Resolve Strategic: Labor 35, Coalition 30, Greens 13 (open thread)

Resolve Strategic finds an ongoing weakening in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, but little sign of damage to Labor on voting intention.

I’m not seeing any reporting on it in the Sydney Morning Herald or The Age, but the papers’ collective Resolve Political Monitor page features results of the latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll (hat tip to Nadia88 in comments), an early intimation of which was Saturday’s New South Wales state results. The federal primary vote shares have Labor down two on last month to 35%, the Coalition down one to 30%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation steady on 7%. I make this out to be 57-43 in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, little changed on last month, which maintains the pollster’s form as the strongest series for Labor.

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, his very good plus good performance rating being down five to 39% with poor plus very poor up three to 46%. Peter Dutton is respectively at 35% and 40%. Conversely, Peter Dutton records his best results yet from Resolve Strategic, being rated favourably by 35% (up five, although the previous result was down five on the one before) and unfavourably by 40% (down five on the last poll and three on the one before). Albanese leads 40-27 on preferred prime minister, in from 47-25 last time. The lack of accompanying reporting leaves us none the wiser on field work dates and sample size, but it was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of about 1600.

UPDATE: The Age/Herald report relates the poll was conducted the Wednesday to Sunday before last from a sample of 1602. It also has further results illustrating growing economic pessimism, with between 41% to 46% expecting conditions to worsen over various time frames from a month to a year, with the share expecting improvement increasing from 5% for a month from now to 23% for a year. The 70% who said they expected more interest rate rises this year were vindicated shortly after the poll was conducted, and fully 64% said they expected inflation to get worse in the near future, which is not strictly speaking what any economic forecaster expects.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

643 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 35, Coalition 30, Greens 13 (open thread)”

Comments Page 12 of 13
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  1. michael @ #560 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 3:38 pm

    Judging from essential, looks like Resolve overshot Labor lead by 8%. 57-43 resolve and 53-47 essential.
    Resolve either need to pack it all up or have a serious look as they have sampling issues.

    Essential throws up the odd anomaly I think. They had the Greens -4 last time and +2 now.

    The bludgertrack gives the best indication.

  4. WARNING: East coast cookers, Qarens and conservatives look away now !
    Some positive news for the US offshore wind industry as the first of 62 massive 13MW turbines goes up for the Vineyard Wind project off Massachusetts.https://t.co/vT82l4VMlh— RenewEconomy (@renew_economy) November 14, 2023
    ________ _______
    Won’t anyone think of the whales.gif?

  5. Herr Bowe doesn’t even include it (Morgan) in bludgertrack.

    It’s sort of a useful debating point isn’t it 1”but Morgan says.

    What’s amazing it’s pretty much heading back to the 2019 election figures – might be as little as + or – 5 seats change hands in the next election.

  6. Will the Libs run an anti-immigration tied to cost of living/ housing campaign ?

    That would really mean giving up on the north Sydney’s of this world and trying to pick up the outer urban MacArthur type seats .

    Still on the subject of north Sydney you’d have to think it could be a Labor pick up from the teal (redistribution dependent) there wasn’t much in the excellent Labor candidate winning it last time ? Another Higgins?

  8. 5m ago
    05.04 GMT
    Over in the Queensland parliament and Extinction Rebellion says that a group of peaceful climate activists were refused entry into the parliament because of the shirts they were wearing.

    The slogans on the shirts included:

    * CLIMATE SCIENCE
    * STOP in the name of love
    * NEW COAL
    * NEW GAS
    * There is no Planet B
    * SCIENCE

    There are rules in most parliaments about clothing, which includes slogans on t-shirts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/nov/14/australia-politics-live-gambling-lobbyists-qanda-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-question-time-gaza-cost-of-living-labor-liberal-victoria-nsw-queensland

    The fossil fuel cartel are very protective of their parliaments.

  9. That would really mean giving up on the north Sydney’s of this world and trying to pick up the outer urban MacArthur type seats

    The Libs essentially already have Macarthur with Freelander.

  10. Pretty strong article from The Shot.

    https://theshot.net.au/news/general-news/the-lying-game-australias-political-landscape-to-come/

    Throughout 2023, the leader of the federal opposition, Peter Dutton, used his position to tell Australians that Canada is powered by 60% nuclear energy (no it isn’t), that Marcia Langton called all No voters “racist and stupid” (no she didn’t), that since Labor took government in 2022, 105,000 asylum seekers have entered Australia (no they haven’t), and that wind farms kill whales (no they don’t). I could go on forever, but I only have a certain amount of words.

