YouGov, from which we can expect federal polling every three weeks in future (give or take a looming seasonal furlough), had a federal poll yesterday showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, narrowing from 53-47 in a poll conducted shortly before the referendum. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 31%, the Coalition is steady on 36%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation are up to 7%. Net satisfaction ratings find both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton at minus 7%, marking a four point decline in Albanese’s case and a five point improvement in Dutton’s. Albanese nonetheless leads 48% to 34% as preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted last Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1582.
In other news, there are the following developments from the world of preselection, once again relating entirely to the Liberal Party:
• Gisele Kapterian, international trade lawyer and executive director of cloud computing firm Salesforce, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for North Sydney, notwithstanding the possibility that it might be abolished or effectively merged with a neighbouring seat as part of the looming redistribution. The latter course is the effective recommendation of the Liberal Party’s own submission to the redistribution, which proposed maintaining North Sydney as the name of a seat encompassing most of an abolished Warringah. Grahame Lynch of the North Sydney Sun reports the moderate-aligned Kapterian won a ballot over Jess Collins, conservative-aligned researcher for the Lowy Institute (also a candidate for the preselection that will be held next weekend to fill Marise Payne’s Senate vacancy), by 145 votes to 106. Other nominees were Georgia Lovell, policy manager at the NSW Department of Customer Service, and Sophie Lambert, media manager at the NSW Education Department.
• Russell Broadbent has quit the Liberal party room after losing a preselection vote for his regional Victorian seat of Monash on Sunday to Mary Aldred, Fujitsu executive and daughter of the late former Liberal MP Ken Aldred. Aldred secured a sweeping victory with 162 votes against 16 each for Broadbent and a third contender, South Gippsland mayor Nathan Hersey. An ABC report cites a Nationals source saying that party was “likely to aggressively campaign for the seat”.
• Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports a view among Liberals that Moore MP Ian Goodenough is likely to lose preselection next month to Vince Connelly, who narrowly failed to topple Goodenough after his own seat of Stirling was abolished in 2022.
• Angira Bharadwaj of News Corp reports Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley has said it would be “totally unacceptable” if Lindsay MP Melissa McIntosh succumbed to a preselection challenge from Mark Davies, Penrith councillor, factional conservative and husband of state Mulgoa MP Tanya Davies, and that “we would not let this occur”.
Given your media streams probably consist of Rita Panahi snarling at Fairy Penguins for being woke, and Andrew Bolt talking about the theories of when a Mars Bar left in the sun or the fridge is too pale to be thought of as a true Mars Bar, that’s not surprising.
FUBAR @ Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 6:58 pm:
“sproc
WTF? unless you are Mr Bowe – go f%^& yourself.”
=================
FUBAR, Sprocket may be alluding to the fact that there was a poster here who, not so very long ago, taxed the patience of readers here to the point where he invited near-incessant calls for his posts on a certain topic to be, at the very least, severely curtailed. It is possible that Sprocket may be thinking that what applies to one ought to apply to all. But I’m only guessing.
kirs
Can’t say I have watched that channel for years outside of flicking through it on election coverage. No need to. I prefer to watch and understand my enemies. I’m not here for a hair cut.
Meher , you could also go for something like the US , guaranteed minimum alternate tax.
So game the system as much as you like but you pay at least 25% under the alternate tax.
Would pick up the income gamers w/ defined benefits and the like – still how do you address the asset rich / income pour ?
Lots of high wealth people who apparently earn $84k per annum incl of super.
Apologies FUBAR, I understand you can fill your boots.
Lachlan Murdoch with Zelenskyy ?
Is this plausible deniability for the Murdoch re what MAGA has done on ukr funding?
It’s good to get a reminder now and then !
Sprocket,
Apology accepted.
Dear Mr Bowe,
Please delete my post at 6.58pm.
Regards
F
FUBAR @ Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 7:22 pm:
============
William, mine as well at 7:03pm. It refers to FUBAR’s.
Re Meher @6:13 PM.
A Superannuation pension or annuity payment consists in part of income, with the balance being a return of capital. In the early days income predominates, with the capital component increasing over time.
Until 2000 (?), the income portion was taxed like any other income would be, e.g. salary or bank interest, because it was… income. The split would appear in tax statements provided by the super fund.
