The Australian reports that Newspoll will henceforth be conducted by Pyxis Polling, the company Campbell White and Simon Levy have formed following their recent departure from YouGov Asia-Pacific’s public affairs and polling unit, which had conducted the poll hitherto. Exactly how soon the new arrangement will spring into action remains to be seen, but it’s now five weeks since we had a Newspoll-branded federal voting intention result. We do have the following:
• This week’s Roy Morgan result has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 last week, from primary votes of Labor 35.5%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12%. James Campbell also reports in the Sunday News Corp papers that a Redbridge Group poll of 1000 respondents conducted last week had federal Labor leading 55.6-44.4 on two-party preferred, and by 38% to 32% on the primary vote.
• The Age/Herald today has further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll on attitudes to climate change. One question directed respondents to pick one of three attitudes to climate change that best described their position: a serious and urgent problem demanding significant costs and sacrifices (45%, down six from October 2021), a gradual process to be addressed with small steps at a time (29%, up two) and one to be addressed only with action bearing no significant costs “until we are sure climate change is a problem” (16%, up four). The poll also recorded 59% in favour of the the government’s target to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030, with 19% opposed.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Amelia Hamer, director of strategy at tech start-up Airwallex, former staffer to Senator Jane Hume and grand-niece of former Victorian Premier Dick Hamer, has been in discussions with party members about Liberal preselection for Kooyong. “Associates” of Josh Frydenberg are cited as believing he will run, but “some friends” say he is “more likely not to”. Other candidates might include Lucas Moon, who ran at the state election in Richmond. In Goldstein, “former MP Tim Wilson will probably run and will face a preselection challenge from Stephanie Hunt”.
• Troy Bramston of The Australian reports the vote at Labor’s national conference for its national executive has maintained the factional balance of ten positions each for Left and Right, with Anthony Albanese wielding the casting vote. A rebel Left grouping that forced the matter to a vote by running its own ticket, headed by United Firefighters Union Victorian secretary Peter Marshall, failed to win a position. (UPDATE: David Marin-Guzman of the Financial Review reports Marshall received 17 votes, two short of the quota for election.)
• The Australian Electoral Commission has published final and complete results for the Fadden by-election, including the full preference distribution and two-candidate preferred preference flow figures by candidate.
Gee, Peter Dutton and the Coalition’s campaign to run hard in the ‘No’ campaign to knock some paint off the PM and get the Coalition to the starting line for the next federal election is going well, eh? 😆
Great night for the home of AFL football, Sydney.
What do you call Indigenous apologists for barely-disguised bigots?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-look-under-the-hood-of-the-no-campaign-isn-t-a-pretty-sight-20230817-p5dxac.html
I’m sure a ‘rebuke’ from Warren Mundine will put an end to Gary Johns’ bigotry. Not. 😐
Shellbell: “Great night for the home of AFL football, Sydney.”
Sort of. There is the small matter that the umpiring contingent’s inexplicable decision not to call for a review of the the Keays “behind” in the final minute of the Crows-Swans game could well have screwed GWS’s finals chances.
It was a decision with a potentially huge impact, affecting the finals chances of as many as five clubs: the Swans, the Crows, GWS, St Kilda and the Bulldogs. The aftermath will be quite fascinating: there are calls for the AFL to intervene in some way, but I’ll be buggered if I can see how they can.
Well-observed by Peter Lewis:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-look-under-the-hood-of-the-no-campaign-isn-t-a-pretty-sight-20230817-p5dxac.html
meher baba,
That’s football. And pretty much any sport with umpires.
C@t:
Thorpe, Price and Mundine give authority for people to vote No. All they see is Aboriginal people arguing No and it gives legitimacy to the No case.
If the Yes vote is successful, would the Coalition support the legislation?
MB
The AFL will have unpublished video showing the post being hit.
What about the Swans with wins in WA, SA, VIC and Western Sydney in the last six weeks.
c@t: “meher baba,
That’s football. And pretty much any sport with umpires.”
