Newspoll aside, it’s been a week of soft polling for Labor (see also the previous post on the Dunkley by-election), including their weakest result this term from Essential Research. With the undecided component down a point to 4%, it finds the Coalition up a point to 35% and Labor down one to 30%, respectively their best and worst results this term, with the Greens down one to 13% and One Nation steady on 7%. The Coalition also leads on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure for the first time, up two to 48% with Labor down three to 47%.
The monthly leadership ratings nonetheless find Anthony Albanese up a point on approval to 42% and steady on disapproval at 47%, while Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 44%. A number of further questions inquiry into the leaders’ and parties’ performance in different policy areas. A monthly national mood question finds a one-point increase in right direction to 33% and steady on wrong track to 49%.
High awareness was recorded for last week’s asylum seeker arrivals in Western Australia and the release of immigration detainees (66% and 61% respectively), and finds 59% of the view that the government is taking too long to put those released back into detention and 51% of a view that the government is “losing control of its borders”. Sixty-two per cent supported criminalising doxxing (described in the question as “the public release of personally identifiable data (e.g. phone numbers, addresses, social media details) with malicious intent”) with only 19% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1145.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition drawing level on two-party preferred for the first time since December, erasing Labor’s 52.5-47.5 from last week, with Labor down two-and-a-half points on the primary vote to 31.5%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1682.
Nine Newspapers have published further results from the Resolve Strategic poll, including one finding 36% in favour of nuclear energy, 23% opposed and 27% “open to the government investigating its use”. On the revised state three tax cuts, 52% were in favour and 14% opposed, with 37% considering the $146,400 threshold for greater and lesser tax cuts under the stage three changes to be about right, 14% too low and 17% too high.
A series of questions on other potential changes found 40% supportive and 26% opposed to reducing negative gearing concessions, 36% and 24% for reducing capital gains tax concessions, 28% and 29% for reducing franking credits, 39% and 22% for scaling back concessions on family trusts, 59% and 16% for “tax reform to help make buying a first home easier for younger people”. A question on the revised stage three tax cuts found 52% supportive and 14% opposed.
“The monthly leadership ratings nonetheless find Anthony Albanese up a point on approval to 42% and steady on disapproval at 47%, while Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 44%.”
So, Albo net -5, Dutton net -4.
What to make of that?
‘… 59% of the view that the government is taking too long to put those released back into detention and 51% of a view that the government is “losing control of its borders” …’
Please be upstanding for the national anthem:
‘For those who’ve come across the seas
We’ve boundless plains to share;
With courage let us all combine
To Advance Australia Fair.’
Still 32 degrees in Adelaide after a very hot night.
I wonder if 59% of people are in favour of tax changes to make it harder for existing house owners to buy a second or more house. Unless that occurs then assisting first home buyers is a mirage.
The current tax system is loaded in favour of multiple property ownership in numerous ways. Reaping what has been sown.
i dont think labor are considering making any changis to negative gearing any more
Nice to hear William’s voice on Radio National’s AM this morning, opining on Advance Australia’s role wrt the Liberals.
Albo called a press conference at 8.30pm last night:
‘It was a time he conceded was “unusual”, after most journalists in Parliament House had gone home for the evening, long past the 6pm TV news bulletins and newspaper print deadlines had passed.
‘To a room of only four journalists … Albanese praised the passage of his government’s tax plan. He claimed there was a “great divide in Australian politics” between the government and opposition, alleging “Peter Dutton wants people to work longer for less”.’
