The Coalition has now chalked up consecutive two-party preferred leads in Roy Morgan for the first time this term, its lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49. The primary votes are little changed, with Labor up half a point to 30%, the Coalition up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706. The Financial Review also published further results from its Freshwater Strategy poll showing 38% support for a longer term for the House of Representatives, with 44% opposed.
Preselection news:
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, is all but certain to win decisive Socialist Left backing to fill Labor’s Victorian Senate vacancy resulting from the death of Linda White in February. However, four further candidates are rated likely to nominate for the factional ballot, though not to win, “to force a party ballot amid frustration over ethnic diversity and union influence”. They are Wesa Chau, director of public policy at Multicultural Leadership Initiative; Pamela Anderson, chief executive of Labor women’s advocacy group Emily’s List; Nadia David, a farmer and criminologist; and Sorina Grasso, deputy mayor of the City of Knox. The party’s national secretary, Paul Erickson, and Victorian Attorney-General Jill Hennessy, have reportedly knocked back approaches to nominate.
• Samantha Ratnam, Victorian Greens leader and member for the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, has announced she will quit state politics to seek preselection for the federal seat of Wills, which Peter Khalil retained for Labor ahead of the Greens by margins of 4.9% in 2016, 8.2% in 2019 and 8.6% in 2022. She faces a rival in the party’s candidate from 2022, Sarah Jefford, but Annika Smethurst of The Age rates Ratnam a “near certainty” in a party ballot for which voting wrapped upon Wednesday. The Age further reports the Greens hope to “unite conservative Muslim voters with young progressives”, it being presumed that the former will be disaffected over the government’s stance on the conflict in Gaza.
• A Liberal preselection last fortnight for the Perth seat of Tangney, which the party will be optimistic of recovering after Sam Lim gained it for Labor with an 11.9% swing in 2022, was won by Mark Wales, SAS veteran, Survivor winner and author of a novel about a future war with China. Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports Wales was a “clear winner” over Howard Ong, an IT consultant, and Sean Ayres, a litigation lawyer and staffer to the previous member for the seat, Ben Morton.
• The Financial Review reports Roanne Knox, former Deloitte consultant and founder of children’s fashion label Chasing Sunshine, will shortly be endorsed by the Liberal state executive as the candidate for Wentworth, where teal independent Allegra Spender defeated now Senator Dave Sharma in 2022. Peter King, who held the seat for a term before being deposed for preselection by Malcolm Turnbull in 2004, was earlier rated as a contender, has ultimately declined to nominate.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports Jess Collins, conservative-aligned Lowy Institute research fellow and unsuccessful candidate for the late Jim Molan’s Senate vacancy in November, will contest the Senate preselection ballot for the next election, potentially posing a threat to Andrew Bragg, a moderate who alienated many in the party by supporting the Indigenous Voice. The other incumbent, centre right-aligned Hollie Hughes, is likely to get the top position.
BK @8.06:
Having entered my 80th year some years ago, let me assure you there is still much ahead of you to enjoy and do.
It occurs to me that perhaps you prefer/are fortunate to share the date of your birthday with the late Queen rather than with the Fuhrer, as do two of your offspring and I!
edit: added two minor words.
‘Taylormade says:
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 7:55 am
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 7:39 am
If you study the graphics you will see that one Israeli town, Kiryat Shimona, has been the subject of around 200 attacks by Heshbollah. It also identifies the dozens of Israeli towns and kibbutzim that have been evacuated.
_____________________
Know the geography well. Right up in the North east corner.
My old stamping ground from my days as a volunteer on Kibbutz Dafna.
We did have a couple occasions where we had head down into the bomb shelter but never had to evacuate.’
======================
Thanks. We are all, after all, human.
