I’m not seeing any reporting on it in the Sydney Morning Herald or The Age, but the papers’ collective Resolve Political Monitor page features results of the latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll (hat tip to Nadia88 in comments), an early intimation of which was Saturday’s New South Wales state results. The federal primary vote shares have Labor down two on last month to 35%, the Coalition down one to 30%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation steady on 7%. I make this out to be 57-43 in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, little changed on last month, which maintains the pollster’s form as the strongest series for Labor.
Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, his very good plus good performance rating being down five to 39% with poor plus very poor up three to 46%. Peter Dutton is respectively at 35% and 40%. Conversely, Peter Dutton records his best results yet from Resolve Strategic, being rated favourably by 35% (up five, although the previous result was down five on the one before) and unfavourably by 40% (down five on the last poll and three on the one before). Albanese leads 40-27 on preferred prime minister, in from 47-25 last time. The lack of accompanying reporting leaves us none the wiser on field work dates and sample size, but it was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of about 1600.
UPDATE: The Age/Herald report relates the poll was conducted the Wednesday to Sunday before last from a sample of 1602. It also has further results illustrating growing economic pessimism, with between 41% to 46% expecting conditions to worsen over various time frames from a month to a year, with the share expecting improvement increasing from 5% for a month from now to 23% for a year. The 70% who said they expected more interest rate rises this year were vindicated shortly after the poll was conducted, and fully 64% said they expected inflation to get worse in the near future, which is not strictly speaking what any economic forecaster expects.
Sample size of about 1600 —> margin of error about 2.5%.
Inflation. Interest rates. Pain in the pocket.
From the previous thread:
Sigil:
I saw Faith No More live at one of the final Soundwaves about 6-7 years ago, they were amazing.
I sincerely hope Albo’s personal rating turns around in the next poll. I thought his performance was excellent in his recent trip to USA, China and South Pacific.
The Coalition also being down one suggests this is still a good result for Labor.
This is an article about naval shipbuilding but fear not it is not about submarines (although it does concern Australia’s prospective sub builder, BAE).
The article documents potential (and actual) conflicts of interest in the panel that selected the Hunter Frigate for the previous government, a decision which was recently heavily criticised by the ANAO audit earlier this year.
https://consortiumnews.com/2023/07/06/sinking-billions-undergunned-overpriced/
And Part Two
https://declassifiedaus.org/2023/07/08/sinking-billions-revolving-doors/
It highlights that the contract (with BAE) was negotiated by a former BAE exec working for defence. The contract included $6 billion for design development of a supposedly “mature design”. By comparison, the Canadian navy contract for design development of their version of the same ship was $185 million.
Labor MP Julian Hill asked some very good questions of the BAE Australia CEO in the last Parliamentary Audit committee hearing in October. We need to see answers.
If Labor is looking to save some money, Hunter might be a good place to start. Adelaide shipyard workers will be furious if there is not an arrangement for an immediate replacement they can shift to working on.
Night all.
BT at 9.02 pm (previous thread) re Monash
“Speaking anonymously, a Nationals MP told the ABC that Mr Broadbent [i.e. his loss of preselection] opened up the possibility of a three-way contest at the next election and that the Nationals were likely to aggressively campaign for the seat.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-12/russell-broadbent-monash-member-loses-preselection/103084618
The swing against Broadbent in Moe was less than 2% in 2022, i.e. less than half the seat wide average.
The biggest swing against Broadbent in 2022 was in the small rural musical town of Darnum, at 15%.
The most significant large swings against Broadbent were in the very large Warragul (7.6%) and Wonthaggi (5.3%) pre-polls, whereas the swing to Labor in the Moe pre-poll was less than 1%.
Particularly if the Nats campaign aggressively with Barnaby on top, Monash could be a Labor gain.
Thanks for hat tip WB!
Yep, I’m a poll maniac.