Totally. Still it is a bit strange to spend a lot of money on a review system and then fail to use it when it is clearly necessary.
Even watching the game live on TV, I could see that the umpire had gotten himself into the wrong position because he thought the kick was possibly going to miss the behind post, but then it boomeranged back sharply. He wasn’t helped by a Swans player banging the post in an attempt to make it look as if the ball had hit it (which is supposed to warrant a free kick, but I’ve never seen one given). I really don’t understand how the guy thought he was in a good enough position to make a decision on his own at such a crucial stage of the game. Well, pride comes before a fall: I doubt he will ever umpire a game again.
The situation wasn’t helped by half of the Adelaide team immediately embarking on a victory lap so that none of them even realised that it had been called a behind (which would have allowed them to remonstrate with the field umps and probably have gotten it reviewed). And one of the Swans players smartly grabbed the nearest ball and kicked it in right away to make sure that the field umpires were distracted and wouldn’t have time to think about a review.
It was a stark contrast to the highly professional way the video review was used in the Women’s World Cup. Oh well, the complicated rules and often arbitrary decision-making are part of AFL’s charm.
shellbell: “What about the Swans with wins in WA, SA, VIC and Western Sydney in the last six weeks.”
Not in any way bagging the Swans. They’ve had a terrific second half of the season even though they have had to make some long journeys, including travelling all the way to Western Sydney. 🙂
They have made a habit of coming home with a wet sail and unexpectedly making the finals. Longmire is a great coach. Despite all the fuss that is made about Ross Lyon, I wish my club St Kilda had taken Longmire in 2006 when we had the opportunity to choose either of them.
Nope, nope, nope.
The way Lib/nats combined primary vote stuck at 35% or below
Lib/nats and their propaganda media units, will be lucky to get to near 56 seats at the 2025 federal election ,they are going downwards to something like 50 seats
c@t: “Well-observed by Peter Lewis.”
I think he’s overcomplicated things a bit. The main problem with the Yes case is that (as they say in advertising) it hasn’t succeeded in selling a “value proposition” to the undecided voters.
I think that Albo and the others guiding the campaign for Yes believed that they were starting with the in principle support of a majority of voters (as per the same sex marriage issue), and that all they needed to do was to avoid getting drawn into the weeds with a debate about the minute details of the proposal. So they went with a sales pitch of “this is clearly a good thing, its only advisory so there is no risk associated with it, so you should just Nike it: to do anything else would be racist.”
And, as I have posted before, the problem is that a lot of the deciding voters – rightly or wrongly (and I am inclined to think they are right) – believe that any change to the Constitution is a serious matter and that they will only agree to it if it is explained to them properly.
And the Greg Craven business was especially damaging. I would expect that voters have some understanding that the High Court is more than capable of finding things in the Constitution that don’t seem to be there on the surface. So, notwithstanding all the constitutional experts and former High Court judges who said not to worry, they were always going to become even more suspicious.
I hate saying it, but I can’t see how there is any way for the Yes case to dig itself out of the hole now. As I’ve posted before, the solution to the problem is in the hands of the Indigenous leaders, who should go en masse to Albo and ask him to pull the plug, and to find a new way of taking forward the treaty and reconciliation, perhaps including a legislated Voice (which would wedge the Libs quite nicely).
On Rudy..
Murray Richman, a “veteran mob lawyer”, said he had discussed Giuliani’s charge with “several of my clients”.
“You can quote me to say, ‘They’re fucking thrilled,’” Richman said.
Jeffrey Lichtman, who represented John Gotti Jr, said: “All of my clients who had the misfortune of being prosecuted by him are laughing now. As am I … It’s not just an ironic result but it’s a just result. He was a horribly dishonest prosecutor and the wheel of karma is about to crush him.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/17/rudy-giuliani-legal-fees-trump-mar-a-lago-visit
How long before Rudy flips?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This is the best I can do today!
