Resolve Strategic: Labor 35, Coalition 30, Greens 13 (open thread)

Resolve Strategic finds an ongoing weakening in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, but little sign of damage to Labor on voting intention.

I’m not seeing any reporting on it in the Sydney Morning Herald or The Age, but the papers’ collective Resolve Political Monitor page features results of the latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll (hat tip to Nadia88 in comments), an early intimation of which was Saturday’s New South Wales state results. The federal primary vote shares have Labor down two on last month to 35%, the Coalition down one to 30%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation steady on 7%. I make this out to be 57-43 in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, little changed on last month, which maintains the pollster’s form as the strongest series for Labor.

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, his very good plus good performance rating being down five to 39% with poor plus very poor up three to 46%. Peter Dutton is respectively at 35% and 40%. Conversely, Peter Dutton records his best results yet from Resolve Strategic, being rated favourably by 35% (up five, although the previous result was down five on the one before) and unfavourably by 40% (down five on the last poll and three on the one before). Albanese leads 40-27 on preferred prime minister, in from 47-25 last time. The lack of accompanying reporting leaves us none the wiser on field work dates and sample size, but it was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of about 1600.

UPDATE: The Age/Herald report relates the poll was conducted the Wednesday to Sunday before last from a sample of 1602. It also has further results illustrating growing economic pessimism, with between 41% to 46% expecting conditions to worsen over various time frames from a month to a year, with the share expecting improvement increasing from 5% for a month from now to 23% for a year. The 70% who said they expected more interest rate rises this year were vindicated shortly after the poll was conducted, and fully 64% said they expected inflation to get worse in the near future, which is not strictly speaking what any economic forecaster expects.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

643 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 35, Coalition 30, Greens 13 (open thread)”

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  1. ‘Grime says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 12:32 pm

    Boerwar @ #480 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 12:25 pm

    Broadbent has been a permanent backbencher because on many issues he was a damp echo of the liberals formerly known as wets.

    He was also a bit of a maverick, holding the firm view that the horse juice was a covid cure.

    He was problematic to manage because, in the absence of anything by way of a ministry, parliamentary sec possie, or committee chairperson, they had very little control over him.

    The pre-selection count shows that the party members in Monash (McMillan as was) are significantly to the right of Broadbent.

    IMO he has a significant personal following in the electorate. He won the last election with a 2PP vote of 52.9%.

    Monash is in play at the next election.

    I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it went to the nats,the seat is full of conservative right wing nut jobs that always know what’s best for others.’
    ———————–
    There will be no sitting member so the Nats are entitled to run a candidate.
    The seat is self-evidently not ‘full’ of right wing nut jobs.
    Broadbent may yet decide to run as an Indie.

  2. I like the idea of Russell Broadbent being more outspoken now that he is no longer bound by party solidarity.

    Could Bridget Archer be the next cab off the rank? Even though she says that she wants to stay with the Liberals, I believe she is waiting to see how her own preselection battle turns out before she makes a move.

  3. Nath – I can see Deakin & Casey being in play.
    Monash is always a bit of a question mark -it always looks like it will be in play and then isn’t.
    Menzies was a real surprise last time and might be a shot.
    Flinders could be “tealed” but Labor has no real chance.
    That leaves Wannon which was almost “tealed” last time.

  4. Socrates @ #161 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 12:55 pm

    On AUKUS Rishi Sunail accidentally just said the quiet bit out loud.
    “Britain would be hard headed about its interests and security.”
    “[deals like AUKUS] would enable Britain to shape the world”.
    https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/11/14/sunak-david-cameron-foreign-secretary-aukus/?utm_campaign=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

    Rishi has ordered a MABA cap.

    You don’t think Australia is also capable of being hard-headed about its interests and security? Sad if you do think that Australia is such an easy pushover. When looked at dispassionately, Australia holds many cards that the UK no longer does. So I think we can hold our own in any fight over territory with the UK.

