Newspoll aside, it’s been a week of soft polling for Labor (see also the previous post on the Dunkley by-election), including their weakest result this term from Essential Research. With the undecided component down a point to 4%, it finds the Coalition up a point to 35% and Labor down one to 30%, respectively their best and worst results this term, with the Greens down one to 13% and One Nation steady on 7%. The Coalition also leads on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure for the first time, up two to 48% with Labor down three to 47%.
The monthly leadership ratings nonetheless find Anthony Albanese up a point on approval to 42% and steady on disapproval at 47%, while Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 44%. A number of further questions inquiry into the leaders’ and parties’ performance in different policy areas. A monthly national mood question finds a one-point increase in right direction to 33% and steady on wrong track to 49%.
High awareness was recorded for last week’s asylum seeker arrivals in Western Australia and the release of immigration detainees (66% and 61% respectively), and finds 59% of the view that the government is taking too long to put those released back into detention and 51% of a view that the government is “losing control of its borders”. Sixty-two per cent supported criminalising doxxing (described in the question as “the public release of personally identifiable data (e.g. phone numbers, addresses, social media details) with malicious intent”) with only 19% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1145.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition drawing level on two-party preferred for the first time since December, erasing Labor’s 52.5-47.5 from last week, with Labor down two-and-a-half points on the primary vote to 31.5%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1682.
Nine Newspapers have published further results from the Resolve Strategic poll, including one finding 36% in favour of nuclear energy, 23% opposed and 27% “open to the government investigating its use”. On the revised state three tax cuts, 52% were in favour and 14% opposed, with 37% considering the $146,400 threshold for greater and lesser tax cuts under the stage three changes to be about right, 14% too low and 17% too high.
A series of questions on other potential changes found 40% supportive and 26% opposed to reducing negative gearing concessions, 36% and 24% for reducing capital gains tax concessions, 28% and 29% for reducing franking credits, 39% and 22% for scaling back concessions on family trusts, 59% and 16% for “tax reform to help make buying a first home easier for younger people”. A question on the revised stage three tax cuts found 52% supportive and 14% opposed.
Pied Piper.says:
Thursday, February 29, 2024 at 10:01 pm
It’s sad labor has trashed millions of renters with them bringing in over 500,000 people a year,another million to come hey labor!
Also Victoria police are corrupt and incompetent the state Labor government needs a royal commission into the rabble.
=================================================
They are not perfect but the people of Victoria are very grateful for what they did during the Covid period. Facing down and protecting the public from the diseased and deranged Cookers. Who tried to take over our streets with their anti-science and borderline fascist rhetoric.
Entropy: “Nobody wants the LNP and their Big Australia rhetoric. Alright, nearly no one. ”
The first politician I heard use the term “Big Australia” was Rudd. I don’t think Albo has ever used the term precisely, but he has said words to similar effect on occasions.
But Big Australia has been bi-partisan policy since Howard’s time, with the brief exception of Gillard making some noises about developing a “population policy” in the 2010 election.
(The story goes that, after she made the deal with the independents, some of her staff were walking around talking about creating a new government department called the Department of Sustainability, Population, Environment and Water. Until a bureaucrat pointed out that the acronym would be “SPEW.” Then it was changed to “Sustainability, Environment, Population, Water and Communities.” Nobody ever worked out what the Communities bit was meant to do, but it was clear that the “Population” bit was meant to suggest the exercise of some restraint in relation to the annual migrant intake. But it never happened.)
If you look at the data on the annual migrant intake, Howard increased it significantly near the end of his Prime Ministership, and then Rudd increased it a fair bit more, to a level at which it more or less stayed through until COVID struck and migration stopped altogether for a while. Under Albo, the intake has bounced back higher than ever, although there is some pent-up demand in this and it should stabilise at a lower level over the next couple of years.
But both the major parties love it. The Libs have long used the strategy of being tough on asylum seekers to appease the anti-immigration sentiment of their base without being forced to do anything to the general intake. In his autobiography, John Menadue claims that this was his idea back when he was secretary of the Immigration department in the Fraser era, although the tough approach really only got going under Hawke.
Rossmcg: “As Amy at The Guardian points out regularly in her coverage of question time, every day all around the country people who have served their sentences are let out of jail.”
