Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Essential Research follows Resolve Strategic, though not Newspoll, in finding Labor in its weakest position since the election.

Newspoll aside, it’s been a week of soft polling for Labor (see also the previous post on the Dunkley by-election), including their weakest result this term from Essential Research. With the undecided component down a point to 4%, it finds the Coalition up a point to 35% and Labor down one to 30%, respectively their best and worst results this term, with the Greens down one to 13% and One Nation steady on 7%. The Coalition also leads on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure for the first time, up two to 48% with Labor down three to 47%.

The monthly leadership ratings nonetheless find Anthony Albanese up a point on approval to 42% and steady on disapproval at 47%, while Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 44%. A number of further questions inquiry into the leaders’ and parties’ performance in different policy areas. A monthly national mood question finds a one-point increase in right direction to 33% and steady on wrong track to 49%.

High awareness was recorded for last week’s asylum seeker arrivals in Western Australia and the release of immigration detainees (66% and 61% respectively), and finds 59% of the view that the government is taking too long to put those released back into detention and 51% of a view that the government is “losing control of its borders”. Sixty-two per cent supported criminalising doxxing (described in the question as “the public release of personally identifiable data (e.g. phone numbers, addresses, social media details) with malicious intent”) with only 19% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1145.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition drawing level on two-party preferred for the first time since December, erasing Labor’s 52.5-47.5 from last week, with Labor down two-and-a-half points on the primary vote to 31.5%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1682.

Nine Newspapers have published further results from the Resolve Strategic poll, including one finding 36% in favour of nuclear energy, 23% opposed and 27% “open to the government investigating its use”. On the revised state three tax cuts, 52% were in favour and 14% opposed, with 37% considering the $146,400 threshold for greater and lesser tax cuts under the stage three changes to be about right, 14% too low and 17% too high.

A series of questions on other potential changes found 40% supportive and 26% opposed to reducing negative gearing concessions, 36% and 24% for reducing capital gains tax concessions, 28% and 29% for reducing franking credits, 39% and 22% for scaling back concessions on family trusts, 59% and 16% for “tax reform to help make buying a first home easier for younger people”. A question on the revised stage three tax cuts found 52% supportive and 14% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

929 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. The word “foreign” could have been replaced by “non-Australian citizen with no right to remain in Australia who have recently been released from immigration detention which they had been placed in after being released from jail having been sentenced for serious crimes and serving their sentence but have no current likelihood of deportation as would normally occur(but that may change in the future) but the High Court said they had to be released because they were not likely to be deported any time soon”.

  2. I’m not sure what your point is, but such nakedly vicious racism from a major party politician would have been unthinkable a couple of decades ago. I very strongly suspect it was cooked up in Dutton’s office and the task of publishing it farmed out to a woman so they could deflect to accusations of misogyny when it got the very response it was designed to provoke.

  3. “I would have dropped the “useless.” ”

    In context of the upcoming byelection, i concede that would have been appropriate.

    As a parliamentarian, in terms of actual contributions to good policy and governance, i think useless would be an appropriate, even mild term when applied to Sussssssan.

    Is she a “good soldier of the party” ? I would at best describe as a Susssssan consistently unpleasant creature of a despicable opposition.

    Hmmmm …all that said she probably has more brains than Cash??

  4. Just seen the Ley tweet. Wtf.

    Dunkley is pretty Anglo compared to Melbourne as a whole, but it’s no Wide Bay. This is only going to exacerbate the removal of Liberals from greater Melbourne.

  5. “I very strongly suspect it was cooked up in Dutton’s office ….”

    Probable. And with this being the last QT of the session (last opportunity to say things under privilege?) if they wanted to use this to exploit race / fear ahead of the byelection they had to move quickly.

    But they were wrong. In the world of two or three decades ago when ministerial / parliamentary responsibility actual meant something they would have been on the news tonight apologizing.

