New polling from the past few days:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down half), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706.
• Two recent issue salience polls – the SECNewgate Mood of the Nation report and JWS Research’s True Issues survey – continue to find cost of living well in the lead as the issue of greatest concern, but with housing affordability and interest rates narrowing the gap. Immigration and border security, while still well down the lists, are up in both surveys, by five points to 13% in the case of JWS Research. The latter’s “performance index” scores across various issues record “population growth” as the issue on which the government has lost the most skin over the past year. The SECNewgate poll was conducted February 1 to 5 from a sample of 1588, while JWS Research was from February 8 to 11 and a sample of 1000.
• DemosAU found 51% supportive and 32% opposed to the tax cut changes in a poll of 1154 respondents conducted from February 1 to 13, while the SECNewgate poll had it at 60% and 21%. The latter also recorded improvement since October on national direction (with the right-wrong direction split narrowing from 37-63 to 44-56) and predictions for the economy, particularly for the “in twelve months” time frame (from 25% better and 48% worse to 39% better and 36% worse).
Also:
• Samantha Hutchinson of the Financial Review reports a field of five has emerged for the looming federal by-election in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook, including Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce and McKinsey partner Simon Kennedy, who have generally been reckoned the front-runners, and the likewise previously noted Gwen Cherne, Veteran Family Advocate commissioner. The other two are Alex Cooke, head of institutional and private banking at ANZ, and Benjamin Britton, a former United Australia Party candidate and presumably a long shot.
• Western Australian Labor Senator Louise Pratt announced earlier this week she will not contest the next election. Dylan Caporn of The West Australian reports the party’s state secretary, Ellie Whiteaker, has “emerged as the front runner” after confirming her interest in replacing her on the ticket. Whiteaker is a former staffer to Pratt and shares her association with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union.
• Two significant Liberal Party events will be held this weekend: the preselection for the Perth seat of Curtin, which the party lost to teal independent Kate Chaney in 2022, between Matt Moran and Tom White; and a meeting of the New South Wales state council that among things will vote on a motion to expel Mitchell MP Alex Hawke.
• Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports the Liberal preselection for Forrest, previously thought to be a lock for former Senator Ben Small, will in fact be a contest involving Bunbury councillor Gabi Ghasseb, who won an internal party appeal against his exclusion for submitting his nomination 20 minutes after the deadline (and who has also nominated for state upper house preselection). However, Small “remains the overwhelming favourite”. Incumbent Nola Marino recently announced she would not seek another term.
The Protestant counter action in NI was to make life so unpleasant for the Catholics that their emigration rate would always be higher. This was very effective for the first 50 years of the northern entity.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 1:44 pm
The Protestant counter action in NI was to make life so unpleasant for the Catholics that their emigration rate would always be higher. This was very effective for the first 50 years of the northern entity.
======================================================
Pretty sure both sides played that game.
Yabba
Thanks. That confirms my earlier comments that nobody on the LNP side is game to bet on an LNP win in Dunkley. Their internal polling must be lousy.
What’s the big idea?
You just know you want to go:
https://tripleconference.com/?fbclid=IwAR19IxqNhiSBRJTKR5i1lE-kjJFx8_5Q_AT6fKIchc36dD71BgVz1GLP3jw
Frankston forecast for Saturday: 14-23. Partly cloudy. Rain not likely.
It seems Marles is beginning to transition the ADF into a light mobile force increasingly made up of autonomous war/patrol ships, subs and aircraft.
Pretty much in line with what the Greens party has been long campaigning for.
One can only hope that as time goes on the absurdity of AUKUS is realised and many billions of taxpayers money can be redirected to more sensible areas of expenditure and investment.
RD
Highly unlikely at this point.
Wow
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 1:59 pm
It seems Marles is beginning to transition the ADF into a light mobile force increasingly made up of autonomous war/patrol ships, subs and aircraft.
Pretty much in line with what the Greens party has been long campaigning for.
