The Courier-Mail has a uComms poll of Queensland state voting intention showing a tie on two-party preferred, compared with a 51-49 lead for the LNP in a similar poll just before Christmas, shortly after Steven Miles succeeded Annastacia Palaszczuk as Premier. This is the first Queensland poll not to show the LNP in front since December 2022, although its leads tended to be fairly modest. After allocating a forced follow-up question for the 12.5% initially undecided, the primary votes come out at 34.2% for Labor (down 0.2%), 37.3% for the LNP (down 0.7%), 12.2% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 7.7% for One Nation (up 0.4%) and 3.9% for Katter’s Australian Party (down 0.1%).
David Crisafulli nonetheless records a narrow 51-49 over Miles on a forced response preferred premier question, in from 52.2-47.8 last time. Steven Miles is rated positively by 44.2% (up from 42.7%), neutrally by 25.2% (down from 27.6%) and negatively by 25.2% (down from 27.6%). Crisafulli is 41.7% for positive (up from 37.8%), 31.2% for neutral (up from 30.2%) and 18.7% for negative (down from 22.8%). The sample for the poll was 1743, with field work dates not provided in the Courier-Mail report.
Further news related to the state election to be held on October 26:
• Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath announced yesterday she would retire at the election, creating a vacancy in her northern Brisbane seat of Redcliffe, which she holds on a margin of 6.1%. Kerri-Anne Dooley, founding director of a home care nursing firm, will make her fifth attempt to win the seat for the LNP. The Australian reports Corinne Mulholland, former federal candidate for Petrie and now in-house lobbyist for Star casinos, is the favoured candidate of Steven Miles, “but several sources say she is reluctant to stand”.
• The southern Brisbane seat of Mansfield, held for Labor by Corrine McMillan on a margin of 6.8%, will be contested for the LNP by Pinky Singh, Indian-born public relations consultant, Order of Australia medal recipient and candidate for McConnel in 2020.
• James Ashby, high-profile adviser to Pauline Hanson, will be One Nation’s candidate in Keppel, which the party came within 3.1% of winning on 2017. Brittany Lauga holds the seat for Labor with a margin of 5.6% over the LNP.
‘But even before 1956, ancient variants of the joke were meant to deflate the condescension of individuals who used the royal “we,” and the insulting presumption of people who assumed, for their own purposes, what they had no business assuming.’
The ‘condescension of individuals who used the royal “we”’? Talkin’ ‘bout you, Mammoth …
https://huntthedevil.wordpress.com/2015/05/08/what-do-you-mean-we-white-man/
@Oliver Sutton
Yeah, that’s right. And that particular inter-party tiff broke out into Federal politics with the “Joh for PM” nonsense in 1987.
While Joh Bjelke-Petersen seems mostly like a ridiculous clown from my point of view, since he was in power before I was born, reading up on him and his despicable government is sobering.
Kirksdarke, I was 15 when Joh became Premier (after the sudden death of Jack Pizzey).
And 18 when he declared a State of Emergency … to protect a Rugby match with the Apartheid-era South African team. (The New Zealanders might be the All Blacks, but the Springboks were definitely the all-whites.)
When 500 police charged 400 protesters opposite the Tower Mill Motel, I ‘ran through the jungle’ of Wickham Park and slid down the slope to the road below.
Others didn’t escape the police bashings. One was crash-tackled outside Trades Hall.
He later went on to become Premier for 9 years. And to preside at Joh’s State funeral.
What goes around comes around … sometimes.
This poll strikes me as ucomms creating a sample to match results of similar polls. It is also possible support for the ALP is collapsing but a 2pp result of 58/42 didn’t seem plausible so they adjusted variables to avoid creating concern remember see Kevin Bonham’s blog for more details on this. The average poll bludger commenter has a long track record of bias’ and can be closer described as cheer leaders for the left-wing people then impartial poll observers. The average responder seeming to sing at success of ALP in October but 50/50 should leave ALP wobbling considering the level of pork barrelling achieved by the ALP over the past 30 years.
I’m also loving the rewriting of history from outside observers. ALP has enjoyed almost uninterrupted electoral success since the early 90’s. Every problem in QLD is most definitely the ALP’s fault and the average voter is paying attention. My evidence, I point to the federal level for support of the ALP in QLD is laughable. The past two state elections being explained with Tim Nicholls being a Newman minister that made enemies in regional QLD. The covid-19 election where the ALP shut borders, there was no room for policy, it was a matter of who do you know, and Anna was more familiar than Deb. I will continue to point out that ONP voters continue to preference ALP ahead of LNP at a rate of 55/45.