    All of these claims by Dutton were deceptive and misleading – bold-faced, dangerous, totally unsubstantiated lies that were deliberately designed to deceive the Australian public. Legally, nothing can be done about it and nothing was done about it. The Australian government will legislate to protect you from a soggy phone, but not from a powerful politician who repeatedly lies about renewable energy or climate change.

    The fact is, one of the main strategies of the Liberal party and its step-sibling, the Nationals, is to tell lies deliberately in order to create chaos and confusion, then move on and tell another lie. The deliberate lies are not an aberration or a flaw or an occasional hiccup any more, they’re now a crucial part of the way the Liberal party operates. The lies are now a feature of their re-election strategy.

  11. In regards to Broadbent, is it known if he’s retiring at the next election? Or does he intend to contest Monash as an Independent (aka Russell Northe in the Victorian state seat of Morwell in 2018 after he quit the Nationals in 2017).

    Or is he keeping quiet about his intentions for the moment?

  12. ”Gosford and the seats of Robertson and Dobell are Regional seats, not Outer Metropolitan. That would apply to seats based around Campbelltown, Penrith and Richmond.”

    People who live on the Central Coast (like much of my family) don’t regard themselves as living in Sydney, so that’s fair enough. The Central Coast isn’t a separate city like Wollongong or Newcastle though, even though it has enough people. It seems to be more a collection of suburbs.

    Penrith is definitely part of Sydney. Its LGA is nearly all on “this” side of the Nepean. So is Campbelltown, although parts of its LGA may be regional.

    You still see cows on the way to Richmond and Windsor, but not for much longer. They’ll soon be joined to the contiguous suburban sprawl.

  13. 31m ago
    15.53 AEDT
    Benita Kolovos
    Benita Kolovos
    The three students who protested during Victorian parliament’s question time have spoken to reporters outside parliament.

    Myles Wilkinson, Joey Thompson and Diana, who asked for her surname not be published, unfurled posters from the public gallery and sung, “Which side are you on? History will remember you” to the chamber of MPs before they were escorted from the parliament by protective service officers.

    Their posters promoted Friday’s Schools Strike 4 Climate rally.

    Speaking outside after their protest, the trio said they had been ordered to stay away from parliament for a week.

    Diana, 19, said young people should be out enjoying themselves but were forced to protest because “politicians aren’t doing their job””

    “The reasons students are taking time off school is because when politicians aren’t listening to the educated, people who have been in the field of research and climate catastrophes for decades, and they’re mot listening to the evidence, what’s the point of me going to school?”

    Thompson, 16, added: “We’re not the ones that need to be taught a lesson here. It’s the politicians in this parliament who need to be taught the lesson that fossil fuels are not okay.”

    Wilkinson, who is also 16, said:

    “At the end of this century they won’t be alive but we will be watching our children suffer … because of the actions that the government is taking right now.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/nov/14/australia-politics-live-gambling-lobbyists-qanda-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-question-time-gaza-cost-of-living-labor-liberal-victoria-nsw-queensland

    If only their elders would hear them…

  14. I think that Archer might play the long game, toe the party line in the short term, ignore being demoted in pre-selection and try to be the person that the party will come back to when Make Australia Great Again fails.

  17. Kirsdarke @ 4.17

    You can add to that list (amplified by the media) the hysteria being unleashed about murderers and rapists being released from immigration detention after the High Court ruling.

    Absolutely nobody is pointing out that these people have all served their sentences and were in indefinite immigration detention waiting for the government to find somewhere to send them. Until the High Court decision (on constitutional grounds) these people were in a worse position than an Australian citizen who had been convicted of precisely the same crimes. Now they are in the same position (but without permanent residence rights).

    I am sick to death of the hysteria that surrounds non-citizens who commit crimes in Australia, compared to citizens who do so. If someone is raped or murdered by one of these people, it has the same impact on the victim as if the crime was committed by an Australian.

  20. Where governments fail to act, product liability lawyers may succeed.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2023/11/14/bunnings-engineered-stone?ahe=68c20f8a1ff8050662b9a732738c2d14adfa5265b7b42788b5f580e3bda38f20&lr_hash=&acid=445961

    I had hoped Labor might act faster than Bunnings on this. Bunnings have said they will ban engineered stone from Christmas, i.e. when they have sold off their current stocks. (At least somebody is thinking about the shareholders.)

  21. ‘Kirsdarke says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 4:21 pm

    In regards to Broadbent, is it known if he’s retiring at the next election? Or does he intend to contest Monash as an Independent (aka Russell Northe in the Victorian state seat of Morwell in 2018 after he quit the Nationals in 2017).

