New polling from the past few days:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down half), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706.
• Two recent issue salience polls – the SECNewgate Mood of the Nation report and JWS Research’s True Issues survey – continue to find cost of living well in the lead as the issue of greatest concern, but with housing affordability and interest rates narrowing the gap. Immigration and border security, while still well down the lists, are up in both surveys, by five points to 13% in the case of JWS Research. The latter’s “performance index” scores across various issues record “population growth” as the issue on which the government has lost the most skin over the past year. The SECNewgate poll was conducted February 1 to 5 from a sample of 1588, while JWS Research was from February 8 to 11 and a sample of 1000.
• DemosAU found 51% supportive and 32% opposed to the tax cut changes in a poll of 1154 respondents conducted from February 1 to 13, while the SECNewgate poll had it at 60% and 21%. The latter also recorded improvement since October on national direction (with the right-wrong direction split narrowing from 37-63 to 44-56) and predictions for the economy, particularly for the “in twelve months” time frame (from 25% better and 48% worse to 39% better and 36% worse).
Also:
• Samantha Hutchinson of the Financial Review reports a field of five has emerged for the looming federal by-election in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook, including Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce and McKinsey partner Simon Kennedy, who have generally been reckoned the front-runners, and the likewise previously noted Gwen Cherne, Veteran Family Advocate commissioner. The other two are Alex Cooke, head of institutional and private banking at ANZ, and Benjamin Britton, a former United Australia Party candidate and presumably a long shot.
• Western Australian Labor Senator Louise Pratt announced earlier this week she will not contest the next election. Dylan Caporn of The West Australian reports the party’s state secretary, Ellie Whiteaker, has “emerged as the front runner” after confirming her interest in replacing her on the ticket. Whiteaker is a former staffer to Pratt and shares her association with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union.
• Two significant Liberal Party events will be held this weekend: the preselection for the Perth seat of Curtin, which the party lost to teal independent Kate Chaney in 2022, between Matt Moran and Tom White; and a meeting of the New South Wales state council that among things will vote on a motion to expel Mitchell MP Alex Hawke.
• Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports the Liberal preselection for Forrest, previously thought to be a lock for former Senator Ben Small, will in fact be a contest involving Bunbury councillor Gabi Ghasseb, who won an internal party appeal against his exclusion for submitting his nomination 20 minutes after the deadline (and who has also nominated for state upper house preselection). However, Small “remains the overwhelming favourite”. Incumbent Nola Marino recently announced she would not seek another term.
Boerwar @ #544 Sunday, February 25th, 2024 – 8:57 pm
I think the Dems not giving her the chance to shine (if shine she can) was/is a mistake.
The US also has the huge issue of voter turnout. It’s not just a matter of getting people to choose between Biden and Trump. It’s also about convincing people who would be inclined to choose Biden over Trump to actually turn out on the day.
People who buy into the narrative of “Well, they are both just senile old farts with nothing to offer” strike me as likely to sit this one out, even if they think Trump is the worse option. Or to vote third party… which is pretty much the same thing in a first-past-the-post system.
Point taken J J Hall.
Isnt Trump doing better with the African American vote? Its still a tiny minority but a few points could be decisive – given its a core Democratic vote.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Isnt Trump doing better with the African American vote? Its still a tiny minority but a few points could be decisive – given its a core Democratic vote.
=======================================================
I gather he picked up Kanye West’s vote, so he is 1 vote higher there. It seems the mentally deranged like to vote for the mentally deranged.
Lars
Thanks also for the link to the Nate Silver article on Biden’s electability. Silver makes valid points IMO.
I think some of the concerns about Biden have been born out in the way he has responded to the Gaza crisis. Trump is a major concern, but in the US system, if concerns about Biden depress Democrat turnout, we could be facing Trump II.
If we do get Trump II the good news is we can dump AUKUS. The bad news is – everything else that gets dumped.
IMO Australian diplomats should be talking to India, Japan and South Korea about a regional defence pact now. We might need it.
Getting a “moment to shine” would not have helped Harris, and would’ve harmed Biden. There’s a reason he hasn’t sent her out as he’s started to have some of his own struggles: she’s not a figure who gets more popular the more people get to know of her, as her performance in the presidential race showed. She got the gig as VP because she got wide superficial attention and that was enough, but if you’re going to run for president and not go down in flames (as happened the first time), you’ve got to be able to at least be seen to cut it in substance. Harris never could.
India chasing 192 vs England in Ranchi.
Game on!
Biden will be the nominee – short of something physically preventing him doing so.
One of the reasons being he – correctly – considers himself to be the best chance of beating Trump, and I think he will.
Now – if Trump somehow ends up unable to run, then Biden’s in trouble.
