Once again, the latest haul of federal preselection news is dominated by both action and inaction on the Liberal Party front:
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports the Tasmanian Liberal executive has delayed until March preselection votes that were scheduled for Braddon on November 12 and Bass for November 18 amid a conservative push to oust Bridget Archer from Bass. Candidates will also be required to sign an agreement not to speak out against the party line, which was likely prompted by Archer’s outspokenness on issues such as the party’s push in parliament for a royal commission into child sex abuse.
• A report on the above matter from Benjamin Seeder of the Burnie Advocate draws my attention to the fact that Liberals preselected Susie Bower, who was also the candidate in 2022, in the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons back in April. Bower is chief executive of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone and a former Meander Valley councillor. Brian Mitchell has held the seat precariously for Labor since 2016, Bower reducing his margin in 2022 to 0.9% with a 4.3% swing that was partly a correction after a troubled Liberal campaign in 2019.
• A Liberal preselection will be held tomorrow for Russell Broadbent’s seat of Monash in regional Victoria, where the 72-year-old incumbent faces challenges from Nathan Hersey, mayor of the Shire of South Gippsland, and Mary Aldred, head of government relations for Asia Pacific at Fujitsu. Aldred is the daughter of the late Ken Aldred, who held various federal seats for the Liberals from 1975 to 1996. While her father was a figure of some controversy, The Age reports Mary Aldred is “viewed as a moderate”, in common with Broadbent.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports displeasure among Liberal National Party members at the time being taken to begin preselection proceedings for the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, which will be vacated at the next election on the retirement of Karen Andrews. Mentioned as possible contenders are Ben Naday, former migration agent and federal ministerial adviser; Leon Rebello, solicitor at King & Wood Mallesons; and David Stevens, managing director of a private strategy and investment consulting firm and Howard government cabinet policy unit adviser.
• Canberra CityNews reports the Liberals have preselected Joanne van der Plaat, Cooma lawyer and former president of the Law Society of New South Wales, as candidate for Eden-Monaro. Van der Plaat was chosen ahead of Vanessa Cheng, a management consultant.
There is also the following to relate on the polling front:
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, in from 53-47 last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady) and Greens 13.5% (down one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1371.
• SEC Newgate’s regular bi-monthly Mood of the Nation survey finds 32% rating the federal government’s performance as good, down four points from August, with poor steady at 36%. Expectations about the state of the economy three years from now have taken a hit, with the positive rating down eight from the last survey to 50% and negative up six to 34%. The question of whether Australia is headed in the right direction, on which opinion was evenly divided through 2022, is now running 63-37 against. Of the mainland states, small sample state breakdowns have consistently found optimism highest in Western Australia and lowest in Queensland. Queensland was targeted with an elevated sample of 603, of whom 27% rated the state government’s performance as good compared with 43% for poor. The poll was conducted October 18 to 23 from an overall sample of 1610.
• The Australian reports Newspoll found the most favoured options for helping with the cost of living were, in order, subsidising energy bills (84%), subsidising fuel prices (81%), cutting government spending to reduce inflation (77%), personal tax cuts (73%) and cash payments to low-income families (56%).
• Kos Samaras from RedBridge Group offers further results from its poll last week showing 34% consider the Albanese government has the right priorities compared with 50% who disagree, while 30% believe “the Coalition led by Peter Dutton” is ready for government and 50% think otherwise.
Biden VS Trump would be “Too old” VS Too crazy, too criminal, too authoritarian, too racist, too incompetent, too ignorant, too corrupt, too dangerous, too malevolent…
Not that I accept that Joe Biden is “too old”.
It’s just absurd that McBride may be imprisoned.
Prison should only be for violent people.
WTF Mark Dreyfus ???
This Labor Govt should stop trying to be like a US Govt ..!
B.S. Fairman says:
Friday, November 10, 2023 at 10:27 am
The Australia government has absolutely zero influence on the Israeli government. So whether or not, Albo calls for a ceasefire is redundant. The debate is moot.
The Americans have some influence but even then they can’t control them.
————-
The US could control Israel, it chooses not to.
