The Australian reports that Newspoll will henceforth be conducted by Pyxis Polling, the company Campbell White and Simon Levy have formed following their recent departure from YouGov Asia-Pacific’s public affairs and polling unit, which had conducted the poll hitherto. Exactly how soon the new arrangement will spring into action remains to be seen, but it’s now five weeks since we had a Newspoll-branded federal voting intention result. We do have the following:
• This week’s Roy Morgan result has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 last week, from primary votes of Labor 35.5%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12%. James Campbell also reports in the Sunday News Corp papers that a Redbridge Group poll of 1000 respondents conducted last week had federal Labor leading 55.6-44.4 on two-party preferred, and by 38% to 32% on the primary vote.
• The Age/Herald today has further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll on attitudes to climate change. One question directed respondents to pick one of three attitudes to climate change that best described their position: a serious and urgent problem demanding significant costs and sacrifices (45%, down six from October 2021), a gradual process to be addressed with small steps at a time (29%, up two) and one to be addressed only with action bearing no significant costs “until we are sure climate change is a problem” (16%, up four). The poll also recorded 59% in favour of the the government’s target to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030, with 19% opposed.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Amelia Hamer, director of strategy at tech start-up Airwallex, former staffer to Senator Jane Hume and grand-niece of former Victorian Premier Dick Hamer, has been in discussions with party members about Liberal preselection for Kooyong. “Associates” of Josh Frydenberg are cited as believing he will run, but “some friends” say he is “more likely not to”. Other candidates might include Lucas Moon, who ran at the state election in Richmond. In Goldstein, “former MP Tim Wilson will probably run and will face a preselection challenge from Stephanie Hunt”.
• Troy Bramston of The Australian reports the vote at Labor’s national conference for its national executive has maintained the factional balance of ten positions each for Left and Right, with Anthony Albanese wielding the casting vote. A rebel Left grouping that forced the matter to a vote by running its own ticket, headed by United Firefighters Union Victorian secretary Peter Marshall, failed to win a position. (UPDATE: David Marin-Guzman of the Financial Review reports Marshall received 17 votes, two short of the quota for election.)
• The Australian Electoral Commission has published final and complete results for the Fadden by-election, including the full preference distribution and two-candidate preferred preference flow figures by candidate.
Labor power brokers don’t see the role of government as serving voters. They think the whole point is to serve the donors and the political class.
They also believe in their bones that the housing market is working fine because it enriches the 17% of households who are landlords. What about the other 83%? Don’t care. Out of sight, out of mind. From their ivory tower the housing market works well because real estate lobbyists and the finance sector say it does.
I thought their poll just before the last vic election was crap. I was wrong and Morgan was confirmed by Newspoll 2 days later and the election result showed they were on the money.
Doesn’t Morgan have a 1-2 point lean to Labor (at least federally)?
Lars Von Trier:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 8:04 pm
[‘It’s ok Mavis, sprocket doesn’t mind being reminded of those instances when he “misspoke”. Its very American actually.’]
Over the years, I’ve found your & sprocket’s exchanges entertaining – surely beating the normal dross. Pepsys.
Trump’s already agreed to front up on Thursday. Bond’s been set at $200,000, and ….
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/21/donald-trump-bond-set-fulton-county-georgia
Those Morgan numbers add up to 97, so is that 3% ‘someone else’ or ‘don’t know’?
I get Labor 2PP = 0 + 34 + 10 (Grn) + 2 (ON) + 6 (Ind/oth) = 52.
Mavis, I find a little rhetorical nip administered by me to sprocket from time to time is very beneficial for him. It calms him down.
The Ind/other vote is 17.
5.5 ON
8.5 IND
3 must be others – sorry just checked the Morgan site.
Charles Haywood and the Society for American Renewal.
Key words: Palingenetic Nationalism
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/22/charles-haywood-claremont-institute-sacr-far-right
Holden Hillbilly
“ The burden on the budget created by the age pension will decrease over time, despite the rapid ageing of the population, due to more people using superannuation to fund their retirement, the Intergenerational Report says.”
The IGR is correct as long as the assumptions behind it remain correct. We would only have to see a future LNP government succeed in changing the laws to allow first home buyers or others to take super out to pay for a home deposit/home and this could change very fast.