    At best there will be some kind of apology in some obscure forum after Dunkley ….. see… me the irrational optomist. 🙂

  6. I see the ABC are going to have a crack at Cranbrook. Apparently they have found some boys who suffered bullying. Bullying is unacceptable behaviour. It shouldn’t happen, but it does in schools and workplaces and community groups and families and everywhere in society. Could and should Cranbrook have managed the bullying better? Absolutely. Does this mean Cranbrook is terrible? No.

    Is this really the best use of the limited resources of the ABC? If you like class warfare it’s probably a yes. For everyone else, no – there are far bigger fish to fry.

  7. nadia88 says:
    “…………..I’ve also said on the Dunkley blog that if the ALP 2PP is 52% or lower when the count stops on Saturday (approx 10.30pm) , that the ALP may lose the seat {Reason: There is a staggering amount of postals coming through, currently sitting at 19.3% of all votes, and I suspect these won’t be counted until Sunday or possibly Monday 4-Mar, 8AM – correct me if I’m wrong someone. I believe postals generally favour the LNP 57-43}. ………”
    Postal vote patterns at by elections are not directly comparable with those at general elections, precisely because of the much higher proportion of postal voters. They include not only the normal pool of postal voters, but an even larger number of people who normally vote absentee, pre-poll or on the day.
    I’d expect the final voting pattern of postal voters in the by-election to be closer to that of pre-poll and on the day voters than occurs in a general election.

  8. “The non-misogynistic denigration of Conservative female politicians continues.”

    Fubar, i suspect you have somewhat below par written comprehension skills.

    I made disparaging remarks regarding those two politicians because they are both, essentially, lowlife small minded and nasty but, obviously not very bright, opportunists. All of which seems to be a significant part of current Liberal pre-selection criteria as applied to any gender. 🙁

  9. Talking about Cranbrook reminds me of Eminem’s movie 8 Mile:

    But I know something about you
    You went to Cranbrook, that’s a private school
    What’s the matter, dawg? You embarrassed?
    This guy’s a gangster? His real name’s Clarence
    And Clarence lives at home with both parents
    And Clarence’ parents have a real good marriage
    This guy don’t wanna battle, he’s shook
    ‘Cause ain’t no such things as halfway crooks
    He’s scared to death, he’s scared to look
    At his fucking yearbook; fuck Cranbrook!

  10. “Why don’t they promote the advantages of small Government, low taxes for businesses and the wealthy, a minimal social safety net, private delivery of health and education services, user pays and open slather for the rich and powerful? How the “invisible hand” will sort everything out? Don’t they think they can do it?”
    Hard to do that when we had 10 years of evidence it does fuck all for the common man.

    Peter Dutton would gift Gina Reinhardt an S3 Roll Back for an extra $4500 a year to add to her dragon hoard of obscene wealth.

    Peter Dutton would then have his hand in the pocket of every working Australian whenever they had the misfortunate to need to see a doctor with a revival of Abbott’s GP Tax.

    “The non-misogynistic denigration of Conservative female politicians continues.”
    Easy way to stop being rightly denigrated for being a conservative politician, is to stop being a conservative politician.”

    Ley conjured up a tweet that could just as easily come out of the mouth of the Australian Neo-Nazi movement or the West Midlands Tories of England in the 1960’s. You can’t even call it a dogwhistle, it was sheer unadulterated racism.

  11. Boerwar at 5.27 pm

    The key para in the Guardian article you linked is this, the penultimate one:

    ‘Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said tensions in Transnistria were dangerous for the region. The problem “is not a new one”, he said, adding that the “threat of Russian intervention or at least some provocation there is something permanent”.’

    The last phrase does not imply any increased Russian threat to Moldova, just a continuous background concern.

    It would be impossible, in the current situation of Putin’s war, for Russia to resupply any forces it sent to Transdniestria, certainly not by sea and most improbably by air. Apart from that Russia is pre-occupied with defending the SE Ukrainian territory it has occupied.