  5. Gregory Yetman, a New Jersey man who allegedly participated in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, has been denied bail after his arrest that followed a dramatic multi-day manhunt, reported News 12 on Monday.
    “Yetman’s attorney had tried to convince the judge to release him into the custody of his mother and brother,” reported Chris Keating. “Yetman’s mother was in the courtroom, along with one of her other sons. She did not offer any comment.”
    However, Judge Tonianne Bongionvanni was unconvinced, citing his attempts to evade authorities. “This was not a momentary lapse in judgment his conduct was reckless for almost two days,” she said. “His actions were unwise and short-sighted.”
    Yetman, who was a New Jersey National Guardsman at the time of the Capitol insurrection, is charged with assaulting officers; obstruction of law enforcement during civil disorder; entering and remaining in a restricted building or grounds; engaging in physical violence in a restricted building or grounds; and act of physical violence in the Capitol grounds or buildings. Prosecutors allege he used chemical spray on police trying to secure the Capitol complex. His fugitive status last week prompted a manhunt that involved the FBI and SWAT teams, although ultimately he surrendered to Monroe Township police without incident.

  6. Steve777 @ #378 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 12:35 pm

    ”I was wondering about that my self recently.How does god plan to get the headless ones, drawn/quartered,shark victims and vaporised Hiroshima /Nagasaki victims back together for the resurrection shuffle?”

    He has a copy of everyone’s DNA, so no worries growing a new body and brain. Also a backup recording of everyone’s memories / experiences, which he is able to upload into a new brain.

    Or, being outside time, he can work in all dimensions. So he downloads the content of someone’s brain and DNA from a point in their lives when it was intact.

    Why he would bother is another question.

    Would he be able to get the haemorrhoids exactly right though, and would he reverse circumcision, or apply it? DNA would be problematic for such important details.

  7. Nutrient recycling is a thing.
    Quite a few people in europe, and presumably elsewhere, embody particles which were previously the parts of other humans.

  8. Nutrient recycling is a thing.
    Quite a few people in europe, and presumably elsewhere, embody particles which were previously the parts of other humans

    Is this just a euphemistic way of saying cannibalism is a thing in Europe? Or has the Soylent Green era finally arrived?

  9. “Broadbent’s move only makes the Libs chances just that bit more difficult come the next election. They’re not travelling well at all since losing Aston and now Monash on top of the seats lost in 2022.”

    I should’ve also included the defection of the Nats Andrew Gee to this list. And despite the media’s messaging, Labor hasn’t lost a single member during this period and still leads in the polls.

  10. Fun fact about the newest cross-bencher…

    MP Russell Broadbent spent 20 years performing with his show band the Trutones before making the transition from the stage to the Parliament in 1990.

    The Trutones were the warm-up act for John Farnham, back in the days when he was known as Johnny.

    The band also appeared at campaign events for both Billy McMahon and Gough Whitlam in 1972.

    https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/5a32acd15f309b111945da5c93ebaaba?impolicy=wcms_crop_resize&cropH=1860&cropW=2794&xPos=94&yPos=94&width=862&height=575#image.jpg

    Front right, in the jumpsuit…

  11. B.S. Fairman says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 1:24 pm

    Nath – I can see Deakin & Casey being in play.
    ____
    If the Libs lose Deakin and Menzies then they wont have a seat in metro Melbourne. Which would be quite something. Has any of the major parties been without representation in a capital city before? Perhaps Brisbane, perhaps not. I don’t know.

  12. Has any of the major parties been without representation in a capital city before? Perhaps Brisbane, perhaps not. I don’t know.

    Do Canberra Darwin and Hobart count as capital cities?

  13. Catprog says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 2:02 pm

    Has any of the major parties been without representation in a capital city before? Perhaps Brisbane, perhaps not. I don’t know.

    Do Canberra Darwin and Hobart count as capital cities?
    ________
    I suppose but the bigger the better I reckon.

  14. Deakin, Menzies and Casey are probably in play. La Trobe isn’t and I still consider La Trobe (and Flinders) to be in metro Melbourne. If Gosford and Katoomba are statistically in metropolitan Sydney, I certainly consider Sorrento to be in metropolitan Melbourne!

