water company lobbyist, as a candidate for Ossett & Derby Dale. Yorkshire Water reported nearly 80,000 sewage spills in England in 2023, with spills lasting for more than 500,000 hours & was recently fined for illegal discharges’
Herald Sun 01/06
Brittany Higgins is set to tie the knot with her fiancee David Sharaz in a stunning couture gown by Australian designer Paolo Sebastian.
The grinning bride-to-be was photographed this morning leaving her hotel with Mr Sharaz and her friend and maid of honour Emma Webster wearing pink silk pyjamas.
Paolo Sebastian’s designs retail for up to $30,000
The couple’s lavish wedding is set to cost around $50,000 for a Saturday wedding on the Gold Coast estate.
_____________________
Don’t spend it all.
You need to leave some for Reynolds.
I thought it was bad luck for the groom to see the bride before the ceremony.
‘Sohar says:
Saturday, June 1, 2024 at 1:01 pm
The UK might be better off if Liz Truss’ lettuce forms government.
‘Helena Horton @horton_official
Labour has chosen Jade Botterill, a former water company lobbyist, as a candidate for Ossett & Derby Dale. Yorkshire Water reported nearly 80,000 sewage spills in England in 2023, with spills lasting for more than 500,000 hours & was recently fined for illegal discharges’’
————————————
One of the ‘benefits’ of Brexit was the ability of Britain to decouple from EU laws.
This particular outcome was one I predicted at the time.
As for your usual drive by nasty snark, typical Sohar.
Phhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhht.
A refuelling issue at Perth Airport has grounded domestic and international flights on Saturday morning, throwing the weekend travel plans of thousands into chaos.
At least 30 departures have been delayed or cancelled, as well as at least 40 arriving flights.
Both domestic and international flights are affected.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-01/perth-airport-planes-grounded-refuelling-problem/103922850
I’m watching Switzerland’s Strict Society on YouTube.
It’s eye opening!
Particularly about gun ownership.
[‘Celebrities have not been shy reacting to Donald Trump being found guilty on all 34 felony counts, marking the first-ever criminal conviction of an American president, with one notable saying “34 is now my favorite number.”
Trump is still expected to campaign once again for the White House in this year’s upcoming election, a fact horror author Stephen King noted on X/Twitter with the message: “The Republican candidate for President is a convicted felon.”
Singer, actor and long-time Democrat Barbra Streisand also turned her attention to November’s election, writing: “Convicted felon Donald Trump is blaming the judge, the jury and New York for being found guilty on 34 counts. He will never accept accountability for his crimes. Americans must not allow this felon anywhere near the White House again.”
Others reacted directly to the emotion of the long-awaited verdict being announced. Actor John Leguizamo reposted a meme ostensibly showing a bar full of people reacting joyfully to the news, captioning it with the comment: “We are all cheering for justice and that no one is above the law!”
Comedian Kathy Griffin, who was fired by CNN in 2017 after posting a picture of herself holding up the fake severed head of Trump, reacted to a fan saying that the former president is “finally getting in trouble for his mobster antics” by writing: “Thank you for saying that. It was awful and he is awful. TEARS OF JOY”.’]
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/trump-guilt-verdict-reactions-stephen-king-barbra-streisand-b2554211.html
Taylormadesays:
Saturday, June 1, 2024 at 1:05 pm
Herald Sun 01/06
Brittany Higgins is set to tie the knot with her fiancee David Sharaz in a stunning couture gown by Australian designer Paolo Sebastian.
The grinning bride-to-be was photographed this morning leaving her hotel with Mr Sharaz and her friend and maid of honour Emma Webster wearing pink silk pyjamas.
Paolo Sebastian’s designs retail for up to $30,000
The couple’s lavish wedding is set to cost around $50,000 for a Saturday wedding on the Gold Coast estate.
_____________________
Don’t spend it all.
You need to leave some for Reynolds.
====================================================
LNP staffer gets raped in a LNP Ministers office by a more senior LNP staffer. Any sympathy at all from LNP supporters for this horrible and emotionally damaging experience she suffered from?. It would appear not. It appears she will receive their vitriol for life, including on her wedding day, for the unfortunate fact that she was raped. All because her rape reflected badly on the LNP. How shallow are these people?.
Anything better than the smell of a beef casserole cooking away in the slow cooker on a cold winter’s day..?