Roy Morgan and Essential should report in by Tues arvo. We’re overdue for a YouGov poll and most likely a Newspoll next Sunday evening. Should be a busy week.
F Bloody Brilliant. This is the type of poll coverage we need, baby. You lil ripper. Come in spinner. I’m putting next months wages on ALP @ $1-60. yippee
Find it most difficult to reconcile a PM slightly in net negative territory with an implied 57-43 lead. And the former is much what others are getting while the latter is not.
And yet, if you watch the commercial TV station’s news you would think Labor was terminal…….
The Age hasn’t even reported on their own poll! Independent? Always?
You can say what you want say about this poll, some figures don’t make sense. A complete outlier compared to the other 5 polls I just looked at. All the Labor luvvies can lock it in, I think its bullshit but we have to wait on other polls to whether confirm Resolve or otherwise its a complete slab of crap.
Some worrying maritime news this morming… looks like the DP World cyberattack on Friday may take weeks to resolve so they are in talks with competitors to see if they can assist in moving containers.
A combined gastro-COVID outbreak on the cruise ship GRAND PRINCESS which is about to dock in Adelaide will have authorities worried. More so as C19 cases in SA have jumped significantly in the ladt week.
IIRC there was a gastro outbreak on the DISNEY WONDER that docked in Melbourne over the weekend.
‘I’m not seeing any reporting on it in the Sydney Morning Herald or The Age …’
57 – 43 to Labor doesn’t fit FauxFox’s preferred narrative.
(Even if, as preceding posters have noted, that 2PP number looks like an outlier.)
From the previous thread:
My son is going to see a Dwarf Metal band soon. And they were going to see a Pirate Metal band but Covid came along.
Idk, are The Red Hot Chilli Peppers, ‘Metal’? I think so. We both love them at our place.
Also, I guess I go back to the Gods of Metal when I think about who I loved…Deep Purple, Led Zeppelin, Iron Butterfly, Black Sabbath. I did love a bit of Glam Metal as well…The Sweet, Marc Bolan and T Rex, David Bowie.
Was Lou Reed, ‘Metal’? I think so. He did have an album called, ‘Metal Machine Music’.
Then you have to consider whether bands like Husker Du, Sonic Youth, Henry Rollins and Black Flag are ‘Metal’?
Aerosmith always were. I loved Aerosmith. Got to see them go by in a blur, backstage at the Perth Ent Cent. 😉
Also, about the polls, I’m going with the American observer, Molly Jong Fast, who said that these days they’re skewed towards people who answer their mobile phone to a number they’re not familiar with, or bother to answer an online poll they get via their email. So, in other words, don’t put your money on them.
Here’s some interesting data. Overlay it with where the loudest voices against against Offshore Wind Farms are:
Snowy Monaro, Shoalhaven, Kiama and Port Stephens also have the next highest levels of short-term rentals in NSW, according to the government’s latest figures.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/short-term-rental-review-targets-90-000-homes-20231110-p5ej4b.html
Behind every astroturf community group is a bunch of investment property, short term rental Air B’n’B owners who don’t want the value of their properties diminished by those howwible wind turbines?
Even allowing for a 2.5% margin of error, 57-43 doesn’t feel right. Margin of error, using a 95% confidence interval, means that the real value is 95% likely to be within the margin of error of the observed one. This is one of the 5%.
Or, or course, the poll might just be wrong because, for example, the sample is not representative of the voters for whatever reason.
Here’s the SMH report on the poll:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-cut-support-for-labor-as-cost-of-living-concerns-mount-20231109-p5eius.html
C@t: “And they were going to see a Pirate Metal band”
My cousins’ sons have toured internationally with their Pirate Rock band.
(Catchphrase: ‘Ahoy!’)
Confessions says: ‘Here’s the SMH report on the poll’
Headline: ‘Voters cut support for Labor …’
Hmm … Labor down 2 points on primaries, Coalition down 1, Greens up 1: all within the margin of error.