(Guardian blog)
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Tony Wright pops in with a satirical take on Morrison’s final parliamentary speech, It’s headlined, “Scotty from Sunday school lays it on thick in final sermon”. A good read.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scotty-from-sunday-school-lays-it-on-thick-in-final-sermon-20240227-p5f87d.html
As part of his efforts to prove he could keep taxes lower than Labor, Morrison avoided fixing anything much. Now everywhere Albo and his ministers look, they find problems, writes Ross Gittins who says, “Morrison handed Albo a cowpat sandwich. Now it’s time to pay for it”. He uses education as an example.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/morrison-handed-albo-a-cowpat-sandwich-now-it-s-time-to-pay-for-it-20240227-p5f84w.html
Paul Kelly – “Scott Morrison had no finer moment in politics than taking his departure on Tuesday. On display were the qualities that took him to the prime ministership – a personal life anchored in family and faith, a spirit of combat that left “nothing on the field”, an attachment to community in the Shire and his ambitions in economics and national security.” There goes my breakfast!
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/history-will-look-kindly-on-morrisons-legacy-flaws-and-all/news-story/37d33a82fd753c250ca94babd0d1b9a8?amp=
Scott Morrison delivered a magnificent farewell speech in parliament, full of emotion, splendid gratitude, love of family, faith and country, plenty of substance and a brilliant little riff, requested by his daughters, on Taylor Swift album titles. Anthony Albanese’s response was equally generous and gracious, writes Greg Sheridan.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/ups-and-downs-but-morrison-can-hold-his-head-high/news-story/bccb40bd8958dcf3394fc53b938f6bd7?amp=
“Morrison says faith gives him ability to be honest on his failings – he just doesn’t have any”, says Paul Karp.
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2024/feb/27/morrison-says-faith-gives-him-ability-to-be-honest-on-his-failings-he-just-doesnt-have-any
Michelle Grattan says that Labor is ‘highly unlikely’ to contest the Cook byelection, as Morrison bows out with ‘plenty of scars’.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-labor-highly-unlikely-to-contest-the-cook-byelection-as-morrison-bows-out-with-plenty-of-scars-224504
An article in The Australian has proven once again how out of touch the Murdoch press is with the real threat of climate change, writes Steve Bishop.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/news-corp-continues-to-endorse-climate-change-nonsense,18369
If it wasn’t already clear, the writing is now well and truly on the wall for the fossil car makers: Just a week after BYD launched its $US15,000 “Corolla killer” and with the world’s largest EV battery maker recently announcing it’s on track to cut battery costs in half this year, new research suggests the decline in EV prices may by happening faster than thought.
https://johnmenadue.com/electric-vehicles-will-crush-fossil-cars-on-price-as-lithium-and-battery-prices-fall/
The latest poll results are a wake-up call for anyone ready to declare Peter Dutton politically obsolete, says Peter Lewis.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2024/feb/27/australia-politics-opinion-polls-preferred-party-pm-peter-dutton-anthony-albanese
Dutton regularly proclaims what he opposes, but what he will do in terms of new policies mostly remains a mystery or alternatively will not work, writes Michael Keating who wonders what Dutton actually stands for,
https://johnmenadue.com/what-does-dutton-stand-for/
Crispin Hull is more than unhappy about what is being seen in Dunkley with respect to lies and disinformation. Of Advance he says, “In short, a selfish campaign to dupe voters into voting against their own interests by an organisation whose very name is a misnomer. It does not want to advance Australia; it wants to regress it.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8535180/misleading-dunkley-byelection-political-ads-show-need-for-change/?cs=14258
Paul Bongiorno thinks that the Reserve Bank’s war on inflation could sink Labor in Dunkley.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2024/02/27/paul-bongiorno-inflation-dunkley
The Labor Government needs to consider alternatives to solving the housing crisis other than abolishing negative gearing, which has failed previously. Frank Jordan reports.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/how-labor-can-avoid-the-negative-gearing-trap,18368
Director of Public Prosecutions Kerri Judd has further inflamed tensions with Victoria’s judiciary by lodging a formal complaint against a second judge.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-s-most-senior-prosecutor-makes-complaint-against-second-judge-20240227-p5f88x.html
Former NSW MP Daryl Maguire had an emotional hold over then-premier Gladys Berejiklian and was a “special kind of serial pest” who influenced her position on funding grants worth tens of millions of dollars, a court has heard. Samantha Hutchinson fills us in bout yesterday’s NSW Court of Appeal hearing.
