YouGov, from which we can expect federal polling every three weeks in future (give or take a looming seasonal furlough), had a federal poll yesterday showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, narrowing from 53-47 in a poll conducted shortly before the referendum. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 31%, the Coalition is steady on 36%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation are up to 7%. Net satisfaction ratings find both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton at minus 7%, marking a four point decline in Albanese’s case and a five point improvement in Dutton’s. Albanese nonetheless leads 48% to 34% as preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted last Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1582.
In other news, there are the following developments from the world of preselection, once again relating entirely to the Liberal Party:
• Gisele Kapterian, international trade lawyer and executive director of cloud computing firm Salesforce, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for North Sydney, notwithstanding the possibility that it might be abolished or effectively merged with a neighbouring seat as part of the looming redistribution. The latter course is the effective recommendation of the Liberal Party’s own submission to the redistribution, which proposed maintaining North Sydney as the name of a seat encompassing most of an abolished Warringah. Grahame Lynch of the North Sydney Sun reports the moderate-aligned Kapterian won a ballot over Jess Collins, conservative-aligned researcher for the Lowy Institute (also a candidate for the preselection that will be held next weekend to fill Marise Payne’s Senate vacancy), by 145 votes to 106. Other nominees were Georgia Lovell, policy manager at the NSW Department of Customer Service, and Sophie Lambert, media manager at the NSW Education Department.
• Russell Broadbent has quit the Liberal party room after losing a preselection vote for his regional Victorian seat of Monash on Sunday to Mary Aldred, Fujitsu executive and daughter of the late former Liberal MP Ken Aldred. Aldred secured a sweeping victory with 162 votes against 16 each for Broadbent and a third contender, South Gippsland mayor Nathan Hersey. An ABC report cites a Nationals source saying that party was “likely to aggressively campaign for the seat”.
• Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports a view among Liberals that Moore MP Ian Goodenough is likely to lose preselection next month to Vince Connelly, who narrowly failed to topple Goodenough after his own seat of Stirling was abolished in 2022.
• Angira Bharadwaj of News Corp reports Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley has said it would be “totally unacceptable” if Lindsay MP Melissa McIntosh succumbed to a preselection challenge from Mark Davies, Penrith councillor, factional conservative and husband of state Mulgoa MP Tanya Davies, and that “we would not let this occur”.
The tax-free threshold could be increased. Quite a lot. That would deliver benefits to all and proportionately the most to the least-well paid. Low-income earners should not be paying much income tax. Pensions and other social transfers could be significantly increased. Medicare benefits could be very significantly increased, so that bulk-billing by GPs would expand. I’d like all of this.
I’m intrigued to know how the critics of Milei in Argentina think that his opponents have the answers? They are the ones who have created the current situation. What have they done and had promised to do that was going to fix it?
The most important thing that has to be done is defeating inflation and the currency solution is a good first step along with reducing deficits.
Yes, it’s going to be tough for a lot, but it’s already tough and only getting worse at the moment. Surgery always hurts and from bitter personal experience some of the most important surgery hurts the most.
You don’t have to agree with all his politics but there is no rational argument that his opponents were the answer to the economic woes of the nation. Once you fix the economics then you have the privilege of being as woke as you like – as we see in economically successful democracies.
Princeplanet 8:35 am
“….. LNP are a moribund lot with the talent of a wooden spoon winning football team but they have the megaphone of the Murdochracy/ Television news and Ocker Shock jocks treating every nonsensical thing they say as gospel.”
———
This to me is the main issue. In good times the impact is not so bad but the Murdochracy is far more effective in challenging times. With their full support, the LNP is in a solid position to be successful at the coming election if conditions don’t improve though I expect they will. In fact, the current economic scenario is not bad but the msm position ignores facts.
SolarPunk says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 11:45 am
Hey Bludgers
…
What I see is a political class that’s great at being politicians – you know, promoting themselves and beating up the other guy. Blaming everything on the ‘other’. But not so good at running the world for the benefit of its inhabitants.
….’
———————–
Uh huh. ‘political class’. A variation on the same old, same old, tired old bullshit.
Albanese is not Dutton.
Labor is not the Liberals.
Labor is not the Greens.
Labor builds. The Liberals wreck. The Greens block.
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 12:31 pm
I’m intrigued…’
———————
Having an excellent day,then.
The prosecution of Joe Tripodi from ICAC’s Operation Spicer has gained little publicity, which I guess is not surprising as the events happened 12 years ago.