Strikes targeted what appears to be weapons depot in Babylon province, central Iraq, that belongs to Iran-affiliated Popular Mobilization Forces.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 6:09 am
A rare unity ticket from Dutton and the PM wrt that disgusting individual and menace to society, Elon Musk (you can be a good inventor and businessman and a disgusting individual too):
—— ——————-
Shows how far from reality, ignores the truth, C@ts comments are. And she has a special hatred for me. Get a grip C@t!
Albanese and Dutton are in lock step on most policies.
AUKUS.
A war against China
A war against Muslims, note Gaza. Labor MP Husic today in The Guardian says Muslims and Arabs are not pleased with Labor policy here.
The National Anti Corruption Commission. ‘Exceptional circumstances’ only way the voters will know anything. In cooperation with Dutton.
Giving $big dollars over $12billion to private/religious schools. Annually. While the 64% of Australian students get less. The wealthier parents too get good tax deductions for donations to wealthier schools building funds.
All private business providers who gain many $billions of our taxes annually for running aged care, child care, private health insurance, NDIS, job providers,…
Often for poor services to customers.
Do we ever know how many Jobseekers get jobs solely from job providers? And how much our taxpayers $’s support these wealthy people?
Defence spending a priority over increasing homelessness, adult and child ( 1 in 6 Australian children ) living in poverty, environmental protection.
Hard to see there is much difference.
Labor is not the party of displaying policies ‘giving everyone a hand up’ anymore.
Voters notice how Labor supports most Liberal policies. Voted with the LNP mostly when in Opposition. For many years.
Donors needs to Labor all important. Young people are noticing Labor not interested in them.
And primary vote steadily dropping. 30% now. How much lower will it fall?
BK
You are indeed a marvel.
Many happy returns!!
Hh
Yes, ‘Babel’ got a mention in the original reporting. It rung a biblical bell. I assume/hope this is a reference to the same set of strikes as the ones on Isfahan and Tabriz.
”
Justice Michael Lee distilled the essence of the omnishambles – “from the first moment, the cover-up component was promoted and recognised as the most important part of the narrative”. His judgment has destroyed one of the most extraordinary and consequential conspiracies hatched in the annals of Australian politics, writes Pontificating Paul Kelly in another rearguard action for The Australian.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/allegations-of-political-coverup-in-higgins-saga-finally-debunked/news-story/e5216a6f3d5f75b35c2d8700b7cc5c74?amp=
”
Did you see the similarities between what pusillanimous, ponderous, pontificating Paul Kelly wrong and what people like FUBAR, PP, Badthinker, Meherbaba did on the day Judge Lee judgement was read?
They are almost identical.
But the case lodged by Bruce Lehrmann was not about the cover-up component of the Channel 10 investigation.
It is about Lehrmann being defamed by the accusation of rape in that Channel 10 story. That is the central component of the Lehrmann defamation case against Channel 10.
And Justice Lee ruled that Lehrmann raped Higgins.
Morning all. BK happy birthday! Congratulations and have a great day. Your morning roundup is always a source of wit and wisdom.
Speaking of the roundup, the articles by Tingle and the Saturday Paper are excellent. Less so much this one though:
“ Greg Sheridan reckons Albanese and Marles will cripple our defence capability for at least a decade.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/albanese-and-marles-will-cripple-our-defence-capability-for-at-least-a-decade/news-story/59de56428113f059ba12b514e6a93f6a?amp=
I have a few concerns about this one:
– despite my suspicions over AUKUS and the Hunter frigate project, the Defence strategy and program announced this week were good. No more stupid mid east wars and a genuine increase in spending on better targeted areas, many of which will be made locally.
– the decline of the ADF under ten years of LNP rule, with billions wasted on never received or never working capabilities, passed by these two unnoticed.
BK
Happy birthday and many happy returns. Thank you for your round up which is my first port of call every morning.
With all the angst going on in the world with Ukraine, Israel, floods and weather events.
Closer to home, the horrendous massacre etc.
What do I see in my news feed. An article from Steve Price proclaiming that he is going to return to his birth place of Adelaide. Why. Cos Melbourne, is woke dirty and violent.