    Although Transdniestria is the location of a frozen conflict with many Russian mafia links, its future may be dependent on the outcome of Putin’s war, in the sense that an opportunity for Moldova to regain the territory lost 30 years ago could exist depending on that outcome.

    The potential weakness of Russian control in the region is shown by the domination of Russian in the education system, and by calls from the puppet leader to join with Russia. That shows even the internal dynamic in the territory may not favour continued Russian control and a perpetuation of mafia-based corruption.

    Geography remains decisive in war. Russia withdrew from Kherson, which is a long way east of Transdniestria. Russia is unlikely to be able to reoccupy Kherson.

    For background see:


  12. Pueo at 10.31 pm, nadia88 at 11.33 pm

    Obviously, “Advance’s tactics in Dunkley herald a new, nastier brand of politics”, but the nasty party, as Richard Ackland used to call it, is not always tactically astute.

    Did you see the poor driver of one of the RW propaganda trucks interviewed on 7.30? By his assessment (and he has been driving the slogans around every day just because he needs the money), most responses have been negative. He said very few were positive.

    Really, how effective is a billboard truck in the digital age? It’s hardly insidious, just a waste of petrol and an ugly irritant. In Gilmore at the last election there was at least one such truck rambling around for Constance. No strict correlation between propaganda and outcome.

    Good point re postals Nadia, but note that in 2022 the Labor vote on postals was only 2.4% lower than the overall vote after prefs. Note that not all postal applications are returned. Current return rate to Wed was 12.1% of enrolment. That may creep up to 16% by the end. If so, that would be a drop of about 2% since 2022, when about 18% of votes were postals.

    Note the drop in pre-poll voting on Tue and Wed, relative to 2022. See:


    If that flat pre-poll trend continues on Thur and Fri, it is in line with limited engagement.

    Jeff Kennett claimed that apathy is another factor helping the Libs, but logic escapes him.

  13. Obviously, “Advance’s tactics in Dunkley herald a new, nastier brand of politics”, but the nasty party, as Richard Ackland used to call it, is not always tactically astute.

    Indeed, I thought the Liberals were on to a winner in farming out the grubby tactics to Advance and taking the high road in their own communications, and said as much on the ABC’s AM this morning. So the Sussan Ley tweet is something of a puzzle to me. As for mobile billboards, I do recall the ones showing Xi Jinping casting a vote for Labor being paraded through the streets of Cottesloe in 2022 (and similar efforts from Advance in Warringah in 2019), and having an almost palpable sense of Kate Chaney racking up her margin.

  14. William at 12.45 am

    How many voters in Dunkley are so ignorant that they don’t understand that the Advance billboards are Lib propaganda in drag? Not that many. Former Palmer voters yes, others no.

    By comparison, Get Up has some independence, e.g. by giving voters a sheet with the policy positions of respective parties on key issues. Get Up relies mostly on volunteers. Clearly the billboard truck driver was in it for the small wage he is getting, despite all the abuse he got.

    The mobile billboard device seems less effective even than the Japanese loud-hailer trucks. It is not much more effective than Russian propaganda banners in Kherson = not at all.

  15. Rainman at 10.01 pm

    “An unemployed person in Australia lives on $749.20 a fortnight.
    According to the Australian Council of Social Service, they’re living well below the poverty line.”

    Well put. The unemployment benefit in Australia is the lowest of any OECD country except for Greece, whose currency and economy is controlled from Frankfurt.

    Why does this situation persist? Because the broadest recommendation from Commissioner Holmes in her Robodebt reprt, about an urgent paradigm shift away from punishing people on welfare, has not been respected.

    While NZ under Ardern leapfrogged over Australia in treatment of welfare recipients, the national-led government there is returning to institutionalised harassment of beneficiaries, as those on welfare are called there. There is faked-up anxiety about the nature and extent of the welfare attacks looming in NZ, but the reality will be bad enough. See:


    The real cuts are at odds with government-supported research on what works and doesn’t.