At the 2011 NSW state election, Labor’s Fortress Central Coast – Newcastle was destroyed with only Wallsend (naturally) staying true to the faith. Seats which had not seen a non-labor member in 100 years were lost.
Spicer investigated irregularities in the Liberals’ election funding in the region and resulted in the heads of several members of parliament and power broker Chris Hartcher. Spicer was one of the bright spots for Labor in the saga of ICAC investigations.
However, when the results in Jodi McKay’s seat of Newcastle were examined it is alleged that Joe Tropodi was on an earner from the Boganaire, Nathan Tinkler to promote his company Buildev building a coal loader on port land in the suburb of Mayfield. McKay opposed this and wanted a container terminal. Tripodi, who was the co-leader of the dominant Terrigal sub-faction of the NSW right allegedly leaked sensitive planning documents to the Boganaire and will be prosecuted for this. More importantly from a party governance issue, he also personally organised an unauthorised and scurrilous letter drop AGAINST McKay, to ensure her defeat.
So we had the de facto leader of the Labor Party in NSW covertly campaigning against a sitting Labor member. How did this piece of shit ever get into the party? Why was his rise not stopped by internal governance measures? Why was he not disendorsed when accusations of sexual assault in parliament house were made against him 12 years earlier? What was the adminstrative committee doing? Has the administrative committee appreciably changed in the last 12 years?
The story of McKay’s subsequent career in the party is another problematic issue.
Young people are continuing to bear the brunt of rising interest rates and rental pressures, while older Australians are splashing out on cruises and dining out, new spending data indicates.
The report from Commbank iQ — a joint venture between the country’s biggest bank and data firm Quantium — looks at the financial data of 7 million Australians.
Its latest quarterly report found that after spending on housing costs is stripped away, people under 30 years old are even cutting back on essentials such as food, fuel and insurance.
Conversely, people aged over 65 are continuing to grow their spending on non-essential goods and services faster than inflation.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-21/commbank-iq-young-old-divide-housing-rates-mortgages-rents/103126250
boring war
The last election was decided by the extremely effective vicious character assassination of Morrison.
It’s not as if the ALP’s number 1 highest priority policy of the Referendum has turned out to be a raging electoral success.
The budget outcomes to date for the ALP are not due to any amazing budget policies – they are riding on the coat tails of the resources sector that they despise so much.
The same strategy is being attempted against Dutton, both on this site and throughout the social media and left wing media sites.
Oppositions do not win elections – Governments lose them.
SolarPunk says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 12:04 pm
Sir Henry Parkes
It’s your last sentence that’s the kicker.
Yes, the politicians need to take the people with them, but who is actively doing that? Where is the Labor politician actually leading? Actually telling the truth Re Global Warming? Prosecuting the case for change and the consequences of inaction?
If the Labor politicians are such great leaders, they need to lead on this and inform the public and get them onside.
I don’t see this happening.
This is the hard thing to do. The easy thing to do is take the donations from the fossil fuel companies and don’t take on the main stream media disinformation campaign.
___________________________________________________________
Solarpunk, I wish it were as simple as just explaining what needs to be done, but as the above-mentioned Resolve poll indicated, many, many Australians are not prepared to accept that.
Perhaps the government could be doing more to explain, but if by “actually leading” you mean taking action the public is not prepared to support, then that way lies disaster.
I was also shocked a few weeks back to find that, apparently, 50% of Australians support the LNP’s suggestion of nuclear power to replace fossil fuels. There is also a campaign underway in marginal Labor seats on NSW’s coast against offshore windfarms. I don’t know how confected local opposition to wind turbines is, but I fear such NIMBY tactics could undermine necessary climate action.
Instead of bashing the Labor government, it might be better to educate the public about the need for renewable energy and the installation of more power lines to transmit it.
Boerwar @ 12.38
Looks like I cheesed you off so much you answered me twice!!
And just to talk about inaction by the ‘Political Class’ let’s talk Ants.
There is an article in the ABC today, finally some funding to stop an invasive species before it gets out of hand! Yay!
But why did it take so long? And why aren’t we hitting Fire Ants with all the money and resources the problem needs? And re Fire ants it’s now wall to wall Labor Governments, so now the inaction is on them.
And yes, plenty of inaction from the LNP, and it would be worse no doubt, but unfortunately for Labor we expect them to do better!!
I don’t know how confected local opposition to wind turbines is, but I fear such NIMBY tactics could undermine necessary climate action.
Instead of bashing the Labor government, it might be better to educate the public about the need for renewable energy and the installation of more power lines to transmit it.
