New polling from the past few days:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down half), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706.
• Two recent issue salience polls – the SECNewgate Mood of the Nation report and JWS Research’s True Issues survey – continue to find cost of living well in the lead as the issue of greatest concern, but with housing affordability and interest rates narrowing the gap. Immigration and border security, while still well down the lists, are up in both surveys, by five points to 13% in the case of JWS Research. The latter’s “performance index” scores across various issues record “population growth” as the issue on which the government has lost the most skin over the past year. The SECNewgate poll was conducted February 1 to 5 from a sample of 1588, while JWS Research was from February 8 to 11 and a sample of 1000.
• DemosAU found 51% supportive and 32% opposed to the tax cut changes in a poll of 1154 respondents conducted from February 1 to 13, while the SECNewgate poll had it at 60% and 21%. The latter also recorded improvement since October on national direction (with the right-wrong direction split narrowing from 37-63 to 44-56) and predictions for the economy, particularly for the “in twelve months” time frame (from 25% better and 48% worse to 39% better and 36% worse).
Also:
• Samantha Hutchinson of the Financial Review reports a field of five has emerged for the looming federal by-election in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook, including Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce and McKinsey partner Simon Kennedy, who have generally been reckoned the front-runners, and the likewise previously noted Gwen Cherne, Veteran Family Advocate commissioner. The other two are Alex Cooke, head of institutional and private banking at ANZ, and Benjamin Britton, a former United Australia Party candidate and presumably a long shot.
• Western Australian Labor Senator Louise Pratt announced earlier this week she will not contest the next election. Dylan Caporn of The West Australian reports the party’s state secretary, Ellie Whiteaker, has “emerged as the front runner” after confirming her interest in replacing her on the ticket. Whiteaker is a former staffer to Pratt and shares her association with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union.
• Two significant Liberal Party events will be held this weekend: the preselection for the Perth seat of Curtin, which the party lost to teal independent Kate Chaney in 2022, between Matt Moran and Tom White; and a meeting of the New South Wales state council that among things will vote on a motion to expel Mitchell MP Alex Hawke.
• Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports the Liberal preselection for Forrest, previously thought to be a lock for former Senator Ben Small, will in fact be a contest involving Bunbury councillor Gabi Ghasseb, who won an internal party appeal against his exclusion for submitting his nomination 20 minutes after the deadline (and who has also nominated for state upper house preselection). However, Small “remains the overwhelming favourite”. Incumbent Nola Marino recently announced she would not seek another term.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 4:07 pm
Thanks Entropy – the first 50 years of the northern entity were an interesting time. Once the state was established, the IRA had a few feeble attempts at insurrection but received little popular support despite significant discrimination from the government and industry.
================================================
I spent one Christmas at Greysteel in Northern Ireland with a UK work friend once. It was very cold and there was even snow on the giants causeway only stopping where the waves lapped it up. The local pub was owned by his uncle and was called the “Rising Sun” because it was at the bottom of an east facing slope and looked out on the sun rise. The pub patrons were mainly just local villagers so complete mix of Catholics and Protestants there. Though unfortunately about 5 years earlier some idiot loyalist terrorists in Belfast who probably could not spell. Thought the pub was the “Rising Son” it is believed and that had some sort of Republican connotation?. So they massacred both the Catholics and Protestants drinking there believing it was some sort of sectarian Catholic pub?.
My friends little brother was a huge fan of the Dutch soccer team and wore their jumper everywhere, even to mass. Which caused his mother some stress. Which his mother use to tell everyone he is to young to lose his innocence by being told why he shouldn’t wear orange.
Nikki Haley has vowed to fight on in the Republican primary race despite a humiliating loss to Donald Trump in her home state of South Carolina. Mr Trump routed Ms Haley, the state’s former governor, by more than 20 points in Saturday’s vote – extending his early lead in Iowa and New Hampshire.
With 90 per cent of the votes counted, Ms Haley has won only three of the 50 available delegates.
The result makes it all but certain that Mr Trump will secure the GOP nomination this summer, and puts Ms Haley’s campaign in a precarious position ahead of the slew of primary votes on March 5.
American society is not broken .
It’s haters are the ones that are broken.
Oakeshott Country @ #449 Sunday, February 25th, 2024 – 4:13 pm
Why can’t these people just practise their religion privately? And silently?!
Why do they always need to foist their views onto absolutely everybody?
American society may not be broken (although arguably the flyover states with their obsessions about women’s bodies has smashed the Western doctrine of separating church and state), but its democracy very nearly is.