    “Research from MSD [relevant ministry] said there was little evidence that sanctions were an effective tool for getting people into work faster. Charities, anti-poverty organisations and the Children’s Commission have criticised them being imposed on parents, saying it ultimately harms children.”


  16. 51-49 Alp, thanks Nadia!
    I just think that Australia is just as hard a place to live , if not harder, since the 2022 election. I voted for the alp then, if that matters. Voters, particularly ones not too involved in politics, will want to remind the government of that fact. We’ll find out soon enough ! Thanks for your positive approach, as well !

  17. You started it Nadia 88!

    The whole discussion regarding C@T!

    Got me into trouble as well and gave the County and WB a great opportunity to jump in!

    WB apologies to you but nada Been There!

  18. What’s the world coming to?

    Russia levelling communities, Israel levelling communities, Iran arming and abetting destructive agents.

    Wasn’t this supposed to end after the war to end all wars?

    What sort of a civilisation do we have, that destruction is the answer?

    Follow history!


  19. William Bowe says Thursday, February 29, 2024 at 1:58 pm

    Hi peeps — don’t forget to give generously, or even ungenerously, to the PB donation drive. The results so far have been unspectacular at best, and I feel I deserve at least something if only for having to negotiate the Electoral Commission of Queensland’s horrifying XML results feed.

    Thanks for this site. I’ve had a search down the back of the couch and found some change to pitch in.

  20. Thanks bc, and to all others like you. Crying poor is undignified, but it does the trick — this did not end up being my worst month post-Crikey, as I earlier intimated it might be.

  21. In the process of appeasing Dutton, we are knocking on the doors of illiberalism.
    Unless Albanese government comes out severely condemning Sussssan Ley illiberal Xweet, it will be a downward slide for ALP.

  22. nadia88: “Oliver has said 58-42 ALP (Final tally)”

    No, that weren’t me! Someone else. (Tell ‘em they’re dreamin’!)

    I’m a long way from Frankston, with no local insights to inform speculation on the by-election outcomes. And anyway, by-elections are notoriously volatile and unpredictable.

    If I were to presume to venture an armchair guesstimate, maybe a narrow Labor retain. Something like your estimate of 51.5, nadia.

    As for the primaries: as I noted in a past post, this time around UAP and PHON are not running, but Vic Socialists are. So, fewer options for voters’ first preference on the right flank, but an alternative to Labor on the left flank.

    All other things being equal, Labor could bleed a few percent to the Socialists, while many of the 8% who voted UAP or PHON last time might revert to the Liberals.

    So there’s a prospect of a gain of a few percent in the Liberals’ primary vote, and a drop of a few percent in Labor’s vote, *for no other reason than the choice if alternative candidates* this time, compared to last time.

    That fact won’t, of course, deter the Liberals and their media megaphones from claiming a vote of confidence from any primaries swing.

    BTW, love your work, nadia. Please persist with the psephology.

  23. BK @ 12.02pm
    I believe that the Australia Test Team has both Marnus & Head problems.
    Both need to be replaced, next summer, by capable and competent batters.

  24. Released (supposed) Refugees.
    The Government and the Opposition should have had a plan A to deal with the, then pending, High Court determination.
    Obviously, neither party had a plan A or B or C.
    The Government, upon the High Court decision, should have released the alleged, refugees by taken them all to the nearest airport and placed them on the first flights connecting to their country of origin.
    The usual refugee advocates would have whined and moaned – but the overwhelming majority of Australians would have responded with a ‘Good Riddance’ response.
    Alternatively, they could have been released to Christmas Island (being an Australian Territory) before being sent back home.
    Every offence, which any of these 149 persons commit, is a negative for the government and plays straight into the CLP playbook.
    I and everyone on this site well know the release wasn’t done by the government, but mandated by the High Court of Australia but a large majority of voting Australians aren’t particularly concerned with the legalities of this case.

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