And 2PP a crushing (albeit unlikely) 57 – 43.
OS:
Reminiscent of how the Australian would headline Newspoll back in the day!
To be fair, David Crowe does point this out about Labor’s Primary Vote:
While the changes were within the margin of error for this survey, the findings confirm a steep slide in support for Labor from its primary vote of 42 per cent in May.
Why Trump’s three courtroom tactics have been a total ‘bust’: columnist
In a Sunday, November 12 column by Los Angeles Times Washington columnist Doyle McManus, he argues ex-President Donald Trump’s strategy to portray himself as a martyr amid his four indictments may have “cemented his hold on the Republican presidential nomination,” but “as a legal strategy, it’s been a bust.”
The MAGA hopeful’s three courtroom tactics — to denounce, disrupt, delay – have not helped any of his cases, McManus emphasizes.
First, the columnist writes, “Trump has denounced prosecutors as thugs, judges as unfair and his indictments as illegitimate, which hasn’t solved any of his problems in court.”
Second, the former president has been “intent on disrupting the state’s civil suit against him on allegations of financial fraud,” recently saying to Judge Arthur Engoron, “This is a very unfair trial. We have a very hostile judge.”
And finally, “In two federal criminal cases, the former president’s main goal has been to delay,” McManus writes, noting, “If Trump regains the presidency, he could escape accountability by ordering the Justice Department to halt its prosecutions. So, timing matters — a lot.”
However, his attorneys have failed “in postponing either federal case,” the columnist adds.
According to McManus, former federal prosecutor Paul Rosenzweig insists, “Even if he loses every legal battle, Trump’s scorched-earth tactics could still have a corrosive effect.”
The ex-prosecutor added, “He’s slowly eroding faith in the rule of law, at a terrible cost that will reap the whirlwind.”
McManus notes, “No court has decided whether former presidents are immune from prosecution, because no other former president has been indicted. If the issue reaches the Supreme Court, that would almost surely delay a trial for months.”
Rosenzweig said, “I’d guess they could decide it by July 1. But even if they expedite, the Supreme Court is not expeditious.
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-legal-tactics
I did comment on that article, asking, if the Coalition were preferred in dealing with the Cost of Living, could a journalist actually (have the guts to) ask them exactly how THEY would do it? Introduce price controls at the supermarket or petrol bowser? Take over the Reserve Bank again and start setting interest rates themselves? Regulate the runaway Housing market? You know, actually ask them some hard questions.
Looking at the Resolve poll demographics, some interesting data
Men rate ALP more highly than women – 37 to 34
In the PPM, despite Albo leading Spud 40-27 overall, in Queensland – the Potato is ahead 36-34
sprocket_,
Dutton is from Queensland. Queenslanders are parochial. I’m surprised he’s not further ahead there, actually.
I think Steve777 hit the nail on the head: 5% chances do come up from time to time (one time in every 20, usually). I’ll be waiting for BludgerTrack to update with this result and see how things stand then.
How’s that pivot back to cost of living issues going for Albo?
There’s a seperate article for subscribers only by David Crowe, where he correctly observes this:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/grounded-pm-brought-back-to-earth-on-economy-20231112-p5ejbb.html
Peter Dutton and the Coalition, all hot air, and No answers.
”The federal primary vote shares have Labor down two on last month to 35%, the Coalition down one to 30%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation steady on 7%.”
So primary vote shares last time were Labor 37, Coalition 31, Greens 12, One Nation 7, with “someone else” up two from 13.
Using certain assumptions regarding preferences, Labor 2PP was 37+0+10+2.7+6.5 = 57.2 last time. This time it’s 35+0+10.8+2.7+7.5 = 56.
Basically nothing much has changed, although that’s not much of a headline. The narrative could just as easily have been “Voters desert major parties” as there was an apparent shift of 3% from the “duopoly” to minors.
The real question is can a PM survive for an extended period of time with a substantial net negative rating?