https://www.afr.com/politics/maguire-a-special-kind-of-pest-who-had-a-hold-over-berejiklian-20240227-p5f877
Coles chief executive Leah Weckert says the supermarket giant must be “sharper” in trying to win over budget-conscious consumers amid an emerging trend of more customers shopping around to get a better deal on their groceries.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/australians-are-more-willing-to-shop-around-and-coles-is-taking-note-20240227-p5f826.html
The immigration minister, Andrew Giles, released a Saudi businessman on a visa that did not include an ankle bracelet and curfew conditions, despite him being identified as likely affected by the high court decision on indefinite detention.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/28/immigration-minister-released-friend-of-bob-hawke-from-detention-on-visa-that-did-not-include-ankle-bracelet-or-curfew
An army of arsonists fuelling the illicit tobacco trade fires is being paid a pittance as their gang bosses favour cheap and easy, but powerful retribution, report Marta Pascual Juanola and Chris Vedelago. $500 is all it takes, apparently.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/organised-criminals-recruit-arsonists-to-torch-tobacco-shops-for-just-500-20240213-p5f4fx.html
A case that could reshape the way the major social media companies manage their content has reached the US Supreme Court this week, with competing arguments over who will decide the rules governing what should, or shouldn’t, appear online, writes Stephen Bartholomeusz.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/the-case-that-could-change-the-internet-20240227-p5f824.html
Has Donald Trump peaked? Bruce Wolpe takes a closer look at his numbers.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/has-donald-trump-peaked-let-s-take-a-closer-look-at-his-numbers-20240227-p5f84y.html
If Trump wins, he’ll be a vessel for the most regressive figures in US politics, predicts Katrina vanden Heuvel who says a Trump presidency would usher in dark consortium dedicated to stripping millions of Americans of their freedoms.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/27/trump-second-term-cpac-democracy-threat-extremism
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
David Rowe
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
John Shakespeare
Simon Letch
Alan Moir
Matt Davidson
Spooner never stops!
From the US
Ven, from previous thread.
Traditional Catholic belief is that life (or more probably the soul) is formed at conception. Abortion, IVF and even IUDs and the morning after pill are all in the same boat.
I suspect more reasonable believers downplay this because, frankly, the decision of the Alabama Supreme Court looks pretty wacked to the mainstream.
The Liberal preselection for Cook is heating up.
It looks like the female candidate is not acceptable to the boys club. And the upstart popular local is going to be shafted in favour of the ex-McKinsey guy.
Labor sources said the party had little to gain from contesting a safe Liberal seat held by 12.5 per cent.
There are three serious candidates in Monday night’s Liberal preselection for the seat: councillor Carmelo Pesce, former candidate Simon Kennedy, and Veteran Family Advocate Commissioner Gwen Cherne. Kennedy and Pesce are the two frontrunners.
Pesce, the mayor of Sutherland Shire, has the support of most moderates and has long been considered the favourite to replace Morrison. But the entrance of Kennedy, backed by most of the Right faction and some moderates and a previous candidate in Bennelong, has upended the contest and attracted support because he is seen as a high-quality candidate.
Pesce, who lives locally, unlike Kennedy, was subjected to a 90-minute grilling from senior party figures tasked with vetting preselection candidates.
This masthead reported in January that Pesce was fending off conflict-of-interest claims in relation to a council proposal to rezone parts of north Cronulla for high-density residential apartments, where he owns four properties in a prime development site.
There is no suggestion Pesce used his influence for personal gain – he declared a pecuniary interest at that council meeting and said at the time he had no knowledge of what was discussed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/great-privilege-morrison-delivers-final-speech-to-parliament-20240227-p5f85c.html
The Australian 28/02
Health insurers fear Labor is delaying a decision on how much to increase premiums in order to avoid a cost-of-living backlash before the crucial by-election on Saturday.
_____________________
There goes my tax cut.
Seems like only yesterday sprocket was breathlessly telling us Albo would have four terms “if he wanted them”, now hes sadly trying to whip up excitement about a Shire preselection.
