Before we proceed to a brief summary of electorally relevant current events in federal politics, please note the other quality content that it’s pushing down the order: a guest post from Adrian Beaumont on the threat of US debt default and other international events, a post on a Tasmanian poll with a summary of recent events in that state, and a detailed analysis of results from last year’s federal election in thirteen seats in inner Melbourne.
• The Fadden by-election has been set for July 25, with nominations to close on June 23. As was covered in the previous post, a Liberal National Party preselection that has attracted five nominees will be conducted today. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Anthony Albanese would rather Labor forfeit the by-election for a seat the LNP holds on a 10.6% margin, but must reckon with a local branch “agitating to run a candidate”.
• The New South Wales Liberal Party will hold its preselection this weekend to fill the Senate vacancy resulting from the death of Jim Molan in January. The field have candidates has narrowed to three: former state Transport Minister Andrew Constance, former state party president Maria Kovacic and Space Industry Association chief executive James Brown. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the latter has a long list of high-profile backers including John Howard, Julie Bishop and Dave Sharma.
• The Byron Shire Echo reports comedian Mandy Nolan will again run as the Greens candidate for the Byron Bay and Tweed Heads region seat of Richmond at the next federal election. Nolan added 5.0% to the party’s primary vote share last May to outpoll the Nationals, although preferences from right-wing minor parties pushed the Nationals candidate ahead of her at the final exclusion.
A new report from The Daily Beast claims that former President Donald Trump’s legal team has been beset by infighting and paranoia, with some attorneys fearing that others in the group have been snitching to the feds.
One of the biggest problems for the Trump legal team, according to the publication’s sources, is that Trump’s own actions have turned some of his own attorneys into potential witnesses against him, which has led to fears that they will save themselves by ratting out their client or fellow lawyers.
“The Department of Justice already has one Trump attorney’s professional notes, which could position him as a future witness against his own client, and the DOJ has another lawyer who said too much in an unrelated case and has positioned herself as yet another potential witness against her client,” the report notes.
The Daily Beast also notes that longtime Trump ally Boris Epshteyn has been a source of chaos in legal proceedings, as he has apparently blocked more experienced attorneys’ legal strategies in the federal Mar-a-Lago documents probe.
What will remain of the Liberal party when the NACC begins its work and makes its findings known?
Liberals …. corruption is thy name !
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has announced that the Storm Shadow cruise missiles supplied by the UK have successfully hit all of their Russian targets so far. The missiles, delivered earlier this month, are expected to provide long-range strike capability to Kyiv’s forces in support of their planned spring offensive.“Out of the total number of Storm Shadow launches that have already taken place, all 100% hit the targets set by the General Staff,” Reznikov told a local television station. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said the weapon system gives Ukraine the “best chance” to defend itself against Moscow’s continued “brutality.” He also stated that the Storm Shadow would allow the war-torn nation to push back invading Russian forces.
Cronus:
Tuesday, May 30, 2023 at 7:45 pm
[‘Again this is a form of chicanery by Campbell. Senior officers have never been accused of committing crimes, the issue is of knowing of serious allegations of crimes but not taking appropriate action. They are not only accountable for their actions but in certain circumstances, their inaction.’]
I think that’s the crux of the issue. In law, omission is sometimes equivalent to the commission. I think a new CDF is nigh.
Confessions/rhwombat presumably the same person- there is no direct faq on any “yes” or “no” campaign website that addresses my questions.
Very arrogant of you to presume that people should just be able to find answers out of thin air.
Happy to support the referendum but would like to know post the success of it, how it will take shape.
The government will need to plan and at least begin to establish the foundational aspects of the voice- otherwise it’s more stalling for another several years
Willie: “The government will need to plan”
Fundamental misunderstaning of the mechanics of a constitution. It is human rights. Is it the right thing to do? Yes/No. Yes it is. Establish that and then figure out how to make things right. The Australian constitution makes no mention of a prime minister. That is the system we have, because that’s the one that aligns with the constitution.
Willie Doit:
Tuesday, May 30, 2023 at 8:40 pm
[‘Confessions/rhwombat presumably the same person’]
They’re definitely not, dear.
Long time listener, first time caller
Have to agree with both Clem and Wat when it comes to Keir Starmer. Choosing to go into coalition with Conservatives when there is a progressive option available is just… I don’t even know what to say.
Pi @ #1306 Tuesday, May 30th, 2023 – 8:43 pm
Wrong Constitution. Willie ain’t from around here. My guess is Arsehole Tx or Zadnitsagrad. Same funder.
Willie Doit:
Tuesday, May 30, 2023 at 8:40 pm
I’d add, Willie, seek & you’ll perhaps find, but only if you want to.
Asha @ #1217 Tuesday, May 30th, 2023 – 8:50 pm
And where have you got the validation for this pov from? clem attlee and Wat Tyler? Lol.
I really really really enjoyed this. The Church of Musk might not. Just for the comedy, assuming any conclusions are false. No wait it seems to stick to just what Musk said. And the truth matters to him a lot.
https://youtu.be/qR23x2zeuGQ
Here is the truth that certain self-interested people on this blog don’t want you to know:
Andrew Rawnsley is Chief Political Commentator of the Observer
So, the ONLY coalition, and then not even a formal one, would be between the Labour Party and the Lib-Dems. And if you want to characterise that as an unholy alliance then you simply want the REAL Tories to win again.