Abbott proved an opposition leader could do it, maybe Albo can do it as PM ( Dutton’s similar negatives probably help?)
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
David Crowe outlines the findings of the Resolve poll.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-cut-support-for-labor-as-cost-of-living-concerns-mount-20231109-p5eius.html
Halfway through their term, the ‘teal’ MPs look here to stay – and may present a huge challenge in 2025, writes Mark Kenny.
https://theconversation.com/halfway-through-their-term-the-teal-mps-look-here-to-stay-and-may-present-a-huge-challenge-in-2025-216528
“Experts are in furious agreement: Australia needs tax reform. So why aren’t the major political parties talking about it?”, writes Rachel Clun. (My answer: the mainstream Australian media.)
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/higher-gst-negative-gearing-changes-why-we-ve-got-to-talk-about-tax-20231110-p5ej5j.html
Sean Kelly posits that the increasingly authoritarian Trump could represent a test for Dutton and the Liberal party.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/with-trump-ahead-in-the-polls-a-test-looms-for-dutton-s-liberal-party-20231112-p5ejbv.html
Alan Kohler tells us about Australia’s deceptive and dangerous climate-change con game.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2023/11/13/climate-con-australia-kohler
Victorian shadow minister for education Matthew Bach says in this op-ed that ‘selfish, rich geriatrics’ are holding the Liberal Party back from young voters.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/selfish-rich-geriatrics-are-holding-the-liberal-party-back-from-young-voters-20231112-p5ejcl.html
The Australian’s Joe Kelly writes that the nation’s leading Jewish organisations have condemned Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s call for a ceasefire in the Middle East, warning there can be no resolution while Hamas retains control of Gaza and cautioning Labor against embracing narratives that “demonise the state of Israel”. So, what SHOULD Australia’s position be?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/australia-pushing-for-ceasefire-in-israelhamas-conflict-reveals-penny-wong/news-story/2d6cdcae24f98362d13310c854096353?amp=
Josh Gordon and Royce Millar report that some experts are saying that the new-look SEC will fail to deliver on promises to claw back profit from greedy energy companies and give it back to Victorians through lower bills.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/sec-can-t-compete-in-cut-throat-power-game-to-lower-bills-experts-warn-20231112-p5ejb4.html
“Do we really need to take supplements? It’s complicated, writes Alice Callahan. (Short answer: sometimes medically advisable – mostly not).
https://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/do-we-really-need-to-take-supplements-it-s-complicated-20231106-p5ehu2.html
State and federal governments have starved councils of the $1 billion a year needed to maintain Australia’s 680,000-kilometre network of roads, the Grattan Institute says.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-1b-pothole-in-spending-on-nation-s-roads-20231110-p5ej5t.html
Alcohol, tobacco, food and gambling industries are among those that lobby government ministers and their advisors to help shape public policy. But when we looked for details of who’s lobbying whom in Australia, we found government lobbyist registers largely left us in the dark, write these concerned contributors to The Conversation.
https://theconversation.com/whos-lobbying-whom-when-it-comes-to-alcohol-tobacco-food-and-gambling-firms-were-in-the-dark-216835
George Brandis says that dictators know why democracies have a poor record of winning modern wars.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/democracies-have-a-poor-record-of-winning-modern-wars-dictators-know-why-20231112-p5ejc1.html
The jury remains out on hydrogen. Yet a massive new fossil fuel project planned for Victoria’s Western Port Bay, to supply energy for Japan, is subsidised by state and federal governments. Sarah Russell and Jane Carnegie report on the risks to the local environment and the planet.
https://michaelwest.com.au/hesc-coal-to-hydrogen-project-in-victorias-western-port-to-supply-energy-for-japan/
The good news from Katy Gallagher’s second progress report on APS reform presented at ANU last week is that there will be a second Public Service Act Amendment Bill in the new year containing much more substantive reform than the disappointing Bill before the Parliament at the moment, opines Andrew Podger.