Where did it all go wrong Sprocket?
Any thoughts on the next masterstroke? It’s seem like an excellent time to launch a republic referendum campaign – to realise the platform , surely ?
#weatheronPB
The air is scrubbed clean.
The heat and damp have left us.
And the bright sky shines.
Albo’s a party animal…
Lars Von Trier
Anthony Albanese will likely leave on his own accordance after 3 – 4 terms in government
The federal lib/nats are in a mess , not even 2 years in opposition , the Dutton led lib/nats have lost 3 seats
And according to opinion polls average taking very little ground / if any ground off the federal labor government
The pats on the back from everyone inside the Canberra bubble for ScoMo just makes you shake your head .
Totes, the Australian people always get it right – and the verdict is neither of the majors.
sprocket_: “And the upstart popular local is going to be shafted in favour of the ex-McKinsey guy.”
It’s deja vu all over again in Cook.
In the previous preselection contest, the popular local was shafted in favour of the ex-Tourism guy.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, February 28, 2024 at 8:26 am
Totes, the Australian people always get it right – and the verdict is neither of the majors.
___________
Facts say otherwise. Nevermind 🙂
Edit:spelling
I’m not sure why ScoMo didn’t reference this guy in his parting epistle?
“The cereal category has always been quite affordable, and it tends to be a great destination when consumers are under pressure,” Pilnick said amid a discussion about high grocery prices. “If you think about the cost of cereal for a family versus what they might otherwise do, that’s going to be much more affordable.”
“ That message has not actually landed that well with everyone who has heard it.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/27/kelloggs-ceo-cereal-for-dinner
Oliver Sutton says:
Wednesday, February 28, 2024 at 8:28 am
sprocket_: “And the upstart popular local is going to be shafted in favour of the ex-McKinsey guy.”
It’s deja vu all over again in Cook.
In the previous preselection contest, the popular local was shafted in favour of the ex-Tourism guy.
_________
To be fair, they picked right. They picked a future Prime Minister. Shame about the narcissism, but you can’t have everything.
Thanks, BK.
I am including the following link because it bears on a discussion in yesterday’s Bludger.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/27/a-lot-of-hurt-and-anger-how-the-queer-community-feels-let-down-by-nsw-police
Albos press conference at 8.30 pm eastern meant was 5.30pm western time.His feedback from WA cabinet visit last week would not of been good.
Awareness of the boat getting in would of been close to 100 percent in WA.
Should have sent the defence Minister last week who was in town up north on a customs boat presser.
The two immigration ministers are tainted by the numbers debate getting into oz etc
Since McGowan walked labors Fed gov authority has collapsed in WA mind you the IR laws have meant stokes everyday is running against labor via the West Australian and seven nationally.
Mind you State wise Stokes wants his ex employee Basil in the state leadership opposition role nice main story hatchet job in todays West Australian on current leader.
The 2 fabulists make you reach for the bucket…
Paul Kelly – “Scott Morrison had no finer moment in politics than taking his departure on Tuesday.
Greg Sheridan Scott Morrison delivered a magnificent farewell speech in parliament, full of emotion, splendid gratitude, love of family, faith and country,
Scotty from Marketing finishes off with the usual Swifty populist shit .. in both cases marketing trumps talent.
While David Rowe sees reality..
Uncertainty?
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/news-corp-continues-to-endorse-climate-change-nonsense,18369
Of course there is uncertainty. For myself, I one believed we were smart enough to ignore the deniers and survive as a species.
Now, I am uncertain.
The Climate Change Arsonists, oops, Activists will be up and about in Victoria today.
Anthony Albanese turns 61 on the weekend. He’s young enough to serve four terms, at the end of which he would be 70-71.
Of course the next election could go either way. As to subsequent elections, who can know? Then there are “events”, bad polls and restive colleagues.
The last PM to retire at a time of his own choosing was Menzies back in 1966. He was 71. Each PM since then has either been turfed by their party, turfed by the voters, turfed by the GG or chose a bad day to go for a swim.