__________
You certainly have a unique perspective, Rex 🙂
Trump running as pseudo incumbent only commands just under 60% of Republican vote in S Carolina.
That is ominous for Republicans : how many of those other 40% stay home at the election(or even vote Biden, like one of them vox-popped by the Guardian)?
Entropy at 1:46
That’s a bit of facile both-sidesism. Only one side had command of the state, eg the RUC in NI pre Good Friday agreement. The Ascendancy had much more opportunity to make the Catlicks life unpleasant
The first 50 years of the northern entity were 1922 – 72.
Until Stormont was suspended in 73, it was very much an apartheid state.
Only in the USA would they vote for a corrupt, fraudulent ,criminal nutter as Trump. They need to take a long look themselves and how the world sees them as a laughing stock. The biggest mental asylum in the world is well and truly still alive.
Interesting to hear what traditional Lib voters make of this approach from Patterson and Dutton.
”
Grant_ExLibrissays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 7:47 am
HH thanks for the world news roundup.
Incredibly depressing reading.
The Republic of Gilead sorry I meant the USA is becoming more and more divided and truly is a society that is mentally and physically broken.
”
Grant
I thought it is worth repeat posting
“Vensays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 1:44 am
This is more than alarming. This is really really scary shit
CPAC welcomes Republicans to the end of democracy
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/23/2225345/-CPAC-welcomes-Republicans-to-the-end-of-democracy?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web
”
It’s time to retire the phrase “saying the quiet part out loud.” Because Republicans have canned the whole idea of a quiet part. Whether it’s throwing in their lot with Vladimir Putin or treating “The Handmaid’s Tale” as a guidebook for life, They are saying all the parts loudly.
At this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference, the loud parts include an open disdain for the whole idea of democracy. That includes open support for Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, bringing in two other authoritarians: Argentine President Javier Milei and Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, who describes himself as “the world’s coolest dictator.” Because, as far as Republicans are concerned, dictators are cool now. And democracy is very definitely not.
Nothing made that clearer than right-wing activist Jack Posobiec, who spoke on a panel hosted by conservative strategist Steve Bannon. “Welcome to the end of democracy,” said Posobiec. “We are here to overthrow it completely. We didn’t get all the way there on Jan. 6, but we will endeavor to get rid of it and replace it with this right here.”
Posobiec held up a fist. Bannon said, “Amen.”
The speech not only treats Jan. 6 as a dry run for a violent coup to overthrow the American government, it also took place at a CPAC saturated with the idea that Jan. 6 was noble and the people involved were heroes … unless, of course, the whole thing was a setup and the people who charged the Capitol were stooges.”
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 2:27 pm
The first 50 years of the northern entity were 1922 – 72.
Until Stormont was suspended in 73, it was very much an apartheid state.
=======================================================
How was it south of the border for protestants?.Though from what i see when either side leaves NI they go to Glasgow and either become Celtic or Rangers members. Depending on what side of the conflict they were from.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 1:32 pm
”
Another post worth repeating
“Vensays:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 11:59 pm
“Derek Thompson/The Atlantic:
The Americans Who Need Chaos
They’re embracing nihilism and upending politics.
The researchers came up with a term to describe the motivation behind these all-purpose conspiracy mongers. They called it the “need for chaos,” which they defined as “a mindset to gain status” by destroying the established order. In their study, nearly a third of respondents demonstrated a need for chaos, Petersen said. And for about 5 percent of voters, old-fashioned party allegiances to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party melted away and were replaced by a desire to see the entire political elite destroyed—even without a plan to build something better in the ashes.
“These
individuals are not idealists seeking to tear down the established order so that they can build a better society for everyone,” the authors wrote in their conclusion. “Rather, they indiscriminately share hostile political rumors as a way to unleash chaos and mobilize individuals against the established order that fails to accord them the respect that they feel they personally deserve.” To sum up their worldview, Petersen quoted a famous line from the film The Dark Knight: “Some men just want to watch the world burn.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/02/need-for-chaos-politicsl-science-concept/677536/?gift=63Gh33MHIm6zIngFjhtdLVfHCrRTfwK32Mo2ApdoQKw&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
”
Quote from the film The Dark Knight: “Some men just want to watch the world burn.”