___________________________________
Actually it’s time to try bashing, defunding and penalising the astro-turfers and their funding sources.
Noggin,
Cost it and then tell us how you intend to pay for it and then take it to an election.
Hey Sir Henry @ 12.50
I think we are agreeing – I don’t expect Labor to just go for it without bringing the public along.
My complaint is they aren’t ever trying to educate the public.
Where is the Govt campaign to undermine the astroturfed opposition to green energy?
They have the powers and money of the Govt – use it!! Come out and tell everyone the off shore wind farm opposition is based on Donald Trumps utterances! Spend Govt money on advertising, social media, whatever to prosecute the case.
All I hear from the MSM media is the anti-progressive bullshit.
Labor – use the money and platform and educate!! And use those resources to take on the MSM – maybe have a press council with actual teeth that is t run by the people it is supposed to prosecute.
You know the reactionary Christianists will use the Govts power to push their agenda if they ever get re-elected. Time to go hard and prevent this.
Hey Sir Henry @ 12.50
I think we are agreeing – I don’t expect Labor to just go for it without bringing the public along.
My complaint is they aren’t ever trying to educate the public.
Where is the Govt campaign to undermine the astroturfed opposition to green energy?
They have the powers and money of the Govt – use it!! Come out and tell everyone the off shore wind farm opposition is based on Donald Trumps utterances! Spend Govt money on advertising, social media, whatever to prosecute the case.
All I hear from the MSM media is the anti-progressive bullshit.
Labor – use the money and platform and educate!! And use those resources to take on the MSM – maybe have a press council with actual teeth that isn’t run by the people it is supposed to prosecute.
You know the reactionary Christianists will use the Govts power to push their agenda if they ever get re-elected. Time to go hard and prevent this.
Hey Solarpunk. I can’t disagree with any of what you said in your last post.
AlphaZero @ 12.56
Yep! 100% agree
Smash the disinformation at the source
Sir Henry @ 1.05
Thanks
🙂
FUBAR says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 12:47 pm
The last election was decided by the extremely effective vicious character assassination of Morrison.
Very amusing. Morrison has been disowned by the remaining Reactionaries. His reputation is all his own work.
Labor have applied fiscal restraint as well as monetary tightening in order to reverse a decade of Reactionary economic mismanagement. Tough policies. Possibly not tough enough. It would have been wiser to increase taxes on high income earners and reduce taxes on the low paid. That would have had the effect of shifting consumption/savings patterns and supporting measures to reduce inflation.
Crikey has an article on Dreyfus’ introduction of an overhaul of the nation’s secrecy laws.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/11/21/dreyfus-overhaul-secrecy-laws/
An excellent move by Dreyfus that can’t come too soon. Scandals in Defense, Home Affairs and CentreLink have demonstrated that misbehaving public servants are using overly generous secrecy laws not to protect national security, but to protect their own job security when there are allegations of wrongdoing. Labor has little to loose and much to gain from ending this farce.
Incidentally a second Crikey article refers to a poll that suggests 75% of Australians are in favour of greater protection of whistle blowers. This is where Labor can act to enhance credibility.
Another 0.25% interest rate rise??
In turning to the policy decision, members noted that underlying inflation had been more persistent over the prior few months than had previously been expected. High inflation was being underpinned by above-average price rises for a wide range of consumer goods and services. There was clear evidence – most notably for services price inflation, which was quite brisk – that this owed to domestically generated pressures associated with aggregate demand exceeding aggregate supply. This strength in demand was allowing firms to pass on higher costs for labour and non-labour inputs. Data released over prior months had also signalled that domestic demand had been more resilient than previously expected. This resilience in activity had occurred despite the increases in the cash rate over the prior 18 months progressively working their way through the economy. Members noted that the experience of other countries over prior months had been similar, and that international experience previously had been a useful guide to economic developments in Australia.
Members considered the revised central forecasts produced by Bank staff. They observed that the forecasts were for inflation to decline to the top of the target range only in late 2025, a bit later than had been envisaged in August. Members also noted that the unemployment rate was still expected to increase, but by less than thought in August.
Members considered the implications for monetary policy of developments in financial conditions. They noted that the cash rate remained below policy rates in many other countries, despite similar economic conditions, although various factors might account for this difference. The rise in longer term bond yields over preceding months had fewer implications for Australia than in some other countries, and the exchange rate was little changed on a trade-weighted basis. Members also noted that the staff’s broader estimates of required household debt repayments (as a share of disposable income) implied that the debt repayment burden was not as high as it had been 15 years earlier. More generally, members noted that fixed-rate borrowers were tending to roll onto (more expensive) variable-rate loans without a noticeable adverse effect on their ability to service their loans. At the same time, housing prices were continuing to rise and loan approvals had increased over prior months, both of which might indicate that financial conditions are not especially restrictive.