There was speculation that John Howard planned to retire when he turned 70, midway through his 5th term as PM, had he won in 2007.
Gosh, who could have predicted this … ?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-28/global-warming-effect-on-extreme-weather-events/103471564
I mean, apart from tens of thousands of peer reviewed scientific articles, thousands of scientific bodies as well as individual climate scientists, hundreds of countries … and the IPCC …
But what could they possibly know that Chris Kenny doesn’t?
It is a fact that across our media outlets, courtesy of Murdoch, Costello and Stokes there is party political bias entrenched against Labor.
However, every now and then
“Morrison handed Albanese a cowpat sandwich. Now it is time to pay for it”
The appended extract
“As part of efforts to prove he could keep taxes lower than Labor, Morrison avoided fixing anything much. Now everywhere Albanese and his ministers look, they find problems”
This is a contribution of Gittens, along with Maley the only contributors to MSM of any substance.
And what Gittens contributes is the fact.
Evidence of this is Question Time in the Lower House, where the competence of the Labor Ministry is on full display – including referencing what they have been inherited with across their portfolios as one after another mess.
Starting with a High Court ruling, no less.
This government is not just the prime minister, a very capable leader, but about the talent he has at his disposal in the Chamber.
The Opposition query what they see as the “headline” of the day, cost of living, that criminals have been released from detention and that popular vehicles are going to cost $15,000- more by 2028.
Over 18 months, the USA, the barometer for the Globe, has lifted interest rates from ZERO to 5% as it seeks to dampen inflation, noting inflation is abating courtesy of Central Bank actions.
However the central causes of the inflation being supply chain interruptions married to the accrual of unprecedented levels of household savings so elevated demand along with the military conflicts where those conflicts impact energy and agriculture supply and pricing remain.
These factors are driving inflation as is the cost of BORROWING (specifically).
Outlooks that the actions of Central Banks will result in recession have not come to fruition because of the resiliance of economies, the robustness of employment, that wages are actually increasing in advance of inflation and that governments have not responded contrary to Central Bank actions, fueling inflation.
The very fact that Global Indices (including principally Japan with its entrenched population rate declines unable to be addressed causing the problems it is causing) are at or near record highs, Markets being forward looking, is its own commentary (noting the raft of data due for release in the USA this week and which may dampen or further fuel).
Then you get to High Court rulings (so should a government act to subvert any decision by the High Court of Australia and, if so, why have a Court system instead relying on government decisions absolutely?)
And vehicle emission standards for vehicles in Australia lagging almost every other Nation.
But this is what the Opposition prosecute, day after day.
What that prosecution by the Opposition very clearly identifies is not only the opinion of Gittens as published but that the Opposition is bereft of any talent of any description.
But, Gittens and Maley apart, they have their media.
Look at any Minister approaching the Dispatch Box and compare.
Look at the performance of the Speaker.
“Now everywhere Albanese and his ministers look, they find problems”
And those problems are being addressed and corrected.
Including by careful and calibrated responses taking to account the very best of advice.
This is the political commentary of our time.
Not what the media per se attempt to present.
In the lead up to the next election this government will have a story to tell – and a very deserving story.
Ditto Biden by and large.
Not so much the UK government.
House Speaker Mike Johnson was confronted from all sides on government funding and Ukraine aid during a White House meeting with President Biden and fellow congressional leaders today.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he and all other attendees, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, pressed Johnson on Ukraine aid as well.
“The meeting on Ukraine was one of the most intense I’ve ever encountered in my many meetings in the Oval Office,” Schumer said.
Axios
Things that happened when Labor took office and had nothing to do with them coming into power.
Rate increases
Inflation
And Medicare being eroded to the point, that bulk billing is rare.
Admittedly money has been put into Medicare by Albo and co. This has stopped the bleeding. But it is nowhere near enough.
BK
The USA and the world is at an inflection point.
Putin has been emboldened by the hold he has over the GOP.
