There’s quite a bit going on in Bludgerdom at the moment, so before we proceed, some plugs for the posts below this one:
• First and foremost, the site’s thirty-seventh bi-monthly donation drive is in progress, so if you’ve ever felt this corner of cyberspace was deserving of support, there is no time like the present.
• There is a guest post from Adrian Beaumont covering today’s British local elections and various other items of news from what passes for the democratic world these days.
• I have a post up on tomorrow’s Tasmanian periodic Legislative Council elections (or to be precise, two periodic elections and one by-election), which aren’t always interesting but are this year, as the post seeks to explain.
• Still another new post looks at a New South Wales state poll that as far as I can tell has gone unreported by the paper that commissioned it.
On with the show:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up one), Coalition 36.5% (up one), Greens 14% (down two) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.
• As intimated by earlier reports, Labor has chosen Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, to fill the Victorian Senate vacancy created by the death in February of Linda White, who shared Darmanian’s background in the union.
• The Canberra Times reports a Liberal preselection to choose its Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate was won by Jacob Vadakkedathu, director of a management consultancy. Vadakkedathu prevailed in the final round over Kasey Lam-Evans by 163 votes to 121, after former ministerial adviser Jerry Nockles and former territory parliamentarian Giulia Jones dropped out in earlier rounds.
• The Liberals have confirmed former Liberal member Nicolle Flint’s comeback bid in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, which she held from 2016 until she stood aside at the 2022 election, at which it was won for Labor by Louise Miller-Frost. Also confirmed as Liberal candidates are Amy Grantham in Adelaide, who also ran in 2022, and Tea Tree Gully councillor Irena Zagladov in Makin.
• In her weekly column for Nine Newspapers, Niki Savva reports a uComms poll conducted for Climate 200 in mid-March credited independent Nicolette Boele with a 53-47 lead over Liberal member Paul Fletcher in the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield. Boele came within 4.2% of winning the seat in 2022. However, the situation in this seat is likely to be substantially complicated by a looming redistribution that will cost New South Wales a seat, which will very likely result in the abolition if not of Bradfield then of one of its near neighbours.
kage says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 10:50 am
The3 David Crowe story of the Resolve Monitor survey asserts a drop in Labor support among older men, rural seats and in Queensland. Paradoxically stronger support for Labor in marginal outer suburban seats. What does this mean?
———————–
With the federal lib/nats combined primary stuck at 36%
It will likely be a increased Labor 2nd term majority government
Labor 80+ seats
Boerwar
Shucks. Created by your’s truly.
————
I thought the real genius was in the line
“Any fool can follow any anyones at any time.”
The mesmerising rhythm of the any … any …. any…. any….
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 9:36 am
I doubt it.
Simple reason for the turn off is that us men are very good at spotting fakes. We know when someone is not the real deal.
I see he tried on the single parent upbringing again the other day. I would say that go to is well and truly past it’s used by date.
————————-
Next week Labor’s game changer Premium in responsibility , will show that the federal Lib/nats will have no alternative to it
Quite a useful discussion of the state of the negotiations, IMO:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/6/heres-everything-know-about-gaza-deal-hamas-agreed
Liked the Wilcox cartoon on the taxpayer funded crony. Riling from his seat of privilege over unions.
I suspect this might be the cronies rant referred to. Always funny when an actual crony tries to redefine cronyism though.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-not-corruption-but-the-albanese-government-is-guilty-of-cronyism-20240505-p5foyn.html
I have been looking at the polling in the UK. The last poll to have the Labour with less than 10% lead was back when Liz Truss was leader (at the time of her infamous mini-budget). The last poll to have the Tories in the 30’s was in October last year.
The lowest the Tories have ever polled was 14% in one off poll during Liz Truss’ brief PMship. But only recently have they began polling sub-20% semi-regularly.
The lowest the Tories have ever polled in a General Election was 30.7% in 1997 but their lowest number of seats was in 1906 with 156. If they produce a result in the low 20s or lower then they will probably bet that hands down.
1906 is an extremely interesting election. It was the last time the Liberals won a majority in their own right. It was the first time the Labour party managed to get more than a handful of seats after doing a backroom deal with the Liberals to avoid contesting seats against each other in a few dozen seats. The Conservatives were so badly out of sorts that they allowed the Liberal leader to be appointed as PM before the election was held.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 11:15 am
Quite a useful discussion of the state of the negotiations, IMO:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/6/heres-everything-know-about-gaza-deal-hamas-agreed
=====================================================
According to the far right state of Israel you are quoting the mouthpiece of terrorists here.