And of course, Melbourne is the protest capital of Australia, because our laws allow it. This is outrageous and must be stopped. This is from the same guy who said that we were living under a dictatorship with Dan Andrews.
How can we be a free all and a dictatorship at the same time. Sheesh.
You can’t make this shit up.
For Ven and C@t:
Collins Dictionary:
“Definition of ‘in/into ecstasy’
in/into ecstasy
PHRASE
If you are in ecstasy about something, you are very excited about it.”
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/in-into-ecstasy
”
“Rape myths are extremely dangerous. Did the Lehrmann verdict bust them?”. Julia Baird explores the long-held beliefs that have held women victims back from getting justice. She concludes that after the awful, vitriolic and often ignorant public debate we’ve seen during the Lehrmann trial, now is the time to elevate the best drivers of change: experts, evidence and experience.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/rape-myths-are-extremely-dangerous-did-the-lehrmann-verdict-bust-them-20240419-p5fl54.html
”
Julia Baird: ““Rape myths are extremely dangerous. Did the Lehrmann verdict bust them?”. Julia Baird explores the long-held beliefs that have held women victims back from getting justice. She concludes that after the awful, vitriolic and often ignorant public debate”
Me: Ms Baird, here is newsflash for you. That ignorant public debate is still carried out by politicians like Dutton, so-called respected RW commentators in media like Paul Kelly and many other Right Wingers on social media websites like PB. The more it changes the more it remains the same.
There has been concerted effort to muddy the waters after Justice Lee verdict.
Apart from Gaza, what attraction would the Greens have to conservative Muslim voters? There LNGBCT+~ support? Anti-religion and anti-private religious schools policies? Anti-faith based counsellors in schools policy?
A good recap of the day’s Trump criminal trial – including important comments on his dozing, farting and general dishevlment having to sit all day long in court.
The jury are seated, all motions to delay dismissed, the case itself starts Monday US time.
https://www.youtube.com/live/EPZEQ504qXw?si=e58qWiw2Apz53T8h
Here we have the Guardian shilling for Ratnam:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/20/a-test-in-wills-greens-hopeful-samantha-ratnams-federal-politics-gamble-will-pay-off
Victoria:
“… Steve Price proclaiming that he is going to return to his birth place of Adelaide. Why. Cos Melbourne, is woke dirty and violent.”
Andrew Bolt made a similar to-do did about his withdrawal from roughhouse Melbourne …
… to the distant sanctuary of Frankston.
What has Adelaide done to deserve Steve Price??
In a week where several myths about the Lehrmann case were demolished, this Guardian article demolishes some of the myths about her payout. The NACC has no power to investigate Brittany Higgins. She is not a public official.
“ Geoffrey Watson, the former counsel assisting the NSW corruption watchdog, said it was “nonsense” and “offensive” to suggest the NACC would ever pursue an investigation into this.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/20/brittany-higgins-compensation-bruce-lehrmann-case-anti-corruption-commission-investigation-ntwnfb
…but there’s a women problem. Apparently.
Imagine how many points tha LNP would be ahead without its women problem.
Lars
I do not have any great hope. Gerard reached his Peter’s level when he was driving the Ambo in Kempsey.
”
After a week of mass-murder and terror, we must take a look in the mirror, urges Peter Hartcher. He points out that for Australia, a violently riven community is an existential threat. We are the most multicultural among the substantial developed nations, with double the US proportion of immigrants, for example.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/after-a-week-of-mass-murder-and-terror-we-must-take-a-look-in-the-mirror-20240419-p5fl57.html
”
But a lot of people appear to be saying “sorry Peter, we don’t want to look in the mirror because we are terrified of knowing what will find”. BTW, COL crisis here we come.
”
“Why has one knife attacker been labelled a terrorist, and the other, not?”, askes Deborah Snow.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-has-one-knife-attacker-been-labelled-a-terrorist-and-the-other-not-20240416-p5fk7x.html
”
A $64,000 question. Yah, I know the definition of Terrorism in NSW statutes.