https://johnmenadue.com/serious-reform-now-firmly-on-the-agenda/
Nobody reads the fine print, and companies like Qantas know it, explains consumer advocate Gerard Brody.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/nobody-reads-the-fine-print-and-companies-like-qantas-know-it-20231108-p5eifg.html
Queen Elizabeth II expressed “much sympathy” with governor-general Peter Hollingworth in response to mounting criticism over how he handled child sexual abuse claims while he was Anglican archbishop of Brisbane, once secret vice-regal letters reveal.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/queens-sympathy-for-hollingworth-over-child-abuse-scandals/news-story/11f2029b9c5edda1886f69b8f83a8096?amp=
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Peter Broelman
Jim Pavlidis
Megan Herbert
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
From the last thread
>nadia88 says:
>Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 10:04 pm
>(Forget about QLD, as the LNP are at the high water mark, meaning there are no more seats in QLD they can pick up).
LNP 39.84% at election. Poll 36% = -3 or -4 swing against
LABOR 27.42% at election. Poll 31% = +3 or +4 swing too.
Brisbane could become a ALP vs LNP two party.
Griffith would probably be a ALP vs GRN
Not enough to affect Ryan.
From the LNP
Dickson, Longman, Bonner & Leichhardt may be winnable for the ALP.
Thank you, Catprog and nadia88. Where there’s life in the old party, the ALP, there’s hope. 🙂
Sean Kelly makes an astute observation. I would call it the 2 ends of the horseshoe joining, or the Right’s effort to feel the pain of the Precariat and harvest their votes:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/with-trump-ahead-in-the-polls-a-test-looms-for-dutton-s-liberal-party-20231112-p5ejbv.html
To which I wrote this reply:
Whilst you might say, Sean, that the Right at their conference in London recently were undergoing a paradigm shift, I’d put it differently. I would call it the 2 ends of the horseshoe joining, or the Right’s effort to feel the pain of the Precariat and harvest their votes.
As all I see when the Reactionary Right, as exemplified by our former Coalition Prime Ministers and future Coalition wannabe Ministers such as Jacinta Price and Andrew Hastie, is a reversion to the mean, as far as the policies they actually govern with. With the emphasis on ‘mean’.
I’ll believe they’ve had a change of heart when I see even one policy announced during an election campaign that will benefit Uber drivers, or any worker at all, really. Until then it’s just another fig leaf to cover the Reactionary Religious Right’s true intentions. Which they never openly publicise.
‘A stupid strategy’: Trump’s sending his kids into a ‘perjury trap’ in fraud trial return
During an appearance on MSNBC on Sunday morning, former Donald Trump lawyer Michael Cohen agreed with host Katie Phang that it is reckless for Donald Trump to make his children take the stand again in the $250 million Trump Organization financial fraud trial.
With Donald Trump Jr. expected to be the first witness on Monday as the Trump legal team mounts its defense, Trump’s former “fixer” claimed it made no sense to put Don Jr., Eric and Ivanka in the position of possibly perjuring themselves when Judge Arthur Engoron has already ruled there was fraud in the case.
“Judge Engoron already made findings of fraud,” host Phang began before prompting her guest with, “Is Don Jr. testifying because Trump wants him to and lawyers like Alina Habba and Chris Kise are too scared or incompetent to tell Donald Trump ‘no’?”
Claiming Donald Trump Jr and his brother Eric have both already flirted with perjury when they were grilled by the prosecution, he continued, “What I will tell you is that Donald Trump, he has to know that this is a stupid strategy. It’s only a strategy that benefits him, for whatever reason, and I don’t know the answer, it can only benefit Donald.”
“Which is interesting because, as a parent, you would think that his goal would be to protect his children,” he added. “Instead, what he is doing is he is putting them in the line of fire. There all perjury traps. None of them, including Ivanka, who has no idea what’s going on anywhere.”
Lars: “The real question is can a PM survive for an extended period of time with a substantial net negative rating?”