“Israel’s government has moved to shut down the operations of the Al Jazeera television network in the country, branding it a mouthpiece for Hamas.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68961753
Victoriasays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 10:21 am
This is quite amazing. Of course, the COVID idiots will disagree.
Huh?
You wanna get vaxxed?
Knock yourself out.
You want everyone else to bow down to your sage medical advice?
That’s a different story.
Tip vic labor horror budget today followed by two days of bad media then labor vic gov on Friday deflects after WA budget is out and blames the GST distribution!
‘Entropy says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 11:43 am
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 11:15 am
Quite a useful discussion of the state of the negotiations, IMO:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/6/heres-everything-know-about-gaza-deal-hamas-agreed
=====================================================
According to the far right state of Israel you are quoting the mouthpiece of terrorists here.
“Israel’s government has moved to shut down the operations of the Al Jazeera television network in the country, branding it a mouthpiece for Hamas.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68961753‘
====================
Yep. The irony was not lost on me.
Badthinkersays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 11:45 am
Victoriasays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 10:21 am
This is quite amazing. Of course, the COVID idiots will disagree.
Huh?
You wanna get vaxxed?
Knock yourself out.
You want everyone else to bow down to your sage medical advice?
That’s a different story.
===================================================
Wow, Victoria’s prediction on “Covid idiots” proven right in less than 2 hours. I’m never going to bet against anything Victoria says.
Australian retail sales volumes fell 0.4 per cent (seasonally adjusted) in March quarter 2024, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
This follows a rise of 0.4 per cent in December quarter 2023 and a fall of 0.2 per cent in September quarter 2023.
Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said: “Retail sales volumes fell for the fifth time in the past six quarters as consumers cut back on buying large household items such as furniture and electronic goods. “The only rise in volumes over the past 18 months was the December quarter last year as extensive discounting from Black Friday sales boosted volumes.”
Retail sales volumes were down 1.3 per cent compared to March quarter 2023. This is the fourth straight fall in volumes when compared to the same time last year.
https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/retail-volumes-fall-fifth-time-six-quarters
Pied Piper,
Get some sleep!
Your last post is pure gobbledygook based upon the voices in your head!
The Victorian Labor government has already telegraphed Cost of Living measures for families in its Budget that will probably be very popular.
If most consumers are like me then they know when the sales are going to be and they just wait until they come around before they buy something. Sales are pretty regular these days.
C@tmomma @ #1213 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 12:06 pm
We do a swing by of the coffee, olive oil, and toothpaste aisles every time we shop to see if those items are on sale. Otherwise it’s a no go. Olive oil at $65 for 4l, coffee at $40 kilo. We took smoked salmon off our lists ages ago, now at $115 a kilo.
It’s topsy turvy world with the compulsory vaxxers, no dissent allowed.
Really, it’s a Projection.
They want to give my kid a needle and see what happens, I say give your own kids the 46 recommended vaccines before age 5 and don’t worry about anyone else.
Mostly Interested,
I do the same thing. Burrito Bowls for $9.50 or half price on special? Buy two on special,duh!
I have to say though that I can’t understand the price of smoked salmon, in Tasmania! That’s where the industry is and I didn’t think that there was a shortage? Also,olive oil. I knew about the problems overseas in the countries that grow olives for olive oil, but I thought Australia was pretty much self-sufficient in olive oil and the problem was only with overseas product?
Also,waiting for items to be on sale also applies to big ticket items. Just wait long enough and what you need will be cheaper to buy. So I don’t think that the ABS takes savvy shoppers into account.
Badthinker wants his kids to get Polio, Measles, Mumps, Chicken Pox and Shingles, later on in their lives I see. Great parenting there, Badthinker.
Pied piper should have a look at how Albo’s Made in Australia intitiave is putting a rocket up WA miners of critical minerals – in the face of Chinese market manipulation.
And perhaps sleep on it
Vaccines are what separates today from the Middle Ages….what was life expectancy before vaccines – 40? Now its 83.
Its amazing how a couple of percent of people who are vaccine non-believers can make so much noise.
