YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

A new federal poll finds Labor clinging to the barest of leads, and Anthony Albanese no longer outpointing Peter Dutton on net satisfaction.

YouGov, from which we can expect federal polling every three weeks in future (give or take a looming seasonal furlough), had a federal poll yesterday showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, narrowing from 53-47 in a poll conducted shortly before the referendum. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 31%, the Coalition is steady on 36%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation are up to 7%. Net satisfaction ratings find both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton at minus 7%, marking a four point decline in Albanese’s case and a five point improvement in Dutton’s. Albanese nonetheless leads 48% to 34% as preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted last Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1582.

In other news, there are the following developments from the world of preselection, once again relating entirely to the Liberal Party:

• Gisele Kapterian, international trade lawyer and executive director of cloud computing firm Salesforce, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for North Sydney, notwithstanding the possibility that it might be abolished or effectively merged with a neighbouring seat as part of the looming redistribution. The latter course is the effective recommendation of the Liberal Party’s own submission to the redistribution, which proposed maintaining North Sydney as the name of a seat encompassing most of an abolished Warringah. Grahame Lynch of the North Sydney Sun reports the moderate-aligned Kapterian won a ballot over Jess Collins, conservative-aligned researcher for the Lowy Institute (also a candidate for the preselection that will be held next weekend to fill Marise Payne’s Senate vacancy), by 145 votes to 106. Other nominees were Georgia Lovell, policy manager at the NSW Department of Customer Service, and Sophie Lambert, media manager at the NSW Education Department.

• Russell Broadbent has quit the Liberal party room after losing a preselection vote for his regional Victorian seat of Monash on Sunday to Mary Aldred, Fujitsu executive and daughter of the late former Liberal MP Ken Aldred. Aldred secured a sweeping victory with 162 votes against 16 each for Broadbent and a third contender, South Gippsland mayor Nathan Hersey. An ABC report cites a Nationals source saying that party was “likely to aggressively campaign for the seat”.

Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports a view among Liberals that Moore MP Ian Goodenough is likely to lose preselection next month to Vince Connelly, who narrowly failed to topple Goodenough after his own seat of Stirling was abolished in 2022.

• Angira Bharadwaj of News Corp reports Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley has said it would be “totally unacceptable” if Lindsay MP Melissa McIntosh succumbed to a preselection challenge from Mark Davies, Penrith councillor, factional conservative and husband of state Mulgoa MP Tanya Davies, and that “we would not let this occur”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,100 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. kirs

    The bias against cheap abundant coal is caused by misguided government policies. The bias against this form of energy could easily be fixed by legislating to protect/indemnify all coal fired power stations from any future CO2 taxes.

    The other change that has to be made to is to force all intermittent unreliable sources of power such as wind and solar to not be allowed to bid into the electricity markets unless they have paid for guaranteed 100% back up.

  2. My power bill is up 26%. House and car insurance are up over an additional 60%. Trying to find a cheap car as my daughter’s first car (and insurance)… impossible. Water too.

    Telstra have put our phone plan up by $5 on internet, $5 on mobile phones x 2. It’s an extra $15 per month but it all adds up.

    Petrol is nowhere near the <$1.80 it used to be. Our weekly (Saturday) shop that was $150pw last year is now $212pw (and no, we don't buy the good stuff). We haven't gone to a movie this year, nor eaten out, nor bought a six pack, nor gone out for a picnic or a long drive… TOO EXPENSIVE!!!

    You really think "we the people" care what Rudd or Abbott or Scomo did? That's just cheap political posturing that doesn't fix anyone's lives. I voted for a Libor/Greens candidate to see Albo elected PM and a "fair" Senate.

    Never again, on both counts.

  3. Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison did not even have a mining boom to piss away.
    They just went ahead and pissed it all away anyway.
    One trillion dollars.
    The two Big Lies that went with that?
    Remember the debt truck?
    Remember (chortle, nudge, nudge, wink, wink) ‘back in black!’
    Except the interest bill on their trillion dollar debt is extremely high.

  4. @Boerwar – The real bastardy of Howard, though, was the way he stole Hanson’s racism as his vision splendid. Couple that with his climate action wreckage and we have the worst prime minister Australia has had since Federation.

    If Dutton became PM he’d be way worse than Howard. He’d make Hendrik Frensch Verwoerd and John Vorster look mainstream.

  5. The other point about the 3m on super is a lot of accountancy firms have already found”solutions” about how you keep the super benefits and don’t pay the tax.