I’m going to miss these when all the cows on earth are rightly managed out of existence.
#sacrifices
Interesting story referencing Macnamara MP Josh Burns in The Australian‘s Margin Call column yesterday.
Titled:
LaborMP’s sudden about-face on P15 and
ALP MP’s sudden romantic reversal,em/strong>;
on the following page, it also discloses that he is [or was] dating Animal Justice Party MP Georgie Purcell, “an out-and-out pro Palestine activist”.
ps: accopanying pic captioned
ALP MP John Burns, a Jew, is dating a pro-Palestinian
Badthinker
Burns batting way out of his league there.
If the degree of sympathy shown to Higgins’ over being raped by a fellow LNP staffer in a LNP Minister’s office. By many LNP supporting posters on this site. Is at all reflective of the degree sympathy she received from Reynolds and other LNP politicians for it happening to her. It is no wonder she felt unsupported.
Entropy
If you take TaylorMade ‘s comment as read, it’s very reasonable advice given Reynolds litigious tenacity.
Rex:
Neighbouring MP Michelle Ananda-Rajah could be looking for a new Seat atm, given Higgins looks set to disappear?
Has Sharaz sold the rights to the Wedding?
Is the $30,000 dress a loaner?
Given that Labor wouldn’t even be in Office without Brittany, shouldn’t they be stumping up for the Nuptials?
Badthinker
The realities of politics. Make hay while the sun shines because it could go at any time. Something Albo needs to think about.
Higgins and Sharaz are making hay. Good luck to them. 🙂
Rex Douglassays:
Saturday, June 1, 2024 at 2:18 pm
Entropy
If you take TaylorMade ‘s comment as read, it’s very reasonable advice given Reynolds litigious tenacity.
==================================================
It is very stupid advice actually. As i suspect the money spent on the wedding most likely came from their respective parents. Reynolds the bully and vengeful persecutor of a victim who spoke up, has no claim on that money at all.
Rex:
Macnamara has only had 5 Members in 100 years, all Labor.
Josh would’ve been hoping for another 15, at least?
Rex, we dont need to remove all beef from our diets. We just need to eat a lot less. We will get a livable planet in return and, speaking from personal experience, the beef tastes better when it becomes a special occasion choice rather than an every day staple.
Whether anyone, especially Alabama, likes it or not
“The Republican candidate for President is a convicted felon.”
New York State has to elect a Republican Governor ( quite possible because NY had Republican Governors), for Trump to be pardoned.
Badthinker
While Burns operates under the Labor brand, he’s living dangerously…
TK
Sounds good in theory…
Random comment
Watched Born on the 4th of July again last night. Recommend to anyone who hasn’t seen it. Tom Cruise is a nutter, but his performance in this is a masterclass. Burned into my memory after I first watched the movie many yrs ago.
TK
Sounds good in theory…
————————–
Where is your integrity? 😉
I had to find ways to make non-red meat meals more enjoyable. It took a while. You have to become a much better cook. But I tells ya, go without red meat for a couple of months then eat a really good steak – no sauce, forget the sides. And it will blow your socks off.
TK
Sounds good in theory…
————————–
Where is your integrity? 😉
I had to find ways to make non-red meat meals more enjoyable. It took a while. You have to become a much better cook. But I tells ya, go without red meat for a couple of months then eat a really good steak – no sauce, forget the sides. And it will blow your socks off.
TK:
Beef is a staple, I eat 230g tartare every other day and the same amount of Lamb twice a week.
https://www.mla.com.au/prices-markets/Trends-analysis/state-of-the-industry-reports/
23.7 kg/person is less than 500g/week, a very low aount of quality protein.
I wonder how cud chewer is these days. Haven’t heard much about very fast rail recently.
Boerwar (from this morning)
Thanks for this link on the potential for knocking out satelite coms in any future major war.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/jun/01/space-warfare-military-defence-gps-satellites-navigating-by-the-stars
The risk of this is pretty high. A lot of the world’s navies will be toast to shore based cruise missiles and drones if satellite tracking of ships remains in effect. And yes there are now lots of ways satellites can be knocked down.
I doubt the primary impact will be on the military. They can use parallel systems to backup their navigation and comms functions. For example some current missiles like Tomahawks can navigate to a target with three different systems. If one is jammed the others take over. Only one is satellite-based.