In light of these observations, members considered whether to raise the cash rate target by a further 25 basis points or to hold the cash rate steady.
The case to raise the cash rate target by a further 25 basis points centred on the risks arising from the outlook for inflation being stronger than it had been some months earlier. Members noted that underlying inflation in the September quarter had been higher than previously expected, inflationary pressures were evident across a broad range of consumer items, and inflation was most apparent in items for which inflation typically took longer to subside (such as services). Collectively, these observations implied that it would take some time for inflation to return to target.
https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2023/2023-11-07.html
Noggin @ 1.16
Yes! Anti inflation tax hike for the rich!
“The last election was decided by the extremely effective vicious character assassination of Morrison.”
Who knows why the world turned against this honest, church-going tradie, trying to feed his family on $500K per year plus super and expenses? Life can be so cruel.
Looks like more rate rises coming – what a shame the rba doesn’t see it the same way as noted economist PB Andy.
Productivity is actually going backwards under AlbO according to the rba.
“The climate is out of control!!”
Human’s have never controlled the climate and do not control the climate and will never control the climate. The climate is doing what the climate has always done -changing in a dynamic open ended chaotic system.
Belief that humans can control climate belongs in the same basket as the beliefs in religious omniscient and omnipresent beings – faith – something that cannot be proven.
Nog
“Labor have applied fiscal restraint as well as monetary tightening”
The RBA is an independent body. The ALP has absolutely nothing to do with the monetary tightening. The RBA is fighting against both imported inflation and the inflation caused by the ALP’s inflationary budgets at Federal, State and Local government levels. Terrible planning and development policies forcing up prices for first home buyers. The madness of their energy policies continues to crush consumers and businesses with huge energy price inflation and an undefined pipeline of massive future expenditures for zero measurable outcomes except a sense of moral superiority and lots of dead eagles, birds and bats.
Alpha,
Are you going after the disinformation about how cheap the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro was going to be?
Devastating comments from Cameron Milner , ALP insider on Albo:
“The PM has presided over 12 interest rate rises, taken 18 overseas trips, lost a referendum and seen his approvals plummet all in his first 18 months in office. It’s quite the record. The Melbourne Cup Day rate rise was the rise that may well stop this nation. Cost of living is a harsh reality for millions of Australians when mortgage costs, rents, power bills, fuel and food all cost not more, but a lot more. It’s certainly not easy under Albanese.
Fresh back from Washington, the PM did briefly revisit his New Year’s resolution for 2023 and say cost of living was going to be his next priority, before he jetted off to China’s own Forbidden Palace for a trip that ended happily with a “handsome boy” compliment.”
SolarPunk says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 12:53 pm
Boerwar @ 12.38
Looks like I cheesed you off so much you answered me twice!!
…’
—————————–
SolarPunk says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 11:45 am
Hey Bludgers
…
What I see is a political class that’s great at being politicians – you know, promoting themselves and beating up the other guy. Blaming everything on the ‘other’. But not so good at running the world for the benefit of its inhabitants.
….’
———————–
You dish up the same bullshit you get the same answer.
Your ‘political class’ is a variation on the ‘same old, same old’, tired old bullshit.
Albanese is not Dutton.
Labor is not the Liberals.
Labor is not the Greens.
Labor builds. The Liberals wreck. The Greens block.
Did someone say bad things about Scomo of Shark One and the Trillion dollar debt?
Oooooooooooo.
LVT
That ‘devastating’ article from Cameron Milner is tame compared to his normal tripe he produces for his paymaster Murdoch..
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/cameron-milner
I see that Cameron Milner is a lobbyist, who writes for the OZ, and who’s been banned by Palaszczuk from lobbying her ministers. Are you therefore sure Lars that he’s a Labor insider?
Boring war,
Re the size of the Federal Debt – you think that there should have been no fiscal support for the economy during COVID? Unusual for a socialist to be so much in to punching down. Like a good recession, do you? The old Paul Keating mantra – the recession we had to have?
Exactly how would you have supported the economy during COVID without borrowing?
I trust you are as harsh on the Rudd GFC borrowing and spending? No? He started from a no net debt position.
Oh Cameron Milner! Once CoS to Shorten. Called Shorten’s ‘gatekeeper’ and ‘right hand man’.
