YouGov, from which we can expect federal polling every three weeks in future (give or take a looming seasonal furlough), had a federal poll yesterday showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, narrowing from 53-47 in a poll conducted shortly before the referendum. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 31%, the Coalition is steady on 36%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation are up to 7%. Net satisfaction ratings find both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton at minus 7%, marking a four point decline in Albanese’s case and a five point improvement in Dutton’s. Albanese nonetheless leads 48% to 34% as preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted last Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1582.
In other news, there are the following developments from the world of preselection, once again relating entirely to the Liberal Party:
• Gisele Kapterian, international trade lawyer and executive director of cloud computing firm Salesforce, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for North Sydney, notwithstanding the possibility that it might be abolished or effectively merged with a neighbouring seat as part of the looming redistribution. The latter course is the effective recommendation of the Liberal Party’s own submission to the redistribution, which proposed maintaining North Sydney as the name of a seat encompassing most of an abolished Warringah. Grahame Lynch of the North Sydney Sun reports the moderate-aligned Kapterian won a ballot over Jess Collins, conservative-aligned researcher for the Lowy Institute (also a candidate for the preselection that will be held next weekend to fill Marise Payne’s Senate vacancy), by 145 votes to 106. Other nominees were Georgia Lovell, policy manager at the NSW Department of Customer Service, and Sophie Lambert, media manager at the NSW Education Department.
• Russell Broadbent has quit the Liberal party room after losing a preselection vote for his regional Victorian seat of Monash on Sunday to Mary Aldred, Fujitsu executive and daughter of the late former Liberal MP Ken Aldred. Aldred secured a sweeping victory with 162 votes against 16 each for Broadbent and a third contender, South Gippsland mayor Nathan Hersey. An ABC report cites a Nationals source saying that party was “likely to aggressively campaign for the seat”.
• Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports a view among Liberals that Moore MP Ian Goodenough is likely to lose preselection next month to Vince Connelly, who narrowly failed to topple Goodenough after his own seat of Stirling was abolished in 2022.
• Angira Bharadwaj of News Corp reports Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley has said it would be “totally unacceptable” if Lindsay MP Melissa McIntosh succumbed to a preselection challenge from Mark Davies, Penrith councillor, factional conservative and husband of state Mulgoa MP Tanya Davies, and that “we would not let this occur”.
Poor Nog,
Prefers a safe echo chamber rather than a robust debate.
Would have been nice to see what she/it/lamppost/quenda/he defines as misinformation.
Jah,
I use Uber a lot. Beats having a third car – especially when trolleyed. More Drivers keeps prices down in peak times which reduces surge pricing and is good for consumers and therefore good for Australia.
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 1:53 pm
Boring war,
Re the size of the Federal Debt –…’
————————
A trillion dollars is a trillion dollars. First Howard and Costello pissed away Australia’s biggest mining boom since the gold rush days and THEN Morrison, Dutton, Incompetents & Co pissed away a trillion dollars. The true genius here was that they had NOTHING to show for the debt. Nothing. NFA.
This ruling was discussed on Rachel Maddow show
By Associated Press
Federal appeals court deals blow to Voting Rights Act, ruling that private plaintiffs can’t sue
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/20/2207080/-Federal-appeals-court-deals-blow-to-Voting-Rights-Act-ruling-that-private-plaintiffs-can-t-sue?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web
“A divided federal appeals court on Monday ruled that private individuals and groups such as the NAACP do not have the ability to sue under a key section of the federal Voting Rights Act, a decision voting rights advocates say could further erode protections under the landmark 1965 law.
The 2-1 decision by a panel of the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals based in St. Louis found that only the U.S. attorney general can enforce Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits discriminatory voting practices such as racially gerrymandered districts.
The majority said other federal laws, including the 1964 Civil Rights Act, make it clear when private groups can sue said but similar wording is not found in the voting law.
“When those details are missing, it is not our place to fill in the gaps, except when ‘text and structure’ require it,” U.S. Circuit Judge David R. Stras wrote for the majority in an opinion joined by Judge Raymond W. Gruender. Stras was nominated by former President Donald Trump and Gruender by former President George W. Bush.”