Mostly Interestedsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 12:15 pm
C@tmomma @ #1213 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 12:06 pm
We do a swing by of the coffee, olive oil, and toothpaste aisles every time we shop to see if those items are on sale. Otherwise it’s a no go. Olive oil at $65 for 4l, coffee at $40 kilo. We took smoked salmon off our lists ages ago, now at $115 a kilo.
_____________________
What’s the go with the little chocolate bars I like.
Cadbury Dairy Milk or a Twirl.
Went from $1.80, then $2 and now $2.50 in a matter of months.
torchbearer:
Life expectancy males
1880 47
1900 55
1920 59
1946 66
1966 68
1975 70
1995 76
2005 79
Scottsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 11:14 am
_____________________
“Premium in responsibility”
Had never heard of the saying until you started crapping on about it
Come up in a focus group did it ?
Holdenhillbillysays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 12:41 pm
torchbearer:
Life expectancy males
1880 47
1900 55
1920 59
1946 66
1966 68
1975 70
1995 76
2005 79
Where did you get these figutes?
Male life expectancy born 1966 – 68 years?
Some Conspiracy site, no doubt?
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 12:36 pm
Mostly Interestedsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 12:15 pm
C@tmomma @ #1213 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 12:06 pm
We do a swing by of the coffee, olive oil, and toothpaste aisles every time we shop to see if those items are on sale. Otherwise it’s a no go. Olive oil at $65 for 4l, coffee at $40 kilo.
========================================================
A kilo of coffee is a lot of coffee. How long would that last you?.
Hi Badthinker: From the ABS of course
https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features10Mar+2011
torchbearer @ #1220 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 12:33 pm
It’s our fault for framing it as a debate about belief.
People can believe whatever they want, but facts are facts and nobody gets their own special set. Not for having different beliefs, or any other reason. Science doesn’t ask anyone to take anything on faith.
It doesn’t produce different results depending upon what the experimenter believes. Belief has no place in the vaccine discussion; a person either accepts the science, or identifies the flaw in its methodology and does new science to prove the result wrong.
It’s not the year you were born but the life expectancy at that point in time.
Scott says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 1:03 pm
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 12:42 pm
Scottsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 11:14 am
_____________________
“Premium in responsibility”
Had never heard of the saying until you started crapping on about it
Come up in a focus group did it ?
—————————————————–
Have to wait to the budget to find out
Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal budget in May will have a “premium on responsibility”.
Entropy @ #1225 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 1:00 pm
What time of day is it?
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 1:04 pm
It’s not the year you were born but the life expectancy at that point in time.
==========================================================
So far more about the year you died. In fact probably everything about that.
As the life expectancy in any year is just the average age of the people that died that year.
‘torchbearer says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 12:33 pm
Vaccines are what separates today from the Middle Ages….what was life expectancy before vaccines – 40? Now its 83.
Its amazing how a couple of percent of people who are vaccine non-believers can make so much noise.’
————————-
The first biggy was probably fire. This generated a big energy bonus.
The second biggy was probably eating bone marrow which added an enormously nutritious food source for no additional effort.
The third biggy was probably farming.
The fourth biggy was probably systems for storage and preservation.
The fifth biggy was probably separating drinking water from sewage. (There is a clear signal for this in the population graphs).
Anti-vaxing proves some people make irrational decisions. I never make irrational decisions even when I vote Liberal. 🙂
You can substitute a cheaper vegetable oil for most of the functions of olive oil.
Coffee?
Boiled water as a substitute?
Yeah, nah.
Taylormade @ #1221 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 12:36 pm
Yep, I feel for you. Icypoles at primary school went from 10c in 1982 or 32c adjusted for todays prices. But wait, what, I see them for sale at $2.75 whats that all about then? That’s 85c in 1982 terms.
This capitalism malarkey is certainly working well (just not for icypole eaters).
It would be utterly irresponsible for a Fed Govt to leave people living below the poverty line. Chalmers can spin as much as he likes.
Those propagandists!
Fifth columnists!
Pseudo-scientific nonsense-peddlers!
Lizard-people pedophiles!
The Victorian state budget is about as much of a horror-show has been expected.
I think a lot of people without families are getting getting pretty sick of governments talking like they don’t exist: at every turn, Allan talks about how it is a budget “for families”. It is, quite literally, suggesting to other voters that this a government not particularly concerned about them.
The only cost of living measure only applies if you have school aged kids.