    Brisbane never got to a point where there were no federal Labor seats, but it came close in 1996. I believe the Labor Party won a total of two seats in Queensland.

  15. @Catprog

    Labor only just barely held on to its last seat in Brisbane (Oxley) in the 1975 election, and held 2 seats there in 1996 (Brisbane and Rankin).

    On the other hand, in the 1943 election, the UAP was wiped out in Perth and Adelaide.

    Other than that, the major capitals (excluding Canberra, Darwin and Hobart) have always had at least one seat held by either major party, except maybe pre-1943 back when there were only 75 seats in total.

  16. MelbourneMammoth says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 2:07 pm

    Deakin, Menzies and Casey are probably in play. La Trobe isn’t and I still consider La Trobe (and Flinders) to be in metro Melbourne. If Gosford and Katoomba are statistically in metropolitan Sydney, I certainly consider Sorrento to be in metropolitan Melbourne!
    ______
    Ah I forgot about La Trobe. It’s kinda half urban, but fair enough. Flinders is designated Rural by the AEC.

  17. If the omnipotent, omniscient and omnipresent god of the Abrahamic religions truly exists (which I personally don’t believe: my spirituality runs in a different direction) then he can do anything.

    Putting vaporised people from Hiroshima back together would be a piece of piss for him.

    Which is why the traditional Christian obsession with burial – not to mention embalming and what have you- rather than cremation is totally silly.

    It’s one of many instances I have encountered in which even deeply religious people clearly don’t have the courage of their convictions.

    Read about the Arian controversy of the 4th century CE, which was all about whether or not Jesus and the Holy Spirit were made of exactly the same substance as God. People were excommunicated, exiled and killed over this.

    And yet, if one truly knows the Dharma, then one can fully appreciate that it would be possible for Jesus and the Holy Spirit to simultaneously bothe be part of God and fully separate from God. In other words, like the Optus ad with the chicken salt or regular salt, you can have Both. (Of course, with Optus, you are more likely to end up with neither, but that’s another story. )

    Hegel made a similar sort of point. With a truly cosmic sense of the numinous., all things and no things are possible. (Actually, when I come to think of it, that sums up Optus quite well.)

    End of stream of consciousness. Return to normal programming.

  18. Cat

    “ You don’t think Australia is also capable of being hard-headed about its interests and security? Sad if you do think that Australia is such an easy pushover. When looked at dispassionately, Australia holds many cards that the UK no longer does. So I think we can hold our own in any fight over territory with the UK.”

    Sad for me to say No, I don’t. And that is from a combination of observing current events, reading history, personal work experience, and experience of personal friends who have or do serve in ADF or Defense. (I am not against those groups).

    We followed USA blindly everywhere ever since Vietnam, including into Afghanistan and Iraq, un-winnable wars that had nothing to do with us. In Afghanistan even under Labor, we could not bring ourselves to admit defeat and leave till after the Americans decided to leave. Then we left most of our Afghan staff behind to fend for themselves against the Taliban. Hard headed?

    I see the problem as being in Australia’s national security leadership and it is two-fold. First Howard replaced much of the senior leadership with classic ladder climbers who bowed to government whilst donning three stars. Some are also kiss-up kick-down bullies, as the treatment of whistle blowers demonstrates.

    This group is very Anglo-centric and far less culturally and ethnically diverse than the Australian population. They seem divided between those either far too close to USA to be objective, or far too close to UK to be objective. This leads them to recommend very narrow acquisition and deployment decisions.

    The second problem is the right wing elements of the Liberal and Labor parties, who gravitate to holding the Defense portfolio when in government. Most of these people are ideologically committed but know nothing about the defence logistics or technology side, and easily get caught out approving bad recommendations. They then move on before the bad news emerges, leading to a high turnover of Ministers.

    Ministers seem to be too easily captured by the State funded but no longer independent defense think tanks in Australia (ASPI and others). They usually end up thinking Defense should decide foreign policy, rather than vice versa. In too many cases, ex-ministers then take post-politics positions as lobbyists with defence primes, further compromising decision making integrity.