That is the reason the most Republicans and Tories in Anglosphere world are behaving the way they are behaving.
In Australia, Advance Australia comes to mind where “they indiscriminately share hostile political rumors as a way to unleash chaos and mobilize individuals against the established order that fails to accord them the respect that they feel they personally deserve”
I get the feeling that you do not have a lot of knowledge of Northern Ireland.
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 1:46 pm
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 1:44 pm
The Protestant counter action in NI was to make life so unpleasant for the Catholics that their emigration rate would always be higher. This was very effective for the first 50 years of the northern entity.
======================================================
Pretty sure both sides played that game.
——————————————————————————-
NO
‘Out of a population of only 1.5 million, the death toll from the Troubles is estimated at 3,700, accounting for Protestant and Catholic, civilian and political, adult and children alike. What is especially alarming is that a comparatively large number of these deaths involved, either directly or indirectly, the participation and endorsement of state agents acting under the authority of the Royal Ulster Constabulary (or RUC, the police force in Northern Ireland), the British Army, and other British security forces suc h as the Special Air Services (SAS).14
Emergency and other legislation allowed deaths at the hands of the state to go uninvestigated and largely unpunished under the guise of national security interests. Even today, the British government denies accountability for the loss of the lives of citizens killed by state agents, even those killed who were unarmed.15 Injustice and the lack of state accountability has taken an enormous psychological toll on the families of victims of human rights abuses and, to date, crimes by the British government and security forces have largely gone unresolved in Northern Ireland’s courts.’
Source: https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=njihr
”
sprocket_says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 8:17 am
Donald Trump in his CPAC speech says what the US is in for if Biden is re-elected.
Huge if true!
Here are all the things Trump said would happen if Biden is re-elected: Medicare will “collapse.” Social Security will “collapse.” Health care in general will “collapse.” So, too, will public education. Millions of manufacturing jobs will be “choked off into extinction.” The U.S. economy will be “starved of energy” and there will be “constant blackouts.” The Islamist militant group Hamas will “terrorize our streets.” There will be a third world war and America will lose it. America itself will face “obliteration.”
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02/24/us/south-carolina-republican-primary
”
Biggest projection ever! That covers everything.
So, according to Trump although Those things did not happen in Biden first term they will happen in his second term. Is there a better explanation for “Go figure”.
Rainmansays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 2:43 pm
=================================================
I was replying to OC post. The sides being referred to was Catholics and Protestants there. If you want to count the British military as separate third side that is fine by me. It has nothing to do with my post though.
subgeometersays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 2:23 pm
Entropy at 1:46
That’s a bit of facile both-sidesism. Only one side had command of the state, eg the RUC in NI pre Good Friday agreement. The Ascendancy had much more opportunity to make the Catlicks life unpleasant
========================================================
My post was about Catholics and Protestants both making it unpleasant for each other. So i was more referring to both sides paramilitaries. Then to British Government policy bias.
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 2:52 pm
Rainmansays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 2:43 pm
=================================================
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 2:52 pm
Rainmansays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 2:43 pm
=================================================
I was replying to OC post. The sides being referred to was Catholics and Protestants there. If you want to count the British military as separate third side that is fine by me. It has nothing to do with my post though.
——————————————————————————
It has everything to do with your post.
The British military was not a “seperate third side.” It was, along with the Royal Ulster Constabulary, the Protestant tool of Catholic oppression in a Protestant apartheid state.
As Oakeshott Country Posted:
‘I get the feeling that you do not have a lot of knowledge of Northern Ireland.’
Socrates 1.40pm
“If the result is that bad then Dutton will be in trouble. But there are no substantial moderates left among the LNP leadership.