The top five spending pressures on the budget will account for one half of all Commonwealth spending within four decades, based on the current trajectory, the new Intergenerational Report forecasts. Phil Coorey tells us the IGR, to be rolled out over the course of this week by Jim Chalmers, says the annual blowout in cost of the so-called big five – the NDIS, interest payments on debt, defence, aged care and health – is the equivalent to $140 billion in today’s dollars, or 5.6 per cent of GDP.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/top-five-budget-pressures-to-add-140b-a-year-to-spending-20230819-p5dxt3
Amy Remeikis explains how Labor’s home equity scheme soon to be rolled out works, and who is eligible to partake in it.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/20/labor-shared-equity-scheme-what-is-it-how-does-it-work-who-is-eligible
While Labor is striving to fix the national housing crisis, its latest housing plan is a strategy that feels underdeveloped, writes Belinda Jones.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/national-cabinets-housing-plan-ambitious-but-lacking-detail,17820
Lis Visentin writes that a look under the hood of the No campaign isn’t a pretty sight.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-look-under-the-hood-of-the-no-campaign-isn-t-a-pretty-sight-20230817-p5dxac.html
“Will Qantas flying the Yes flag sort the nation’s heavy baggage?”, wonders Jacqui Maley
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/will-qantas-flying-the-yes-flag-sort-the-nation-s-heavy-baggage-20230818-p5dxnv.html
No one wants to say it publicly, but in private, Labor people are preparing for the referendum on the Voice to parliament to be lost, says James Massola.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-and-labor-are-preparing-for-the-day-after-the-voice-is-defeated-20230818-p5dxpd.html
As the NSW parliaments moves to ban gat conversion therapy, Caitlin FitzSimmons describes the damage this disgusting, religious-inspired practice inflicts.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/jeremy-was-16-and-depressed-a-psychiatrist-offered-therapy-to-suppress-his-attraction-to-boys-20230817-p5dxd9.html
At this week’s Labor Conference Defence Minister Richard Marles distributed a 32 paragraph statement for insertion into the ALP National Platform to explain the Albanese’s Government’s rationale for an incredible $368B of public expenditure on submarines. At $11.5B per paragraph, one can be left very disappointed in his words. Rex Patrick provides readers with a hard hitting paragraph-by-paragraph analysis that reveals a massive swindle.
https://michaelwest.com.au/marles-mauled-rex-patrick-demolishes-defence-sophistry-on-aukus-submarines-nuclear/
The AFL could be facing its “worst nightmare” after an unreviewed error by a goal umpire in the final minutes of the Sydney and Adelaide game could influence the final positions in the top eight. Never mind the goal umpire, the field umpires were atrocious, bewildering both teams and patrons with their inconsistency.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/worst-nightmare-possible-afl-umpire-error-costs-crows-a-finals-spot-20230819-p5dxvm.html
Cartoon Corner
Reg Lynch
Matt Golding
Matt Davidson
From the US
Confessions @ #NaN Sunday, August 20th, 2023 – 6:48 am
Yep. And they know it. I don’t know how they sleep at night. They are fully cognisant of what they’re doing. I guess they’re believers in Indigenous meritocracy, and screw the rest of them. Oh, except for the hand-picked people they would no doubt choose to go on their legislated regional boards.
😀
meher baba,
I was at a ‘Yes’ campaign picnic yesterday and the future may not be as bleak as you paint it for the ‘Yes’ vote. We were told that the ‘No’ campaign needs to persuade 80% of Undecideds in order to win. So it looks like the hard ‘No’ are locked in and they still have a hill to climb to persuade the Undecideds.
c@t: That information is clearly inconsistent with the polling on which William has reported in earlier threads. If you can confirm that it comes from some sort of private polling, I would feel more encouraged.
However, in order to gain the votes of even 20 per cent of the undecideds, the Yes campaign is going to need to gather a lot more momentum than it has at the moment. If someone is not certain about voting Yes at this stage, it means that they haven’t bought the “it’s a good thing and there’s no risk” message and are going to need a further argument to sway them. Whatever that might be, the Yes campaign is yet to produce it.