I keep reading this argument on PB, but it is a total red herring. These people have no right to remain in the country and were only in detention because there is nowhere that they can be deported within a specified timeframe. The High Court didn’t rule that they should be released because it considered that they had “served their time.” In fact, the Court explicitly ruled that, if changed circumstances overseas brought the possibility of a realistic timeframe for their deportation, then the government would be permitted to detain them once more.
FUBAR: “I found the decision of the High Court far more compelling”
A jury of Pell’s peers heard weeks of evidence and found him guilty.
The High Court then found that the jury could not have found him guilty on the evidence they heard.
It’s a funny old world.
OK, that’s enough from me on the fraught issue of immigration policy for one night. Good night to all. I’d pour myself a nightcap of Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area Durif or PV if I had a bottle of either in my house.
meher babasays:
Thursday, February 29, 2024 at 10:12 pm
==========================================
So you argue this policy is bi-partisan, fair enough. So why do call me out for claiming it is a LNP policy and not the numerous posts of “Pied Piper” claiming it is Labor policy?. If what you say is true we are equally wrong and deserve equally to be called out for it.
Speaking of hookers…
Sex as medical therapy, available through Medicare on a referral from a GP.
A lot of the world’s problems (including some of the disputes on the Bludger, I suspect) would be solved if people could just have one rubbed out on demand for their physical and mental health, without shame or stigma.
I’m not claiming it as an original policy idea, I’m sure someone somewhere must have thought of it.
“a proper basis for their vicious, partisan – and as it turns out, completely fucking wrong – political stunting. ”
So, has anyone on the Liberal front bench publicly apologized?? 🙂
Entropy: “So you argue this policy is bi-partisan, fair enough. So why do call me out for claiming it is a LNP policy and not the numerous posts of “Pied Piper” claiming it is Labor policy?. If what you say is true we are equally wrong and deserve equally to be called out for it.”
Yep, that’s fair. I wasn’t really calling you out, just pointing out that the term “Big Australia” is fundamentally a Labor one. The Libs like the idea of a big Australia just as much as Labor does: it’s great for real estate agents, developers, builders, bankers and a myriad of other Liberal-supporting business people.
But they prefer to say as little as possible publicly about the size of the migrant intake, as they know that some of their base are uncomfortable about the social changes the current high rates of migration bring.
Rewi: “Sex as medical therapy, available through Medicare on a referral from a GP.”
Terrific. The continuing exploitation of women’s bodies by men, fully subsidised by the taxpayer.
Probably not such a good idea, is it?
Anyway, how large is the incel constituency?
“ OK, that’s enough from me on the fraught issue of immigration policy for one night. Good night to all. I’d pour myself a nightcap of Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area Durif or PV if I had a bottle of either in my house.”
In Vino Veritas.
”So, has anyone on the Liberal front bench publicly apologized??”
What, since the founding of the “Liberal” Party in 1944? Never!
nath says:
“Fubar, are you going through some life crisis that is driving you to argue with every single person here?”
‘Fucked Up Beyond All Recognition’ is not an ironically self-aware nom de plume.
I didn’t limit it to services provided by women to men.
Expand your horizons.
Another unwanted foreign import.
Advance’s tactics in Dunkley herald a new, nastier brand of politics
https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/02/29/advance-dunkley-by-election-nasty-politics/
imaccasays:
Thursday, February 29, 2024 at 10:25 pm
“a proper basis for their vicious, partisan – and as it turns out, completely fucking wrong – political stunting. ”
So, has anyone on the Liberal front bench publicly apologized??
=================================================
No in fact they have doubled down. Susssan’s office has just sent more SMS messsages to Dunkley still making these outrageous and false claims. I hope it comes back to haunt them like their equally abhorrent “African gangs” campaign did last time.
Dunkley Breaking news in the oz polling by the libs shows they are close to an upset.
”
Confessionssays:
Thursday, February 29, 2024 at 8:59 pm
A former immigration detainee has had sex offence charges against him dropped, after being wrongly identified as being involved in two assaults in Melbourne.
Police charged a 44-year-old man from Richmond, in Melbourne’s east, with sexual assault, stalking and two counts of unlawful assault after being interviewed by specialist detectives on Wednesday.
He did not apply for bail when he faced the Melbourne Magistrates’ Court earlier on Thursday, but reappeared later in the afternoon when he was told the charges would be withdrawn and he would be released from custody.
At a press conference on Thursday evening, Commander Mark Galliot said police discovered their error in the late afternoon and were “sincerely sorry”.