    Short term ministers also never fix the structural flaws in defence, like lack of detailed reporting of finance and progress in acquisitions. This leads to mistakes being hidden rather than fixed before it is too late.

    Thus with Marles’ defence review, there was consideration of the systems and ships to be bought, but no consideration of the acquisition process, reporting and budget process, or the desperate need to rebuild internal expertise. The overuse of external consultants was identified and halted, but what is the structural solution?

    IMO the last truly competent Defense Minister in Australia was Kim Beasley.

  19. Essential Polling continues with their nonsensical TPP+ measure which is completely meaningless. It doesn’t show anything extra but contains less information than a traditional TPP. So it should be labelled TPP- instead.

  20. Oakeshott country says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 11:56 am
    Although, it does raise the question of how resurrection occurs.
    The Zapruder film shows that JFK would have very little cerebral cortex left and that which was removed at autopsy has been lost by the national archives. So how do all the bits come back together?

    __________________________________________________________
    What was left of JFK’s brain was reportedly claimed by his brother, Robert Kennedy, who, understandably, did not want any remains of his brother to become a grisly artifact. Strictly speaking, the Kennedy family had no right to do that, however understandable their feelings might have been, but few were willing to oppose them at such an anguished time.
    Robert Kennedy apparently never told anyone what he did with his brother’s remains before he himself was assassinated in 1968. It’s assumed he either buried or burned them.
    Unfortunately it’s also given rise to one of the many bizarre conspiracy theories that his brain was removed as part of an elaborate over-up.

  21. On what basis do the Libs get 34% of the votes. The “do fuck all but oppose party” is the most popular. The punters want their heads looking at.

  22. Boerwar @ #508 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 1:36 pm

    Nutrient recycling is a thing.
    Quite a few people in europe, and presumably elsewhere, embody particles which were previously the parts of other humans.

    Tangent alert, there’s a series of stories by Jack Vance grouped under the title ‘The Tales of the Dying Earth’. Human civilization has been around so many unimaginable eons that literally every piece of the earth has had someone die on it, and everything sits on the dust of previous people.

    Within one of the tales there is a sect of people who refuse to step on the remains of previously alive people, and so employ magic to hover a few inches off the ground.

  23. Gosford and the seats of Robertson and Dobell are Regional seats, not Outer Metropolitan. That would apply to seats based around Campbelltown, Penrith and Richmond.

  24. steve davis @ #495 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 1:06 pm

    Sunak is on borrowed time as PM. It will be up to Starmer to carry AUKUS on.

    Possibly sooner than people may think. Suella Braverman is taking a leaf out of the Boris playbook and doing her best to be sacked. From the backbenches she’s likely to launch a leadership challenge.

    I dont think Suella wants to be LOTO, though she might take it as a consolation prize, she knows the Cons will be out of power for at least a decade and probably realizes this is her last best chance to be British PM.

    If this does play out I expect Sunak to call an election rather than capitulate the PM position to Braverman.

  25. Catprog @ #515 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 2:02 pm

    Has any of the major parties been without representation in a capital city before? Perhaps Brisbane, perhaps not. I don’t know.

    Do Canberra Darwin and Hobart count as capital cities?

    Hobart has a symphony orchestra and a concert hall that divides local opinions on how shit it is (the hall not the orchestra), I think that’s the benchmark for capital city status.

  26. 34 LNP, 32 ALP, 34 Neither of these.

    Maybe Albo will be the last ever PM of a majority government?

    It doesn’t look like the trend of lower votes for the two party duopoly is going to reverse.


  27. Micksays:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 1:27 pm
    @socrates,

    I read your MABA cap as “Make Australia British Again”, which sort of works in the context!

    That makes absolute sense Mick. Post of the day IMO. 🙂

  28. Steve

    “ Sunak is on borrowed time as PM. It will be up to Starmer to carry AUKUS on.”

