New polling from the past few days:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down half), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706.
• Two recent issue salience polls – the SECNewgate Mood of the Nation report and JWS Research’s True Issues survey – continue to find cost of living well in the lead as the issue of greatest concern, but with housing affordability and interest rates narrowing the gap. Immigration and border security, while still well down the lists, are up in both surveys, by five points to 13% in the case of JWS Research. The latter’s “performance index” scores across various issues record “population growth” as the issue on which the government has lost the most skin over the past year. The SECNewgate poll was conducted February 1 to 5 from a sample of 1588, while JWS Research was from February 8 to 11 and a sample of 1000.
• DemosAU found 51% supportive and 32% opposed to the tax cut changes in a poll of 1154 respondents conducted from February 1 to 13, while the SECNewgate poll had it at 60% and 21%. The latter also recorded improvement since October on national direction (with the right-wrong direction split narrowing from 37-63 to 44-56) and predictions for the economy, particularly for the “in twelve months” time frame (from 25% better and 48% worse to 39% better and 36% worse).
Also:
• Samantha Hutchinson of the Financial Review reports a field of five has emerged for the looming federal by-election in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook, including Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce and McKinsey partner Simon Kennedy, who have generally been reckoned the front-runners, and the likewise previously noted Gwen Cherne, Veteran Family Advocate commissioner. The other two are Alex Cooke, head of institutional and private banking at ANZ, and Benjamin Britton, a former United Australia Party candidate and presumably a long shot.
• Western Australian Labor Senator Louise Pratt announced earlier this week she will not contest the next election. Dylan Caporn of The West Australian reports the party’s state secretary, Ellie Whiteaker, has “emerged as the front runner” after confirming her interest in replacing her on the ticket. Whiteaker is a former staffer to Pratt and shares her association with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union.
• Two significant Liberal Party events will be held this weekend: the preselection for the Perth seat of Curtin, which the party lost to teal independent Kate Chaney in 2022, between Matt Moran and Tom White; and a meeting of the New South Wales state council that among things will vote on a motion to expel Mitchell MP Alex Hawke.
• Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports the Liberal preselection for Forrest, previously thought to be a lock for former Senator Ben Small, will in fact be a contest involving Bunbury councillor Gabi Ghasseb, who won an internal party appeal against his exclusion for submitting his nomination 20 minutes after the deadline (and who has also nominated for state upper house preselection). However, Small “remains the overwhelming favourite”. Incumbent Nola Marino recently announced she would not seek another term.
“King Charles has issued a strongly-worded message of support for Ukraine, in a statement marking the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion.
He has spoken of the “indescribable aggression” that has faced Ukrainians since what he calls the “unprovoked attack on their land”.
The unusually direct message seems to be a rallying call to keep up international assistance for Ukraine…
… It’s unusual for the King to speak so unambiguously about an international conflict and his comments reflect the strength of his feeling.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68391750
Nine news around oz are reporting this poll saying “Trouble for the gov in the polls”
No 2Pp in the news piece either sounds more like a spoiler for the Newspoll maybe.
News before mafs a lot of people would be viewing.
meher:
Haley won’t get enough votes to win the election. All her presence would do as a 3rd party candidate is siphon votes away from Democrats and Republicans, possibly to the point there isn’t a ‘clear and obvious’ winner (that being a candidate with a solid majority), which only gives succour to the anticipated Trump line that there is no real and genuine winner.
Chaos will ensue.
Those primaries look like business-as-usual to me. I imagine Labor’s still at least a point or two in front on TTP on numbers like that.
Whats the latest with Congress MacArthur? Wasn’t there a move to force a vote on funding? There’s been no media about it in recent days – do you know current state of play?
Honestly, if it encourages the US to join the rest of us in the 21st century and implement preferential/ranked-choice across the country, a prominent third party run might just be worth any potential chaos and/or spoiler effects.
I think it’s in both the Democrats’ and the United States’ long-term interests that a saner alternative to the Republicans emerges to disrupt the two-party system, as unlikely as that seems at present given how rigged the US system is against third-party candidates and how cowardly and ineffectual the RINOs have proved so far.