So if there is change, it will only be to another LNP far right figure. I think the pentecostals faction is damaged so I can’t see them having the numbers, but another member of the catholic far right looks likely to me.”
According to some, the only known is that Bill Shorten is the instigator of the result.
True to form, our Albo.
“PM skirts question on watching Taylor Swift and Katy Perry perform in same week
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, appeared on Channel Seven’s Sunrise this morning, where he was asked about having seen Katy Perry on Saturday night and Taylor Swift in the same week.
Perry performed for a private show for 200 guests at an event organised by the children of late packaging magnate Richard Pratt. Hosted at the family’s Melbourne Mansion, the prime minister skirted the question..”
The British army was an occupation force in NI because the local protestants wanted them there.
Rainmansays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 3:05 pm
‘Out of a population of only 1.5 million, the death toll from the Troubles is estimated at 3,700, accounting for Protestant and Catholic”
==========================================
Think what you like but it was you that posted a general death toll including both Catholics and Protestants lives lost, not me. Suggesting that both were victims in this.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 3:15 pm
The British army was an occupation force in NI because the local protestants wanted them there.
===================================================
That is my understanding too. I have no idea the point in Rainmans post at 2.43 pm was. Even though it doesn’t negate the fact that both Protestants and Catholics also made each others lives hell there by both sides use of very nasty paramilitaries
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 3:15 pm
Rainmansays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 3:05 pm
‘Out of a population of only 1.5 million, the death toll from the Troubles is estimated at 3,700, accounting for Protestant and Catholic”
==========================================
Think what you like but it was you that posted a general death toll including both Catholics and Protestants lives lost, not me. Suggesting that both were victims in this.
——————— ———————— ————————
So, did you read what I posted and actually walk away with the impression that the British military and the Royal Ulster Constabulary were killing Protestants as well as Catholics in the Six Counties?
steve davissays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 2:29 pm
“Only in the USA would they vote for a corrupt, fraudulent ,criminal nutter as Trump. They need to take a long look themselves and how the world sees them as a laughing stock. The biggest mental asylum in the world is well and truly still alive.”
That Trump is alive and kicking, with a real chance does cause one to pause and think.
That Dutton and the LNP causes a similar reaction considering the entrenched, blatant and we’ll publicized corruption that has been the modus operandi of LNP governments since Howard’s people overboard, airport sell offs and tax evasion inclusion and integration.
If enough people benefit, enough think they’ll benefit and others are stupid, then the LNP is on a winner!
None of this has anything to do with my post which dealt with the period 1922 – 1969 (three years before the 50th anniversary but the date of the start of the troubles when the “B” Specials of the RUC rioted and burnt out the Bogside)
The point was that the higher Catholic birth rate was compensated by a higher emigration rate and the proportion of the two communities was relatively static. In the 50 years of dismantling the apartheid state the Catholic population has overtaken the Protestant.
Brandis on Morrison:
I have several friends in the States that ate now wanting to emigrate to Australia as they don’t feel safe or feel any future for their birth country
One said… the USA will be in a civil est within 12-18 months
Kat Wong on Dunkley by-election.
https://citynews.com.au/2024/tough-fight-by-election-campaign-enters-final-week/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 3:27 pm
None of this has anything to do with my post which dealt with the period 1922 – 1969 (three years before the 50th anniversary but the date of the start of the troubles when the “B” Specials of the RUC rioted and burnt out the Bogside)
The point was that the higher Catholic birth rate was compensated by a higher emigration rate and the proportion of the two communities was relatively static. In the 50 years of dismantling the apartheid state the Catholic population has overtaken the Protestant.
======================================================
True and you are correct that i was ignorant of what the 50 year period you did specify included. I was unaware that NI had existed as a entity for so long. So everything i refer to is basically from the period known as “The Troubles”. So about the last 30 years of the 20th Century.
Which i now realise you were not referring to. I have no idea how Protestant/Catholic community relations were in the period you were referring too though. In either NI or the Republic. So basically my original comment was probably historically inaccurate.