Howard and Costello made super pensions tax free from age 60, wrecking an important part of the design of the system and blowing a big and ever-increasing hole in the revenue base.
We need to undo the Howard-Costello vandalism. I know, easier said than done.
FUBAR
You think Ministers should take the advice of the Public Service when it’s illegal? Interesting.
Lars
Australia should have a flat 20% system. Income tax and company tax all at 20%. That would make all the Trust funds irrelevant – you don’t need to minimise tax when everything is on the minimum tax rate. Trusts would then only be needed for asset protection and distribution control. Accountants would have a lot less work to do for family groups. I predict that, as per the Laffer Curve, tax receipts would increase.
As part of the transition to a 20% flat tax we should also expand the GST base to 100% of the taxable base like New Zealand basically has. And make the States all get 100%of the their GST. An increase in welfare transfers would be part of the compensation similar to when the GST was first brought in. Federal equalisation would then come out of Federal revenue – how about that for a concept!!
It’s been fun.
FUBAR @ #1045 Tuesday, November 21st, 2023 – 6:51 pm
They wouldn’t dare. 😐
>And make the States all get 100%of the their GST.
If someone in QLD buys from a NSW baed company does the money go to NSW or QLD?
>Australia should have a flat 20% system. Income tax and company tax all at 20%.
In other words those on low incomes pay more while thouse on medium and high incomes pay less. (Also I think this will result in much less income for the goverment to spend on services)
>expand the GST base to 100% of the taxable base
And the low income people who spend most of their money on necessity end up paying more again.
Thomson’s up to his old tricks again:
[‘Former federal Labor MP Craig Thomson has admitted to spending tens of thousands of dollars fraudulently claimed in COVID-19 small business grants on personal expenses including a credit card, private school fees, accommodation, a car lease and mortgage repayments.
Thomson was due to face a hearing in Sydney’s Downing Centre Local Court on Tuesday, but the 59-year-old instead pleaded guilty to two counts of dishonestly obtaining financial advantage by deception.
According to the facts, seen by the Herald, Thomson “deceitfully and dishonestly applied for and received $25,000 worth of NSW government grant money” he was not entitled to from Service NSW via online forms which “relied on self-declarations and trust”.
This figure was made up of a $10,000 Small Business COVID-19 Support Grant paid out in May 2020, and a $15,000 Small Business COVID-19 Hardship Grant he received in August 2021.
The $10,000 was traced to an $8000 mortgage repayment and $2000 put towards a personal credit card. The $15,000 was paid into an everyday account in Thomson’s name and used to cover $4000 in private school fees, $4000 towards a vehicle lease, $6000 for rental accommodation, and the remainder was spent on “personal shopping”.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/former-labor-mp-craig-thomson-pleads-guilty-to-covid-19-grant-fraud-20231121-p5elka.html
Lars:
I managed to open the AFR article on Milner that I posted this morning. And, yes, you were right about him being a ‘Labor insider’, but I think he’s now on the outer, at least in Qld.
FUBAR says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 5:25 pm
fred,
The lack of investment in existing and new coal fired power stations is due to the legislative and sovereign risk introduced by the Ecofascists. Remove that risk and they are highly competitive.
Only in your alternate reality.
Driverless cars are taking over San Fransisco – what could possibly go wrong?
Around 2 a.m. on March 19, Adam Wood, a San Francisco firefighter on duty, received a 911 call and raced to the city’s Mission neighborhood to help a male who was having a medical emergency. After loading the patient into an ambulance, a black-and-white car pulled up and blocked the path.
It was a driverless vehicle operated by Waymo, an autonomous car company that Google’s parent, Alphabet, owned. With no human driver to instruct to move out of the way, Mr. Wood spoke through a device in the car to a remote operator, who said someone would come take the vehicle away.
Instead, another autonomous Waymo car arrived and blocked the other side of the street, Mr. Wood said. The ambulance was finally able to leave after being forced to back up, and the patient, who was not in critical condition, made it to the hospital. But the self-driving cars added seven minutes to the emergency response, he said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/technology/driverless-taxis-cars-cities.html
I have just been going through some of the early posts today and good to see that some here are finally realising that the Stage 3 tax cuts are not so sacrosanct after all. Which is what I have been saying all along.