The 3rd part of the statute applies to Bondi murderer. Apparently, that was considered by NSW police.
The New York attorney general’s office has asked a judge to void the $175 million bond former President Trump secured to put off paying the larger monetary damage award in his civil fraud case.
State lawyers said in court filings Friday that the former president and his co-defendants — the Trump Organization and its top executives, including his two eldest sons — failed to prove the surety Trump used to obtain the bond actually has the money to back it. They also say the defendants did not show that “sufficiently secure and ascertainable” collateral backs the bond. “Based on the foregoing, the People respectfully request that the Court deny Movants’ motion to justify the surety, declare the Bond to be without effect and order that any replacement bond be posted within seven days, along with such other and further relief the Court deems necessary and appropriate,” lawyers with New York Attorney General Letitia James’s (D) office wrote in a 26-page filing.
Trump’s bond was secured by the California-based Knight Specialty Insurance Company. State lawyers argued Knight is a “small insurer that is not authorized to write business in New York” and, until Trump, had “never before written a surety bond in New York.”
FUBAR:
“…but there’s a women problem. Apparently.”
The recent examples of Lehmann and Taylor Martin further confirm that well-established fact.
“Imagine how many points tha LNP would be ahead without its women problem.”
Imagine, indeed. If only Peter Plod was capable of imagination …
There hasn’t been much room in the media to discuss the housing crisis this week, but it’s still an issue. This story has an important lesson.
In NZ Ardern passed important legislation early in her term to wind back negative gearing and attack housing un-affordability. Problem was that with Covid pressures it wasn’t enough. House prices kept going up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-20/nz-reinstate-interest-deductibility-on-investment-properties/103685396
Lesson: an adequate supply of housing still really matters. So does an adequate supply of skilled workers, materials and land to build those houses on.
Many VERY happy returns BK!!!!!
FUBAR:
“Imagine how many points tha LNP would be ahead without its women problem.”
Oh, wait. Maybe they’re finally getting the hint:
“… Roanne Knox, former Deloitte consultant and founder of children’s fashion label Chasing Sunshine, will shortly be endorsed by the Liberal state executive as the candidate for Wentworth, where teal independent Allegra Spender defeated now Senator Dave Sharma in 2022.”
But, of course, one swallow does not make a summer (as the actress said to the bishop).
Since the Liberals don’t have a women’s problem and are into candidate recycling, I reckon they should bring back and get preselected Christian Porter and Alan Tudge before the next election. Should prove their problem is over.
Have a good day all.
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 8:29 am
The real disservice to Jodi McKay was when she was the Member for Newcastle. Joe Tripodi, a leader of the dominant Terrigal faction conducted a secret campaign to ensure her defeat at the 2011 election.
It is alleged that Tripodi took a commission from the Boganaire, Nathan Tinkler, to promote his plan for a new coal loader which McKay opposed.
This will be coming before the courts sometime this year.
—————————-
Thanks Oakeshott. Correct. You really have to laugh at C@t’s naivity, foolish adoring belief in Labor and women.
The first time McKay was attacked and denigrated by Labor was in 2010/2011 when she was against another coal loader at Newcastle Port NSW Labor wanted for ‘mining magnate’ Nelson Tinkler.
Jodi McKay weeps in the dock as ICAC hears of Labor smear campaign
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/01/jodi-mckay-weeps-in-the-dock-as-icac-hears-of-smear-campaign
This latest time, 2021, Labor figures leaked bad polling (who knows) as a reason for her deposition. Labor didn’t win the permanently Upper Hunter National electorate in 2021. A poor excuse for her to be pushed out.
Of course, if it is a man, a favourite of Labor men, bad polling is no problem. No one in Federal Labor would tell Bill Shorten before the May 2019 election his figures were poor. He was widely unliked. But being a man he was allowed to stay Labor leader. That’s sexist.