FUBAR says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 3:22 pm
Jah,
I use Uber a lot. Beats having a third car – especially when trolleyed. More Drivers keeps prices down in peak times which reduces surge pricing and is good for consumers and therefore good for Australia
Nah just another unskilled bloke who’s gonna cancel and drive up the surge. not unlike how coming here with no skills and driving up the cost of housing is a bad thing for Australia.
The only sectors who benefit from the immigration Ponzi scheme are universities and big business, neither of which deal with the downsides like the rest of us.
the multiculturalism scam has been a failure in the west. reminder that we are in a per capita recession, only the imported greater fools are keeping gdp line going up
“The PM has presided over 12 interest rate rises, taken 18 overseas trips, lost a referendum and seen his approvals plummet all in his first 18 months in office. It’s quite the record. The Melbourne Cup Day rate rise was the rise that may well stop this nation. Cost of living is a harsh reality for millions of Australians when mortgage costs, rents, power bills, fuel and food all cost not more, but a lot more. It’s certainly not easy under Albanese.”
And what the fuck would Morrison have done differently apart from the referendum? He hadnt a single idea let alone a policy that he took to the last election. Dutton is going to run on exactly the same non agenda this time around too.
@steve davis
Exactly, but the thing is for all of the Liberals and Newscorp rhetoric the Liberals largely make things worse with no accountability. For all Tony Abbott’s and Newscorp complaining about debt under Rudd and Gillard governments. Abbott exceeded Labor’s debt in only one term under his government, Turnbull doubled the debt, and then Morrison finished leaving a debt five times the amount of Labor’s under the Liberals. So much for ‘we need to live within our means’.
The scam isn’t multiculturalism, it is trickle down and unregulated exploitative capitalism.
It is hard to find a better example for what is wrong in the rich coloniser world than Uber.
The drivers on the other hand seem on the whole extraordinarily skilled, and doing our economy a disservice wasting their time driving.
But now we are a country that embraces and defends crimes against humanity and love collective punishment I will say that all Sydney taxi drivers deserve 5 – 10 years maximum security prison time. A more dishonest cohort you’d have trouble finding anywhere in the world.
Avoiding a recession is now defined as “pissing away”. That deserves a Nobel Prize in Economics for resetting the parameters for protecting an economy from recession using good old fashioned Keynesian pump priming.
Fubar
Weather is chaotic, climate is not. You may need to return to about year 10 high school.
Ven,
Your sacrifice in exposing yourself to that dirge of a show is appreciated by all. Do you get counseling?
Did she cry again?
WeWantPaul says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 3:37 pm
The scam isn’t multiculturalism, it is trickle down and unregulated exploitative capitalism
The scam is that we are told that multiculturalism is good for our society and that we must accept millions of foreigners pouring in who do not assimilate.
And now your kids can’t afford to buy a home.
Going pretty well actually. I checked and my power bill for the past year was $140 cheaper than it was last year. If they keep this up then it’ll be easily a fulfilled promise.
And furthermore that’s not even counting the most welcome $250 power saving bonus courtesy of the Victorian Labor state government.
“The scam is that we are told that multiculturalism is good for our society and that we must accept millions of foreigners pouring in who do not assimilate.
And now your kids can’t afford to buy a home.”
Thanks for the reminder of why I significantly reduced posting here, that stuff is just garbage you should be ashamed of yourself, but I understand probably one of the very few types of affirmatively protected speech here.
Of course fubar you never experience a recession or the risk of one when u are a defined benefit pension multi millionaire .
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 3:24 pm
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 1:53 pm
Re the size of the Federal Debt –…’
————————
A trillion dollars is a trillion dollars. First Howard and Costello pissed away Australia’s biggest mining boom since the gold rush days and THEN Morrison, Dutton, Incompetents & Co pissed away a trillion dollars. The true genius here was that they had NOTHING to show for the debt. Nothing. NFA.