    It’s not that the idea was bad it’s that the govt was so fearful of anything controversial it will probably raise 3/5 of sweet f a.

    We may be like the US here too in the sense that people over a certain income are post tax and govt funds itself with higher and higher borrowings.

    Certainly I’m aware of a few well off people who have laughed about the impact of the 3m super tax. Still it was a headline.

  6. There is reason to believe that the Russian counter-offensive in the Avdiivka region over the past eight weeks has been repelled by Ukraine. Although Russia has made some small advances, it has been at the cost of many thousands both KIA and WIA in addition to very significant armoured, artillery, air defence and aviation resources. The loss ratio of Russian personnel and equipment has exceeded established historical statistics when in attack whilst the loss ratio of Ukrainian forces has been as expected in Defence.

    My assessment of the reasons for the failure of this counter-offensive are twofold. The first reason is that successful Ukrainian actions on the east side of the Dnipro river forced Russia to redeploy much needed forces (2-3 brigades) from the Donetsk region. These forces were essential if Russia was to be successful in taking Avdiivka. The second reason is that as expected, though delayed, the typical Winter weather in this region has settled in rendering armoured and transport movement very difficult for attacking Russian forces.

    The weather of course will now have an equal effect on both sides diminishing the volume and intensity of attacks. Both sides will now resort to improving defensive positions and launching missile and drone attacks against key enemy infrastructure and military assets. Unsurprisingly, the improvement of defensive positions over coming months only serves to lengthen the war by making it more difficult for each side to achieve its goals militarily. The one resource Ukraine really lacks that cannot/will not be supplied by NATO is soldiers, a resource of which Russia has comparatively unlimited numbers unless the Russian population revolts against Putin.

  7. Poor Melb,

    Pining for another time. Why are you so racist?

    Exactly what policy has anything to do with either of the individuals you referred to?

    Just one.

    I can wait.

  8. FUBAR says:
    Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 2:58 pm

    Don’t worry – Snow Hydro 2.0 will lower power prices! Apparently. (Just ignore the additional transmission costs that weren’t included, oh, and the construction cost blow outs – they don’t matter – we know this from the Andrews and McGowan Governments’ management of infrastructure projects.)

    I was Turnbull that started that project, but it was not his fault they started digging before the slurry system was in place.

    FUBAR says:
    Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 2:47 pm


    You’re sure the Minister directed that activity to occur?

    It was a “operational matter”

  9. FUBAR
    The coal fired power stations are at their end of life. No one has been building new ones because they are no longer commercially viable. Bullshit isn’t going to change that.

  10. fred

    So, no evidence of Ministerial involvement at all in Operation Fortitude. Thanks

    Why do you guys keep posting misinformation? The ALP will be wanting to close down the site with their new misinformation legislation.

    Turnbull should have joined the ALP from the start. WAFTAM. Oxygen thief.

  11. fred,

    The lack of investment in existing and new coal fired power stations is due to the legislative and sovereign risk introduced by the Ecofascists. Remove that risk and they are highly competitive.

  12. Oh, I thought there was a reliable state NSW Coalition government for the past 12 years backed by a Federal Coalition government for 9 of those. They can hardly be accused of being Ecofascists. Surely they could have opened a new Coal electricity plant in that time to replace the one at Liddell with favourable governments?

  13. FUBAR @ Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 3:37 pm:

    “Avoiding a recession is now defined as “pissing away”. That deserves a Nobel Prize in Economics for resetting the parameters for protecting an economy from recession using good old fashioned Keynesian pump priming.”

    FUBAR, I take it you are referring to the conga-line of Coalition leaders since 2008, from Turnbull to Abbott to Turnbull again to Morrison, who all decried the ‘waste’, ‘cash splashes’ and so on of the Rudd-Swan Labor Government’s decisive actions to save us from the Great Recession? Or, as we here Down Under call it because we avoided a recession, the Global Financial Crisis?

  14. ‘MelbourneMammoth says:
    Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 5:10 pm

    @Boerwar – The real bastardy of Howard, though, was the way he stole Hanson’s racism as his vision splendid. Couple that with his climate action wreckage and we have the worst prime minister Australia has had since Federation.

    If Dutton became PM he’d be way worse than Howard. He’d make Hendrik Frensch Verwoerd and John Vorster look mainstream.’
    Perhaps both the gist and two bridges too far.