Russia reports ‘abnormal situation’ as Luna-25 tries to begin moon landing
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/19/russia-reports-abnormal-situation-as-luna-25-tries-to-begin-moon-landing
This was a rush job to try to beat India’s Chandrayaan-3; they tried the same shtick with Luna-15 and Apollo 11:
Astronomers Uncover Audio of 1969 Soviet Attempt to Beat U.S. to the Moon
https://www.wired.com/2009/07/luna-audio/
Be aware that a) you may be affected and not know it yet, and b) scammers are totally going to exploit the chaos this causes.
Australia’s internet providers are ditching email, to the disgust of older customers
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/19/australias-internet-providers-are-ditching-email-to-the-disgust-of-older-customers
Oh what a beautiful morning!
Thanks BK.
Laura Tingle is always worth a read. She uses plain speak, and has a long memory. I don’t know of anyone in the Canberra press bubble whose perspective is more informed and frank.
https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-tensions-surface-at-labors-national-conference-as-albaneses-ambitions-for-the-party-become-clear/
(also published on ABC News)
(Re~posted from previous thread, because I’m so distraught at how stubbitge Russians are persisting in their mass murder of Ukrainians)
RUSSIANS STRIKE THEATRE – KILL 7+, INJURE 117+
“At least seven people were killed and 117 wounded when a Russian missile struck a theatre and a central square in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, the interior ministry has said.
A six-year-old child was among the dead and their mother was seriously injured. Another 11 children were wounded, as were 10 police officers, according to the ministry. Twenty-five people were admitted to hospital.
People had been on their way to church to celebrate a religious holiday when a missile hit the city’s landmark Drama Theatre, the ministry said.
“A Russian missile hit right in the centre of the city, in our Chernihiv. A square, the polytechnic university, a theatre,” Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who was on a working visit to Sweden, posted on Telegram.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/19/russian-strike-on-chernihiv-ukraine
Why are they doing this, day after day ?
Thanks, BK and top of the morning to you all.
‘The top five spending pressures on the budget will account for one half of all Commonwealth spending within four decades, based on the current trajectory, the new Intergenerational Report forecasts. Phil Coorey tells us the IGR, to be rolled out over the course of this week by Jim Chalmers, says the annual blowout in cost of the so-called big five – the NDIS, interest payments on debt, defence, aged care and health – is the equivalent to $140 billion in today’s dollars, or 5.6 per cent of GDP.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/top-five-budget-pressures-to-add-140b-a-year-to-spending-20230819-p5dxt3‘
———————————
Hang on, hang on the fiat currency explanation means that a trillion dollar debt and interest payments therefore simply do not count.
There was a great sign at the entrance to the kid’s footy yesterday:
It is a game.
Children are playing the game.
The coaches are volunteers.
The referees are human.
There are no-go zones from which the adults corralled.
and so on…
… I must say that I haven’t been to a grown up game of footy for a while but the behaviour of the adults at the games I attend has been almost uniformly good.
The kids? Not so much!
meher baba,
You are ignoring the Undecideds who haven’t even begun to engage yet with the referendum. Don’t be so negative! Momentum for ‘Yes’ IS building! ‘No’ is stagnating in the cesspit of their own making.
‘Sceptic says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 7:28 am
On Rudy..
Murray Richman, a “veteran mob lawyer”, said he had discussed Giuliani’s charge with “several of my clients”.
“You can quote me to say, ‘They’re fucking thrilled,’” Richman said.
Jeffrey Lichtman, who represented John Gotti Jr, said: “All of my clients who had the misfortune of being prosecuted by him are laughing now. As am I … It’s not just an ironic result but it’s a just result. He was a horribly dishonest prosecutor and the wheel of karma is about to crush him.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/17/rudy-giuliani-legal-fees-trump-mar-a-lago-visit
How long before Rudy flips?’
————————-
Wise guys?
As posted several days ago, the Voice booklet/pamphlet is now available online:
https://www.aec.gov.au/referendums/learn/the-yes-no-booklet.html
The paper version will still take weeks to reach people; spread the word if you can.