    There may be an opportunity to rescue AUKUS from its current trajectory if/when Starmer wins. This assumes Starmer is willing to negotiate a UK jobs bonanza promised under AUKUS.

    In a way the AUKUS jobs bonanza is a bit like the land area of Israel/Palestine. The same jobs have been promised to UK, US and SA workers, just as the same land area has been promised to Jewish settlers and Palestinian residents.

    If Sunak stalls the election till as late as it an go, it won’t be till late 2024 in which case there will be very little time to change AUKUS before the next US POTUS election. If Trump wins in 2024, Xanthippe will cry, and all bets are off for AUKUS.

    As Cronus suggested, it would be very desirable to broaden AUKUS before the 2024 POTUS election. Japan or South Korea would be an excellent first choice.

  29. “On what basis do the Libs get 34% of the votes.”

    They’re riding high with old white bigots (& just your run of-the-mill queensland bigot of any age) at present – My reading of the poll results are 2% of the RWNJ votes went to Libs, 2% of LNP went to ALP , and 2% of the ALP to the greens. Things are shifting in the right (left) direction.


  30. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 1:29 pm
    Gregory Yetman, a New Jersey man who allegedly participated in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, has been denied bail after his arrest that followed a dramatic multi-day manhunt, reported News 12 on Monday.
    “Yetman’s attorney had tried to convince the judge to release him into the custody of his mother and brother,” reported Chris Keating. “Yetman’s mother was in the courtroom, along with one of her other sons. She did not offer any comment.”
    However, Judge Tonianne Bongionvanni was unconvinced, citing his attempts to evade authorities. “This was not a momentary lapse in judgment his conduct was reckless for almost two days,” she said. “His actions were unwise and short-sighted.”
    Yetman, who was a New Jersey National Guardsman at the time of the Capitol insurrection, is charged with assaulting officers; obstruction of law enforcement during civil disorder; entering and remaining in a restricted building or grounds; engaging in physical violence in a restricted building or grounds; and act of physical violence in the Capitol grounds or buildings. Prosecutors allege he used chemical spray on police trying to secure the Capitol complex. His fugitive status last week prompted a manhunt that involved the FBI and SWAT teams, although ultimately he surrendered to Monroe Township police without incident.

    “Yetman, who was a New Jersey National Guardsman”. Makes you wonder, doesn’t it?

  31. Beverages giant The Coca-Cola Company is fighting more than $170 million in taxes imposed by the Australian Tax Office, which alleges profits were diverted offshore via favourable deals with its local affiliate for branding, trademarks and formulas.
    The ATO assessed The Coca-Cola Company (Coke) owes $173.8 million in diverted profits tax for the combined 2018 and 2019 years. The ATO issued two penalty notices to the global company in August 2022, for $85.2 million and $88.6 million respectively, which are now being challenged in the Federal Court of Australia.
    The diverted profits tax was passed by parliament in 2017 with the aim of clawing back money multinational companies were shipping offshore from their Australian operations without paying a fair level of local tax. The new tax set a 40 per cent tax on profits the ATO deemed were diverted offshore.
    The US-based Coca-Cola Company owned just under 31 per cent of the ASX-listed Coca-Cola Amatil during the years assessed by the ATO. In 2021, Coca-Cola Amatil was acquired for $9.8 billion by Coca-Cola European Partners, whose largest shareholder with 19.2 per cent is The Coca-Cola Company.
    The ATO assessed Coke had received a so-called diverted profit tax benefit because Coca-Cola Amatil did not pay Coke for the right to use intellectual property, thereby avoiding any liabilities related to royalty withholding tax. The 2018 and 2019 accounts of The Coca-Cola Company and Coca-Cola Amatil were audited by big four firm EY.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/coca-cola-fights-ato-over-170m-offshore-tax-battle-20231113-p5ejmd

  32. Interesting – the McBride prosecution case is that McBride actually leaked because he was AGAINST investigation of the war crimes cases and was trying to fuck up the investigation, not be a champion whistleblower.