Well, not quite nothing. Along with the trillion dollar debt the Coalition left a mess of defence projects, a mass of unfunded infrastructure announcements and national education run down. Then health care was down the tubes. Wages were systematically run down. Work conditions ditto. Billions in super stolen by the bosses. Of course, under the Coalition climate action non-existent. Then there was Scomo Shark One’s $20 billion trade mess. The APS was gutted. Government nuts and bolts were run by a corrupt and money-addled Big Four. There was corruption from Coalition arsehole to breakfast table. Government programs were illegal. Indefinite detention was illegal. Women were treated like second class citizens. The ADF was allowed to run riot in Afghanistan. Mates were being promoted because they were mates. Half a dozen of the Coalition are being investigated by the NACC. It should be more.
More bludger gold from the Bot Bot:
“ Looks like more rate rises coming – what a shame the rba doesn’t see it the same way as noted economist PB Andy.”
_____
No L’arse – it’s not a case of the Reserve Bank vs. me. Even though that ‘narrative’ suits your blatant trolling and … straight up lies.
Many many economists and economic commentators have been making precisely the same point as moi. As you well know.
Boerwar.
Hear, hear!!
The last election was decided by the extremely effective vicious character assassination of Morrison.
Absolute crap. Morrison, and his character, or lack of it, were his own worst enemy. He pretty much lost the election all on his own. Though he was helped in that endeavour by some pretty seedy characters on the Coalition side.
FUBAR, don’t think you can memory hole the egregious behaviour of 10 years of Coalition government and rewrite history that easily. Who are you? Scott Morrison?
FUBAR @ #912 Tuesday, November 21st, 2023 – 12:57 pm
Labor have done pretty well so far cutting out Coalition pork and handouts to Liberal mates. Got them back into Surplus in one year. 😐
Character assassination of Scott Morrison would have been entirely unnecessary.
Kirs
ABC Fact checking would disagree – but you know how crap they are. Apparently
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-19/promise-check-cut-power-bills-by-275-dollars/101791146
FUBAR @ #924 Tuesday, November 21st, 2023 – 1:28 pm
Are you really that ignorant about the effects humans have on the Climate, or just willfully so?
C@t,
Stop posting misinformation.
“ The nation’s far better than expected revenue predictions are largely because of an enormous jump in tax receipts from both companies and individuals, and ongoing high commodity prices in mining, with oil and gas identified as a key driver.”
Nothing to do with any ALP policies.
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/how-wa-s-resource-riches-helped-deliver-the-first-budget-surplus-in-15-years-20230509-p5d725.html
A drover’s dog could have got that surplus.
Steve777 @ #973 Tuesday, November 21st, 2023 – 4:03 pm
Yes, he was the best advocate for his lack of character.
Morrison assassinated his own character multiple times. Best and lastly with his multiple ministries, but also his hectoring tone, seeming disinterest in both the fires and with the covid pandemic.
Which character was assassinated?
Scott Morrison the Prime Minister? Or Scott Morrison the Minister for Health? Or Treasurer? Or Home Affairs? Or Finance? Or Industry, Science, Energy and Resources?
It gets confusing, you know.
Edit: nath beat me to it 🙂
Let’s face it. Dutton is Morrison’s sock puppet.
Well, I have the numbers for myself and in my case, they’re keeping their promise with me, so I’m content with having an extra $390 at the minimum in my bank thanks to Labor being in power both State and Federally.
I’m tempted to spend it on a nice trip on the Overland to visit family in Adelaide at some point in the new year.
sub,
You know the the 60.06% who voted No in the Referendum? No?
Hi!
FUBAR says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 4:08 pm
C@t,
Stop posting misinformation.
“ The nation’s far better than expected revenue predictions are largely because of an enormous jump in tax receipts from both companies and individuals, and ongoing high commodity prices in mining, with oil and gas identified as a key driver.”
Nothing to do with any ALP policies.
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/how-wa-s-resource-riches-helped-deliver-the-first-budget-surplus-in-15-years-20230509-p5d725.html
A drover’s dog could have got that surplus.