There’s only so long that traditional conservatives are going to be willing to hold their nose and vote for a Democrat (at least, not without the Democrats shifting further to the right to appeal to such voters, which is the last thing that a country as deep in the throes of late-stage capitalism as the US needs right now), and once Trump is gone from the political scene, I suspect most of the genuine anti-Trumpers will happily fall into line behind whatever crackpot inevitably becomes the Republicans’ next presidential nominee, using the same lame rationalisations most used to justify supporting Trump in the first place.
Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 7:13 pm:
“Whats the latest with Congress MacArthur? Wasn’t there a move to force a vote on funding? There’s been no media about it in recent days – do you know current state of play?”
=====================
Lars, yes, there are moves to bring on a ‘discharge petition’, as it’s called, to circumvent the Speaker’s refusal to put the Senate foreign aid bill to a floor vote in the House. CBS has this explainer:
“A House rule dating back to 1931 outlines the process. Any member can file a discharge petition with the House clerk, who then makes it available in a “convenient place” for members to sign.
A waiting period of seven legislative days kicks off once the petition gains the signatures of a majority of the chamber. After that, a member who has signed the petition can notify leadership that they’ll bring the discharge motion on the floor.
The speaker must then designate a time for the motion to be considered within two legislative days. If a majority approves it, the House then moves to consider the underlying measure…
… House Democrats already have one broadly worded discharge petition that has the support of 212 active members, and party leaders believe they can use that as a shell or vehicle for bringing the foreign aid bill to the floor. But it would still need sign-on from a handful of House Republicans to reach the 218-member threshold.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/discharge-petition-house-democrats-foreign-aid-bill/
So, the Democrats are now waiting for the House to return on February 28 (thanks to the unearned two-week paid vacation Mike ‘Speaker’ Johnson pulled out of his rear end last week) so the petition can be put out for signatures. Hence the lacks of any real news about it these past few days.
Once 218 signatures are reached, it will be 9 legislative days before the bill can then be voted on by the House. At that point, it is generally expected that a supermajority will vote for it: almost all Democrats, plus maybe 40-45% of Republicans.
Even if Trump loses he still hangs around right? Goes for the next nomination. Still got shit to sell.
Thanks MacArthur thats informative – but are there 5 Republican votes to sign the petition?
From what your saying – if they can discharge , then they likely get the aid approved?
Nath:
Yep. I can envision him eight years from now, permanently bedridden in a prison hospital and completely gone to Alzheimer’s, and still somehow winding up the frontrunner in that year’s GOP race.
“No, no, you see, he’s just pretending to be unable to walk or control his bowels as part of his plan to bring down the deep state. And while it may have sounded like he spent an hour and a half drooling and mumbling nonsense during the last debate, he was actually making insightful points about the economy and border security that only the truly intelligent can understand. Wake up, sheeple!”
Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 7:36 pm:
“Thanks MacArthur thats informative – but are there 5 Republican votes to sign the petition?
From what your saying – if they can discharge , then they likely get the aid approved?”
===================
Lars, this is what’s really uncertain. It is one thing to be on the record as supporting aid to Ukraine, and there are (I think) about 100 House Republicans who are. It is another for any of them to openly defy the Speaker/Whip to bring the vote to the floor. How many of those 100 or so will have the resolve to face the Trump-driven MAGA fury which will swamp them for siding against them and with the Democrats is the $95 billion question nobody currently knows the answer to.
But your last point is right: if a discharge petition succeeds, it is basically guaranteed to have the numbers to pass the House. And in this particular bill’s case, since it has already passed the Senate and is guaranteed to get President Biden’s signature, it will become law.
MacArthur see this:
https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-push-discharge-petition-against-mike-johnson-1872277#:~:text=The%2010%20House%20Republicans%20being,and%20Dan%20Crenshaw%20(TX).
Nath
“ Even if Trump loses he still hangs around right? Goes for the next nomination. Still got shit to sell.”