Going forward I suspect this ALP government is heading towards 2012 level result in primary vote only to be buoyed by the greens on 2pp. The greens also being in disarray in QLD enjoying accidental success at the 2022 federal election but internally pulling at the seems(try and find 2 greens party members that agree on anything is my ongoing challenge atm). Council election results for the greens lord mayoral candidate will be one to watch.
The ALP have very definitely caused the following issues;
– Home invader epidemic resulting in assaults and murders. it isn’t fun to wake-up at night and find someone in your house with malicious intent.
– Youth crime epidemic resulting in murders.
– Failing health system(even more so in regional areas).
– Budget disaster (there are only so many times you can tax your way out of a deficit, ALP previously sold off assets). I point to QLD’s state debt vs GSP
– Olympics planning has left the government looking very incompetent.
– Number of state infrastructure projects that are desperately behind and woefully over budget, cross river rail being the most notable
– This one is just for the union member, falling safety standards in union worksites resulting in CFMEU protests (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-15/queensland-cfmeu-workers-protest-worksite-conditions/103470738) union being mobilised against Labor has very 2012 vibes to it.
-Steven Miles is unlikeable, to my great frustration this seems to drive votes in the wider public. I also think he leads a government full of terrible ideas and a terrible track record of do nothing and achieve even less.
The job of the opposition isn’t to propose policies this far out from an election, it is bad politics. I point at ALP’s election policy release window for their past elections when they were in opposition at elections across the country. Though to try and educate the ignorant the LNP have released policies, one of which was even adopted by the ALP, though it is hard to get credit for it when the local bully steals your work.
ALP continued decline of a primary vote across the country is good news for families and small business. Much like typewriters their time is coming to a close only to be championed by those who are equally obsolete.
“… a 2pp result of 58/42 didn’t seem plausible so they adjusted variables to avoid creating concern …”
The delusion is strong in this one.
“Home invader epidemic”
[citation needed]
“ALP continued decline of a primary vote across the country …”
BludgerTrack has Labor’s federal primary up 0.9% on last month and 0.1% since the election.
‘Continued decline’: please explain?
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/bludgertrack/
Astro Boy, you do realise that this is a psephology site, right?
‘ALP has enjoyed almost uninterrupted electoral success since the early 90’s. Every problem in QLD is most definitely the ALP’s fault and the average voter is paying attention.’
Siri, show me self-contradiction in consecutive sentences … 🙂
What an asinine load of tripe that is, Astro.
“Oh I don’t like the poll results so therefore I think the actual result is LNP government forever because aarghaphaaarghaah I just hate Labor so much and there’s no way any rational human could ever see anything good about them so the LNP will therefore rule for a thousand million years so there.”
The 2012 Queensland election disaster for Labor was predicted in advance by a number of polls, I remember that clearly because Murdoch’s toilet rags were keen to put them on the front page every time, yet they don’t seem to be doing that this time, curious as to why.
This really is a stinker for the Qld LNP. When Candoe won they had been way in front in the polls for several years.They brought in candoe to seal the deal but he turned out to be a turkey of American celebration proportions. He was ably supported by a cast of unusual outre characters many of whom are still there including Mr Crisifulli . The stories were so strange even the right wing courier couldn’t ignore them until big daddy Ruppert gave the editor his marching orders for being too small l liberal. Have Qlders forgotten? Not so sure looking at this poll.
Princeplanet: “Have Qlders forgotten?”
Yes, we remember … 😉
A response to a couple of criticisms;
– Poll herding is a phenomenon seen in the past 10 years. Pollsters haven’t solved for it.
– Google news stories for ‘youth crime home invasions qld’ enough articles from the past fortnight to understand the depth of the disaster.
– Labor primary trend over the past 5 years is a better sample size then the past 20 months.
– This place is bias as the labor party caucus, facts and evidence means little when sloganeering will discredit opponents. Looking at you Oliver
Wow what a pile of rot from astro !! Good onya mate ,maybe you should get your party to join the modern world rather than live in Disneyland
I’m just going to address a single point out of Astro’s rambling.
“I will continue to point out that ONP voters continue to preference ALP ahead of LNP at a rate of 55/45”
This is demonstrably false. I doubt there has been a single election where ALP was preferred by One Nation voters (individual seats, perhaps, but not statewide). Typically it is at least 60/40 in favour of LNP.
Being this wrong doesn’t invite me to pay credence to the rest of their words.
To be fair with David Crisafulli, he did actually lose his seat of Mundingburra in the 2015 election, immediately after the 2012 LNP landslide election, so unlike Deb Frecklington in 2020 and Tim Nicholls in 2017, he knows the humiliation involved in losing in such a manner, so he’s less likely to make mistakes like they did, and it’d be unwise to underestimate him this time around.
Oh this is glorious. 4000 years of Labor rule.
Keep digging Aspro smerf. Suffer in yer jocks.