______________
I am curious what you think of Howard and Costello and their economic credentials then 😉
S. Simpson says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 11:00 am
————————
Ukraine should return Crimea to Russia? But Russia willingly transferred Crimea to Ukraine as part of a Supreme Soviet Decree in 1954. I can’t imagine how many nations would be “giving back” large tracts of land or even nations to countries and under what auspices if this were some sort of precedent. Not to mention our own continent to FN people’s or much of Israel to the Palestinians.
The issue here is that Russia unilaterally attacked Ukraine without reason which is a contravention of international law and this behaviour must never be rewarded. If Putin is given Crimea or any other land, he’ll undoubtedly take more elsewhere, it’s the nature of despots.
Lars,
If you are referring to Federal Politicians being on Defined Benefit Pensions – given they stopped being available to members entering Federal Parliament from 2004 – there aren’t many left in Parliament these days and hasn’t been for many years.
FUBAR @ #976 Tuesday, November 21st, 2023 – 4:08 pm
Ah, so you ARE Compact Crank? The reference to WAToday gives you away. There is no other West Australian poster to PB that sounds off that way.
In reference to your Liberal Party talking point about the Surplus, it’s not an either or thing. The Surplus was created by the Labor federal government off the back of a suite of measures to bring the Budget back into shape.
Here’s an objective analysis, not one by a Liberal Party sympathetic media outlet:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/09/six-budget-2023-graphs-explain-surplus-australia-federal-may-labor-predictions-tax-revenue-cost-of-living-inflation-wages-unemployment-jobseeker-welfare
So, what you said, PLUS not carrying through with Coalition government policies of letting in plane loads of foreigners to take the jobs of Australians and which served to suppress wage growth. So, more Australians with jobs, more Income Tax paid.
AND no more colour-coded spread sheets of pork and letting companies get away with 10s of Billions of JobKeeper.
nath @ #978 Tuesday, November 21st, 2023 – 4:09 pm
You left out Morrison’s performative concern about the Lismore flood victims, whilst directing money away from them and to a Nationals’ seat next door.
I wonder if the former Home Affairs Minister, that would be Peter Dutton, knew about THIS before his performative outrage sesh in parliament last week:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/21/indefinite-detention-coalition-had-already-released-5-of-93-impacted-by-high-court-decision-document-reveals
Oopsie. 😳 😐
Sir Henry Parkes 11:58 am
“ So even on an issue as existential as climate change, progressive governments have to take the people with them, otherwise little or nothing gets done.”
——————
Agreed, on climate change and a variety of other issues. History shows us that Australians are not necessarily people of conviction nor firm belief, we blow with the winds. We’re engaged when things are good but regress when things get a little tough. The bottom line (financially) is our line in the sand. Neither science nor fact are enough to sway us. Better to get a little done under Labor than to get nothing done or worse under the Coalition.
Is the jump in net migration intended to be baked in as a future policy setting or is it just offsetting some of the declines around COVID? If it is intended to be permanent, then someone at the Fed Govt needs to work on some serious reforms for state funding given that it is the States that will have to service the increase.
Griff,
Howard and Costello paid off the nation’s debt and introduced the GST. Significant economic outcomes. It would have been easy for them to not pay off debt and instead try and buy another election but they gave Rudd the fiscal room to avoid a recession in the GFC instead – noting that he was saved from a recession by one shipment of coal (which is quite funny given the Ruddster’s “greatest moral challenge of our time” bollocks). While not perfect, it was pretty damn good. Yes, they were also beneficiaries of the positive economic winds. The missed the opportunity to bring in a flat income tax and reduce company tax rates all to 20%, but I’m happy to cut them some slack. I also credit Hawke/Keating for the introduction of compulsory super and floating the AUD in the face of massive opposition from the Unions and the left (economic illiterates).
C@t WTF?