  15. Indeed.
    It is criminal that people owner/occupying $4M houses are being paid welfare.
    Some forced down-sizing would help with the housing crisis

  16. Macarthur,

    So, it’s ok for ALP-Ecofascists to disagree with how the LNP spent money in the greatest economic crisis since WWII:

    “According to World Bank forecasts, the global economy will shrink by 5.2% this year.1 That would represent the deepest recession since the Second World War, with the largest fraction of economies experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870, the World Bank says in its June 2020 Global Economic Prospects.”

    BUT!!!! criticism of the spending choices made by Rudd-Swan are illegitimate because they are beyond reproach (until Julia knifed him and then meh!). Apparently.

  17. Oakshott

    There’s no need to force a downsize if they do not wish to move. There are currently incentives to do so. Not sure how well they are working. But, for someone asset rich but income poor, a reverse mortgage on a $4 million house is a great idea. 1% a year for 20 years is $40,000k a year tax-free – pretty handy.

  18. wranslide @ #990 Tuesday, November 21st, 2023 – 4:34 pm

    Is the jump in net migration intended to be baked in as a future policy setting or is it just offsetting some of the declines around COVID? If it is intended to be permanent, then someone at the Fed Govt needs to work on some serious reforms for state funding given that it is the States that will have to service the increase.

    No, it is not meant to be permanent. Yes, they are working on reforms which will modernise and regularise immigration numbers within transparent parameters.

  19. There are also changes to how super will be assessed for Aged Pension determination.

    The introduction of the Retirement Income Covenant. First proposed in 2018 and finally coming into force in July 2022, it requires trustees of super funds to consider the needs and preferences of members and ensure retirees have greater choice in how they withdraw their super benefits in retirement.

    This has seen the creation of Lifetime Pensions. As the Lifetime Pension purchase amount is assessed for the Age Pension assets test at 60% of the purchase price, this will result in a lower assessable asset value.

    In other words many people who would not of qualified for the Aged Pension will now be able to do so as their super , if converted to a lifetime pension in the future, will make it easier to get a government Pension.

    I assume this will have a budget impact

  20. Thomo – the gift that keep on giving. Wasn’t it wonderful when Julia used to rely on his support to retain her power, but didn’t. Highly ethical behaviour. Apparently.

  21. OC

    As I’ve pointed out before, there are only 2 types of people. Those with defined benefit pensions, and those without.

    And for Lars, actually having a defined benefit pension limits the $3m+ super rort significantly. From a few years back, the Liberal government capped most super accumulations to $1.6m – since indexed.

    This matter naught to Big Gina and crew who accumulated $100m plus with the help of creative accounting. Not so the poor suffering defined benefit people – who were slugged with a 16X multiple of whatever their annual income was. And this insult is still in place.

    Finally, the economic impact of Costello’s zero tax on super, and no limits on withdrawals, for the over 65s has brought us to this place in time. Cashed up Boomers letting it rip..

  22. FUBAR says:
    Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 6:06 pm

    “Green” Hydrogen uneconomical. Who knew? Geniuses.

    How many of these ponzi schemes do we need to see collapse before wising up?
    Do you think solar and wind are ponzi schemes?

  23. In terms of the intergenerational equity issue in terms of people on tax free super payments (particularly defined benefit pensions) who already own their own homes, etc., etc.

    One idea I have had is that the government could determine that its tax expenditure (relative to what they would have paid through income tax on ordinary income) on an individual’s tax free superannuation pension/withdrawal from an accumulation scheme is repayable out their estate when they die.

    Clearly it’s coming close to death duties, and would therefore be controversial. But it is arguable that the tax-free status of this massive and growing proportion of national income is unsustainable in the longer term. Requiring retirees to pay tax on their current income would be unfair, given that many will have retired on the basis of their estimate of the amount of money they would have to live on for the rest of their lives. But a case could be made that there’s no good reason for their heirs to benefit indirectly from these generous arrangements.

    The proposal might be sellable if the money raised could clearly be shown as going into policies to make housing more affordable for young home buyers (eg, it could fund something like the Singapore housing construction scheme).

    I’m dreaming, I know.

  24. ‘Ecofascists’. Lol.

    ‘No such thing as Climate Change’. ‘Let’s crank up more Coal Fired Power Stations’. ‘Let’s build Nuclear Power Stations.’ No need to tell me who the real Neo Fascists are. It’s this guy and his mates on the Far Right trying to force their antiquated systems back onto the population. And then we have this bit off evidence-free braggadocio:

    The lack of investment in existing and new coal fired power stations is due to the legislative and sovereign risk introduced by the Ecofascists. Remove that risk and they are highly competitive.

    Take away government subsidies that would be needed to build one these days, as private industry refuse to touch them with a barge pole, and what you get is the opposite of a ‘highly competitive’ energy source.