    Or is he keeping quiet about his intentions for the moment?’
    —————
    latter

  22. ‘Socrates says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 4:48 pm

    Where governments fail to act, product liability lawyers may succeed.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2023/11/14/bunnings-engineered-stone?ahe=68c20f8a1ff8050662b9a732738c2d14adfa5265b7b42788b5f580e3bda38f20&lr_hash=&acid=445961

    I had hoped Labor might act faster than Bunnings on this. Bunnings have said they will ban engineered stone from Christmas, i.e. when they have sold off their current stocks. (At least somebody is thinking about the shareholders.)’
    ———————–
    Pocock, Dutton and Lambie cherry-picked the IR legislation to strip it of its protections for gig workers and wage theft. They left in stone poisoning. The legislation was (a) first delayed and (b) blocked.
    Labor builds.
    The Coalition destroys.
    The Greens and the Xbenchers delay, block and obstruct.

  24. Second poll for today, as per Michael at 4.37PM.
    Roy Morgan.
    Sample 1650
    Period: Nov 6-12

    * ALP 30% (-1.5)
    * LNP 36.%% (+1.5)
    * GRN 13% (-0.5)
    * Others 20.5% (up 0.5%)

    RM often doesn’t separate the Pauline vote from Others
    Their 2PP split 50% evens (RM uses respondent allocated preferences)

    Utilising last elections’ preferences – 50.5% ALP (pretty much the same).

    Hopefully a Yougov this week. Newspoll possibly next Sunday, though may be the Sunday afterwards as they usually wait 3 weeks between polls.

  25. Alpha Zero: “I think that Archer might play the long game, toe the party line in the short term, ignore being demoted in pre-selection and try to be the person that the party will come back to when Make Australia Great Again fails.”

    In the extremely unlikely event that the Libs ever go looking for a moderate leader, I reckon they wouldn’t go for Bridget. If they had any sense, they’d go for Allegra: a woman of considerable policy substance, with a solid Liberal pedigree and strong ties to both the business community and the Italian community.

    But, really, I reckon that, given the balance of numbers within the party, they’ll just keep electing right-wingers as leader and hope either than Labor stuffs up big time or else, after 3 or 4 terms, the voters will put them into government purely on the basis that “it’s time for a change”.

    The bad news for them is that it might not work. The bad news for the rest of us is that it might.

  26. There has been an outbreak of polls over the past 10 days. Difficult to detect any trend as they seem to be all over the place. Treat with caution Essential Vision, Roy Morgan and Resolve Strategic as they were all way off the mark with the recent referendum. Resolve actually produced a monster poll of 4728 respondents (which should quite frankly have been more accurate).

    There is a PB poster perception that Resolve skews towards the ALP and I’m led to believe that Roy Morgan is now the in-house pollster for the LNP (though I will double check so sorry if I am wrong on this). I can’t believe either of these polling companies though, would produce such varied results to keep their client/base happy.

    Bludger track was updated recently, and it shows a continual drip away from the ALP. This is supported by a report on the Kevin Bonham site as well as MarktheBallots’ (Prof Bryan Palmer) website. There is obviously something the three of them are calculating, and picking up on.

    The only value I place in Roy Morgan is the trend, as it is produced pretty consistently every week.

    Links :

    Kevin Bonham – https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/11/poll-roundup-this-is-way-honeymoon-ended.html

    Mark the Ballot – https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2023/11/updated-localised-regression-charts.html

    Newspoll and another polling group known as Freshwater came out as the most accurate of pollsters. I will try and locate the Freshwater website and see if anything new there.
    We’ll see how polls track toward the end of the year.

  27. NSW stuns wind industry by suggesting hardly any sites are deemed "desirable" for large scale wind projects. One of the few areas deemed "suitable" is in anti-wind MP Angus Taylor's electorate.https://t.co/K8syNO846a— RenewEconomy (@renew_economy) November 14, 2023

    The most corrupt, backward and unprincipled state doing what it does.

  28. Rex Douglas @ Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 4:16 pm:

    “[quoting someone] That would really mean giving up on the north Sydney’s of this world and trying to pick up the outer urban MacArthur type seats

    [Rex] The Libs essentially already have Macarthur with Freelander.”
    =====================

    Rex, our little wheel comes full circle here on this blog! 😆
    Anyway – peace, bro. Macarthur is solid for Labor as long as Dr Freelander wants in, and otherwise it would lean marginally Liberal. Take seats like Macarthur away from Labor, and it just makes the Coalition’s job of retaking government that much easier.

  29. If god really existed he’d have been far better off skipping the whole mortal plane and supposed “free will” (how can you have free will when an all knowing being is the one who fashioned you into creation and thus knew exactly what was going to happen to you before he even started on the whole forsaken project) and just keeping everyone in his heavenly abode.

  31. “The most corrupt, backward and unprincipled state doing what it does.”
    I’m sure you know better than the people who put together the maps right?