BK
Happy Birthday
You share it with my daughter, who trails you by 61 years, and the late QEII
Edit: just saw Bennelong Lurker mentioned the late Liz.
Irene
Following on from Lars, the person who very publicly organised the coup against McKay was Gerard Hayes.
If he is Labor’s great reforming hope, God help us all.
Boerwar @ #59 Saturday, April 20th, 2024 – 9:02 am
+ 1
Cat continuing to confirm the rule that only acceptable women are allowed to be considered as deserving of the support of the sisterhood and the rest can do and get fucked because they are politically unacceptable.
BK: Happy Birthday mate, have a great day, and thanks for the sterling contributions you make to the Poll Bludger community .
Oakeshott Country @ #42 Saturday, April 20th, 2024 – 8:29 am
Everything that’s wrong with NSW Labor always comes back to the Terrible Terrigals, doesn’t it? They continue to infect everything. Which, just by the way, includes …
https://jacobin.com/2020/11/australian-labor-party-anthony-albanese-new-south-wales-right-wing-politics
I look forward to reading what the partisans here have to say about this.
I do have a problem with Federal Labor continuing to fill Senate vacancies with union hacks, surely the pool of candidates could be extended from the world of union staffers.
FUBAR @ #82 Saturday, April 20th, 2024 – 9:33 am
Absolute garbage from a not disinterested observer. If nath were here he would no doubt refresh all our memories about how much support I showed Jodi McKay. Ultimately though, reality had to intervene, and NSW Labor had to look for a new leader who wasn’t on the nose like Jodi had become. And they got it right, because I had personal interactions with Jodi and she just wasn’t leadership material at the end of the day. Zero to do with her gender, or the feckin’ ‘Sisterhood’, you gormless Liberal twit from half a world away.
Oliver Sutton
Yes Bolt retreated to the morning peninsula which is actually classed as outer Melbourne.
These people are a complete Joke.
And whilst on the woke bullcrap. I would like them to define what woke actually means. Cos if Melbourne town is supposedly woke. I’m all for it in spades.
Oakeshott Country @ #80 Saturday, April 20th, 2024 – 9:31 am
Yes, we know there are a lot of you who lurk in the shadows who would have been happy to see Labor sink like a ship at the last election with Jodi out front. Interesting how none of you vote Labor. Not.
Gerard Hayes, for all his obvious faults, is someone who is a hard head when it comes to enabling Labor success. If he has to bang heads together, so be it. If it’s for the right reasons, even better. And getting a NSW State Labor government elected after the turmoil of the Obeid/Roozendaal/Tripodi/McDonald years, was the best reason of all.
A very happy birthday to you, BK!
I guess Steve Price could have written a piece about the 3 women murdered in Ballarat by young white males, or the massacre in Bondi by a youngish white male.
Nah. The city of Melbourne is woke. Gotta leave and go to Adelaide.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. You odious piece of crapola.
But are the just farts?
————-
Meidastouch…..
Meiselas: What I’m hearing from credible sources is that Donald Trump is actually farting in the courtroom… I’m hearing it from actual credible people that as he’s kind of falling asleep, he’s actually passing gas and that his lawyers are really struggling with the smell.
Ven: “After a week of mass-murder and terror, we must take a look in the mirror, urges Peter Hartcher. He points out that for Australia, a violently riven community is an existential threat. We are the most multicultural among the substantial developed nations, with double the US proportion of immigrants, for example.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/after-a-week-of-mass-murder-and-terror-we-must-take-a-look-in-the-mirror-20240419-p5fl57.html”
But a lot of people appear to be saying “sorry Peter, we don’t want to look in the mirror because we are terrified of knowing what will find”. BTW, COL crisis here we come.”
——————————————————————–
Well, I suppose. But methinks Mr Hartcher is being more than a little hyperbolic here.