Cronus, Ukraine has been very smart to focus on preserving units as much as an offensive posture will allow, and on patiently cracking open the hard outer shell of Russia’s extensive and dense defensive fortifications. Battering away dumbly like the Russians did for eight or so months in Bakhmut was never going to be a sensible strategy for a country outnumbered almost four to one in population.
Nicholas says:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 8:21 pm
Labor power brokers don’t see the role of government as serving voters. They think the whole point is to serve the donors and the political class.
They also believe in their bones that the housing market is working fine because it enriches the 17% of households who are landlords. What about the other 83%? Don’t care. Out of sight, out of mind. From their ivory tower the housing market works well because real estate lobbyists and the finance sector say it does.
___________________
Do you mind pointing me to the 17% of households being landlords evidence please? I thought it a little higher than that.
sprocket_ @ Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 7:36 pm:
“EA
Hearing that Russian propaganda is pivoting to ‘we have to stop all that bloodshed, we are Slavic brothers, we should stop fighting and talk..’
Trying for the exit ramp it would seem. Choices being:
1. Current line of contact – Russian position
2. 2022 line – possibly Ukrainian
3. 2014 line – more likely Ukrainian
Only reason Russia is pivoting to this, is that they are losing.”
================
Sprocket, it is pretty inconsistent of them to be trying that pivot while simultaneously making a big song and dance about rehabilitating Stalin, surely the ‘Slavic brother’ directly responsible for the most number of Ukrainian deaths in all their history, and second biggest killer of Ukrainians overall after Hitler.
Not to mention this ‘pivot’ coming over 500,000 Russian and Ukrainian deaths too late in this conflict. They really are living in a reality-warping bubble if they think they can pull off a pivot like that.
Kos Samaras on twitter earlier today. You can download a PDF.
“Last Sunday, our Nationwide poll was published in several media outlets. You can download the full report here. Federal Labor has a comfortable lead.”
https://redbridgegroup.com.au/august-2023-national-poll/
Leroy says:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 8:46 pm
Kos Samaras on twitter earlier today. You can download a PDF.
“Last Sunday, our Nationwide poll was published in several media outlets. You can download the full report here. Federal Labor has a comfortable lead.”
https://redbridgegroup.com.au/august-2023-national-poll/
_________________
Thanks!
Leroy says:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 8:46 pm
Kos Samaras on twitter earlier today. You can download a PDF.
“Last Sunday, our Nationwide poll was published in several media outlets. You can download the full report here. Federal Labor has a comfortable lead.”
https://redbridgegroup.com.au/august-2023-national-poll/
—————————-
The Libs still really have the 65+ age group locked in.
Wondering the ailes of woolies today, what shocked me, speaking of honey, was the price of capilano honey. The newspapers should really get on to that. Cost of living out of control. Bet they wont though.
The quality of all the polling companies are questionable now.
Newspoll has undergone turmoil recently and it is yet to be seen if that will have changed anything.
Morgan’s biggest failure was 2 decades ago but they have never been able to regain their credibility since.
Essential doesn’t believe in TPP so have created a Two party prefer plus which is really minus some data.
Resolve tends to overshoot significantly.
Redbridge talks a strong game but they tend to drilldown too far into their data sometimes to support their theses (small sample sizes etc).
None are publishing very detail reports like you get out of the American polls (with raw numbers etc.)
Sprocket
One should be wary of Lars predictions. Lars predicted in August (or was it July, 2021? Who cares BTW) 2021 that by October 2021 COVID will be almost gone and Morrison ascendency over Albanese will again be established and October, 2021 will be ‘Peak Albo’.
The thing is Lars never envisaged that Gladys B, who saved LNP government till that time, would be gone by October 1, 2021 and all hell would brake loose on COVID by December 2021 with Omicron variant and the rest as they is history.
Aqualung at 6.32 pm
I presume the ABC journo did not press nuke-maniac Littleproud on many of the lies in the No booklet.
You can read an annotated version of that booklet, with comments by Guardian journos, at this link:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2023/jul/20/the-vote-no-pamphlet-referendum-voice-to-parliament-voting-essay-aec-published-read-in-full-annotated-fact-checked
That is slightly updated from when it was released, with comments by former High Court Chief Justice French and Justice Hayne added near the start.
The Guardian commentary on the Yes booklet is at:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2023/jul/20/the-vote-yes-pamphlet-referendum-voice-to-parliament-voting-essay-aec-published-read-in-full-annotated-fact-checked
That commentary on the Yes booklet is weaker, in the sense that it does not highlight the differences.