Astro Boy:
“Poll herding is a phenomenon seen in the past 10 years. Pollsters haven’t solved for it.”
Poll herding was a phenomenon seen in the lead up to the 2019 election. But not before or since.
Kevin Bonham publishes his characteristically deep post-election analyses of pollster performance. Here’s part of his take on 2022:
‘Fortunately 2022 has not been a repeat. The fallout from 2019 saw a great increase in polling transparency, especially via the formation of the Australian Polling Council (though unfortunately not all pollsters have been on board with that) and also more diversity in polling approaches. No one poll has ended up nailing the remarkable results of this year’s election, but collectively, federal polling has bounced back and done well. This is especially so on two-party-preferred results, where a simple average of the 2PP figures released in the final polls is pretty much a bullseye. The primary vote results were a little less impressive.’
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/07/federal-election-2022-pollster.html
Astro Boy: ‘Google news stories for ‘youth crime home invasions qld’ enough articles from the past fortnight to understand the depth of the disaster.’
Ah, I see: anecdotal ‘evidence’ … from the Courier-Mail, no less.
Translation: ‘I don’t have any hard data to support my assertion, so I’ll resort to breathless tabloid story telling.’
Astro Boy (on a man’s errand):
‘Labor primary trend over the past 5 years is a better sample size then the past 20 months.’
Indeed. Ditto for the Liberal party, of. course:
Primary Vote:
2019 … 27.99%
2022 … 23.89%
🙂
https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-27966-NAT.htm
Edit: typo: 2022, not 2023.
Looks like we’re back to feelpinions courtesy of the Courier Fail.
Adda says:
‘I’m just going to address a single point out of Astro’s rambling.
‘“I will continue to point out that ONP voters continue to preference ALP ahead of LNP at a rate of 55/45”
‘This is demonstrably false. I doubt there has been a single election where ALP was preferred by One Nation voters (individual seats, perhaps, but not statewide). Typically it is at least 60/40 in favour of LNP.’
Absolutely, Adda.
At the 2022 election, PHON preferences split 64 – 36 to the Coalition.
Astro Boy has it arse-about (again!). Nevertheless, he “will continue to point out” his demonstrably false factoid.
Keep on digging that hole in the astroturf. 🙂
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseStateTppFlow-27966-NAT.htm
The thing is for a government to change the polls would normally be way worse for an incumbent government. Now I know things can change but the LNP were sitting in the high 50s in the polls for more than a year before 2012. The change was inevitable but right now these figures show it’s not inevitable. This could end up being another disappointment for LNP boosters nation wide. Maybe it’s just that the majority align with ALP values rather than the LNP no services, privatise everything, reduce taxes for the rich philosophy. The Media owned by the rich just doesn’t have much influence anymore. No wonder rich right wing people world wide are losing interest with democracy.
Keep in mind Ucomm is a Union backed or owned polling company.
Given it was 12 years ago so my memory might not be right about it, but was it the case that in the period of the 2009-2012 Bligh Labor government that they were seriously considering privatizing state assets?
If that is the case then that would confirm my theory that that’s pretty much the biggest thing that pisses Queensland voters off the most, at least at the state level.
Kirksdarke:
“… was it the case that in the period of the 2009-2012 Bligh Labor government that they were seriously considering privatizing state assets?”
You’re not wrong, Narelle.
Not only considering, if memory serves, but actually effecting. Bligh offered some mealy-mouthed platitudes along the lines of, ‘oh, we forget to mention these few’. And yes, Queenslanders were mighty pissed off — to the point where they actually (for once in a generation) elected an LNP government.
Who foolishly went down the same path — under the bullshit banner of ‘Smart Choices’ — and were rewarded by voters in the same way as the Bligh government.
@Oliver Sutton
Cheers for that info. Yeah, no wonder 2012 was such a disaster in that case.
It’s going to be a very noteworthy theme if Queensland voters at the state level still hold that amount of zeal to their state-owned assets, in the possible case of the LNP tipping over the line of majority government and being like “Yep, we’re going full Kennett here and nobody can stop us until 2028.” and what their reaction to that will be.
“… facts and evidence means little when sloganeering will discredit opponents. Looking at you Oliver.”
Priceless! 🙂
Go to the mirror, Astro Boy.
SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation poll (February 2024):
“Miles’ rise to Queensland’s top job appears to have improved the local mood, with a 10 percent lift in people feeling the state is heading in the right direction (44 percent up from 34 percent).
“There was also a significant improvement in State Government performance, albeit from a low base, with 36 percent feeling the Government under the new leadership is doing a good or better job – up from 27 percent last October.”
https://secnewgate.com.au/sec-newgate-mood-of-the-nation-february-2024/
^^^ See that preceding post, Astro Boy?