    But don’t tell FUBAR, he’s on a roll with his evidence-free Reactionary Conservative assertions as fact. 😆

  25. CAPT Moon,

    I do not believe that it will be a significant impact on the Budget. Australian superannuants generally are not that keen on locking away their assets in a product like the new Lifetime Income products. Annuities have been available for a long time and are not very popular (I know that they have different characteristics but to the average punter they will appear very similar) . That said I am interested to see how popular they become but expect that Allocated Pensions will likely remain the predominant product in the pension market.

  26. FUBARsays:
    Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 5:23 pm

    So, no evidence of Ministerial involvement at all in Operation Fortitude. Thanks

    Just like the ministers were following public service advice for robodebt?

  27. FUBAR, I’m just an equal opportunity Keynesian trying to get by in a barren neo-liberal wasteland of economic turgidity. Time for the Australian public to have its ‘surplus always good!’ trance broken, which means the ones who normally bleat such one-dimensional fiscal rectitude purity tests as a club with which to beat Labor senseless no matter what to drop their hypocritical and mindless cant whenever Labor announces anything that might cost some money.

  28. Oh if only Australian energy policy could turn away from increasingly investment-worthy renewable energy projects that even appeal to private corporate electricity giants and back to Captain Planet villains laughing gutturally in open air champagne events when they open up waste pipes of raw poison into delicate environments. That’s what this country needs.

  29. Holden Hilbilly: “Meher Baba: Defined benefit pensions are taxable. Only non indexed portion (bought out of their own lump sum) are not.”

    I only have a very small defined benefit pension (a legacy of two divorces), but my understanding was that the first $100k or so per annum (ie 1/16 of the cap on accumulation accounts) was tax free for people over 60.

  30. nath

    Depends on how you define a ponzi scheme. Under the traditional pure definition of a ponzi scheme – no.

    But, these days we are allowed to make up new definitions – such as men can have babies and breastfeed – so, on the basis of using a modified definition of a Ponzi scheme to now rely on subsidies and a biased bidding market to make the investment profitable – yes.

  31. So will Tudge’s effort to set up a media event for an agent of foreign influence be referred to the NACC? Were Tudge’s taxpayer-funded staff involved in this effort?
    Tudge and Dutton have questions to answer.

  32. meher

    Don’t discount the Singaporean model of linking home ownership with superannuation. What has been proposed/tried in Australia in that field to date has been amateur hour. Developing a system similar to the Singaporean one is well worth pursuing. The only problem on this site would be getting over the hatred of Lee Kuan Yew.

  33. Meher Baba
    Your suggestion would result in a mass outbreak of the Australian tradition of “Pissing it up against a wall”. Why would the soon to be departed leave anything over if the government was going to get it (I assume the family home is exempt). They would follow the philosophy of the late, great Kerry Packer “why would I give anything to the government, you would only waste it”

  34. Macarthur,

    Only the impotent are pure and so, not wishing to be impotent, I do not wish for Monetarism to be the dominant policy. That said, I firmly believe that the sole role of the RBA should be managing domestic inflation because inflation is a cancer for society, much like identity politics. So, if we must also rely on fiscal policy then let it be prudent but restrained – an affordable social welfare safety net and Defence of the nation being the focus. Let markets operate efficiently and effectively. The lower the taxes the better. We are currently over-taxed and over-regulated.

  35. The PM has presided over 12 interest rate rises

    Odd to see the PM blamed for that, rather than the RBA which is 1) actually in charge of interest rate rises, and which 2) quite oddly decided to go on the rate-hike warpath only after it became abundantly clear that the Coalition would not be supplying the next PM.

    But it’s not like he was nominated by Morrison in 2016, or like the RBA under his watch issued virtually no rate rises and several rate cuts the entire time a Liberal remained as PM, right? Oh, wait.

  36. Oakshot

    There’s already death taxes on taxable superannuation death benefits for non-dependent beneficiaries. Most Australians are blissfully unaware until they get the rude shock of the ATO hitting them up for 15% (sometimes 30% for those with untaxed funds) of the death benefit from mum or dad’s super.

  37. FUBAR @ 5:06 PM.

    We have no choice but to use coal and gas for the time being, at least a decade, probably two. We can’t transition to renewables overnight but transition we must. The use of coal and gas must cease by the 2040s at latest.

    Bottom line is, we should be shutting down nearly all coal mining within 20 years.

    Fair transition is a must for coal and gas industry workers.
    Coal and gas industry investors can get stuffed.

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