I’m not so sure about Trump in four years time. Despite all the attention on Biden’s age and memory problems, Trump is 77 and has cognitive problems of his own. In four years Trump will be 81, the same age as Biden now, and arguably in worse physical health. I think the product will be getting fairly stale by 2028. I think this is Trump’s last throw of the dice, and he knows it.
Could be, but when you’ve literally got millions of people on the hook, it would be hard to let that go.
LVT: “My guess is Biden goes at the Convention – it minimises the lame duck period and it allows the Convention to broker a candidate without being forced to take Kamala Harris.”
———————————————————–
In the event of Biden pulling out, it is going to be extremely difficult for the Dems to go with anyone other than Harris without there being a major internal party fight. Nobody much likes her: she doesn’t even seem to have that much appeal to African-American voters. But she and a bunch of bandwagoners will most likely make an enormous fuss about the “first woman of colour” being denied the chance to run for the Presidency. This is a textbook illustration of why it’s always a dangerous idea to appoint people to important positions for reasons other than their ability (eg, “something, something, George Floyd, something, something, woman of colour, something something),
Rumour has it that the alternative ticket would be Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer as the lead candidate and Raphael Warnock for VP. Whitmer’s candidacy is meant to keep the feminists happy while Warnock – who has helped to carry on the tradition of MLK – is meant to win over African-Americans. But will it be an appealing ticket to potential swinging voters, most of whom (outside of Michigan) probably know just about nothing about Whitmer and little more about Warnock, and would have little time to get to know them between the convention and election day? I’m not really sure that a Whitmer-Warnock ticket is going to be much better than letting Kamala have a crack. Voters around the world are wary of voting for people about whom they know very little, and too many of them might end up preferring to go with what they see as a known quantity in Trump.
Some people have also talked about Gavin Newsom, although my sense is that political insiders in the US don’t think he’s any chance at all. He’s a fair way to the left of Biden or even Harris, and he’s extremely vulnerable on the issues of border control and homelessness. Whitmer-Warnock would be better than him.
But, with all his faults, sticking with Biden is far better than any of the alternatives IMO. Unless he really starts to lose his marbles, which is possible I guess.
laughtongsays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 6:14 pm
====================================
Good pick-up Laughtong re: Resolve.
Primaries as follows:
* ALP 34% (down 1)
* LNP 37% (up 3)
* GRN 11% (down 1). Comment: Surprisingly low figure for the Greens
* ONP 6% (up 1)
* Others/Indie/UAP 14%
2PP (My calc) 52.4% ALP.
WB or Steve – can you do a quick calc. pls.
Poll Release date: 25-Feb-2024
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Give me a hat tip again pls, ha ha!
Witching hour begins soon too.
Resolve 37 LNP /34 Labor
LNP improves in NSW and Vic/miles ahead in QLD over Labor and miles behind Labor in rest of Australia.
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/15/recycling-plastics-producers-report
I still remain totally baffled as to why exactly Kamala Harris is (apparently) so legendarily unpopular and how exactly she is (apparently) so lacking in talent. She strikes as just being a typical competent and fairly well-spoken politician.
Re Resolve Poll, the numbers are: ALP 34 (-1), L-NP 37 (+3), GRN 11 (-1), ON 6 (+1), Someone Else 12
So 2PP is ALP 34 +0+(5/6)*11+(3/7)*6+(1/2)*12 = 51.7% —> 52.
This is in line with other recent polls. I don’t know what the last resolve is. Presumably it wasn’t too different otherwise that would have been the headline.
nath @ #508 Sunday, February 25th, 2024 – 7:29 pm
Hang around, just being nice, biding his time. Like hell he will. He’ll do what he did last time. They’re ready to go, challenge, obstruct, lie and cheat through systems much better rigged this time, through every court. And the last time it went to the Supreme Court – that’s right, oh dear, they ran right out of time, and in the “interests of the country” gave the Presidency to the loser.
Which certainly doesn’t mean she should just be handed the nomination if Biden drops out, either. I just really don’t see where the unpopularity and lack of confidence in her as a presidential candidate comes from, and I honestly think a lot of it is just because being Vice President doesn’t really afford her an opportunity to actually do a whole lot, and that has left her vulnerable to these rather odd attacks about her apparently being ineffectual and kept in the background.