Polling is reflective – not predictive, and as someone who was in the US for a while not long ago – people are not, and do not want to start, engaging with this election. Poling at this stage means next to sod all.
The SC result is being misread as a strong performance – on paper, yes. But if you look deeper at the trend – there are a number of consistent elements which should worry the Trump campaign.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 8:55 pm
Rainman says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 8:50 pm
….
Meanwhile, what’s the Albanese government been up to?
…’
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$2 billion on the hydrogen headstart progam.
This compares with zero by the Coalition on renewables over the last decade.
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Ok. Fair enough. Obviously the Federal government is doing more than the climate denying Coalition planet fuckers. But that’s still a lot of approvals for fossil fuel projects.
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Entropy says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 9:05 pm
I gather the Federal Government are committing funding to something called Port Bonython “hydrogen hub” in SA. Is that a competing project to one you mentioned?
“The state and federal governments have ratified funding arrangements for a so-called “hydrogen hub” at Port Bonython, committing to a combined $100 million spend, in addition to private sector funding.”
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Thank you. I honestly didn’t know that and happy to give credit to Albanese when it’s deserved.
And Port Bonython is only 16 kilometres away from Whyalla, so it must be the same hydrogen project.
52-48 Lab 33, LNP 36
Labor’s primary vote has dropped to 33 per cent ahead of Saturday’s critical Dunkley by-election, with Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings remaining in negative territory despite the government retaining its lead over the Coalition on preferences.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows a one-point fall in support for Labor since the previous poll amid the government’s campaign to boost its political stocks through its revamped tax cuts.
The Coalition’s primary vote remains unchanged at 36 per cent. Labor has maintained its 52-48 per cent lead on a two-party preferred basis.
One Nation fell a point to 6 per cent, the Greens remained stable on 12 per cent. However, other minor parties and independents including teal independents, improved two points to 13 per cent.
The latest results show the government having failed to improve its position overall since December, with no apparent boost from last month’s tax cut announcement, which sought to redistribute income tax cuts for higher-income earners to lower and middle-income earners.
While the tax cuts were supported by a majority of Australians, the latest Newspoll shows they have failed to translate into an increase in support for Labor.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/second-newspoll-in-a-row-shows-no-net-gain-for-labor-after-its-tax-reset/news-story/67814b9a43e96d1151f062fe5a79ce82?amp
I have to say nadia88 – whoever you are. You are one hell of a poster on this site.
You know your shi%t.
Newspoll
TPP: ALP 52 (0) L/NP 48 (0)
Primary: ALP 33 (-1) L/NP 36 (0) GRN 12 (0) ON 6 (-1) OTH 13 (+2)
Preferred PM: Albanese 46 (0) Dutton 35 (0)
Albanese: Approve 42 (0) Disapprove 51 (+1)
Dutton: Approve 37 (-2) Disapprove 50 (+2)
https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/second-newspoll-in-a-row-shows-no-net-gain-for-labor-after-its-tax-reset/news-story/67814b9a43e96d1151f062fe5a79ce82
Resolve have finally got it right. Now can compare to Newspoll.
It’s kind of funny – all the frothing about stage 3 was set up to be a killer for Labor – but because it now hasn’t benefited them… that’s the story?
Bless. This is going to be the best chance the Coalition has had – and they’ve squibbed it and now we’re in the usual mid-term funk.
Rebecca says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 9:28 pm
Getting a “moment to shine” would not have helped Harris, and would’ve harmed Biden. There’s a reason he hasn’t sent her out as he’s started to have some of his own struggles: she’s not a figure who gets more popular the more people get to know of her, as her performance in the presidential race showed. She got the gig as VP because she got wide superficial attention and that was enough, but if you’re going to run for president and not go down in flames (as happened the first time), you’ve got to be able to at least be seen to cut it in substance. Harris never could.
——————————————————————————
It sure didn’t help Harris that Biden handed her the poison chalice of border security. It stinks of deliberately undermining her.
I would imagine that Kanye probably voted for himself, not Trump.
It’s funny how the Australian, in reporting the Newspoll results, finds the most pertinent thing is that the Government has achieved “no apparent boost from last month’s tax cut announcement”, when for 99% of the time after the announcement they said it was a broken promise which could well hurt the Government.
Looks like tomorrow’s Oz is a stream of dribble describing a poll result where basically nothing changed.
It’s Rebecca who knows her stuff.
I don’t think he needed any help in undermining her – she was always perfectly capable of doing that on her own unaided. I always thought the border security focus was originally given to her out of misplaced confidence, prior to the added toxicity around border issues in the last couple of years, and then, because Biden is not, in fact, a fool, they cottoned on the fact she wasn’t going to be a great asset.