The key passage is under point 2 of the Guardian Yes commentary, which says this:
“Many in the no campaign, including the parliamentary Liberal party, say they support constitutional recognition and would strongly support that sole question being put at the referendum. The no campaign’s major message is in opposition to the voice itself, not constitutional recognition.”
What is missing is the historical point that, after 24 years (with the LNP in office for nearly 17 of those years), all the No-hopers are proposing is a re-run of Howard’s failed 1999 Preamble. Although that Preamble is mentioned later on at point 6 of that commentary, the contrast between the change the Yes campaign is promoting and the reversal the No campaign is suggesting is not make directly clear.
The best appraisal of the No campaign remains that made by Peter Gutwein in early April:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-07/peter-gutwein-frank-advice-to-liberal-party-on-voice-opposition-/102196090
wranslide
Wondering the ailes of woolies today, what shocked me, speaking of honey, was the price of capilano honey. The newspapers should really get on to that. Cost of living out of control. Bet they wont though.
I know bees are doing it tough. But the price of honey in general is exorbitant.
”
Mavissays:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 8:02 pm
Lars, from time to time I’ve observed a cruel streak in you. I mean, I can’t remember what I had for tea tonight. Now I do: a fricassée of jellyfish, garnished with onion, served with heaps of lobster sauce.
”
Mavis
Only ‘time to time you observed cruel streak in Lars’?
It is more often than not. Only when Irish Lars posted the cruel streak is not evident. 🙂
How adorable – ven fighting sprocket’s battles for him.
I guess I’m the only one who watched Peter Dutton on Kitchen Cabinet tonight.
I actually didn’t mind it, I saw a totally new side to Dutton, a quieter and more shy person than we’re used to in public. OK, I wouldn’t vote for him, but I don’t think he’s the total monster either that he’s often painted as by the left.
Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:11 pm
How adorable – ven fighting sprocket’s battles for him.
_______________________
Pretty sure they are all your battles though, Lars/Edwina/Edward/? 😉
Cronus @ #891 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2023 – 7:26 pm
The new draftees should mutiny. It’s safer than going to Ukraine.
”
Evansays:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:15 pm
I guess I’m the only one who watched Peter Dutton on Kitchen Cabinet tonight.
I actually didn’t mind it, I saw a totally new side to Dutton, a quieter and more shy person than we’re used to in public. OK, I wouldn’t vote for him, but I don’t think he’s the total monster either that he’s often painted as by the left.
”
Evan
How do you know that the persona on Kitchen Cabinet is not an act and the persona we daily see on TVs isn’t the real Dutton?
Cronus says:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 8:57 pm
Leroy says:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 8:46 pm
Kos Samaras on twitter earlier today. You can download a PDF.
“Last Sunday, our Nationwide poll was published in several media outlets. You can download the full report here. Federal Labor has a comfortable lead.”
https://redbridgegroup.com.au/august-2023-national-poll/
—————————-
The Libs still really have the 65+ age group locked in.
_____________
Certainly. I am surprised by the religious breakdown. Similar to the Voice polling.
Evan says:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:15 pm
I guess I’m the only one who watched Peter Dutton on Kitchen Cabinet tonight.
I actually didn’t mind it, I saw a totally new side to Dutton, a quieter and more shy person than we’re used to in public. OK, I wouldn’t vote for him, but I don’t think he’s the total monster either that he’s often painted as by the left.
_____________
And this is the purpose. To humanise. It is what makes Annabel Crabb’s show problematic.
From The Climate Council
Dear Recipient
In the coming months, Australians will be asked to vote on whether to recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in the Constitution and establish a Voice to Parliament.
The Climate Council supports writing Yes!
Why we’re supporting Yes
Australia is home to the oldest continuous living culture on Earth. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities in Australia are strong, proud and resilient. They have been caring for Country for millennia, and prior to colonisation flourished sustainably on this land and surrounding seas for generations.
But First Nations people are not recognised in our Constitution, and do not have an adequate and permanent voice over important matters that affect their lives. This includes climate change: how we prepare for and respond to its consequences, as well as the solutions we need to rapidly scale up, which should be informed by First Nations knowledge.