Mav
Milner was banned because he was such an insider that the charade couldn’t be maintained and even the Soccer Mum couldn’t handle the political heat on it.
I’m guessing if Cameron Milner is writing it other Labor insiders are thinking it too.
Milner was also Shorten’s Chief of Staff, and contributed to the losses against a dreadful government – and then sold his soul to Rupert.
reminds me of Graeme Richardson without the Swiss bank account
I think Milner is still working for Littlefinger!
Doing the dirty work.
“The PM has presided over 12 interest rate rises, taken 18 overseas trips, lost a referendum and seen his approvals plummet all in his first 18 months in office. It’s quite the record. The Melbourne Cup Day rate rise was the rise that may well stop this nation. Cost of living is a harsh reality for millions of Australians when mortgage costs, rents, power bills, fuel and food all cost not more, but a lot more. It’s certainly not easy under Albanese.
And what the fuck would Morrison have done differently apart from the referendum? He hadnt a single idea let alone a policy that he took to the last election. Dutton is going to run on exactly the same non agenda this time around too.
FUBAR:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 1:55 pm
Well, at least she got rid of him, at least on the face of it. Some info on him:
https://www.afr.com/politics/milner-passed-over-for-parliament-is-now-bills-gatekeeper-20150911-gjk5g6
Having been a former C of S to Shorten, it shouldn’t surprise where his loyalties lie. And it’s no wonder the OZ appears to have laid out the red carpet for him – a former insider who appears, as judged by the instant Oz article, to be aggrieved.
S. Simpson says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 11:11 am
My view is that Ukraine should cede Crimea to Russia. This is purely because Crimea was part of Russia prior to 1954. Russia should withdraw from the Donbas, however. We know that Ukraine and Russia were close to a peace agreement in 2022 before Boris Johnson flew to Kyiv and instructed Zelensky not to make peace. Tens of thousands of dead later, here we are.
As Kyiv was founded many centuries before Moscow, Russia should pack up and cede all lands to Ukraine.
Dutton as PM will do what every Liberal PM has done. Just look after his rich mates, make workers poorer and just spout a load of right wing rhetoric along the lines of Trump in America..
I just did a brief survey on YouGov. I suspect it was commissioned by the ALP. It was about revealing political donations and dealing with government corruption.
Hopefully rules about immediate publication of all donations above a low amount are imminent.
steve davis @ #942 Tuesday, November 21st, 2023 – 2:24 pm
But wait there’s more.
Dutton was responsible for the paramilitary Border Force stopping ‘foreign looking people’ on the streets of Melbourne and asking “Papers Please!”
steve
“make workers poorer” – utter rubbish. I refer you to the real wages growth achieved under the Howard Government. Get back to me when you can explain how that made workers poorer.
Once you have done that – explain how real wages are increasing under Elbow.
You’re lucky there’s no “misinformation” laws in place.
I can wait.
Mostly,
You’re sure the Minister directed that activity to occur?
FUBAR @ #946 Tuesday, November 21st, 2023 – 2:47 pm
I’m sorry I can’t recall that matter…
Not only is productivity going backward under the ALP, but real wages continue to fall.
How’s the progress on the promise to cut power bills for households by $275 a year by 2025 compared to before the election? Relying on there still being time?? Shouldn’t this have been classified as misinformation?
Don’t worry – Snow Hydro 2.0 will lower power prices! Apparently. (Just ignore the additional transmission costs that weren’t included, oh, and the construction cost blow outs – they don’t matter – we know this from the Andrews and McGowan Governments’ management of infrastructure projects.)
Reactionary misinformation flung like the proverbial here…I will return in a few months.
Five of the 93 people affected by this month’s high court decision on indefinite detention had already been released into community detention by the Coalition.
According to a home affairs document, the person who spent the second longest time in detention – 12 years – was living in the Australian community under a “residence determination” granted by the Morrison government in February 2022.
The document, published by the high court on Tuesday, also confirms that not all the 93 people affected by the high court’s decision had convictions in Australia.
Earlier in November, Guardian Australia revealed that despite the department warning that 92 people in addition to the plaintiff would have to be released if the high court ruled that indefinite detention was unlawful, documents tendered in court appeared to show that 21 were already on residence determinations.
These allow people to live at a specified residence in the community, subject to conditions including regular reporting and being prevented from working.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/21/indefinite-detention-coalition-had-already-released-5-of-93-impacted-by-high-court-decision-document-reveals
Does this country really need 500k more Uber drivers every year