Pied pipersays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 5:01 pm
American society is not broken .
It’s haters are the ones that are broken.
——————-
If Trump is a front runner for the WH there is something wrong with American politics. Trump winning in 2016 made sense but his presidency was dysfunctional and the attempted coup should disqualify him.
Albo: “ I gave a speech last night at the food and beverage annual dinner”
How dumb does this guy think people are? Even some of our stooges must be seeing this for what it is now.
Pied pipersays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 5:01 pm
American society is not broken .
It’s haters are the ones that are broken.
============================================
I’m sure American society will be very relieved to have your support on this. Though i’m not sure many of them will see this post.
Of direct interest or of passing interest to many a Bludger:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/25/education-minister-hints-at-relief-on-student-hecs-debt-and-university-course-fee-changes
Rugby League and Jesus
I tend to agree but i do find it amusing.
To’O was once asked what the prayer circle prayed about after a match. The answer was that they thanked Lord Jesus for the success of Nathan Cleary’s double pump and flick pass which led to the winning try.
I never knew that Lord Jesus had such intimate knowledge of rugby league tactics.
The one good thing is that the number of pre-season atrocities seems to have lessened in the last few years.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/katy-perry-performed-at-lavish-mansion-party-but-the-pm-just-wanted-to-talk-jobs-20240225-p5f7lq.html
Whose going to be first to defend this? Cmon Steve777 have a go?
There are some cracking speakers on the list:
https://tripleconference.com/?fbclid=IwAR1wAoA_qJEYJQboNelcncF04u2yTl3k3QmMVW9HgZ7v824z2UpEghrlZPk
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 5:13 pm
Albo: “ I gave a speech last night at the food and beverage annual dinner”
How dumb does this guy think people are? Even some of our stooges must be seeing this for what it is now.
=====================================================
I hope it was a better speech than Dutton’s at Gina’s party last month. Dutton’s “how green is my valley” speech seems a bit boring to me. Hopefully Albo found a better and more personnel topic plus injected some humour into it.
“Peter Dutton was flown to a party at the Pilbara mine of Australia’s richest person, Gina Rinehart, by another billionaire rich-lister, where he made a speech suggesting parents and teachers talk to children about the positives of the mining sector.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/10/peter-dutton-gina-rinehart-pilbara-party-flown-roy-hill-mine-warburton-group
Lol that’s ScoMo level BS
Was rugby even played in Jesus’s time?
It reminds me of these Republicans who declare only they can deliver the American envisioned in the bible (or wtte).
Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 5:14 pm
Rugby League and Jesus
I tend to agree but i do find it amusing.
To’O was once asked what the prayer circle prayed about after a match. The answer was that they thanked Lord Jesus for the success of Nathan Cleary’s double pump and flick pass which led to the winning try.
I never knew that Lord Jesus had such intimate knowledge of rugby league tactics.
The one good thing is that the number of pre-season atrocities seems to have lessened in the last few years.’
——————–
You forgot about sin.
https://christiansinsport.org.uk/resources/what-does-the-bible-say-about-sport/
Sounds like one big party. Was anyone playing Goon of Fortune?
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 5:14 pm
Rugby League and Jesus
I tend to agree but i do find it amusing.
To’O was once asked what the prayer circle prayed about after a match. The answer was that they thanked Lord Jesus for the success of Nathan Cleary’s double pump and flick pass which led to the winning try.
I never knew that Lord Jesus had such intimate knowledge of rugby league tactics.
The one good thing is that the number of pre-season atrocities seems to have lessened in the last few years.
=================================================
Has heaven code swapped from Union to League?.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 5:17 pm
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/katy-perry-performed-at-lavish-mansion-party-but-the-pm-just-wanted-to-talk-jobs-20240225-p5f7lq.html
Whose going to be first to defend this? Cmon Steve777 have a go?
—————
How the conversation went.
Pratt: Hi Albo thanks for coming
Albo: Hey thanks for the invite nice place you have
Pratt: Help yourself to a drink
Albo: Hey want to talk about business
Pratt: Yeah its good Katy will be on soon
Albo: Yeah she kissed a woman and liked it
hahaha
In other news:
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/24/antarctica-sea-ice-reaches-alarming-low-for-third-year-in-a-row
(dupe)
I can just see it – senior executives from Visy , Colesworth etc dancing along to Katy Perry with dimmed lights and Albo coming up to them “excuse me what are you doing about jobs?”
