Midweek miscellany: Morgan poll, redistributions, Liberal Senate preselections (open thread)

Morgan finds the Coalition with its nose in front; latest redistribution machinations; and Liberal Senate preselections in NSW and Tasmania.

The only new poll for the week is the the weekly Roy Morgan federal poll, which for the second time in recent months credits the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead. In this case it’s by the barest margin of 50.5-49.5, compared with 50-50 last week. The poll is also the first for the term with Labor’s primary vote below 30%, having fallen half a point from last week to 29.5%, with the Coalition up half to 37% and the Greens up half to 13.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.


• The Age/Herald had further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll on Sunday, showing 48% support for constitutional recognition of Indigenous people as the first inhabitants of Australia, an even 40% for and against a legislated voice, 33% support for a Commonwealth treaty with 37% opposed, and 35% support for the Makarrata Commission for truth-telling with 31% opposed.

Public suggestions have been published for the Western Australian federal redistribution, with both major parties’ new submissions concurring with the conventional wisdom that the state’s new seat will need to be in Perth’s eastern suburbs. Labor proposes a seat called Farmer in honour of local football legend Graham “Polly” Farmer taking out a large part of the current seat of Hasluck, which would deeper into suburbia in the west. The Liberals propose a seat of Court in honour of two of the party’s past premiers, which would likewise take a large chunk of Hasluck, but extend instead beyond the metropolitan area in the conservative territory of the Avon Valley. The deadline for submission for Victoria’s federal redistribution is on Friday, to be published next Wednesday. The finalisation of Western Australia’s state redistribution is also due “no later” than December 1.

• Two Liberal Senate preselections will be held on the weekend, one being to fill the vacancy created by Marise Payne’s retirement in New South Wales. Moderate-aligned former state government minister Andrew Constance is routinely invoked as the front-runner, but Peter Dutton is supporting conservative former ACT Senator Zed Seselja, and Monica Tudehope, former deputy chief-of-staff to Dominic Perrottet and daughter of Finance Minister Damien Tudehope, has support from Business Council of Australia chief executive Bran Black. Also in the field are former parliamentarians Dave Sharma and Lou Amato, NSW RSL president James Brown, and Lowy Institute research fellow Jess Collins.

• A vote of 67 preselectors on Saturday will determine the Tasmanian Liberals’ Senate ticket, in which conservative-backed Clarence mayor Brendan Blomeley hopes to wrest the second position from moderate incumbent Richard Colbeck. Conservative incumbent Claire Chandler appears assured of top position, with another conservative, Simon Behrakis, a possibility for the usually unfruitful third position. UPDATE: Informed local observer Kevin Bonham notes in comments that Simon Behrakis has filled a vacancy in state parliament, and is presumably no longer in the running.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,252 comments on “Midweek miscellany: Morgan poll, redistributions, Liberal Senate preselections (open thread)”

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  1. I didn’t pick this drop off in ALP primary. It’s shocking and we’re heading to <30% for the ALP soon if the ALP doesn't get into gear.

    I’ve been saying this for a while now. The mood in the country is sour. Dutton and Co. have contributed, but so have circumstances. I think the Prime Minister is carrying on like there’s nothing wrong that a bit of good governance won’t fix. Well, he’s wrong there. As far as I can see the things the government are doing are process based, and it’s gotten them into the weeds.

    People want the government and the PM to be demonstrative. They want them out there telling Coles and Woolies to pull their heads in and stop putting a massive profit before helping out the battlers! Stuff like that. Shame the companies who are making off like bandits into doing things for the little guys who are hurting. Not engaging in share buybacks and C Suite Bonuses.

    And that’s who I have my major criticism for. Jim Chalmers is just as useless for the government as the Prime Minister has been. His Man of the People, Mr Nice Guy schtick is driving me crazy! If he studied Paul Keating, he didn’t learn anything from him. Where’s the mongrel in the guy!?! If I were him I’d be out every day ripping Peter Dutton and Angus Taylor a new one! And yes, where is the Coalition’s plan for reducing the Cost of Living!?! They don’t have one. All they have is superior rhetoric. And it’s working like a charm.

    Straighten up and fly right, Labor! Or you’ll crash and burn!

  2. Oakeshott Country, 651pm

    I hadn’t realised until talking to an Irish co-worker that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are often very similar in policy, and that indeed what separates them is which side they were on in the Irish Civil War one hundred years ago. And that in many families this is pretty much entrenched forever! So maybe some of the recent drift to Sinn Féin has been followers of those two major parties who would never vote for the other one no matter what.

    I was mildly surprised at Sinn Féin topping the vote in the 2020 Irish election, but I was shocked when they did the same at the elections in 2022 for the Northern Ireland Assembly (which is currently non-functioning)

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