One thing Vladimir Putin is very good at is co-opting and duchessing past European leaders:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/19/shameful-nicolas-sarkozy-under-fire-for-defending-putins-ukraine-invasion
Another one from P&I, by Bishop Philip Huggins, Director, Centre for Ecumenical Studies, Australian Centre for Christianity and Culture, originally penned 12 months ago. He emphasises that the Uluru Statement is a statement from the Heart. This is no chancy buzz word. It is critical. It is the essence.
How is it that the Uluru Statement from the Heart is even slightly controversial?
He emphasises that it is at the Heart (latin root: Cor) that we are all joined. I deeply agree with this, while not necessarily using Heart as my go to word.
https://johnmenadue.com/a-statement-from-the-heart-should-always-be-cherished/
Boerwar says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:43 am
Ven says:
….
“So they took all of their records, all of their documents, they reported it, tried to get me indicted and probably did, and then they destroyed everything,” he continued. …
————————————————-
What is this about, if anything?
I notice that, apart from Biden, Trump is no longer naming names in his sprays. The language is not pure Trump, either. They are either writing or vetting and re-writing his posts.
Click to Edit – 9 minutes and 53 seconds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmQwqwW4Lt0
WHERE ARE THE ALL CAPS MESSAGES???
C@t, niggling negativity is part on the undermining process.
As I said the other night, there is nothing negative about this. It is doing Good. The only thing they can really fall back on as their ‘negative’ is that is will be permanent. And in that they see Not Good. Which speaks for itself.
There’s nothing ‘Lib-lite’ about the S3 tax cuts. It’s hard right policy of massive wealth re-distrubution to the already wealthy.
”
Enough Alreadysays:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:18 am
(Re~posted from previous thread, because I’m so distraught at how stubbitge Russians are persisting in their mass murder of Ukrainians)
RUSSIANS STRIKE THEATRE – KILL 7+, INJURE 117+
“At least seven people were killed and 117 wounded when a Russian missile struck a theatre and a central square in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, the interior ministry has said.
A six-year-old child was among the dead and their mother was seriously injured. Another 11 children were wounded, as were 10 police officers, according to the ministry. Twenty-five people were admitted to hospital.
People had been on their way to church to celebrate a religious holiday when a missile hit the city’s landmark Drama Theatre, the ministry said.
“A Russian missile hit right in the centre of the city, in our Chernihiv. A square, the polytechnic university, a theatre,” Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who was on a working visit to Sweden, posted on Telegram.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/19/russian-strike-on-chernihiv-ukraine
Why are they doing this, day after day ?
”
EA
Why?
Since Putin believes Ukraine shouldn’t exist they want to wipe Ukraine from the face of the earth.
I will ask a why?
Why don’t NATO allow Ukraine to launch missiles onto Russian cities?
so the only person backing this labor chalinge was former senater kim car has very litle influence
I am still confident YES will get up, just like the marriage equality plebicite.
The YES case already has widespread grass roots support. People are door knocking to advocate a YES vote.
The NO case only has a few blow hards with a main stream media profile. They have nothing on the ground supporting their arguements. However, they do have some social media bullshit being spread but the reports I have seen and heard from people on the ground is that the response to face to face discussions results in recognition of the need for a YES vote.
I see more whitesplaining is the order of the day today.
”
The AFL could be facing its “worst nightmare” after an unreviewed error by a goal umpire in the final minutes of the Sydney and Adelaide game could influence the final positions in the top eight. Never mind the goal umpire, the field umpires were atrocious, bewildering both teams and patrons with their inconsistency.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/worst-nightmare-possible-afl-umpire-error-costs-crows-a-finals-spot-20230819-p5dxvm.html
”
Sydney Swans were at rough end of umpiring stick many times. I don’t remember Victorian AFL establishment condemning those decisions.
I understand and agree Two wrong don’t make a right but what we do when it is multiple wrongs?