He said the mistake had occurred in part because the wrongly arrested man and the other man were “very much alike in their appearance,” including their “race, age, height
clothing”.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-29/ex-detainee-charged-with-sex-offences-high-court/103527968
Why racial profiling carries such inherent risks. No apology however from Dutton and Co who went full steam ahead on tagging this man as a dangerous criminal.
”
From the article: He said the mistake had occurred in part because the wrongly arrested man and the other man were “very much alike in their appearance,” including their “race, age, height
clothing”.
All Asians look same. 🙂
I would have thought Dutton’s years on the force would have given him a unique basis for not simply accepting police pronouncements at face value, particularly when it comes to people from ethnic minorities.
If anyone in the Federal Liberal partyroom should know better, it’s him.
Rewi: “Expand your horizons.”
What proportion of the sex industry does not involve the provision of services by women to men? I reckon it would be 5-10 per cent, and that it would be largely males providing services to other males.
The history of the sex industry is largely one of the exploitation of women, including female children. There’s no way of getting rid of it but, no matter how some of its advocates try to spruik it up, it’s generally a pretty unpleasant business IMO.
40 years ago sexual therapy was available through the Repatriation System in certain conditions. There was an association of therapeutic sexual surrogates – but I have not heard of them for many years
Mundo says:
Thursday, February 29, 2024 at 9:51 pm
I wonder how many voters in Dunkley know the Vic police got the wrong person.
And how many got Crooked Susssan’s text message.
Don’t know about texts but Sussan has upped the ante here
“Don’t know about texts but Sussan has upped the ante here”
Speaking of Gold Coast investments:
Police allegedly bust Gold Coast-based ‘boiler room’ investment fraud ring responsible for scamming 300 people
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-29/police-charge-five-gold-coast-boiler-room-investment-fraud-ring/103526504
Pied pipersays:
Thursday, February 29, 2024 at 10:31 pm
Dunkley Breaking news in the oz polling by the libs shows they are close to an upset.
=====================================================
I assume Samantha Maiden wasn’t one to report it this time.
William Bowesays:
Wednesday, February 28, 2024 at 10:38 pm
The messages of support C@t gets from her clique of loyalists whenever I try to pull her into line are unhelpful to me…
=================================
Apologies WB, for getting caught up in it. I just didn’t like that comment made by the other poster regarding C@t’s family, especially in light that she has had family tragedies in the past. That comment would’ve hurt her. C@t and I rarely cross paths on the blog too. She comments on everything, whereas I stay “fairly” strictly to the polls. I’ve been mainly on the Dunkley blog but had a scroll back on this main blog a short time ago. Anyway, apologies for getting caught up in it. Look forward to the Dunkley count on Sat.
The Coalition have no good story to tell. Nine years of chaos, corruption and incompetence of recent memory. Their policies are crap. They can’t tell the punters what they’re going to cut and what they’re going to sell off. So they need a poplace that’s afraid and angry. Fear, anger and greed. That’s all they’ve got.
After the ASIO spy boss spilled the beans, a giant game of Cluedo broke out in the halls of democracy
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-29/giant-game-of-cluedo-breaks-out-in-halls-of-democracy/103529058
Sam was busy driving if you know what I mean…..
Noted – no YouGov Federal poll today.
Thought it was due today, Feb-29 (publishing every 3 weeks with the last on Feb-8).
Link for YouGov is here.
https://au.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports
Should be any day now
Thanks Nadia – the lesson for me in this is to not allow discussion of people who are in the sin bin for either good or ill.
“I would have thought Dutton’s years on the force would have given him a unique basis for not simply accepting police pronouncements at face value, particularly when it comes to people from ethnic minorities.
“If anyone in the Federal Liberal partyroom should know better, it’s him.”
Yeah, but he’s not playing the game you assume he is.
Tricot says:
Thursday, February 29, 2024 at 9:57 pm
“ unbiased presentations”
That’s completely the opposite of what I have written on the subject. Private media companies can publish whatever they want within the law. The ABC has a legal requirement to be unbiased.
The responses on Xwitter to Susssssan Ley’s piece of appalling dog whistling are not supportive, although they are probably not from the demographics she’s after.
https://twitter.com/YaThinkN/status/1763076688127357316
Dunkley betting: Labor $1.33 Coalition $3.80.
Watching ABC news and they just played the segment on Susssssssan’s comments.