Keating survived … and thrived:
“John Hewson led Paul Keating as Preferred Prime Minister for most of 1992, and took the lead again during the 1993 campaign. He was PPM in six campaign Newspolls in a row (albeit by an average of only 3.3 points) but lost, and in the end it wasn’t all that close.”
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2012/12/why-preferred-prime-ministerpremier.html
Lars Von Trier @ #28 Monday, November 13th, 2023 – 7:04 am
At 57-43 TPP, you would have to say the pivot is going along nicely…
Eighty asylum seekers being held in immigration detention were released almost immediately following last week’s High Court ruling that they were being kept unlawfully.
Immigration Minister Andrew Giles confirmed the releases on ABC Radio National, saying the Commonwealth had argued against the outcome but was prepared for it, and those people were now in the community with appropriate visas.
Mr Giles said community safety was the first priority, and the Australian Federal Police and Border Force were involved in the process.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-13/80-asylum-seekers-in-immigration-detention-released-high-court/103096934
Lars Von Trier @ #28 Monday, November 13th, 2023 – 7:04 am
Given the 57-43 TPP, you would have to say quite nicely.
Only desperate Liberals would refer to the Preferred PM rating rather than the 2PP. 😆
C@t, Kevin Bonham has a series of posts on why preferred PM scores are ‘rubbish’:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2012/12/why-preferred-prime-ministerpremier.html
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/04/why-better-prime-ministerpremier-scores.html
Making plans for Nigel?
“Nigel Farage has been seen at Brisbane airport in Australia, adding to speculation that he will be joining the lineup in this year’s I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here!.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/12/nigel-farage-spotted-in-brisbane-just-before-start-of-im-a-celebrity
I expect that Albo’s personal ratings might remain low for a while: perhaps indefinitely. He really didn’t cover himself in glory with the Voice referendum. He is going extremely well with his international role, but I don’t think most voters care about that.
But, even if a majority of voters increasingly see him as a bit of a goof, they will continue to vote Labor while they believe Labor will do a better job at running the country than the Coalition. And this is clearly the case at the moment. The Howard era was not dissimilar: the public always saw Howard as a bit tricky, and I don’t think his close relationship with George W Bush did him a lot of good, but come election day voters consistently saw him as the better option: particularly when Labor was stupid enough to put Latham up against him.
As soon as Labor found a leader in Rudd who enthused the public and had a message that suggested to voters that he might be able to deliver something different and better than Howard, Labor won easily. (While I personally didn’t share voters’ enthusiasm for Rudd, I can see what they liked about what they thought they saw in him: ie, a super smart and supremely confident technocrat.)
Until the Libs can find a better leader with a better message, they are going to keep losing: no matter how unimpressive Albo or any successor might be. And the Libs have massive internal problems that are going to make it very difficult for them to do this in a hurry. I reckon the next decade or so is going to be a great time for Labor supporters: a bit like being a Liberal supporter in the mid-1950s.
Russian, but probably more accurate than stuff you see in the Western media re the Middle East, albeit propaganda.
https://x.com/ToryFibs/status/1723760897405972626?s=20
meher baba: ‘… come election day – voters consistently saw [Howard] as the better option‘
In 1998, voters in fact saw Beazley as the better option (2PP 51 – 49).
Alas, not reflected in the composition of the House of ‘Representatives’.
Oliver Sutton @ #38 Monday, November 13th, 2023 – 8:29 am
Sssshhh!!! Don’t tell Lars Von Trier! He likes soundly deadly earnest about it! 😆
The Age article is so disconnected from reality, do we have to worry about trolling in the mainstream media:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLtBzvw0–0
Any dividends for Labor from a pivot back to cost of living issues was only ever going to manifest itself after about 12 months of hard focused work. As L’arse Von Bot Bot knows full well. Much will depend on just how ‘sticky’, ‘sticky inflation’ turns out to be.