Laws and policies are more effective when those affected by them have a say on how they are designed. By writing Yes at the referendum, we can help ensure that First Nations people are better represented and listened to on a range of critical issues that improve outcomes around health, life expectancy, education and employment.
This referendum is an opportunity for all Australians to come together, listen, and take a vital step forward as a nation. By voting Yes, we can build support for solutions that First Nations people have long campaigned for.
The Uluru Statement from the Heart
Australia has been considering constitutional recognition of our First peoples for many years. Through the Uluru Statement from the Heart – the largest consensus of First Nations people on a proposal for substantive recognition – Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples asked that this recognition comes through a Voice to Parliament, which will give advice on laws and policies that affect their communities.
The Climate Council supports the full implementation of the Uluru Statement from the Heart. We are proud to have joined Allies for Uluru – a coalition of more than 200 community, non-government and corporate organisations from across the country that have come together in support of Voice, Treaty, Truth.
We are also committed to better supporting the rights, strengths and leadership of First Nations people now, and into the future. This week, the Climate Council will be using its social media platforms to share stories of First Nations strength, leadership and vision for the future – in their own words. Check out the links below to learn more about how you can get involved and amplify the support for writing Yes.
A Yes vote is an important opportunity to move forward as a nation. This is a chance for all of us to learn about and honour the rights, history and strengths of First Nations people.
In solidarity
Amanda McKenzie, Prof. Tim Flannery and the Climate Council Team
B.S. Fairman at 9.03 pm (and Confessions earlier)
Consider the implications of your comment for the accuracy of public perceptions of the Voice polling.
See: https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/07/voice-referendum-polling-no-leads.html
That is Dr Bonham’s latest analysis a month ago. Focus on the text under Newspoll Gender … Anomaly
With the media’s favourite polling neddy scratched for the time being, who knows the real situation?
Consider the Essential poll (national sample of 1,050) reported two weeks ago at:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/08/no-vote-overtakes-yes-in-all-states-except-victoria-guardian-essential-poll-shows
“On a state-by-state basis, no was ahead of yes in: Queensland, 51% to 40%; Western Australia, 48% to 39%; New South Wales, 47% to 41%; and South Australia 48% to 45%. In Victoria, yes was narrowly ahead 47% to 46%.”
The sample sizes on which all of those claims are based, including NSW and Victoria, are far too small.
By the way, sample sizes in many US polls seem smallish, but the question is usually simpler or cruder.
So where does that leave the contending referendum campaigns? The No-hopers might think they are on a roll, because of the success of their distorting messages, as judged by those polls, amplified no doubt for the main organisers of the No campaign by their various self-satisfying echo-chambers.
The Yes campaign organisers will have understood how much work they still have to do from the trend in the published polls since May. They may also have access to the larger sample internal poll done by Labor in July, which showed a tie in NSW and Yes ahead in Victoria, Tasmania and SA.
It makes sense for the next main public push for Yes to occur in, or be launched from, Adelaide, since Yes has to win those 4 states. If Yes wins both NSW and Victoria, it should win the national vote.
Presumably Labor will conduct another internal (and large sample) poll soon, around the time the referendum date is announced. Will the No-hopers do the same, or just believe they are still ahead?
From ground campaigning for Yes in a small town east of Queanbeyan, there is starting to be more interest from electors, as judged by requests for accurate information. There remains a garbage dump of misinformation to put in perspective, but doing so remains possible, at least in those 4 states. We have scheduled our main public meeting (with Senator David Pocock as key speaker) for 9 September. According to recent media reports, that will be soon after the referendum date has been announced.
Cronus
“ The Libs still really have the 65+ age group locked in.”
I have come to think it may be as simple as that the older people get, the less psychologically likely they are to change their mind about something.
For them supporting the Liberals is a statement of values, not a rational choice.
Interesting that the only demographic the Coalition lead in from the RedBridge polling is the over 65’s
It is also noted that the publicity those campaigning against the Referendum question continues to identify the demographic promoting “No”
And that a couple (only) of Liberals are now distancing themselves from that demographic
In regards rents, the question is how many Landlords raise the rental annually?