I have argued that if done properly a restructuring of them towards those who most need the assistance would not only be the right thing for a Labor government to do, but would also most likely be a vote winner for them, not a vote loser, as some here have been insisting. With the polls now weakening noticeably they could certainly do with a bit of shoring up.
I read the economic ‘news’ and I’m fairly certain most articles are being written by the interns. The economic news is not news, it’s mostly unchanged (somewhat cyclical) over decades in relation to interest rates, relative house prices, spending by generation etc. The concept of purchasing a new car before age 40 was the stuff of dreams. Share housing was de rigueur.
Young people have always had to cut back on spending as they fought for decades to pay down mortgages. Never has everyone been able to afford to buy an home, renting has unfortunately always been a way of life for a proportion of the population. Older generations always had an apparently greater capacity to spend, it’s not evidence of intergenerational theft but a function of having cleared debt.
What is unusual is a government budget surplus, low unemployment and an RBA interest rate of 4.35% recovering from once-in-a-lifetime rates close to zero. Inflation is slightly higher than the average over the past 70 years but it too will drop and for periods of our history it has been a great deal higher.
The economic reporting in the msm is pathetic, consumers deserve far better.
Crisafulli claimed today that the Public Service has his back, claiming that the LNP had learnt its lesson from Newman’s 14,000 public sector sackings in 2012, after saying their jobs were safe during the election. I’m sure that Palaszczuk won’t make this an election issue, to counter the inevitable law & order bandwagon that the LOTO will centre his campaign on.
Labor is fortunate that it posted a surplus of $12B in June, using part of this to rebate electricity (up to $1052 PA) and increase the first homeowner’s grant to $30k, ceasing in June ’24. I think the Feds should splash some cash too.
I don’t kow whether to laugh or cry at the Newspeakers on this blog earlier posting references to “ecofascists”. Goebbels would be proud.
I presume the “ecofascists” are the (usually left wing) environmental activists who protest against fossil fuel projects. Lately in at least two states peaceful protesters of the “ecofascists” have been arrested and charged during peaceful protests against the fossil fuelers, whom call the police on them.
Number of fossil fuelers harmed by “ecofascists”? Zero.
Number of “ecofascists” arrested in peaveful protest? Dozens.
So who are the real fascists?
https://twitter.com/EwinHannan/status/1726899517344358537
Breaking: Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke has struck a breakthrough deal with employers representing some of the nation’s biggest resource and energy companies, splitting business opposition to Labor’s industrial relations bill. https://t.co/yqnFKUdlq0 pic.twitter.com/fXbrQRPowE
— Ewin Hannan (@EwinHannan) November 21, 2023
non paywalled version of Ewin’s article here
https://archive.is/Cs1pd
a bit of analysis of the deal
https://archive.is/GDFrZ
“ Labor’s much-anticipated cornerstone electric vehicle policy – aimed at stoking supplies from global carmakers into Australia of zero-emissions vehicles – is set to be delayed amid internal concerns the idea lacks enough community support.
The government is understood to be concerned about the level of complexity involved in the introduction of a so-called fuel efficiency standard, which would penalise importers for selling internal combustion engines to encourage greater shipments of EVs and low-emissions vehicles.
But mounting fears of a potential cost-of-living backlash against the policy, which would drive up the price of many of the nation’s biggest selling medium-sized cars, SUVs and utes, are also weighing on deliberations.”
Very disappointing if true.
Paywalled
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-ev-policy-faces-delays-as-cost-of-living-politics-bite-20231117-p5eksm
Bystander says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 8:26 pm
I have just been going through some of the early posts today and good to see that some here are finally realising that the Stage 3 tax cuts are not so sacrosanct after all. Which is what I have been saying all along.
I have argued that if done properly a restructuring of them towards those who most need the assistance would not only be the right thing for a Labor government to do, but would also most likely be a vote winner for them, not a vote loser, as some here have been insisting. With the polls now weakening noticeably they could certainly do with a bit of shoring up.
_______________________________________
A few of us here knew they were not sacrosanct. I’ve been saying for at least a year that they will be reconfigured in the 2024 budget. It is not only more equitable but astonishingly good politics.
A few points.