It could be a lot worse for some civilian GPS based systems, which may lack backup systems not also based on satellites. So I could see a lot of delay in transport and disruption of comms. But that will hardly destroy society.
I know beef and lamb has become a staple. Culturally. That doesn’t mean it will stay so.
What you eat is pretty much up to you – I dont support guilt trips or forced change. But if the climate impacts of cattle (compared to alternative food) arent addressed, then eventually the costs of that (or the cost of sequestering or offsetting or ameliorating) will need to be included in the cost of buying our meat.
I didn’t reduce my meat intake to save the planet. I didn’t do it for pats on the back. Merely saying I actually found it quite an enjoyable experience which I wasn’t expecting – particularly how much I now enjoy eating red meat on the occasions I now do.
It’s an interesting point of view.
Being a non citizen would, presumably, preclude access to the system’s provision of goods and services to citizens.
OTOH, if that provision is based on theft of resources then the owner surely has the right to access them.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/01/im-ready-for-everything-and-i-dont-care-the-man-refusing-to-turn-up-at-an-australian-colonial-court
‘Socrates says:
Saturday, June 1, 2024 at 3:00 pm
Boerwar (from this morning)
Thanks for this link on the potential for knocking out satelite coms in any future major war.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/jun/01/space-warfare-military-defence-gps-satellites-navigating-by-the-stars
The risk of this is pretty high. A lot of the world’s navies will be toast to shore based cruise missiles and drones if satellite tracking of ships remains in effect. And yes there are now lots of ways satellites can be knocked down.
I doubt the primary impact will be on the military. They can use parallel systems to backup their navigation and comms functions. For example some current missiles like Tomahawks can navigate to a target with three different systems. If one is jammed the others take over. Only one is satellite-based.
It could be a lot worse for some civilian GPS based systems, which may lack backup systems not also based on satellites. So I could see a lot of delay in transport and disruption of comms. But that will hardly destroy society.’
—————–
My view is that the first five minutes of any future large scale war will involve the Space Front. We will know something is happening because our phones, TVs, radios and internet will go down. But beyond that we will be even less connected than during WW2 because the analog comms systems are mostly non-existent. Just-in-time delivery of vital necessities will collapse. Spare parts won’t happen. Only guided missiles with inertial guidance will work. Dumb bombs will be baaaaaaaaaack.
Team Katichsays:
I know beef and lamb has become a staple. Culturally. That doesn’t mean it will stay so.
Culturally?
No, that’s the [imo stupid] way Beef and Lamb is marketed by the peak body.
If it was marketed as a health food rather than as a chewtoy for idiots, Public Health would improve out of sigh, imo.
Boerwar
I do not work in comms but my understanding is that the majority of critical comms forming the backbone of those systems is carried by underground and seafloor fibre optic cables, not satellite carried telemetry. I saw a figure on the % of comms and data transmission by satellite and cable and was surprised how dominant cable is for this. For example all of our road and rail comms and control systems relied on U/G cable, not radio or satellite.
So maybe a bigger threat is undersea warfare at the opening of a war to cut internet cables. Lots of new submarine and UAV designs include provision to destroy or protect sea floor cables.
But in the commercial world I have no idea what banks etc do. As we saw with a few recent hacking attacks, they did not have any backup in some cases.
Trump’s campaign claims it raised US$ 53 million in the first day after his conviction.
https://www.rte.ie/news/us/2024/0601/1452503-trump-campaign-conviction/
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Saturday the Indo-Pacific region remained a “priority” for Washington, saying the United States was secure “only if Asia is”. Lloyd made the remarks at a major security forum in Singapore, a day after he met with his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun. “The United States can be secure only if Asia is and that’s why the United States has long maintained its presence in this region,” Austin told the Shangri-La Dialogue, which in recent years has become a barometer for US-China relations.
Despite the historic conflicts taking place in Europe and the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific “remained our priority theatre of operations”, Austin said. The United States is seeking to strengthen alliances and partnerships in the region, particularly with the Philippines, as it seeks to counter China’s growing military might and influence.
As it deepens defence ties, it has also ramped up joint military exercises while regularly deploying warships and fighter jets in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea – infuriating China’s leaders.
Beijing views this as part of a decades-long US effort to contain it. This year’s Shangri-La Dialogue comes a week after China held military drills around self-ruled Taiwan and warned of war over the US-backed island following the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te, who Beijing has described as a “dangerous separatist”.