Who would ever have imagined that Putin is being supported ahead of Ukraine and its allies in the west. Cos ultimately that is what is happening here.
Traitors one and all.
Here we go again @ #31 Wednesday, February 28th, 2024 – 9:00 am
This made me laugh. I thought the bar in parliament had been closed. Turns out it had just been lowered.
Gee I sure hope this Lamarre-Condon guy pleads guilty. Looking at the Sydney Morning Herald this morning I’m blowed if I can see how he’s going to get a fair trial. And Sydney’s gay community has already delivered its guilty verdict, and thrown the NSW Police as accessories before the fact.
I don’t think this is at all right. It reminds me of past criminal cases in which there has been a media frenzy, most notably the Chamberlains. Highly irresponsible journalism IMO.
One has to wonder why Trump and the majority of the GOP together with the billionaire class are supporting Putin and Russia?
The West Australian is getting all in a tizz about senior Liberals’ contact with Brian Burke.
Turns out, though, that Kerry’s poster boy Basil Zempilas sought Burke’s counsel before announcing his candidacy for preselection in Churchlands.
If Mettam’s leadership is in crisis as a result of this, surely a person who hasn’t been endorsed yet ought to be considered unelectable? How does the West square this circle, holding the Lord Mayor, 7 Sport commentator and West columnist to account according to the same standard it applies to anyone else foolish enough to have anything to do with Burke?
After all, according to the West it’s huge news for a person to have worked with… not actually Burke, but a bloke Burke knows.
meher baba
The journalism may be irresponsible, but he is guilty. He wouldn’t give up the location of where he dumped the bodies, until he finally did. He had an accomplice who didn’t realise at the time he was dumping bodies.
Meher baba
This guy’s behaviour even before becoming a police officer should have rung alarm bells for the police force.
He was already well known publicly due to his stalking of celebrities.
NSW police have set up an inquiry.
I have no sympathy for this guy. He had an obsession with Jesse Baird which resulted in his death and that of his friend, who he only started dating.
The middle to end of March is shaping up as a difficult time for T****.
Firstly, March 18 is when I expect NYAG James to apply for authority to seize and start the fire-sale of the guy’s assets. (That date is a Monday, 1 day after the penalties will have been due.) I’ve no experience or knowledge of the process, but it would seem like a paperwork formality. By March 25 I can imagine the sherif will be knocking on his door.
Secondly, March 25 is also when his criminal trial starts, for falsely documenting secret payments to a porn star. This will be the first time he’s faced a criminal trial, presumably sitting “in the dock”. That’s going to be a whole new feeling for him.
Oops my comment regarding USA and Ukraine funding. was in response to sprocket.
Late Riser
I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump gets funding to pay his debts from foreign sources. Cough cough…….
I don’t care for the British royal family, but the speculation around Kate Middleton is getting really weird.
Oakeshott Country @ #9 Wednesday, February 28th, 2024 – 7:50 am
Traditional Catholic (RPPS) belief is that the earth is the centre of the universe, that the sun orbits the earth, that some guy walked on water, that raping little boys is ok as long as you are a priest, that a married woman was a virgin, and so on, and on and on. And that anyone who questioned any of these beliefs, or who criticised “the church” should be executed in the most painful way possible.
What are “more reasonable believers”, other than irrational dupes?
Traditional Catholic (RPPS) belief is that the earth is the centre of the universe, that the sun orbits the earth, that some guy walked on water
_______________
I think some believe that there are no Blue Whales 2000 km near Portland.
Victoria @ #43 Wednesday, February 28th, 2024 – 8:19 am
I was reading in a partisan news site (Palmer Reports) that courts can decide if they want to accept someone else’s money. These penalties are meant to penalise T****.
But IDK.
Late riser
Nothing Trump does, or tries to do. Surprises me.
The radical extremists pretending there’s ‘nothing to see here’ are likely to be heavily invested in the fossil fuel trade.
Selling out their grandchildren’s lives comes easy to them.