With the right team and platform, I think she’d probably do fine as a candidate… likely moreso than Biden, who – as I’ve said before – I consider to have generally been a pretty good President who has achieved some impressive wins when it comes to pushing progressive reforms through a hostile congress, but whose capacity to handle a presidential campaign I am becoming increasing worried about.
Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 7:58 pm:
=====================
Fingers crossed, toes crossed, feet off the floor!
Asha @ #519 Sunday, February 25th, 2024 – 8:23 pm
“a typical competent and fairly well-spoken politician”
That’s the thing. That’s just, and all, she is. Except for the invisible part. She’s meant to be the VP ready to take over at the stroke (sic) of any midnight soon.
Steve777
Resolve doesn’t publish a 2PP split. (They are like Essential). Not too sure why.
Thanks too for prompt maths.
Previous primaries are on the link, I posted a short time ago. There is a mechanism to check back on their site.
Hello Michael – Haven’t heard from you for a while. Glad to see you back on the blog. I still remember your Newspoll pick late last year. Gold! You obviously work in the industry (or know your stuff) so thanks for dropping a line once in a while.
Few polls coming up this week:
* Resolve (surprisingly dropped this evening)
* Newspoll – has to be soon (nothing on the Peter Van Onselen twitter feed as yet)
* Morgan (Monday, or Tues)
* Essential (Tues arvo)
* YouGov (Thurs around early arvo)
”I still remain totally baffled as to why exactly Kamala Harris is (apparently) so legendarily unpopular and how exactly she is (apparently) so lacking in talent.”
Same here.
Not entirely sure what an incompetent Vice President would look like, given the nature of the role. She seems to be regarded as a bit of a lightweight. In Australia, she would have been subject to intense daily attacks in Murdoch media for fours years, creating s strong negative impression, but the USA’s media is much more diverse.
And even if she were as incompetent as, say, Barnaby Joyce, she’s still be vastly better than Donald Trump.
SMH reporting coalition taking primary lead away from Labour.
I wonder when the brainiacs at ALP central are going recommend going hard on Dutton and his bullshit or are they just going to hope the voters see through him.
You know, the way they did with Abbott.
Morrison went to Taylor Swift last night in red with a red cap with stars and stripes on it. I’ll spare you the link in case you’re still eating.
Well if mundo is here you know things are looking grim.
This is a good article on the issue with Biden’s ability to win (and the doubts re his age)
https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-time-for-the-white-house-to-put
Mundosays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 8:40 pm
SMH reporting coalition taking primary lead away from Labour.
I wonder when the brainiacs at ALP central are going recommend going hard on Dutton and his bullshit or are they just going to hope the voters see through him.
You know, the way they did with Abbott.
=====================================================
Which of those two options are you recommending?.
nathsays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 8:41 pm
Well if mundo is here you know things are looking grim.
=====================================================
Only for a bed that doesn’t have a mattress protector fitted.
Mundo:
“Taking the primary lead” doesn’t mean a whole lot in a full preferential system. The Coalition had a primary lead in the 2022 election too – a bigger one than they have in that Resolve poll, in fact – and it didn’t do them much good.
Don’t get me wrong, a party’s primary vote is important, but only insofar as it translates to a 2PP vote and – even more importantly – to victories in at least 50+1% of seats in the House of Representatives.
Despite the polls and everything else pro Trump, I still can’t accept that he will be POTUS again. For a start, the vast majority of women won’t support the anti abortion bullshit being promoted by the mad right, and I don’t believe he has enough money to cover the cost of his legal woes.
Lars Von Trier @ #530 Sunday, February 25th, 2024 – 8:42 pm
Thanks.
“You need to adjust to the new reality and not be mired in anchoring bias by your previous impression of the race.”
And the new reality isn’t just Biden’s problems. It’s the lunatic. Did you hear him after South Carolina. Off the Scale scary.
Lars:
Excellent article. Nate Silver makes some really good points.