1. Very few taxpayers are aware of the content of the s3 tax cuts. All they hear are that there will be tax cuts in the future. If left as they are, many low to middle income taxpayers will be bitterly disappointed by how little they get and will blame the current government, not the bastards who legislated the cuts.
2. Because most people don’t pay much attention beyond the immediate and near future, any early indication that the cuts will be reconfigured – even if the reconfigured rates are provided – will be weaponised by Dutton and the Opposition to tell people their cuts are being stolen despite most people getting more. So any changes cannot be announced until shortly before they take effect or it will be a free kick for Dutton and a disaster for Labor.
3. With bracket creep and the loss of the LMITO most low to middle income people will be desperate for a serious boost in their post-tax income. A cut greater than originally legislated will we welcomed with enthusiasm by these people who are, coincidentally, the most likely to be swinging voters in marginal electorates.
4. A late announcement accompanied by a (cough,cough) taxpayer funded advertising campaign can tell people how much more they will get in their pay-packets come July as well as how much less the Coalition were going to give them. Given the taxpayer funded nature of the ads, the Coalition won’t be mentioned of course. The Coalition will have a lot of work to do to convince these people that it’s a bad thing Labor broke a promise when they are better off. it goes without saying that News corp and the shock jocks will try though.
“ Global car giant Toyota has quietly revealed a huge jump in greenhouse gas emissions, which now stand at 575 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent last year, a figure that places it just behind Canada on a country basis and vastly more than Australia.
The car maker’s annual sustainability report for 2022 showed emissions jumped by 45 per cent year on year, as the company revised the way it accounts for emissions, forced to by a European ruling that requires auto makers to account for the lifecycle emissions from the use of the cars that they make.”
https://thedriven.io/2023/11/20/toyota-carbon-emissions-soar-now-more-than-australia-as-it-seeks-to-slow-ev-uptake/
Cronus says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 9:10 pm
“ Labor’s much-anticipated cornerstone electric vehicle policy – aimed at stoking supplies from global carmakers into Australia of zero-emissions vehicles – is set to be delayed amid internal concerns the idea lacks enough community support.
The government is understood to be concerned about the level of complexity involved in the introduction of a so-called fuel efficiency standard, which would penalise importers for selling internal combustion engines to encourage greater shipments of EVs and low-emissions vehicles.
But mounting fears of a potential cost-of-living backlash against the policy, which would drive up the price of many of the nation’s biggest selling medium-sized cars, SUVs and utes, are also weighing on deliberations.”
Very disappointing if true.
Paywalled
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-ev-policy-faces-delays-as-cost-of-living-politics-bite-20231117-p5eksm
____________________________________________
I can’t get past the paywall, but I do wonder whether the story has been seeded by automotive manufacturer lobbyists.
Australia has an aggregate oversupply of dwellings (Azize, 2023). Australia’s problem, therefore, is with the distribution of housing, not the overall supply (Azize, 2023). Increasing the generic supply of housing is not the answer to the problem of precarious housing. We do not need more luxury homes for the affluent. Instead we need dedicated federal government investment in public housing.
Australian economist Cameron Murray recommends a federal government program in which the government funds land purchases and construction of 30,000 new public homes every year on land that is currently unused or under-used for housing, and then sells these homes to first home buyers at prices that match the cost of construction (Murray, 2022). The main advantage of this program is that it would directly address the core problem: the drastic shortage of good quality public housing. Another advantage is that it would offer a public option for home ownership. There is no good reason for limiting public housing to rental housing. In Australia most households prefer the security and stability of home ownership. Expanding the federal government’s role in the provision of public housing would be the fastest and most direct way of correcting the imbalances of a housing market that currently favours investors to the detriment of first home buyers.
Murray estimates that if the buyers repaid the government for the costs of construction, the net federal spending on the program would be only $3 billion per year (Murray, 2023). This would be a small item in the context of a national government that spent $637 billion in fiscal year 2022-2023 (Commonwealth of Australia, 2023) but it would have a large and rapid impact on the supply of affordable homes. The buyers would be paying prices of approximately 50 percent of the market price. Murray estimates that Australia’s construction industry has the real resource capacity to accommodate a program of this size (Murray, 2023).