The irony is that it’s these hyper-zealous religious hand wringers who complain about LGBTQ people ‘flouting’ their lifestyle (as if simply living your life out and proud is foisting it onto others), yet they are the first to ram their religion down the throats of literally everybody by bringing the unwarranted judgement.
Whatever happened to the sanctity of the confessional? Let’s go back to that. Private, and bloody silent!
Regarding the leadership, Dutton is safe because he is doing exactly what his base, funders and party room colleagues want. Those who see through his tactics, whichever way they vote, won’t be persuaded. Those disgusted at his tactics would never vote Liberal anyway.
Mb:
The word “sense” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
Sure, Trump-circa-2016 seemed the very image of the sane, intelligent statesman in comparison to Trump-circa-2024, but it was blatantly obvious to anybody paying even a little bit of attention that this man was not remotely fit for any kind of public office, let alone the presidency of the United States.
Though, I must admit, even I was shocked at just how devoid of even a shred of competence, ethics, or desire to act in the national interest he ended up bring during those four surreal years, and I was fully expecting his presidency to be a disaster.
Haley will eventually drop out and Trump will be the nominee, as has been expected since the day he cast his hat in the ring.
Then the question is whether Haley runs as a No Labels candidate – she’s been very coy when asked about this. If that happens it will damage Biden’s re-election chances. Sure she’ll take moderate Republican voters, but these people were never going to vote GOP with Trump as the candidate, but may have been persuaded to vote Democrat, as per 2020.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 5:25 pm
I can just see it – senior executives from Visy , Colesworth etc dancing along to Katy Perry with dimmed lights and Albo coming up to them “excuse me what are you doing about jobs?”
========================================================
If i was at a party i would probably stay clear of politicians and CEO’s of businesses. Mainly because i suspect they probably would discuss boring topics like was suggested above.
Even some of our stooges must be seeing this for what it is now…
Fess: “Then the question is whether Haley runs as a No Labels candidate – she’s been very coy when asked about this. If that happens it will damage Biden’s re-election chances. Sure she’ll take moderate Republican voters, but these people were never going to vote GOP with Trump as the candidate, but may have been persuaded to vote Democrat, as per 2020.”
———————————————————–
There surely would never be a better time for someone like Haley to have a crack at running as a third party candidate. She would surely draw plenty of votes away from the Republicans and also quite a few Democrats who are concerned about Biden’s longevity and Harris’s capability. She’d be able to attack Biden as being too close to the woke loony left and Trump as being too close to the MAGA loony right. And she’d most likely attract some big donors.
Personally, I’d love to see it.
Uncle Ramble Standers…
https://youtu.be/tVu6tERo7Fk
T**** needs notes to remember the name of his wife and kids. Questions are (finally) being asked in public about the guy’s mental competence.
Haley would be eyeing off 2028 because if Biden wins the republicans will have to move on from Trump.
Dutton is safe while the Coalition remains only a few points behind Labor on the TPP. But a bad result (ie. Worse than one would expect given the Liberals’ Victoria problem) in Dunkley will definitely put the pressure on him
– which may not result in any behind-the-scenes plotting, but given Dutt’s current form will probably mean more unforced errors on his part – and if the polls blow out in Labor’s favour again, then I think he’ll be in trouble.
Yes, his faction has an iron grip on the party and seem to be fiercely loyal to him. But the Liberal Party is primarily in the business of winning elections. For those with the born-to-rule mindset, Labor governments are an aberration to be snuffed out as soon as possible. I don’t think think there’s any sort of two-term plan, like some have suggested. Sure, the more realistic in caucus are probably well aware that getting back into office on a single term isn’t super likely, but you better believe they will doing everything possible in their attempts to make that a reality. (After all, they came very close last time Labor was in power, and the post-referendum tightening late last year has probably got them salivating at the thought of a shock 2025 victory.)
If the National Right don’t think Dutton’s capable of fulfilling that goal, then I reckon they will begin searching for another standard bearer. People like to say that all his realistic competitors are idiots or have too much baggage or electoral poison or whatever, and maybe that’s true… but the same things are regularly said about Dutton!
Just because us left-leaning types think that, say, Angus Taylor is too much of a dipshit and too mixed up in various scandals to be an effective opposition leader, doesn’t mean the Liberal caucus thinks the same way. And, sadly, history would suggest that we would probably be wrong in that assumption too.
meher:
The No Labels mob are designed to cripple the Democrats, and this is what would happen if they had a viable candidate. The only sensible voting strategy for those Republicans and unaligned voters who don’t want to vote Trump, is to vote Democrat.
Other MB: “Haley would be eyeing off 2028 because if Biden wins the republicans will have to move on from Trump.”