To be honest, I think Biden is too old. He’s been a pretty decent president on the whole – and, it should go without saying, exponentially better than his predecessor on every imaginable level – but electorally he seems to be increasingly becoming a liability.
I don’t think he’s senile or anything like that, just suffering the inevitable exhaustion (both physical and mental) that anybody would as an 80-year-old serving in an insanely stressful and demanding role that is notorious for prematurely aging its occupants. Provided that there’s someone suitable to run in his stead (ie. not Dean Phillips or Joe Manchin, and definitely not Marianne Williamson), withdrawing from the 2024 nomination would probably be the best thing for the Democrats, and would definitely be the best thing for his own health and longevity.
Asha @ #105 Friday, November 10th, 2023 – 1:29 pm
I agree with you that Joe should be managed out.
Cat 11.04am
“Tens of thousands of South Australian school students, TAFE trainees and teachers will be recruited into science, technology, engineering and maths education pathways under a plan to make the state a defence industry powerhouse. ”
Socrates?”
(Sorry thisis long, but you asked, and it is complicated)
1. We are both agreed on the strategy and objective. It is what is needed. If we have to spend a lot of money on building up Defence capability we might as well build the stuff here.
It is a major change, because both sides of politics spent two decades running defense capability DOWN (starting with Stephen Smith cuts).
2. This has led to a chronic decline of STEM skills within the Defence Department, limiting their ability to manage complex projects, as multiple failures demonstrate. Thus the head of the RAN nuclear submarine delivery agency is a former frigate captain with no engineering training and who has ever served on a submarine. Yet he is running the 3rd largest SSN construction project in the world. Likewise the RAN Chief of Navy has never been an engineer. (The USN is quite different. Their sub construction program is run by admirals who are all degree qualified engineers).
3. We have argued on whether the means of implementation for AUKUS will achieve it, or if indeed it exists. If Labor have the will to spend the money and sign the construction contracts, that is great. As the Collins and Anzac frigate projects showed in the past, once Australian industry is given the time and the money, it responds quickly.
4. In the two decades I have lived in Adelaide, I have seen ministerial plans for manufacturing employment, generally in Adelaide’s north, come and go. For example, Edinburgh Parks was started in the late 2000s, and expected to be home to 21,000 jobs. There are 3,000 now.
https://www.investsalisbury.com.au/projects-and-precincts/edinburgh-parks/
At one stage I did a detailed employment model of Adelaide for the City, so I saw exactly how well meaning State ministers came up with completely unrealistic targets, in hopes of keeping vehicle manufacturing alive. Warnings of problems were not well received.
5. The training and education plan is good. Money is flowing and courses are being set up. There will be a nuclear engineering course run in Adelaide (next year (first time). People with skills will be of use whether they end up working in Defence projects or not.
6. To build up such an industry, nobody goes from full stop to flat out. Industries need to build up by doing things. At present most of the ASC Adelaide shipbuilding work is largely stopped. There were 3000 to 5000 involved in the Hobart AWD build peak, right now about 1200 on site at ASC.
7. The project list actually in progress does NOT inspire confidence. OPVs were started in ASC then switched to Perth. Hunter has barely started (3 years late). Sub construction has stopped (1100 jobs lost), and sub refurbishment (Collins LOTE) has not started (700 jobs treading water). The main AUKUS employment is literally, in the ADF task force in Canberra (300+).
AUKUS sub construction is promised to start in ASC in the mid 2030s (no firm date given). That is a long time away (10 years) to tell somebody to do a very specialized four year degree. What do they do for six years once graduated. The AUKUS delivery plan is not sufficiently detailed to tell them at present.
Likewise other defence manufacturing (army IFVs, artillery) has been cut back in Geelong (order 1/3 size) and lost in Qld (Rheinmettal missed IFV contract). So the existing industry mood is pretty bleak.
8. There is hope, probably more in shipbuilding than sub building. At the Indo-Pacific 2023 exhibition in Sydney there were several plans for “Tier Two” warships that were well thought out, practical, and especially the Navantia/CivMec/Austal proposal, ready to start soon in Perth.