‘Facts and evidence’, you say? Your turn, now …
Projection is a right wing trait or tactic. Accuse the other person or side of thinking what you are thinking and planning to act like you would act in their circumstances. It’s a baffling thing but for a non right winger it’s a candid look into a different type of mindset.
But Murdoch’s Courier Mail pays uComm to conduct polling, so they don’t seem too concerned about who owns the company.
To all those posters who responded to Astro Boys absolute clanger of a right- wing post-with its dissembling, selective use of information and rank bias-thanks so much.
One has to wonder what ” inspires” posters like Boyo to come here with absolute crap.
Maybe he just pasted it from one of the Merdeocracy sites. If it was posted on one of them, Astro Boy would be a hero, a patriot, one of” the silent majority”.
Yes, we’re all biased here. No sweat. But Astro, your bias is absolutely rank.
At the end of the day, there’s a reason why QLD has voted for a Labor Government for 29 of the past 34 years. People know what the Libs and Nats stand for: Cuts, mass sackings, and sell offs of public assets. They have form. They’ve done it before, and they’ll do it again. If David “the kid” gets in he’ll abolish the mining royalties and we’ll essentially be firetrucked! There will be deep cuts and the public service won’t be spared. Crisafulli was a minister in Newmans cabinet and he will do exactly as he’s told by the big money donors. I wouldn’t trust him with a jam jar full of five cent bits as PJ Keating once stated.
Mickus: you are 100% spot on , their ideology and belief is that the public sector is for bludgers living the good life on the proceed of their taxes who need a boot up the bum. The thing to realise is that private enterprise is only interested in profit and just cannot perform many of the tasks required of living in a civilised society. This blind ideology of the LNP means they will always look to cut and punish public sector workers. Also they blindly believe in privatisation which does not benefit the majority in most cases. OK there is a case for privatisation for some things but essential services should have government control even if at arms length. The LNP at state level have proved themselves time and again incapable of sensible government and are really only propped up by a relentlessly right wing media that wants a privatised society which of course the minority will benefit from. The trick for this media / LNP coalition is to jive talk your way in by hyping up negative issues. Usually they get in and Qlders remember why they chucked them out last time. The only problem is they can do a lot of damage in 4 years.
I posted this comment on the other thread in relation to national productivity, but it is relevant to Qld.
This infrastructure announcement for funding a Sunshine Coast rail line is controversial not for who is doing it now, but who has failed to do it in the past. It should have been funded in the Howard era.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-25/sunshine-coast-direct-railway-cameron-dick-bart-mellish/103509408
I drew an alignment for this line while working in Qld back in the 1990s. The rail line was recommended in a 1996 transport study and the alignment identified and preserved to allow future construction by 1999. Socially and economically it met all the guidelines for need and efficiency. The Labor premier Peter Beatty sought funding out of PM Howard in the 2000s but never got it.
Over the next decade it was blocked by a succession of State and Federal governments unable to agree on who paid. When Rudd was PM it was ignored by Campbell Newman in favour of his soon to be bankrupt Brisbane tollroad tunnels. After Newman, Labor premier Palaszczuk again recommended it, but a string of Liberal PMs refused to hand over cash in the past decade. Three Liberal PMs were so against public transport they would not fund it in their own safest seats.
This highlights a deep flaw in the Nationals/LNP in relation to infrastructure investment. Infrastructure investment is driven solely by a pork barreling imperative. Useless projects in the right electorate get money (viz Inland Rail in Barnaby’s seat) while badly needed infrastructure is not funded in safe seats that are either unwinnable for Labor or unlosable for the LNP.
The LNP has not looked after its safe coastal seats, and it is time Labor took up this fight with them. The Sunshine Coast and Canberra would be the two largest urban areas in Australia with no regular passenger rail service.
Back when Anna Bligh privatized the coal transport rail network she got hammered and Cando arrived.
Looking back, it was a stranded asset with coal tonnage in continual decline. In exchange for transport per ton, QLD picked up $B4 which was top dollar.
Within 12 months Qld had massive floods that cost the new owners $B1 in repair bills. Rail workers believed the Murdoch press and really carried on. The severance layouts that were built into the deal were good to say the least.
Cando sold everything that wasn’t nailed down for giveaway prices. Half a dozen medium rise properties in Brisbane CBD flogged for more than $M150 under book value. In exchange he built 1 William Street and the debt will take a generation to pay off.
L/NP unhappy Qld has taken lots of money off their mining sponsors and is pumping mega dollars into renewables. Budget surpluses by Labor take away the usual better money managers rubbish. Surely they would not slow down or stop renewable energy investment. Of course they would not be even thinking of privatising all the completed up and running units.
Things must be going OK by Aussie standards with about 40,000 intra state migrants arriving each year.
If it’s about the economy and the hip pocket, Labor is a chance of picking up a couple more seats.