Undecided voters usually largely stick with the status quo!
My reading of the current picture – Qld and WA are locks for No, VIC will vote yes, Tassie will probably vote yes. So the two key states are NSW and SA.
Penny Wong is on Insiders.
Ven @ Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:54 am:
[me]: “RUSSIANS STRIKE THEATRE – KILL 7+, INJURE 117+ …
… Why are they doing this, day after day ?”
[Ven]: “EA
Why?
Since Putin believes Ukraine shouldn’t exist they want to wipe Ukraine from the face of the earth.
I will ask a why?
Why don’t NATO allow Ukraine to launch missiles onto Russian cities?”
==================
Ven, that is a very good question. My belief is that Moscow has been generally successful in convincing enough people in the West that they would actually commit suicide and use nukes in Ukraine if NATO actually directly greenlighted and supplied munitions to strike major Russian population centres. I think this is a completely hollow bluff, but clearly enough people disagree to give Washington and Berlin cause to hesitate in being seen to ‘over-escalate’.
In the meantime, while the West is cringing away from an empty spectre, tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers are dying from Moscow’s cruel attack upon Ukraine.
‘Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:58 am
I see more whitesplaining is the order of the day today.’
—————————-
Integrity back with the gaslighting.
GrannyAnny says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:58 am
I am still confident YES will get up, just like the marriage equality plebicite.
The YES case already has widespread grass roots support. People are door knocking to advocate a YES vote.
The NO case only has a few blow hards with a main stream media profile. …’
———————————————
I don’t think people are sufficiently aware of the vast sea of hate being egged on in social media.
The NO has a large number of social media hate warriors. These are the same people who have been cooking law and order hate in places like Townsville and the Alice. (And have been feeding effectively into the decline of Pala in Qld, IMO.) Further, the tactic of conflating race war law and order hatred with the NO has been very effective. As has been the official No campaign to make the referendum about the running of the referendum. Finally, Price and Mundine have been extremely active in addressing grass roots rallies but also to create a view that there is massive division in Indigenous opinion.
”
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:43 am
Boerwar says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:43 am
Ven says:
….
“So they took all of their records, all of their documents, they reported it, tried to get me indicted and probably did, and then they destroyed everything,” he continued. …
————————————————-
What is this about, if anything?
I notice that, apart from Biden, Trump is no longer naming names in his sprays. The language is not pure Trump, either. They are either writing or vetting and re-writing his posts.
”
For people who think what the hell BW is posting about.
He is commenting on what I posted late last night. 🙂
Vensays:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 12:37 am
Unhingery continues as ‘mister accordion hands’ makes a deranged video. Does this loser need help?
(Watch video,)
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/19/2188228/-Unhingery-continues-as-mister-accordion-hands-makes-a-deranged-video-Does-this-loser-need-help
Trump’s latest rantings
“So now that I have full subpoena power because of the freedom of speech sham indictment by crooked Joe Biden, deranged Jack Smith and the DOJ, it has just been reported that the unselect January 6th committee — they are unselect indeed — of political hacks and thugs has illegally destroyed all of their records and their documents,” Trump claimed.
“So they took all of their records, all of their documents, they reported it, tried to get me indicted and probably did, and then they destroyed everything,” he continued. “This is unthinkable and the fake political indictment against me must be immediately withdrawn.”
Ven
Is there any substance to every single document being destroyed?
On the Voice:
Non-indigenous Australia took the land from indigenous Australians without asking, then treated them with contempt for the next two centuries. As expressed in the first element of the three-point request in the Uluru Statement from the Heart, all indigenous Australia is asking from the rest of us, in return for their forgiveness and acceptance of us, is the establishment of a dignified forum through which they can finally tell us what they think will be the impact upon them of the laws we seek to impose on them as well ourselves. I say we non-indigenous Australians should be grateful to them they are showing such goodwill towards us as to be so undemanding in their request of us. I say that voting ‘Yes!’ to this referendum is the least we should do in response to their plea. What decent person would do otherwise?