She’ll be a long way back in the queue behind the likes of Matt Gaetz, Vivek Ramaswamy, Don jnr, Eric or Ivanka.
The Republican Party is on the way out in my view. An older cohort will keep voting for it reflexively, and there will be a growing group of younger true believers. But, over the next decade, I expect to see it evolve into a permanent minority party. Some power brokers will try to advance more moderate candidates into leadership roles, but the primary system works will work against that.
The same deluded group that adore Trump should be easy to get to line up behind Don jnr, or anyone else Trump strongly endorses. And on and on it will go.
the republicans will have to move on from Trump.
You know, even if he is trounced by Biden, I don’t think they will.
A sane party would have moved on from Trump after he lost the 2020 election following four years of being the absolute worst president the United States has ever had, so bad that other famous “worst presidents” like Pierce and Buchanan and Harding couldn’t even hope to compare to his legendary incompetence.
I quite honestly believe that if Trump is still alive in 2028 or 2032, he will be the Republican nominee in those elections as well. He’d probably still have a decent shot even if he’s dead.
Nicky Haley is a mainstream conservative in the Reagan-Bush mould. She has an impressive CV in diplomacy and politics. She has no probity issues that I am aware of, let alone criminal indictments. She is intelligent, presentable and articulate. She is 52 years old, married with two adult children and a mainstream Protestant.
On paper, an ideal Republican candidate for high office.
Who knows Asha re Dunkley.
My guess on the outcomes depending on swing:
Swing to Labor: Disaster for Dutton/ he could be rolled
<2% Swing: Low Level grumbling gets written off as “Victoria”
2-4% Swing: Meh result
4% swing – to 6% : Good News for Dutton, pressure on Albo
Loss of Seat ; Disaster for Albo, leadership rumblings commence.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-takes-primary-vote-lead-from-labor-for-first-time-since-election-20240225-p5f7lm.html?btis
Essential with Lib primary very high
This result (from Resolve Strategic, not Essential) is far enough off beam to raise suspicions (which is all they are) of changes in methodology from a pollster that has been well off the beaten track.
(oops, another dupe)
Will partying at Raheen with Pratt and the elite hurt Albo’s and Labor’s polling ?
Fess: “The No Labels mob are designed to cripple the Democrats, and this is what would happen if they had a viable candidate. The only sensible voting strategy for those Republicans and unaligned voters who don’t want to vote Trump, is to vote Democrat.”
That applies to No Labels in general. But Haley is perhaps a unique candidate. If she is able to get her name on the ticket in every state, she could potentially draw a large number of votes away from Trump and could even win the election.
I’d normally prefer a two candidate race. But Biden is a frail old man: the way he shuffles around doesn’t instill me with any confidence that he can make it to November, let alone campaign strongly throughout that time. And Harris is an even weaker candidate.. So perhaps Haley would be a better option for defeating Trump, which is the priority.
Agree that Nikki Haley could do very well as a third party candidate if she has the ticker to cut her ties with the Republicans.
It would still be a terrible outcome for the United States if she won, though, because while she would obviously be miles better as President than Trump (but then so would the vast majority of human beings, as well as quite a few well-trained animals), she is still deeply conservative and only seems moderate in comparison to the crackpots presently in control of the GOP.
Primary vote lead? I thought many/most other polls had LNP with a primary vote lead over Labor but Labor still ahead in 2PP? Presumably David Crowe will give us his ‘analysis’.
Mexicanbeemer @ #481 Sunday, February 25th, 2024 – 4:54 pm
And because she won’t be nominated. The RNC and most of the GOP are too frightened of T****. He’s got them. (There’s still time for the criminal trials and growing dementia to change that, but I’m not seeing it, yet.)
Confessions @ #483 Sunday, February 25th, 2024 – 4:58 pm
Or not vote at all. (Which is a weaker strategy.)
meher baba says,
That, I can see happening. Hmm. But let’s not forget that Mr T senior is on a path to jail as a pauper. The T**** mystique will break, eventually.
Primary vote lead? Meaningless. Why report on it? The 2PP is what matters. Clickbait.
I still dont think Trump or Biden end up in the WH on Jan 21.
Might be No Labels, may be divine intervention or it might be the Courts but I just dont think it will happen.
Something will break that puts an end to this crazy putative contest.
My guess is Biden goes at the Convention – it minimises the lame duck period and it allows the Convention to broker a candidate without being forced to take Kamala Harris.
As you were Steve777 its just Resolve, only 2.5 hours till Newspoll.