    Well, well. If that sticks won’t that set a cat among the pigeons who without knowing anything about the case have demanded prosecution of McBride be dropped.

  33. @TPOF: “I’m a bit surprised by Broadbent’s decision to go to the cross-bench. It doesn’t seem to be a high matter of principle, but rather a dummy spit.”

    Total dummy spit. He probably said something like “if you dare dump me in pre-selections I’ll go to the crossbench!” and now he’s making good the threat as you do, but he’ll still vote their way on 99% of stuff so who cares.

    I’m convinced that he has a big personal vote factor there who respects a Liberal with a little social conscience and willingness to cross the floor, which puts the seat big time in play.

  34. The preselection battles in the Liberal party have only just begun. Dutton has done well in more or less keeping the party together. The next 6 months will see his ability to maintain that control tested to the limit.

    We’re starting to see the cracks appear today. We all speculate the Bridget Archer may go down the same route. How many other seats are going to split off in the coming few months?

  35. The Coalition: a shower of misfits.

    Howard assimilating, Abbott climate killing, Abetz knifing, Joyce snouting, Paterson snouting, Morrison freelancing, Price trans-deforming, Reynolds suing, Joyce carping, Dutton saving whales (!), Littleproud pushing the nuclear button, Broadbent CROSSbenching…

  36. I see that Pocock has succeeded in ensuring that boss wage thieves are free to continue plying their despicable trade.

    Pocock has consistently sought to water down IR legislation – to the disbenefit of Australia’s most vulnerable workers.

    His background is, after all, a bosses’ background.

  37. Typical bad faith politicking by Dutton’s mob in trying to score points off of the High Court decision.

    Whatever it takes is their mantra – and will go to any depths required.

  38. Broadbent made a common sense decision to leave the Liberal Party. It was a very clear message sent to him by the preselection voters.

  39. 34 LNP, 32 ALP, 34 Neither of these.

    Maybe Albo will be the last ever PM of a majority government?

    @Lars Von Trier

    I’d been very cautious making a prediction like that. Voters have no problem going back to major parties when it suits them. Jumping on the wagon for a landslide win or when a catastrophe happens (Natural disaster, Foreign conflict, health epidemic etc) voters tend to go back to the incumbent (major parties).

    I see where you have picked this up from though Lars. Greens made a random comment in the media of wanting to share power with Labor. Newscorp then ran a series of articles warning of the dangers of this in attempt to damage Labor. Even though Labor has a majority in its own right and Labor has ruled this out. Its basically Newscorp creating an issue to damage Labor where there wasn’t one to begin with.

  40. steve davis says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 2:20 pm
    On what basis do the Libs get 34% of the votes. The “do fuck all but oppose party” is the most popular. The punters want their heads looking at.

    _________________________________________

    The “punters” are 34% of the thousand or so respondents to the poll. Many of them might not even thought about who they would vote for because the election is NOT the next day. So the response is more of a mood test than a genuinely predictive poll (even allowing for events and campaigning between now and the next election).

    So, interesting to see how things are going, but that’s all. My take is that the Opposition is channelling a bit of public dissatisfaction with their own financial circumstances, magnified by dishonestly malicious coalition campaigns about Albanese and the Government not caring about ordinary Australians, blah, blah, blah.

    However, for a mid-term poll against an Opposition that can just oppose and oppose and hope that something turns up (like a few hundred boats) the government has nothing to concern itself with. Albanese may not be the kind of guy who flips the switch to vaudeville when required, but Dutton has nothing to sell the nation but himself. Ugh.

  41. Judging from essential, looks like Resolve overshot Labor lead by 8%. 57-43 resolve and 53-47 essential.
    Resolve either need to pack it all up or have a serious look as they have sampling issues.

  42. michael says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 3:38 pm
    Judging from essential, looks like Resolve overshot Labor lead by 8%. 57-43 resolve and 53-47 essential.
    Resolve either need to pack it all up or have a serious look as they have sampling issues.

    ___________________________________________

    Scientific polling analysis on the right. I don’t like that result. That poll has bad methodology.

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