  35. Rex Douglas @ Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 6:01 pm:

    “Don’t get between Dr Freelander and his S3 tax cut.”
    =========================

    Rex, I’ve risen above taking nibbles at lures you’ve dusted off from a year ago. But thanks for the memories!

  36. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 6:07 pm
    He’s off again. AirAlbo fuelling up for trip number 18 next week to San Francisco.

    ______________________________

    Asstute observation by our diplomatic correspondent.

  37. Yeah sure, off goes that constantly traveling showboaty Albo to an international summit, what a disgrace.

    Not like sensible and frugal Liberal Party Prime Ministers like Scott Morrison who only went overseas to maybe possibly learn about his own personal family history. I mean it’s not like he spent taxpayers’ money on that- oh, wait, he did.

    But Labor is automatically bad in everything always in everything it does, so that cancels that out, so there.

  38. I’ll give it to Albo. He’s found something about the job he’s actually good at – and he’s gonna milk it for all its worth and more.

  39. Interesting fact: Albo has done more overseas trips (18) in 18 months than Whitlam did in 3 years. Gough did 12 trips in his first 2 years.

  40. AirAlbo fuelling up for trip number 18 next week to San Francisco.

    Rex emulating a decade of coalition “foreign policy” by sitting on his arse shouting into a megaphone at people he doesn’t like. Good luck with that.

  41. Lars Von Trier @ #259 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 6:33 pm

    Interesting fact: Albo has done more overseas trips (18) in 18 months than Whitlam did in 3 years. Gough did 12 trips in his first 2 years.

    And there were how many international forums then compared with now?

    I also note you have reached back to a Labor PM you could negatively compare Prime Minister Albanese to. How about comparing him to the most recent Liberal Prime Ministers? You know, apples to apples. Afraid the comparison would be unflattering to your Tory muckers?

  42. Kirsdarke @ #257 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 6:28 pm

    Yeah sure, off goes that constantly traveling showboaty Albo to an international summit, what a disgrace.

    Not like sensible and frugal Liberal Party Prime Ministers like Scott Morrison who only went overseas to maybe possibly learn about his own personal family history. I mean it’s not like he spent taxpayers’ money on that- oh, wait, he did.

    But Labor is automatically bad in everything always in everything it does, so that cancels that out, so there.

    Not to mention the Liberal Prime Minister who went overseas when he should have been attending to a Natural Disaster at home-Scott Morrison. I can just imagine the freeloader saying to the pilot of Australia 1, or whatever cheesy name he called the Prime Ministerial plane, ‘James, Hawaii looks nice.’ Just like that famous Australian ad with the family in the spa on their jet. Not giving two hoots for the millions of native animals burning to death at home, or the thousands of families whose homes burnt to the ground.

    But yeah, try and piss on the Prime Minister who is fixing up the Coalition’s messes. That’s the way ‘Little Lib’ Rex Douglas and Liberal Lag, Lars Von Trier. We expect nothing less from you.

  47. C@tmomma @ Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 6:49 pm:

    “Pueo @ #266 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 6:47 pm

    I can just imagine the freeloader saying to the pilot of Australia 1, or whatever cheesy name he called the Prime Ministerial plane …

    ScoMo dubs his new plane ‘Shark One’
    https://www.afr.com/rear-window/scomo-dubs-his-new-plane-shark-one-20190908-p52p53

    Did it have an onboard spa? ”
    ==========================

    Or an onboard ‘prayer’ room? 😉 😉

  48. Sustainable Futue @ #203 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 2:47 pm

    “On what basis do the Libs get 34% of the votes.”

    They’re riding high with old white bigots (& just your run of-the-mill queensland bigot of any age) at present – My reading of the poll results are 2% of the RWNJ votes went to Libs, 2% of LNP went to ALP , and 2% of the ALP to the greens. Things are shifting in the right (left) direction.

    Wow, that’s interesting analysis, SF. Though you forgot to consider, probably because it’s impossible to know, how many went to the Teals as ‘Others’?

  49. Did it have an onboard spa? ”
    ==========================

    Or an onboard ‘prayer’ room? 😉 😉

    With the coalition’s cuts to government spending if you were flying on “Shark One”, praying was probably a good idea and/or you might be swimming with the fishes.

  50. Macarthur @ #265 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 6:46 pm

    Former PM Scott Morrison still has the edge on his successor in the O/S travel stakes, with 23 trips in his first 18 months as PM (Aug 2018 – Feb 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_prime_ministerial_trips_made_by_Scott_Morrison#:~:text=During%20his%20time%20in%20office,trips%20to%20eighteen%20sovereign%20countries.

    Rex, Lars – thoughts?

    Why do you think Lars Von Trier went all the way back to Whitlam?

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