This is complicated by Resolve Strategic’s 9% independent component, which compares with 5.3% at the election. Every respondent is given this option, and will continue to be until the election is on and nominations have closed, at which point respondents will be given options tailored to who’s running in their electorates. The poll will then record a sudden slump in support for independents, and much confusion will ensue.
So if you apply the total independent flows from 2022, Labor gets nearly 64% of them, which reflects how many of those voters were supporting teals. But I’d doubt that’s the case with the extra 3.7% independent vote that Resolve Strategic is now picking up. So I think what I’ll do is leave independent at 5.3% and continue giving Labor 64% of those, and add the other 3.7% to others, from which Labor’s preference share was 45%. Which gives me a final read of 51.9-48.1.
ETA: Which would be the reason such different results are produced by Nadia (who is clearly giving Labor 64% of the 9% independent vote) and Steve (who is lumping together independents and others).
‘The iron and steel industry accounts for around 7% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 11% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions’
Source: globalefficiencyintel.com
‘Metallurgical coal is an essential ingredient in the production of steel’
Source: bhp.com
‘The South Australian government has signed an agreement to sell hydrogen to a company that owns the Whyalla steelworks in the state’s Upper Spencer Gulf.
The announcement comes as the state government will this year start building a 200 megawatt (MW) hydrogen power plant and storage facility near Whyalla under a $593 million Hydrogen Jobs Plan to bolster the state’s electricity supply.
Premier Peter Malinauskas said the hydrogen facility and the greening of Whyalla steelworks will “lead the world through decarbonisation”.’
Source: abc.com
Once again, it’s a State government leading the way to curtail fossil fuel emissions. Once again, that State is South Australia.
Meanwhile, what’s the Albanese government been up to?
‘The eight fossil fuel projects approved by Tanya Plibersek include two new coal mines, three expansions or extensions, an offshore petroleum project, an onshore gas project, and an extension on an existing offshore petroleum project.’
Source: michaelwest.com.au
Asha: ‘I still remain totally baffled as to why exactly Kamala Harris is (apparently) so legendarily unpopular and how exactly she is (apparently) so lacking in talent. She strikes as just being a typical competent and fairly well-spoken politician.”
She’s smart, seems quite competent at the administrative and senatorial aspects of her job, and she has spent three years learning the ropes. But her main problem is that she tends to come across in public as lacking in confidence: not something American voters want to see in the person in control of their nuclear arsenal. Add to this the fact that it’s pretty obvious that she was chosen for her race rather than her merit: she was far from impressive during her short primary campaign in 2020. She’s relatively young, and some more experience in the Senate (to which she was only elected in 2017) before she started aspiring to still higher office might have done her a lot of good.
That said, at least she’s now a familiar face to everyone, which is why I’m inclined to think that she’s actually a better option than the much-vaunted Whitmer or Newsom. Another four years as V-P might even bring her to the point at which she becomes a more appealing candidate.
But she’s not a great option at this point in time: even a semi-senile Biden is a far better one. That’s politics: some people are vote-winners, and others – even though they might have more intelligence and better administrative ability – are not.
Rainman says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 8:50 pm
….
Meanwhile, what’s the Albanese government been up to?
…’
—————————
$2 billion on the hydrogen headstart progam.
This compares with zero by the Coalition on renewables over the last decade.
This isn’t bad for a country which has lost 18% of its territory, 15% of its population and 13% of its GDP from Russia’s invasion and occupation:
“Ukraine tripled its weapons production last year and 500 companies are now working in the country’s defence sector, Kyiv’s strategic industries minister said on Sunday.
Oleksandr Kamyshin said during a televised address in Kyiv that the figure included 100 state and 400 private companies and that Ukraine this year plans “to considerably increase ammunition production.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/feb/25/ukraine-russia-war-live-g7-funding-kyiv-military-drone-attacks-latest-news#top-of-blog
michael
Per QLD – Resolve.
Yes, I saw that. LNP Primary at a (sorry to use this word) “stonking 44%”, with the ONP sitting at 9%.
What is going on in QLD? Premier Chrisafulli looms. 44% Primary in QLD is ghastly for Labor!