SNIP
Yah, the Libs are doing this on the assumption that its too close to the Dunkley byelection for people to realize its a beat up. And, they will probably get away with it. FFS, these are the people who pulled “death tax” out of their arses in 2019 and i have never seen an apology for that lie.
“ Another NSW judge has launched a scathing critique of the state’s Director of Public Prosecutions for bringing “meritless” rape accusations before the court, urging judges not to “remain silent” on cases with no reasonable prospects of a conviction.
District Court judge Peter Whitford, in a costs order delivered on Tuesday, said that “time and time again” sexual assault proceedings are brought before the courts by the Office of the Director of Public Prosecution “without apparent regard to whether there might be reasonable prospects of securing a conviction.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/nsw-district-court-judge-peter-whitford-launches-attack-on-meritless-rape-cases/news-story/9b2ed3b158ed849689c0841f7ada7a2b
That’s five Judges that have now had a crack at the DPP for this. Five.
Goodnight all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUg10CPelvo
Susan and Angus are better performers in opposition than they were in gov.
Humphrey appleby would have used the word “courageous “to describe what Susan did.
Gomer Pyle is useless at both.
FUBAR….Think you missed my point…Question is not the “right” of owners to have their outlets say what they like within the law, but that Channel 9 got the report plain wrong. In my view, what little credibility the likes of Channel 9 may have has sunk even lower. They can broadcast whatever crap they like as far as I am concerned but if they get the facts wrong , they are wrong and should be called on it. Poor and slovenly reporting ………………..
Tricot says:
Thursday, February 29, 2024 at 11:22 pm
“ Channel 9 got the report plain wrong.”
No, they didn’t. They reported the facts given to them by the Victorian Police.
I don’t generally allow politicians to be described in such terms, but I’m pointedly making an exception in this case.
Fubar, I am not familiar with any of those cases you cite from a non-credible source but I am assuming that this is all somehow Labor’s fault. The DPP obviously decided that the cases have merit. Rape is a very serious crime, maybe the DPP thought they should get their day in court.
By the way, why does the Coalition rely on stoking fear and anger to win votes. Why do they rely so much on racist dog-whistling? And although in a friendly media environment they can get away with it, why do they have to lie?
Why don’t they promote their real policies? Why don’t they promote the advantages of small Government, low taxes for businesses and the wealthy, a minimal social safety net, private delivery of health and education services, user pays and open slather for the rich and powerful? How the “invisible hand” will sort everything out? Don’t they think they can do it?
Okay, that’s unworthy. I’ve chopped the comment. But you really should be greatly more exercised about Sussan Ley’s repulsive tweet than you are about what some who-cares rando says on an internet forum.
You have a point, Fubar.
I would have dropped the “useless.”
I think she’s probably being reasonably effective in her aims.
“people who are in the sin bin for either good or ill”
People can be binned for either good or ill?
William Bowe, Lawful Neutral.
No probs at all WB.
PB’ers- what is the consensus for Saturday night pls?
Will Albo win or will his gov’t drop down a seat to a knife’s edge.
I’ve put on the table a Final (not on the night, but the end result) ALP of 51.5 to 48.5 2PP, with the LNP topping the Primaries. I’ve also said on the Dunkley blog that if the ALP 2PP is 52% or lower when the count stops on Saturday (approx 10.30pm) , that the ALP may lose the seat {Reason: There is a staggering amount of postals coming through, currently sitting at 19.3% of all votes, and I suspect these won’t be counted until Sunday or possibly Monday 4-Mar, 8AM – correct me if I’m wrong someone. I believe postals generally favour the LNP 57-43}. Might be a very tight night, especially if the ALP 2pp is less than 52% when the count stops Sat night.
Dr.D has said 55-45 ALP (Final tally)
Oliver has said 58-42 ALP (Final tally)
Pied Piper has posted a link suggesting the LNP may win. This follows up the mid week mini you-gov.
Pied Piper: Stop dilly dallying around too! Type your expected 2PP numbers on your keyboard, and press enter. You skirt around issues too much – post your expected 2PP numbers pls.
🙁 Apologies for the language.
Do we file that under if you are going to call a politician something nasty, bring the data to prove it…
Oooooh Nadia I like it when you get Bolshie !
Victoria has been tone deaf to racial or immigration issues in recent times when it comes to vote influence.
Labor wins sadly no idea how much.
Perhaps it’s more a hate the sin, tolerate the sinner, thing.