FUBAR says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 4:36 pm
Griff,
Howard and Costello paid off the nation’s debt and introduced the GST. Significant economic outcomes. It would have been easy for them to not pay off debt and instead try and buy another election but they gave Rudd the fiscal room to avoid a recession in the GFC instead – noting that he was saved from a recession by one shipment of coal (which is quite funny given the Ruddster’s “greatest moral challenge of our time” bollocks). While not perfect, it was pretty damn good. Yes, they were also beneficiaries of the positive economic winds. The missed the opportunity to bring in a flat income tax and reduce company tax rates all to 20%, but I’m happy to cut them some slack. I also credit Hawke/Keating for the introduction of compulsory super and floating the AUD in the face of massive opposition from the Unions and the left (economic illiterates).
__________________
Based on your preferences, you should be happy with the cap placed on super tax concessions above $3 million by the current government then?
The fact that State Governments are paying out power supplements demonstrates how f%&$ed up the massive increases in costs caused by the deliberate policy vandalism to a system that previously provided abundant cheap reliable power is.
skill issue for sh*th*l* eastern states
Lars is talking about the public service defined benefit superannuants.
Many of whom are still accruing benefit.
For the commonwealth the unfunded liability of these benefits will peak at $183 billion in 2034 and reduce to $62 billion in 2060.
These lotus eaters will get paid no matter any changes in the market, environment or economy and the Commonwealth will sell assets rather than reform, indeed it has already sold a third of Telstra.
Many on PB are on defined benefits and they like to talk about the injustice of the SMSF tax benefits
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 4:56 pm
Lars is talking about the public service defined benefit superannuants.
Many of whom are still accruing benefit.
For the commonwealth the unfunded liability of these benefits will peak at $183 billion in 2034 and reduce to $62 billion in 2060.
These lotus eaters will get paid not matter any changes in the market, environment or economy and the Commonwealth will sell assets rather than reform, indeed it has already sold a third of Telstra.
Many on PB are on defined benefits and they like to talk about the injustice of the SMSF tax benefits
_____________
And some on PB are not on defined benefits and they like to talk about the injustice of the SMSF tax benefits 😉
Last I checked, profit-driven power companies operating in states with a privatized electricity grid seem to be wanting to close down their ageing coal power plants without replacing them.
That seems rather odd of them to do so. I thought that coal power was meant to be the cheapest option. Why wouldn’t they want to build brand spanking new coal chugging power plants that would last for another 50 years providing lovely cheap electricity and they can rake in the dough?
Could it perhaps maybe be that coal isn’t actually as cheap as they say?
Also OC the $3m super cap griff refers to is unlikely to capture defined benefit pensions – similar attempts to apply super tax to db have been seen off in the courts in the past and govts have decided it was all too hard after a while.
griff
Yes. They didn’t go far enough. Keep the cap and any assets above the cap get rolled out of super – without incurring CGT.
They should also roll back the Howard era changes that made all income from superannuation tax-free. It should revert to the old system of getting a 15% tax rebate with the taxable income from the pension fund. That 15% rebate plus the Senior Aged Person Tax Offset Rebate meant a couple could earn $100,000 tax free before income tax kicked in – more than generous enough.
I also think that your superannuation pension should be an Age Expectancy Pension with the annual minimum pension rising regularly. The current Allocated Pension minimums are far too low. If you don’t want to spend what comes out then put it in the bank or invest it outside the super system. The idea that your superannuation is a legacy asset to be retained to be passed on to your estate is not the reason why superannuation was created.
I also believe that your house should be assessable for the Assets Test for the Aged Pension. Probably have a threshold above which the assets are added. If your house value is such that you lose your Aged Pension then the asset can support a reverse mortgage.
Howard and Costello pissed away the biggest mining boom since the goldrush.
Instead of taxing that, they introduced a regressive GST.
Oh, who could forget the ‘breaking the chains’ ads that went with that monstrous sleight of hand.
There were times during the Howard/Costello monstrosity that input taxes to super was 30% and withdrawal tax was 15%.
The real bastardy of Howard, though, was the way he stole Hanson’s racism as his vision splendid. Couple that with his climate action wreckage and we have the worst prime minister Australia has had since Federation.