Did anyone notice that the LNP has also taken the lead in VIC on primaries (for the first time on Resolve since 17/5/2022). This is not good for Labor.
There is something going on which I can’t put my finger on.
Anyway, we’ll see how this busy week washes up.
Itza:
Absolutely!
But the difference is that Biden’s brand is sane and reliable, and as such he is more vulnerable to attacks on his ability to be President, while Trump has always been a scary lunatic who anybody with more than three functioning braincells could tell wasn’t fit for office. Now he’s just even scarier and even more of a lunatic and even more unfit for the Presidency.
Will that convince enough people not to vote for him in November? I genuinely don’t know, but I sure fucking hope so!
It is extremely difficult for VEEPs to shine so we would need to go back to what Harris achieved before she became VEEP to get a handle on her competencies.
Harris holds the record for having to make a tiebreaker vote in the Senate more times (33) than any other Vice-President in history. You have to go back two centuries to find second on the list John Calhoun (31), and all the way to the first Vice-President John Adams for third place on that list (29). That tells me that she is required to be in the Senate more than any Vice-President in history. How exactly can Harris increase her public profile in those circumstances in the current political climate?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tie-breaking_votes_cast_by_the_vice_president_of_the_United_States
Hi Nadia, thanks been busy with work.
Yes QLD is a wipeout for Labor on that Resolve Poll.
But take out QLD/Vic/NSW and the rest of Aust is a wipeout for the LNP in resolve (assume its WA/SA and maybe Tas but not ACT and NT included).
I think Newspoll is a chance tonight as well.
Everyone seems to be looking at this as if it’s Australia. It’s not. It’s a rigged electoral system, with non-compulsory on a cold working day Tuesday in November, with mega massive amounts of money, media bias on a scale ascending, and a country still with an unresolved civil war festering away.
I think it’s perilously close to a very dark age. Please the Buddha that I am so wrong.
Hello Been There,
Hope you’re on tonight, or you pick up my message during the week.
I saw there was a silly carry-on yesterday morning about the lizard. You did the right thing – would’ve been ridiculous to drive a half mauled lizard around town to a vet because he would’ve been in pain. You did the right thing love & I would’ve done the same thing. Hope the house move is going well.
Rainmansays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 8:50 pm
Once again, it’s a State government leading the way to curtail fossil fuel emissions. Once again, that State is South Australia.
Meanwhile, what’s the Albanese government been up to?
===================================================
I gather the Federal Government are committing funding to something called Port Bonython “hydrogen hub” in SA. Is that a competing project to one you mentioned?
“The state and federal governments have ratified funding arrangements for a so-called “hydrogen hub” at Port Bonython, committing to a combined $100 million spend, in addition to private sector funding.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-25/whyalla-hydrogen-export-hub-secures-federal-state-funding-deal/102896024
Harris was never particularly popular among large sections of the Democratic base due to a series of poor calls on policy issues and a terminal inability to read the room.
The establishment support, against a weak opponent, carried her to the Senate, but her presidential candidacy went down in flames amidst a chaotic campaign that fell apart at the seams – there, being a vaguely charismatic minority candidate who’d been a major city district attorney couldn’t cut it on its own.
Her relative unpopularity might be news if you first heard of her when she was nominated for the vice-presidency, but it shouldn’t if you’d known of her since she was DA. She was a bad choice, especially given the likelihood that Biden mightn’t be able to serve two terms, and it’s now coming back to bite them.
Of the final four he vetted, Biden should have chosen Gretchen Whitmer – popular, tough-as-nails swing state governor (given Susan Rice was too controversial and Elizabeth Warren too radical). Of the black women he vetted, if that was what he wanted to do, he should’ve either stuck with Karen Bass or toughed it out with Rice – who, while controversial, would’ve at least been an asset in the job.
If he’d had Whitmer or (potentially, if she could pull through the controversy) Rice as VP, the possibility of Biden not running for a second term would have been a far more plausible option if necessary. Whitmer could handle Trump, whereas Trump would eat Harris alive.