Weekend miscellany: Newspoll developments, climate polling, Labor national executive ballot (open thread)

Plus two federal voting intention polls, both strong for Labor, and an update on who might seek to recover Melbourne teal seats for the Liberals.

The Australian reports that Newspoll will henceforth be conducted by Pyxis Polling, the company Campbell White and Simon Levy have formed following their recent departure from YouGov Asia-Pacific’s public affairs and polling unit, which had conducted the poll hitherto. Exactly how soon the new arrangement will spring into action remains to be seen, but it’s now five weeks since we had a Newspoll-branded federal voting intention result. We do have the following:

• This week’s Roy Morgan result has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 last week, from primary votes of Labor 35.5%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12%. James Campbell also reports in the Sunday News Corp papers that a Redbridge Group poll of 1000 respondents conducted last week had federal Labor leading 55.6-44.4 on two-party preferred, and by 38% to 32% on the primary vote.

• The Age/Herald today has further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll on attitudes to climate change. One question directed respondents to pick one of three attitudes to climate change that best described their position: a serious and urgent problem demanding significant costs and sacrifices (45%, down six from October 2021), a gradual process to be addressed with small steps at a time (29%, up two) and one to be addressed only with action bearing no significant costs “until we are sure climate change is a problem” (16%, up four). The poll also recorded 59% in favour of the the government’s target to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030, with 19% opposed.

Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Amelia Hamer, director of strategy at tech start-up Airwallex, former staffer to Senator Jane Hume and grand-niece of former Victorian Premier Dick Hamer, has been in discussions with party members about Liberal preselection for Kooyong. “Associates” of Josh Frydenberg are cited as believing he will run, but “some friends” say he is “more likely not to”. Other candidates might include Lucas Moon, who ran at the state election in Richmond. In Goldstein, “former MP Tim Wilson will probably run and will face a preselection challenge from Stephanie Hunt”.

Troy Bramston of The Australian reports the vote at Labor’s national conference for its national executive has maintained the factional balance of ten positions each for Left and Right, with Anthony Albanese wielding the casting vote. A rebel Left grouping that forced the matter to a vote by running its own ticket, headed by United Firefighters Union Victorian secretary Peter Marshall, failed to win a position. (UPDATE: David Marin-Guzman of the Financial Review reports Marshall received 17 votes, two short of the quota for election.)

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published final and complete results for the Fadden by-election, including the full preference distribution and two-candidate preferred preference flow figures by candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

961 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Newspoll developments, climate polling, Labor national executive ballot (open thread)”

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  1. DB Coopersays:

    Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 10:11 pm

    We are probably just over 7 weeks from the referendum. I can understand people wanting to remain positive, but some posters here seem to be delusional in the face of mounting evidence. This is from Kevin Bonham last Friday:

    “A new Voice roundup is also likely in the next week or two, but to save the suspense, the No lead is continuing to build (Yes is now behind about 45-55 on cross-poll aggregate). There are weak signs that the rate of decline may have stopped accelerating and might even be slowing but that’s not enough for Yes which unless the polls are very wrong needs to start making real gains.”

    Also see here:


    Delusional? Possibly, Probably, Maybe?

    Here in Wagga the reception I get wearing my Yes T Shirt is miles apart from wearing a Labor shirt during election campaigns. I would normally get told to F off about 5 times on a walk with a red shirt on. Only smiles and nods with my Yes shirt.

    I’m not yet convinced that we won’t see a 2019 polling result. After all it’s not a methodology well stress tested under the whole country voting in a referendum for an exceedingly long time. So many things different to candidate/party preferential voting.

    Do undecided No’s stay home? Do soft No’s stay home? Can No voters write more clearly than Yes voters? Is there a ‘get out the vote’ element? The polls may be right but I for one will go down hunting every Yes vote so that I’ll know I did everything possible to improve our country’s first nation’s relations because…

    The current state is Broken and I don’t hear nada about any other solutions from those saying No.

    So not even close to being delusional

  2. Other than Historyintime, Jeremy and few others, all others including Lars, nath, P1 and Rex posted that they will vote ‘Yes’. Assuming for the time being that everyone is saying what they mean here is a suggestion for Voice ‘Yes’ campaign.
    You convince 5 people to vote for ‘Yes’. Then ask those 5 people to convince 5 people each to vote for ‘Yes’. So on and so forth. Then see what happens to Voice referendum.

  3. ItzaDreamsays:
    Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:29 pm
    The Climate Council supports writing Yes!
    In solidarity
    Amanda McKenzie, Prof. Tim Flannery and the Climate Council Team.
    As if anyone is going to listen to anything Flannery has to say on the subject.
    He would put people off right from the start.

  4. “ The leaders of 11 Balkan and eastern European countries signed a joint declaration backing Ukraine’s territorial integrity at a summit in Athens on Monday.

    Signed in the presence of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, they expressed their “unwavering support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders” in the face of Russia’s aggression.

    The document was signed by the leaders of Serbia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Bulgaria and Croatia, as well as Greece, which was hosting the event.”


    That’s no mean feat, getting those countries to all agree to something.

  5. Wondering the ailes of woolies today, what shocked me, speaking of honey, was the price of capilano honey. The newspapers should really get on to that. Cost of living out of control. Bet they wont though.

    There’s not much ailing Woolies based on their profit results…

    You should try buying your honey from a local producer:

    Capilano returns to selling imported honey – Cloverdale, Chandlers

  6. Lars Von Trier
    My view has not changed. The voice will go down, and it forever will be a stain on the Liberals; much like children overboard; a further stain on Dutton’s reputation, much like Dutton walking out on the apology; and the greens, much like there failure to support the CPRS.

    But you don’t care do you, the Liberals are wreckers through and through, it is all that matters; the Greens are blockers, and for then it’s all that matters.

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