It dumps an Andrews government promise that actually would’ve helped a lot of single people: the sick pay for casuals scheme.
And it dumps the long-existent state assisted-homebuying scheme, trying to use the proposed federal scheme as an excuse, even though the tiny Victorian share of the federal scheme won’t even replace the cuts being made to the Victoria one.
Alongside the brutal cuts to a public service that is already ceasing to function from understaffing – and a failure even to rein in the debt despite that, it’s a pretty ugly picture.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: choosing Allan has his successor might well prove to be Andrews’ worst mistake, for all his successes in office.
“Other risk factors associated with premature death include not being immunised against disease”
https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features10Mar+2011
Hi Holdenhillbilly
From your ABS link:
Causes of death
Case Closed, I believe?
Dwh
You’d be a Teal voter these days, surely …?
Rex hard to find a teal candidate in Longman. But yes I’m sympathetic to the teal outlook.
‘Rebecca says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 1:18 pm
The Victorian state budget is about as much of a horror-show has been expected.
I think a lot of people without families are getting getting pretty sick of governments talking like they don’t exist: at every turn, Allan talks about how it is a budget “for families”. It is, quite literally, suggesting to other voters that this a government not particularly concerned about them.
The only cost of living measure only applies if you have school aged kids.
It dumps an Andrews government promise that actually would’ve helped a lot of single people: the sick pay for casuals scheme.
And it dumps the long-existent state assisted-homebuying scheme, trying to use the proposed federal scheme as an excuse, even though the tiny Victorian share of the federal scheme won’t even replace the cuts being made to the Victoria one.
Alongside the brutal cuts to a public service that is already ceasing to function from understaffing – and a failure even to rein in the debt despite that, it’s a pretty ugly picture.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: choosing Allan has his successor might well prove to be Andrews’ worst mistake, for all his successes in office.’
—————————
So, the systemic problem is not borrowing even more and spending it?
Badthinkersays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 1:22 pm
Hi Holdenhillbilly
Case Closed, I believe?
===================================================
Certainly is, with vaccines obviously falling under the category you posted as “medical advances”.
“This reduction is generally believed to be the result of medical advances,”
Interesting article posted by badthinker. I wonder if the part that referred to medical advances includes vaccine development?
Beat me by 60 seconds Entropy. 🙂
Mostly Interested @ #1231 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 12:39 pm
Giggles.
Aldi coffee is great and always fresh and always cheap.
You can get better coffee at similarly low prices… but rarely at supermarkets. Some online roasters with slightly fresher and yummier coffee have regular deals for $35 for a 1 kg bag.
Actually base on 1950 life expectancy I should have died 9 years ago.
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 1:31 pm
Interesting article posted by badthinker. I wonder if the part that referred to medical advances includes vaccine development?
====================================================
Yep, vaccines and antibiotics would be the two biggies in that category i suspect.
What do you get when two big noting narcissists have a conversation? Well the dodgier one goes on a name-dropping bonanza…
Scott Morrison claims that China ‘wants to rule the world’
Former prime minister Scott Morrison claims China “want to rule the world” and called Vladimir Putin “the most chilling person I’ve met” in a radio interview with Kyle and Jackie O today.
The recently-retired MP is out on a PR blitz for his new book. Joining the radio shock jock duo this morning, Morrison referred to the incident where Australian authorities accused a Chinese jet of dropping flares dangerously close to a navy helicopter off the coast of South Korea:
[The Chinese government] want to be the dominant powerful force in our part of the world, invade Taiwan and take it over, and rule the world or their part of it with their regime which denies people liberty.
That’s something Australians will never accept.
He went on to talk about various world leaders. He called Russian president Putin “the most chilling person I’ve met, just a cold sort of guy”, Boris Johnson “the funnest guy I’ve met, a good bloke”, and said “I got on well with Donald Trump”.
“He understood the Australia-US relationship was important,” Morrison said of Trump, saying the former US president was “amazingly friendly toward me”. Morrison recounted a moment, when visiting Trump, that the then-president read out a poem written by Morrison’s distant aunt during a toast.
“He pays attention to detail in relationships,” Morrison said, adding that he didn’t believe a second Trump presidency would be the end of the Australia-US relationship.
Plugging his book, Morrison says Australian ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, is hosting his book launch at the Australian embassy in the US next week. The book will be launched by former American secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, the former PM said.