A limitation of this policy is that it would leave unscathed the absurdly generous tax advantages that property investors enjoy in Australia. Tax policy is a key driver of Australia’s house price inflation (Smith, 2015). However, this is also a strength because it means the program would provide a benefit (increased supply of public housing) without taking the political risk of removing the perks of the privileged. It would therefore be a politically astute move that helps large numbers of people in an obvious way.
Azize, M. (2023). Brutal reality: the human cost of Australia’s housing crisis. Everybody’s Home: Melbourne.
Commonwealth of Australia. (2023). Final budget outcome 2022-23. https://archive.budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/fbo/download/fbo-2022-23.pdf
Murray, C. (2022, January 18). HouseMate: a proposal to make homes 50 percent cheaper by copying Singapore. https://www.fresheconomicthinking.com/p/housemate?fbclid=IwAR0ICmHnoEb8tXAHiiRLhd_U50ctruKNL6rk9gGL9LyMT9oLm6i8Ue288fM
Murray, C. (2023, August 6). CFMEU is picking political fights with a weird tax dressed up as a housing policy. https://www.fresheconomicthinking.com/p/cfmeu-is-picking-political-fights?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Smith, W. (2015, July 20). Four tax policies Australian house prices rest on. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/four-tax-policies-australian-house-prices-rest-on-44778#:~:text=In%20Australia%2C%20real%20estate%20is,impact%20on%20supply%20is%20minimal.
Cronus
“ But mounting fears of a potential cost-of-living backlash against the policy, which would drive up the price of many of the nation’s biggest selling medium-sized cars, SUVs and utes, are also weighing on deliberations.”
Thanks. So if this is true Labor has given in to (petrol car) industry lobbying. Most new utes are $40K+, for which you can now buy an EV.
Encouraging EV sales will REDUCE the cost of living, whereas subsidising buyers of large SUVs and Utes INCREASES it thanks to their high fuel consumption.
Again, if true, the ICE car industry has realised it is in trouble and is calling in favours from Labor.
I contributed to an Engineers Australia submission to the vehicle emissions inquiry (itself a colossal stall). Like the vast majority of submissions, it supported introducing a standard. Any suggestion of a lack of community support is false.
I hope TPOF is right and this is false.
TPOF @ #1081 Tuesday, November 21st, 2023 – 9:18 pm
Could it be a part of a campaign by car dealers?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/electric-vehicles-are-hitting-a-road-block-car-dealers/ar-AA1jEfuc
It may also be the case that Labor remembers the campaign co-ordinated between the Coalition and the Automotive Industry lobby over Novated Leases.
‘Leroy says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 9:00 pm
https://twitter.com/EwinHannan/status/1726899517344358537
Breaking: Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke has struck a breakthrough deal with employers representing some of the nation’s biggest resource and energy companies, splitting business opposition to Labor’s industrial relations bill. https://t.co/yqnFKUdlq0 pic.twitter.com/fXbrQRPowE
— Ewin Hannan (@EwinHannan) November 21, 2023
non paywalled version of Ewin’s article here
https://archive.is/Cs1pd
a bit of analysis of the deal
https://archive.is/GDFrZ‘
———————–
Currently being blocked by Dutton, Bandt, Lambie and Pocock.
TPOF
“ I can’t get past the paywall, but I do wonder whether the story has been seeded by automotive manufacturer lobbyists.”
—————-
Being from the AFR I hope you’re right though equally, it may be a drip feed from the government in the event it is backsliding. A few Bludgers have voiced our concerns over recent months as the FF and ICE automotive industry have fought tooth and nail to delay this policy. An element of the government’s credibility is at stake on this issue.
‘Cronus says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 9:17 pm
“ Global car giant Toyota has quietly revealed a huge jump in greenhouse gas emissions, which now stand at 575 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent last year, a figure that places it just behind Canada on a country basis and vastly more than Australia.
….’
——————–
It has managed to do this while dragging the chain on EVs and racking up a multi-hundred billion dollar debt.
Currently being blocked by Dutton, Bandt, Lambie and Pocock.
It looks like Tony Bourke is bringing the receipts to those recalcitrants. Getting big employer groups onside will place pressure on the holdouts in the Senate.