9. Navantia also had some good options for alternatives to the BAE Hunter frigate design. That would require some short term pain halting the BAE contract and replacing it with another. However, depending on the price Navantia has offered the government (not public) it might be a case of short term pain for long term gain.
So Cat, all up it is a good announcement, the correct objective, and the correct area to focus on (skills training) to achieve it. Whether it actually happens will require money, commitment over time, and Marles to make some harder decisions than he has been prepared to make so far.
Rex:
Nope, never said that.
I hate the idea of “managing” people out. It’s fundamentally undemocratic. A politicians’ future should be decided by their party’s membership and by the voters at large, not by backroom boys.
The Democratic nomination is the purview of Democratic voters. If Biden wishes to run, and Democratic voters decide he’s the best candidate available (and out of the people currently running for the nomination, he absolutely is), then so be it.
Guys
Watch MSNBC now on Alex Wagner if you can. Brian Steltar will be on air in the next minute. It is about US Fox News. It could be very interesting.
Why would Isreal agree to a ceasefire now?
Isreal and the IDF have gone though world condemnation for war crimes already without taking any.notice of anyone.
They have entered Gaza, surrounded a big city, located tunnel entrances, and are usy blowing these tunnels and the Hamas leadership sky high.
Captured Hamas fighters have given the IDF info on the location of Hamas HQs ( under that big hospital, schools, clinics etc.) and so plans no doubt are underway.
IDF soldiers have been killed or wounded, thousands of Palestinian civilians are being killed or injured, thousands of rockets still pour into Isreal from Gaza every day, and Isreal is making gains in this mess.
If I was a practical, results driven, sociopathic military or political leader of Isreal would I listen to anything some one or other down in Australia has to say to me, especially when I ignore the pleas of millions of people marching for Palestine all around the world?
Albo, Penny, the Spud, the Greens, and anyone else in Australian politics will have about as much push as a fly against a road train in regard to the war in Gaza. Let’s face it, what they say is just for the record, anyway.
So why waste time and energy squabbling over who did or did not say whatever?
C’mon of course you did. There’s nothing wrong with saying it.
Israel will do what they like irrespective of who calls them out. Did the USA ceasefire in Iraq or Afghanistan? Did Russia ceasefire in Ukraine? Of course not. They just did whatever they wanted.
Citation needed.
I reckon the effort to control/influence Israeli policy would have been better spent some time ago.
Rex:
No, I really didn’t.
I’m curious – what do you imagine this “managing out” of Biden looking like in practice, anyway?
Israeli bombing seems to have halted the rocket barrages fired from Gaza.
It has not halted rockets and mortars fired from Lebanon and Syria.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/6/hamas-armed-wing-says-it-fired-16-rockets-at-israel-from-southern-lebanon
A tally of rockets fired over time. Note the increase in numbers over time. Note source.
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/palestinian-rocket-and-mortar-attacks-against-israel
The term “managing out” is load of bollocks to me.
‘Managing out’ is just Integrity hoping to sucker someone into a bite.
AR.
Citations.
The IDF might be lying, but
also you can go to the livestreams on YouTube and watch the rockets and intercepts live.
“A barrage of rockets
Oct. 7, 6:30 a.m. in Israel
Air raid sirens begin sounding in Jerusalem around 6:30 a.m. local time, warning citizens of the attack in progress and to immediately take cover. An estimated 2,200 rockets were fired toward southern and central Israel, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, by the Hamas militants, according to the Israel Defense Forces.”
https://abcnews.go.com/International/timeline-surprise-rocket-attack-hamas-israel/story?id=103816006
A full delegation of his most trusted nearest and dearest family and colleagues staging an intervention.
If that didn’t work then declare him unfit and remove him (25th amendment).
steve davis @ #117 Friday, November 10th, 2023 – 1:59 pm
It’s not. eg Labor managed out Emma Husar in a classic and brutal fashion.
Abetz is currently trying to get Bridget Archer managed out. It’s a very common thing in politics.
it seems the abetz faction in the tasmanian liberals want archer to go to the cros bench where she could win as a independent
In the USA pre-Covid (2019) Life expectancy at age 65 was 20.8 years for females and 18.2 years for males.