I don’t think he needed any help in undermining her – she was always perfectly capable of doing that on her own unaided. I always thought the border security focus was originally given to her out of misplaced confidence, prior to the added toxicity around border issues in the last couple of years, and then, because Biden is not, in fact, a fool, they cottoned on the fact she wasn’t going to be a great asset.
New thread.
I agree with the previous comments. The Oz article, like all polling articles since the S3 tax cut changes were announced, plays up the idea that the govt has missed out on some sort of expected boost to support.
Before the change, ALL the main media sources played up the idea that Labor risked a DROP in support if they dared tinker with a tax cut promise.
William Bowesays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 8:48 pm
WB or Steve – can you do a quick calc. pls.
=================================
Thanks WB (& Steve earlier). So I take it that probably both Resolve Strategic and Essential Vision should be taken with a bit of a “raised eyebrow”, in that they don’t post a 2PP and they fluff around a bit with the undecideds. I suspected it too though I sort of don’t mind Essential because they post every 2 weeks and have the guts to publish their figures (even if the 2PP round-up is non senensical). Thanks for getting back, both of you!
Steve777: “Not entirely sure what an incompetent Vice President would look like, given the nature of the role.”
Spiro T Agnew?*
* No, not a Groucho Marx character; Nixon’s VP.
meher baba: “… it’s pretty obvious that [Kamala Harris] was chosen for her race rather than her merit …”
Or, indeed, her races …
Rainman says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 9:33 pm
Boerwar says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 8:55 pm
Rainman says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 8:50 pm
….
Meanwhile, what’s the Albanese government been up to?
…’
—————————
$2 billion on the hydrogen headstart progam.
This compares with zero by the Coalition on renewables over the last decade.
———————
Seems committing zero on renewables by the Coalition may change:
Why the Coalition wants more homes with solar and batteries
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/why-the-coalition-wants-more-homes-with-solar-and-batteries-20240221-p5f6qc
February 21, 2024.’Labor runs the risk of being outflanked by an emerging Coalition plan to expand household and business rooftop solar and storage, potentially undermining a political consensus for taxpayer underwriting of big-business-backed industrial renewables.
A day after Nationals leader David Littleproud revealed in The Australian Financial Review that he and his team are looking at policies that would shift money away from global investors and into the hands of households.’
There have been many suggesting of this cost-of -living benefit for rooftop solar to Labor in recent times. But Labor haven’t been interested.
I guess Labor is now a party supporting business as a priority. Note big immigration numbers. Not most Australians.
Of course. Are these Liberal and National MPs truthful here?
”
Macarthursays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 7:27 pm
Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 7:13 pm:
“Whats the latest with Congress MacArthur? Wasn’t there a move to force a vote on funding? There’s been no media about it in recent days – do you know current state of play?”
=====================
Lars, yes, there are moves to bring on a ‘discharge petition’, as it’s called, to circumvent the Speaker’s refusal to put the Senate foreign aid bill to a floor vote in the House. CBS has this explainer:
“A House rule dating back to 1931 outlines the process. Any member can file a discharge petition with the House clerk, who then makes it available in a “convenient place” for members to sign.
”
If you ( means anyone posting/ reading on PB) watched Legally Blonde movie, you would understand”discharge petition” better because the movie plot is based on that legislative procedure.
Rainman, Rewi & Dogs Brunch
Re: Joni Mitchell
The 70s saw many singer / songwriters use personal relationships – good or bad – as the basis for many of their lyrics.
I don’t believe that they were the first or the last.
Taylor Swift seems, from my perspective, to follow that formula, too.
Joni had an intensity which transcended many of her contemporaries and those lyricists that preceded her.
The Rolling Stones & Beatles have a great track record in this area, too.
Other songs which Joni wrote about former partners and lovers include:
Willy – was written specifically about Graeme Nash.
The Dawntreader – David Crosby
I had a King – Leonard Cohen.
My Old Man – Possibly James Taylor or Graeme Nash.
Carey – Leonard Cohen.
A Case of You.
The Last Time I saw Richard – her first husband.
Freeman in Paris – David Geffen – Her then manager & record label CEO.
People’s Parties – many prominent West Coast showbiz people.
Yes, ‘Our House’ was written by Graeme Nash about he and Joni.
He performed a wonderful version at her 75th birthday testimonial concert.
The ‘Flo & Eddie’ period Mothers of Invention did a great live parody of Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young on ‘Billy the Mountain’ (from ‘Just Another Band from LA’) where they rewrite the coda from ‘Suite: Judy Blue Eyes’ to send up CSN & Y and Joni Mitchell.
There are probably a lot more of Joni’s songs which could be listed.
After the ‘Court and Spark’ album most of her relationship songs tendered to be more general and less specific, but there were still some to be found.