Because I would suggest that it is not a given that all Landlords raise rents annually
Some I know are more than happy with the tenants because they pay promptly and on time and they maintain the property
So the Landlords wish to keep them as tenants
To freeze rents is an obvious nonsense
To cap rental increases to inflation is fraught because it will prompt annual increases which may otherwise not be the case plus, in these times of elevated inflation, increases capped to inflation are going to reflect the rate of inflation during the month the rent review becomes due
So if your rent review was due when the inflation rate was at its peak before abating over the last so many months because of RBA, your increase would have been by a figure in excess of what it is today, and where it will be over the next 18 months or so before inflation returns to band (the timeline given by the RBA)
So luck of the draw depending on when your 12 month tenancy concludes
“Your rent is going up by 9% because that is the rate of inflation”
“Can’t you delay the increase by 3 months, when the rate of inflation will be 6%?”
“No”
The arbitrator is a willing payer and a willing recipient
The market dictates
And the market is a factor of supply and demand
In regards allocation of social housing for low income earners within apartment blocks as mandatory, that has flaws
I know a couple of people who own apartments in Richmond, overlooking the Yarra so pristine (and completed over the last 18 months)
There was an allocation of social housing and this has led to problems, the occupants of the social housing trashing the place, using and dealing in drugs including in public areas, begging and being threatening and otherwise impacting on amenity and security
And bringing values down resulting in settlements with the developer (the purchases off the plan and social housing exceeding what was in the Prospectus)
The developer is/has negotiated to buy back the social housing
Under pressure from the owners
These are real life issues
Never judge others by self
Fine words and sentiment only go so far
And, at the end of the day are windy rhetoric seeking publicity, exclusively
This is a bit rich …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-22/penny-wong-no-campaign-730/102762394
… coming as it does from the party that is using fear of the Yellow Peril as a political tactic 🙁
Player One says:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:40 pm
This is a bit rich …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-22/penny-wong-no-campaign-730/102762394
Foreign Minister Penny Wong says there are some No campaigners who are saying things “designed to make people fearful” about the Voice to Parliament.
… coming as it does from the party that is using fear of the Yellow Peril as a political tactic
_________________
You are really carrying a lot of pain as an ex-Labor member.
Are you upset at what was said here? Or who it was that said it?
Griff @ #935 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2023 – 9:46 pm
It is the blatant double standard that upsets me.
Does it not upset you?
Player One says:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:48 pm
Griff @ #935 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2023 – 9:46 pm
“Are you upset at what was said here? Or who it was that said it?”
It is the blatant double standard that upsets me.
Does it not upset you?
_______________________
Blatant to you. Hence my observation.
Redbridge numbers:
Under 50: 60/40 to the ALP
50-64: 55/45 to the ALP
Over 65: 47/53 – LNP ahead
No Religion: 63/37 to the ALP
Religion and old people have something in common with the LNP – They are dying out.
These numbers are truly harrowing for the LNP.
Griff @ #937 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2023 – 9:51 pm
So, I guess that’s a “no”.
What a surprise 🙁
Player One ”coming as it does from the party that is using fear of the Yellow Peril as a political tactic ”
Player One – that is a ridiculous comment.
OK, I’m an AUKUS skeptic although I’ve mostly stayed out of the discussion here. However, the regime in Beijing in definitely a worry since the ascent of Xi a decade or so ago. It requires a response, although I am not convinced that Aukus is the right one.
Be that as it may, it’s not the “yellow peril”, an offensive and racist slur on the Chinese people from the century before last, used in the context of fear of immigration from China. The sort of term elements of the Right might use, although not even by the Liberals and Nationals recently so far as I no.
It looks like another thrust in support of the same-same narrative which you promote endlessly.
Player One
… coming as it does from the party that is using fear of the Yellow Peril as a political tactic
Even by your abysmal standards, this statement is utter garbage.
Griff is an independent and above mere partisanship. 😉
And just to defend the over 65’s the polling in favour of the Coalition is 53/47 for that demographic
More to the point is Regional at 50/50, including Queensland where the Coalition have their strength
There were some conscripted who were in support of conscription – not many (if any!!) that I knew but I believe there may have been some from later publications
So it takes all types
nath says:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:59 pm
Griff is an independent and above mere partisanship.
__________
Less partisan than a Labor party or, indeed, an ex-Labor party member, being neither 😉
”
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 9:40 pm
This is a bit rich …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-22/penny-wong-no-campaign-730/102762394
Foreign Minister Penny Wong says there are some No campaigners who are saying things “designed to make people fearful” about the Voice to Parliament.