C@T
Absolutely, dealers and mechanics as well as the legacy ICE and FF industry have much to lose from the growth of the EV industry. EVs threaten the accepted status quo on many levels and our largest auto suppliers are the companies most reticent to change (ie: Toyota , Nissan etc).
Cronus,
So what should the government do? Forge ahead and risk another debilitating campaign from a powerful lobby with demonstrated ties to the Coalition? Of course the federal government should because it’s the right thing to do, but boy, it would be a tightrope to tread and they may fall as a result.
Cat
The emissions policy will be popular with most voters. Look at how popular it was in NZ. Lots of people want cheap EVs. Labor has to fight the industry lobby group.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9258-electric-vehicle-intention-soars-june-2023
We are already running behind on stationary power generation switch to RE. IF Labor doesn’t try on transport (20% of emissions) it can kiss 43% goodbye. A major policy promise failed, and even more seats to the Greens.
Economically it is a no brainer. We are stuck vulnerable to high oil prices. At present Australia, Russia and Saudi Arabia are the only 3 countries in the OECD without an emissions policy. The joke is on us because the other 2 are oil exporters. IF Labor can’t sell this policy, time to give up political careers.
Soc,
I’m worried about an industry fear campaign in concert with the Coalition in the lead-up to the next election. I still have mental scars from the ones run against the Rudd and Gillard governments by the Automotive Industry(Novated Leases), also the Clubs and Pubs wrt Gambling legislation, Tim Wilson’s Franking Credits campaign, and the Fossil Fuel industry’s anti Climate Change action campaign. And if polling is on the knife edge it seems to be then I fear for the worst as a result.
What do you think C@tmomma?
Why does Donald Trump keep denying that he’s into golden showers?
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/20/2207000/-Why-does-Donald-Trump-keep-denying-that-he-s-into-golden-showers?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web
“But for some reason, Trump keeps reminding people about one of its most eye-popping allegations: that there was footage of him watching Russian sex workers urinate on each other.”
“Trump denied the nearly seven-year-old allegation at some length at an Iowa campaign event over the weekend:
”He was with four hookers”—you think that’s good to go up that night and tell my wife, “It’s not true darling, I love you very much. It’s not true!” Actually, that one she didn’t believe, because she said, ‘He’s a germaphobe. He’s not into that, you know? He’s not into golden showers as they say they call that stuff.” I don’t like that idea. No, I didn’t—I thought that would be a big problem, I was going to have a rough night, but that one, she was very good on.
At a donor event in 2021, Trump similarly brought up the story unprompted, in order to deny it. Again, no one but him was talking about this.
Trump’s story about his wife’s response has also changed. In 2018, former FBI Director James Comey wrote in his memoir that Trump had repeatedly urged him to investigate and discredit the report—and Melania’s response was part of the reason Trump said it was so important. Trump, Comey wrote, “brought up what he called the ‘golden showers thing’ … It bothered him if there was ‘even a one-percent chance’ his wife, Melania, thought it was true.” This astonished Comey, who wondered, “In what kind of marriage, to what kind of man, does a spouse conclude there is only a 99 percent chance her husband didn’t do that?” So it seems that Trump wasn’t always saying Melania waved off the story.”
Moms for Liberty leader turns out to be a convicted sex offender
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/20/2206968/-Moms-for-Liberty-leader-turns-out-to-be-a-convicted-sex-offender?utm_campaign=trending
“That headline above, while infuriating, is unfortunately not very surprising, at least to me.
It’s projection all the way down. Scratch the surface of any GOP cause or belief and you will find the thing they are most against is the very thing that they themselves are guilty of or are trying to cover up.
The hypocrisy is maddening and it never seems to end.
A Republican pastor who coordinates the faith-based outreach for the Philadelphia chapter of Moms for Liberty was convicted a decade ago of sexually abusing a teenage boy.
Phillip Fisher Jr., who leads the Center of Universal Divinity in Olney, helps connect the right-wing group with local faith leaders to boost membership, and other leaders say they’re shocked to learn he pleaded guilty in 2012 to a felony count of aggravated sexual abuse of a 14-year-old boy when he was 25, reported The Philadelphia Inquirer.”
Vensays:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 10:50 pm
What do you think C@tmomma?
Why does Donald Trump keep denying that he’s into golden showers?