Sleepy Joe is not making to the end of his 2nd term should he be re-elected.
Aaron newton
Tactically I think Archer would prefer to be managed out rather than quitting. It would look better to her constituents if she was seen as the victim of dirty politics.
Puffytmd @ #119 Friday, November 10th, 2023 – 1:20 pm
Yes, I’m not disputing that some 2000+ rockets were fired by Hamas on the 7th, alongside their terroristic incursion, hostage-taking, and slaughter. Or saying that there are zero rockets.
But thousands every day? Direct from Gaza? Seems extremely implausible. Where is Hamas staging and launching that many rockets, for one thing? And how is the Israeli air force, which has been extremely active over Gaza, failing to identify and destroy the launch sites day in and day out? That would require weaponized levels of incompetence.
Even Boewar’s link, which may be inclined to cite the highest possible number, claims “only” 8500 rockets from Oct 7 to Oct 31. Taken at face value, that’s a daily average of ~350. A far cry from thousands. Given that it sounds like the bulk (~6000) were launched “in the early days”, the current daily rate would be significantly less that that, even.
I’m sure there are rockets. Just probably more like 10-100 per day than literal thousands, at this point. With most potentially coming from places other than Gaza.
”
Cronussays:
Friday, November 10, 2023 at 1:09 pm
B.S. Fairman says:
Friday, November 10, 2023 at 10:27 am
The Australia government has absolutely zero influence on the Israeli government. So whether or not, Albo calls for a ceasefire is redundant. The debate is moot.
The Americans have some influence but even then they can’t control them.
————-
The US could control Israel, it chooses not to.
”
True and it is because of US domestic considerations. With things as they are in USA, Biden administration would neither control Israel nor forcefully advice Netanyahu government.
Infact when Biden went and met Netanyahu and his cabinet after Hamas heinous attack on Israel, he reportedly said he is a Zionist and added that even non-jews can be Zionists.
Rex Douglas @ Friday, November 10, 2023 at 2:27 pm:
“[Adha]: I’m curious – what do you imagine this “managing out” of Biden looking like in practice, anyway?
A full delegation of his most trusted nearest and dearest family and colleagues staging an intervention.
If that didn’t work then declare him unfit and remove him (25th amendment).”
=============
Rex, nobody reading this is in any position to do either of those things. Why not write to those who are and suggest this? When you get their answer, could you please post it here? I’d love to know how such a suggestion would have gone down over there. 😆
Rex:
That’s not managing someone out, that’s just… a bunch of people telling Biden they think he shouldn’t run.
Jesus, that’s going a bit far. There’s little evidence that he is unfit for the presidency. For the campaign trail, perhaps, but, hey, I thought that in 2020 as well, and he proved me wrong.
Biden was democratically elected to his position, and should only be removed in extreme circumstances. Being old and doddering and prone to garbling his words doesn’t come close to being such circumstances, nor does being an electoral liability.
Yes, and they were wrong to do so. It should have been left to the local branches, and if they saw fit to preselect her again, to the voters in her electorate.
“Managing out” happens, absolutely, but it shouldn’t be encouraged or cheered on. It’s undemocratic.
Yes, that’s who the Democratic Party should be emulating. Eric Abetz.
”
steve davissays:
Friday, November 10, 2023 at 1:49 pm
Israel will do what they like irrespective of who calls them out. Did the USA ceasefire in Iraq or Afghanistan? Did Russia ceasefire in Ukraine? Of course not. They just did whatever they wanted.
”
It is as if UN never existed/exists or some poor side show.
Ven
Ive always looked upon the UN as a useless body or toothless tiger where wars are being fought especially.
JahlinWoodic:
That’s… that’s not how life expectancy works.
Don’t get me wrong, the risk of Biden passing away in office after being re-elected is probably rather high, especially when you consider the physical and mental toll that the presidency typically takes on its occupants. But he also might end up living to 100. He’s wealthy, has access to the finest medical care available, and is in pretty damn good shape for a man his age. None of us can predict when he – or when anyone, really – is going to leave this mortal coil.
I always thought she was hard done by. The leadership should have supported her.