Sadly, there’s not all that much new about the Cauchi stabbings. In 1991 there was a massacre at Strathfield shopping mall in which a shooter killed seven people and injured six more, before turning his gun on himself. Then, of course, there was the Port Arthur massacre which overshadows both Strathfield and Bondi and in which 35 were killed and 23 injured. As far as I can see, none of these massacres had anything whatsoever to do with multiculturalism, but were the work of mentally-ill loners.
As for the stabbing of the Bishop and the subsequent riot by his followers: we’ve certainly had riots of this nature in the past: arguably the one at the pub in Alice Springs was comparable in some ways, as were various other attacks by groups of Indigenous people on pubs and police stations in outback Australia. Yes, the stabbing of the priest has been deemed a terrorist act, but I think it was only marginally so: it’s hardly comparable to the unfortunately fairly regular spree killings by Islamic terrorists in Europe, let alone something like the massacre in the Christchurch mosque.
In short, I don’t agree that we are in the middle of a crisis, or facing an existential threat. We are fortunate that our Islamic community is generally calm and moderate – even on the Palestine issue – and is increasingly engaging itself in beneficial ways with our broader society. Thankfully, we do not have the ready availability of automatic rifles and revolvers of the US. Australia remains safe and cohesive IMO.
To be honest, I’m far more concerned about the state of Indigenous communities: both their inherent problems and their difficult relationship with the rest of us, which hasn’t been made any easier by the failure of the (IMO ill-judged) Voice referendum.
“Woke” means that you favour ideas and people to which the Right-wing establishment (political and media) is either indifferent or actively hostile.
To be fair c@t was the strongest supporter of Jodi on here up until the moment she got rolled.
Party line changes so does c@t.
The last time the Federal Greens party had a female leader was 2015. The last time Federal Labor did was 2013 – and she was removed by the party. The Greens have had two male leaders since then, and Labor, three. The only state Greens branches with leaders are Tasmania and Victoria both of whom have been lead by women (up to yesterday the case of Victoria, admittedly, given Ratnam has resigned for her federal tilt).
Regardless, I don’t see how any of that is a useful comparison between the two, or puts either in a better light?
Ha ha, Irene. I see you still regurgitating absolute crap about Labor and Jodi McKay, aided and abetted by your Liberal groupies. Making rash and unfounded generalisations like, ‘if it were a male leader, like Bill Shorten’, when the fact of the matter re Bill Shorten was it was too close to the election in 2019 and the polls had been wrong about him in 2016.
Gotta love the way you’ve decided on which Anti Labor scabs you’ve decided to pick at, Irene. Bill Shorten, Jodi McKay, Child Support Workers Labor apparently doesn’t want to support and, apparently, po’ women and children who need to be supported by charities because evil Labor won’t do it. And so they deserve more money from Labor. When you fail to mention that the main reason religion-based charities don’t pay tax…is so they can devote that money to their charitable works. Oopsie, forgot to mention that, did we, Irene? But, of course charities will always bring out the begging bowl for more and their media departments will craft begging emails and create ads to pull at people’s heart strings and purse strings. That’s their game, and they’ve become very good at it. And your game is cynically using that, and any other angle you can come up with to assail Labor, pretty much baselessly. Of course, there’s a skerrick of believability in all you contribute, the best disinformation campaigns have learned to work that angle assiduously, but, at the end of every day, it is, and always has been, and likely always will be, picayune pablum. Opportunistic to the max. Obviously so.
Correction needed, Will. Linda White’s death has created a Senate vacancy in Victoria, not NSW.
Sorry, being a bit slow to catch up with everything on PB today.
Happy birthday for tomorrow BK. Enjoy the delightful South Australian autumn weather.
Anyway talking of the Peter’s principle here is Jodi McKay on 9/11
https://youtu.be/3GsZnCZLlxI?si=61Rk6UmvTLcO7cVQ
Victoria @ #91 Saturday, April 20th, 2024 – 9:57 am
Adam Kinzinger really started something there by pointing that out. 🙂