___________________________
you seem as just as interested as Trump and the rumor didn’t even concern you.
As the article says he keeps bringing that story without prompt. Actually I never thought about that story in more than 7 years, which I read before 2016 election, and I didn’t give much thought about it even then because there were many more outrageous about him even at that time.
Cat
There is sure to be a LNP fear campaign before the next election, the only question is on what. I’d still bet it will be on S3. If that stops Labor acting they will never pass another policy.
Labor has to develop ways to fight fear campaigns. They are the new normal. The Libs have given up on real policy.
sprocket at 6.23 pm
The interview with Dr Leon Aron is interesting. His main thesis is that Putin and his regime need the war to continue. While Aron is at the right wing think tank called the American Enterprise Institute, this view has been expressed clearly in Russia by socialist critics of Putin, such as Boris Kagarlitsky, who has been imprisoned in recent months.
Aron expected Putin to invade Latvia, not Ukraine, though Putin had attacked Ukraine in 2014. He says “Putin was madder than I thought”, in trying to occupy a large country such as Ukraine.
Aron claims Putin is relying only on Ukraine fatigue in the West as the major factor in his favour. He does not assess that factor. He says Putin cannot win his war but cannot afford to lose, or rather be seen to have lost.
Those points are fairly basic and hardly novel. Aron draws the comparison between Putin and the reactionary Tsar Alexander III, to whom Putin has erected a monument. His most interesting comments are about how the Russian economy has been distorted by Putin’s war, but he overstates the extent of this, and probably also the significance of the Wagner mutiny.
Aron supported the rejection of Ukrainian neutrality in early April 2022 as a basis for ending the war, a view promoted then by a titan of diplomatic stupidity named B. Johnson:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/ukraine-neutrality-peace-agreement-finland/629473/
One key passage in that article is this: ‘Putin does not need a “neutral” Ukraine; he needs a failed Ukraine. His desire to create one—not to fend off a mythical NATO menace—is what this invasion is all about.’
A neutral Ukraine is off the table. Putin is trying to create a failed Ukraine. He has destroyed much of Ukraine’s economy. His key motive was always vengeance. Objectively, and very sadly in terms of the loss of life, Putin is closer to his aim of a failed Ukraine now than he would have been if the possible negotiated end to the war that B. Johnson opposed had occurred in April 2022, with Russia withdrawing to its positions on 23 Feb 2022.
There are two particular linked points in the interview that are doubtful. 1) at 22 mins in, Aron exaggerates the social impact of the Russian military losses, drawing an analogy with 1917. The problem with that claim is that he has noted the Russian cannon fodder soldiers come mostly from poor non-Russian parts of Russia, not from the main Russian cities. It would be good if Putin is overthrown soon by a revolution, but that seems unlikely.
2) Because of that (unfortunately) misplaced analogy, Aron exaggerates Putin’s predilection for using nuclear weapons against Ukraine, claiming Putin is obsessed with nuclear threats, due to his position of weakness.
There was a public debate on that point in Russia in June. A belligerent named Karaganov, who proposed a Russian use of nuclear weapons to force the West to back down, was strongly condemned by various others.
For a summary see:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/07/the-west-cannot-cure-russias-nuclear-fever/
When asked at a press conference Putin did not endorse Karaganov’s view. That all occurred before Netanyahu’s war strengthened Putin’s position.
New thread.
US court rolls back key voting rights protection.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67480042
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/news-corp-denies-albanese-government-any-credit-for-success,18096, ‘… Albo’ centrist enough for Murdoch Infotainment?
Do you think economists are more prone to this ideological stubbornness than other academics/professionals?
The economics discipline has mostly been in a degenerative research paradigm – it’s been getting dumber over time – for the past 50 years.
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Just like Tasmanian aborigines ?
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It’s partly because of group think and partly because of the symbiotic relationship between economists and economic elites.
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For a relationship to be described as symbiotic requires it to be mutually beneficial to each party, in this case economists and economic elites.
For economists to be beneficial to economic elites they must think up new ways to justify greed. (The benefit to economists from economic elites is presumably crumbs from the table). If economists are thinking up new ways to justify greed then maybe not so degenerative in the sense of getting “dumber”, unless helping the rich get richer is axiomatically dumb, which is a hard argument to make.