Austin met with Dong on Friday for the first substantive face-to-face talks between the two countries’ defence chiefs in 18 months, offering hopes for further military dialogue that could help prevent flashpoint disputes from spinning out of control. Austin said the United States and China would resume military-to-military communications “in the coming months”, while Beijing hailed the “stabilising” security relations between the countries.
But in his speech on Saturday, Austin appeared to take shots at China, saying there was a “new era of security in the Indo-Pacific” that was not “about imposing one country’s will” or “bullying or coercion”. “This new convergence is about coming together and not splitting apart,” Austin said. “It’s about the free choices of sovereign states.” The Philippines, a treaty ally of the United States, is a key focus of Washington’s efforts in the region.
Kimmel on “Don Whoreleone’s” convictions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sfRPosZ8CU
– and O’Donnell’s critique:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9FjPzOs2FA
There’s no one better at projection than Trump; it’s as if he was schooled in it by Goebbels.
I once had an idea to coordinate and orientate automatically using digital photography of the night sky. It is certainly possible. More so today with the improvement of digital cameras.
I am wondering if the thousands of starlink sats could be used – with some additional effort – for low accuracy stuff.
And guess who just spent the day at the Pacific Northwest Fleet’s US Base Kitsap at Bremerton being given a guided tour of the Naval Museum? Moi!
I was also given some inside information re AUKUS by the helpful navy electrician who stopped by the museum and had a chat with myself and Son #1.
Construction has started on the facility which will enable Australia to receive its Virginia Class subs by increasing the output from America. 🙂
I didn’t get to see the Virginia Class subs themselves because they are based at Keyesport, north of Seattle and Kitsap. Construction appears to occur at Naval Base Kitsap though.
Chris Uhlmann has finally found his happy place – shilling for Rupert Murdoch. This in the SmearStralian today…
COMMENTARY
Logic leaves ‘The Science’ of climate in the dust
To the zealots, the questioning of renewables policy has become evidence of the crime of climate change denial itself.
By CHRIS UHLMANN
More curious to me is that in a Cohen vs. Trump faceoff so much of the media commentary has focused on Cohen’s credibility with relatively little mention made of Trump’s status as a remorseless pathological liar with a penchant for dropping egregiously blatant falsehoods lacking even a shred of nuance.
The only way Trump avoids being a convicted perjurer like Cohen is by talking a big game about testifying on the stand and then never doing it.
Ukraine has devised a workaround for their drones which doesn’t rely on satellite technology and so they cannot be jammed by the Russians anymore. They are using eyes in the sky on the drones and AI analysis of onboard maps and comparing them with what they see on the ground in front of them and cross-referencing that with data that pinpoints Russians and their tanks etc. due to the differences between the two. When they have picked up a misalignment then they go in for kill.
It’s just that Uhlmann and his ilk don’t like or accept the scientific and economic based answers to their questioning.
Ipsos poll in US today has Biden marginally in front – with a bunch of questions on The Conviction
The Table on p3 is interesting on the question of voting impact
The Independent column is an eye-popper.
26% less likely to vote for Crooked Donnie.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-05/Reuters%20Ipsos%20Trump%20Trial%20Guilty%20Verdict%20NY%20Hush%20Money%20Topline%2005%2031%202024.pdf
Michael Cohen lied in the service of Donald Trump.
That’s it. That’s the beginning, middle and end of the story about Michael Cohen’s lying.
The Independent column is an eye-popper.
26% less likely to vote for Crooked Donnie.
————————————–
And there are a surprisingly high number of US peeps who “identify” as independent.
TK
The Ipsos has 2135 registered voters, with:
D=774
R=828
Ind=708
It seems from afar that the MAGA Republicans are alienating the ‘Normies’ by blaming the legal system, and saying it is all a witch-hunt run by Joe Biden.
Typical cowardice from an empty suit like Trump when seriously challenged under oath, along with his cooker supporters who retreat and run away from facts and real life to live a fantasy.
Some interesting opinions from Nate Silver in a recent blog post of his.
In my words;
Restrictive voter laws put in place by Republican State governments may not be as bad for Biden as previously thought – these days Trump does fairly well with lower propensity voters and the Democrats less reliant on them.
No matter who wins in Nov, Silver predicts a very bad 2026 midterm for the winner. Assuming, if Trump wins, he hasnt wrecked democracy by then.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-9-lightning-round-edition