… coming as it does from the party that is using fear of the Yellow Peril as a political tactic
”
The 2 are totally different. Unfortunately/ fortunately there is a consensus on Yellow peril after AUKUS deal has become policy of both major parties.
Whereas Voice referendum is about us. It is about our heart and soul. It is about whether we want to respect our First Nations people and their Uluru Statement from Heart and the order in which it should be implemented as per their request.
If you are a true progressive as you say and who says you support a party on their policies, you will work with ALP government whether you like their other policies or not.
We are probably just over 7 weeks from the referendum. I can understand people wanting to remain positive, but some posters here seem to be delusional in the face of mounting evidence. This is from Kevin Bonham last Friday:
“A new Voice roundup is also likely in the next week or two, but to save the suspense, the No lead is continuing to build (Yes is now behind about 45-55 on cross-poll aggregate). There are weak signs that the rate of decline may have stopped accelerating and might even be slowing but that’s not enough for Yes which unless the polls are very wrong needs to start making real gains.”
Also see here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Australian_Indigenous_Voice_referendum
Player One, since you have now raised the topic of whether or not it is correct to view the government in Beijing as a benign geopolitical influence, what do you think of its posture towards the war between Ukraine and Russia?
Pi says:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 5:14 pm
lol
It has to be said that the people of Kennedy know exactly who he is and keep electing him. He knows how to troll.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
He only wins his seat because no gays live in his electorate.
Player One at 9.40 pm
I presume you don’t own a Time Machine. However, by studying history you can tell the differences between the anti-Chinese propaganda at the time of the Vietnam war and the current farcical repeat performance, which is clearly driven by the military-industrial-media complex, not the government.
Albo and a couple of his colleagues made an impromptu decision to support USUKA 23 months ago, with no written rationale given to them, let alone a convincing one. Later they took the easy option bureaucratically, and from a narrow tactical view politically, of dumbing down on their USUKA hunch, instead of conducting an adequate review of Australia’s defence needs, starting from first principles.
There is no logic to their position, as many Labor members know, because the belligerency complex trots out the China threat to Australia thesis as if it is real today (see e.g. Lowy polls for the impact of such nonsense on public opinion), whereas the fetishised nuclear submarines are on the never never.
The best attempt to put Labor’s USUKA hunch in perspective remains Allan Behm’s whimsical essay:
https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-submarines-on-the-never-never-or-castles-in-the-sky/
If anybody has a transcript of Minister Wong’s Insiders interview on Sunday, which she ironically described as “fun”, check two things:
1) when did Wong say the first “AUKUS” submarines would arrive? Did she say “decades”? See Behm.
2) why did Speers miss the obvious “gotcha” question to the Minister about the NPT, concerning the implications for Australia’s disarmament policy of the failure of the Security Council P5 members to honour their commitment under article 6 of the NPT to seriously negotiate nuclear disarmament?
There have been no seriously new negotiations on nuclear disarmament now for over 30 years.
The simple answer to Q 2 is that Speers did not bother to read the NPT, or at least to understand it.
There are two treaties, the NPT and the Nuclear Prohibition Treaty. Wong presented the former, a relic of the Cold War now 50 years old (and fraying at the seems, to judge by recent five-yearly NPT review conferences) as the primary one historically, more or less dismissing the Prohibition Treaty as little more that a laudable but unsuccessful civil society initiative. That was her main error in what was, for her, a very easy interview, given Speers’ lack of knowledge of the provisions of the NPT.
For an informed commentary by Professor David Lee, formerly the Chief Historian at DFAT, see:
https://johnmenadue.com/australia-alliances-and-deterrence-aukus-will-not-make-us-safer/
Note that his phrasing in the third last para, about “deterring the outbreak of war”, is misplaced, as the correct phrasing should be averting the outbreak of war, which Wong got right in her interview.
For an earlier, considered analysis of Labor’s “AUKUS” inconsistencies by Professor Lee, see his essay:
https://arena.org.au/aukus-and-the-labor-tradition/
Bloody well said Ven at 10:05pm
I’m spending as many waking minutes as I can across two states as a volunteer having conversations wherever I go because I believe that A. Recognition and B. Enshrined listening, is a step to further advanced Australia towards a better joined future.
I’ve an unrelated full time job but also in the midst of organising 3 big voice events across two towns, over 3 weeks, 5 hours apart as a volunteer.
To come on and read a false equivalence is bloody disappointing. Great for those that keep score of points to good though I guess.