Brandis doing an Antony on Morrison?
Confessions says Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 12:51 pm
We have similar laws in WA. I don’t support them because they may well mean a person wrongly convicted might never be released.
steve davis says Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 2:29 pm
Italy elected Berlusconi multiple times. Brazil elected Bolsonaro. Argentina elected Milei. The UK elected Johnston. Australia elected Abbott and Morrison.
I saw some odds on Dunkley early on but not recently. I gather they were blowing out for Libs to $5+ before they stopped – for what that’s worth – from having been about $2.30 early on.
Rainmansays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 3:21 pm
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 3:15 pm
Rainmansays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 3:05 pm
‘Out of a population of only 1.5 million, the death toll from the Troubles is estimated at 3,700, accounting for Protestant and Catholic”
==========================================
Think what you like but it was you that posted a general death toll including both Catholics and Protestants lives lost, not me. Suggesting that both were victims in this.
——————— ———————— ————————
So, did you read what I posted and actually walk away with the impression that the British military and the Royal Ulster Constabulary were killing Protestants as well as Catholics in the Six Counties.
==============================================
So why post 3700 casualty figure?.
You do know that figure includes 705 deaths of British Military. Also 162 deaths of Ulster paramilitary plus 368 deaths of Republican paramilitary, the rest civilians. I assume from both religious groupings.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles
Which category should that Brandis article be entered in:
Best fiction or Best satire?
My parents who were to fly to Gilead i’m sorry the USA have pulled out at the last minute tonight at Tullamarine airport.
Yes they have wasted $35,000 in flights and so forth. However they do not want to go to a place where they may not be able to fly back.
America is truly fucked and a broken society
Thanks Entropy – the first 50 years of the northern entity were an interesting time. Once the state was established, the IRA had a few feeble attempts at insurrection but received little popular support despite significant discrimination from the government and industry.
The one thing that Stormont could not control was the increasing opportunities for tertiary education after 1945. By the late 60s there was a young, growing, educated and underemployed Catholic population. In 1968 the Civil Rights Movement inspired by Martin Luther King began to protest but all protests were disrupted with a brutal response by Stormont and the RUC. In 1969 it all blew up and the rest is history.
The blame lies with both Westminster and Dublin who knew what was happening but chose to ignore rather than antagonise the unionists, while things remained relatively quiet.
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 3:54 pm
I’m done talking about this topic with you. With all due respect, I think that you blundered into a topic that you don’t know much about, but one that I do and have strong opinions about. And then, you just doubled down.
I hope we can move on and have congenial conversations on a different topic in future posts.
goll says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 3:23 pm
Your list isn’t comprehensive enough.
Draft dodger
Coward
Racist
Rapist
Bankrupt
Fraudster
Insurrectionist
Golf cheat
Liar
Putin enabler
All round psycho narcissist
……
The evangelisation of the NRL continues a pace.
The Panffers lost the world club championship after a disputed try given to Wigan. Brian To’O, who is one of the leaders of the prayer circle, has said that Jack Wardle who scored the try has “sinned” by lying about the ball’s grounding. (At least he didn’t say anything about homosexuality)
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sport/nrl/lying-is-a-sin-penrith-star-s-dig-at-wigan-rival-over-controversial-try-20240225-p5f7ma.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed
“The blame lies with both Westminster and Dublin who knew what was happening but chose to ignore rather than antagonise the unionists, while things remained relatively quiet.”
====================================================
Maybe that is where Morrison learnt his management style?.
“Morrison has a habit of allowing problems to become a crises before mishandling them” – Niki Savva
Ahh I see the AFL is running away from responsibility for their players health and safety.
AFL executives make their fortune through performance bonuses, but squib the oh&s of their human assets.
Much like the fossil fuel cartel and their parliamentary operatives, when you think about it.
Re the earlier discussion on the Federal leaderships, I think that both those of the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader are safe until the Federal election. The Dunkley result will probably have little impact.