Her only ‘crime’ was mismanaging some of her staff, which could have easily been sorted out.
But Shorten didn’t want any bad press leading into the election so Labor HQ had her managed out.
She was the perfect rep for Lindsay.
That is because nobody notices the successes and the failures are in your face. And some of the failures might have been far worse without them. UNIFIL is right now in Sth Lebanon trying to keep the peace on that border so the ME doesnt completely implode.
And the UN isnt just a diplomacy sinkhole and peacekeepers. UNICEF, for example, saves the lives and wellbeing of unimaginable numbers of children.
Here’s the Age’s rather bluntly named “death calculator”. It gives life expectancy by age.
Someone Joe Biden’s age this time next year can expect to live another 7.7 years. Given that Joe is probably in superior health for a man of his age, has a robust constitution (he must have to be President) and will have the best medical attention on tap, it’s likely to be longer.
https://www.theage.com.au/interactive/2017/death-calculator/
Based upon Australian experience but wouldn’t be too different in the USA.
Trump’s got another 10.1 years.
”
steve davissays:
Friday, November 10, 2023 at 2:53 pm
Ven
Ive always looked upon the UN as a useless body or toothless tiger where wars are being fought especially.
”
steve
I always looked upon the UN as a body controlled by powerful nations to control powerless nations especially when it comes to war.
Look at all the wars that US and its allies, Soviet Union and Russia fought, France fought, China fought after UN came into being.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVE1hBzHn3s
NZ bird poll hit by comedian’s ‘foreign interference’
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/nz-bird-poll-hit-by-foreign-interference/103088660
That is the Security Council. The General Assembly can be quite a different matter. Not that it has much punch.
The general Assembly condemned Trumps announcement on Jerusalem. They overwhelming denounced the US wrt Nicaragua after the UN ICJ found against them. I think it was only Israel who voted with the US in that.
This is the actual voting page:
https://www.birdoftheyear.org.nz/
I often muse about managing out, Rex Douglas. 😐
Don’t see u as a muse c@t.
I remember when steve777 was unaligned but curious.
”I remember when steve777 was unaligned but curious.”
When was that?
My recollection was mid 2000’s as to those views steve777.
Tony Abbott, Scott Morrison, Barnaby Joyce, Peter Dutton…. will do that to you.
Labor YES for more fossil fuels.
https://twitter.com/MrRexPatrick/status/1722839984422687084
Lars Von Trier @ #NaN Friday, November 10th, 2023 – 3:37 pm
I doubt you ever would. 😐
Steve
https://www.theage.com.au/interactive/2017/death-calculator/
“Based upon Australian experience but wouldn’t be too different in the USA.
Trump’s got another 10.1 years.”
The good news is that means no sentencing discount for Donald 🙂
Steve777 @ Friday, November 10, 2023 at 12:55 pm:
“Biden VS Trump would be “Too old” VS Too crazy, too criminal, too authoritarian, too racist, too incompetent, too ignorant, too corrupt, too dangerous, too malevolent…
Not that I accept that Joe Biden is “too old”.”
====================
+1 to this ^
Funny the ageism on display by Biden bed-wetters.
On the one hand: ‘Too old’ = panic stations, ‘manage him out’;
On the other hand: ‘Criminal, violent, fraudulent, dishonest, cruel, dictatorial, vengeful’ = gotta roll with it, Trump will be Trump, crickets…
I say Trump should be ‘managed into’ maximum security for at least 10 years.
Lars – you have confused me with someone else.
I started posting here in January 2012. I recall when you posted under the name of a 1960s maverick Liberal. Later, you had an (online) sex change. Subsequently, you adopted the identity of a Danish movie director.
Anyway, I have never once considered voting for the Coalition since 2012, in fact not this century. Since Tampa and later with Abbott, Morrison and now Dutton as leaders, I have considered them fit only for a chamber of horrors.
That’s not to say I back everything that Labor does or plans to do. Sometimes my views are closer to the Greens. I am not and never have been a member of any political party. If I actually had any influence beyond my vote, I would be a pragmatist. Politics is the art of the possible. In any case one has to choose among the choices available (or run myself, which I have neither the inclination nor energy to do).