Telling people to go and look it up is the problem with the yes campaign because if all they have is go look it up just call the referendum off.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1315 Tuesday, May 30th, 2023 – 8:39 pm
Agreed. I actually find the whole “It’s on the website. Look it up!” line very condescending and off-putting when certain activists/supporters use it. It’s effectively calling the other person stupid and lazy, as if they should already know because the knowledge is out there. Most of the time, it’s meant in total bad faith, of course.
C@t, we’re talking about recent goings-on in UK local government, not hypothetical arrangements after the next general election.
Wat:
+1
Wombat- if you’re trying to proselytise the “Yes” vote, you screwed up. I think it would be best for you to sit this one out the next few months
Mavis- again using empathy put yourself in the average voters mind, and if you have to travel down a convoluted path to seek answers to benign and simple questions, it comes across more as a used car salesman pitch to just “trust the dealership”
Pi- I actually don’t think it is a human rights issue but a governance issue. That doesn’t mean the voice doesn’t have merit but to say get on with it and don’t worry about the details is why the republic failed in 99.
I think “yes” campaign has the emotive argument won but the substance and mechanical aspects of the constitutional change still need to be addressed. For example, why doesn’t the “Yes” campaign put some tentative names forward so that the public can become familiar with operationally how it would work and the ideas that would be advocated.
Willie: ” I actually don’t think it is a human rights issue but a governance issue. ”
That’s the reason you don’t understand why that argument failed. Because your assertion as to the requirement of having ‘certainty’ of the governance model before the adoption of change, is completely undone by the reality that our parliamentary governance model isn’t detailed in the constitution. And that’s the larger problem. People trying to argue other peoples arguments. You don’t even know your own.
Asha @ #1226 Tuesday, May 30th, 2023 – 9:16 pm
Yes, but there’s an element of projection and postulation occurring that is trying to suggest that if it occurs on a council it could occur after the general election too.
Also, as the Andrew Rawnsley article states, it was the Lib Dems, The Greens and Labour who benefited from the Council elections and the Tories were decimated, so if there were actually any Labour-Conservative alliances it would be small in number and may have a decent reason behind it. As I would be pretty sure that it would have to be okayed by the national leadership to happen and they wouldn’t agree unless there WAS a very good reason.
Were Starmer to renounce his knighthood, he’d be far more electable, albeit he was elevated due to his office of the DPP. Labour (UK) supporters don’t support titles until one has left office, such as dear cleme’s favourite, the First Earl Attlee, who in retrospect probably earned his elevation to the Lords, but was nevertheless a class traitor. Both the Right, the Left, and everything in between eventually succumbs to baubles of office.
MexicanBeamer- That is correct. The “Yes” campaign should be explaining how is going to work instead of the motherhood campaign that they are running.
Also screaming down anyone asking questions as racist is not a way of get them onside.
Cat wrote,
“So, the ONLY coalition, and then not even a formal one, would be between the Labour Party and the Lib-Dems. And if you want to characterise that as an unholy alliance then you simply want the REAL Tories to win again.”
What are you raving on about. We are talking about the directive for Labour council administrations to enter coalitions with the Tories. OMG!
B.S. Fairmansays:
Tuesday, May 30, 2023 at 9:25 pm
MexicanBeamer- That is correct. The “Yes” campaign should be explaining how is going to work instead of the motherhood campaign that they are running.
Also screaming down anyone asking questions as racist is not a way of get them onside.
———————–
It should be easy to show how the local community could benefit from the voice even if they are not first nation people.
Right, Particularly if streamlines the existing frameworks of consultations etc.
But talking about that is what is missing from the “yes” campaign.
Mavis wrote, “were Starmer to renounce his knighthood, he’d be far more electable, albeit he was elevated due to his office of the DPP. Labour (UK) supporters don’t support titles until one has left office, such as dear Cleme’s favourite, the First Earl Attlee, who in retrospect probably earned his elevation to the Lords, but was nevertheless a class traitor. Both the Right, the Left, and everything in between eventually succumbs to baubles of office.”
As I have made clear previously, you are inadvertently correct, in that Attlee was a class traitor, in that he betrayed the establishment class, being a a member of it and not the working class. He got plenty of stick for it and his pro worker, socialist policies from his bourgeois critics.
I agree with the above statements. The “Yes” campaign would do well to move past all the “We need to do this; it’s morally right; this is the moment of reconciliation; etc.” speeches and start the “This is what’s going to happen if this referendum passes” speeches, with solid, relatable examples of what positive changes it would make for everyone involved.
Endlessly droning on with “Blah blah, constitutional framework, 300 page report, look it up” isn’t going to win this. That’s just political mist, with no substance or weight.
This might be second hand but I have just chanced on information that the Tax Office were aware of PwC dodgy dealing in 2017 and referred it to the federal cops in 2018. Guess what the cops did, not much it would appear.
And guess who was Treasurer at the time, none other that Morrison. Add that to your list of achievements Taylormade.
If the Northern Territory can have a police force, then surely the ACT can too. It’s time.
IPA Willie will need a new employer after the referendum succeeds.
Mavis:
Starmer’s unpopularity with sections of the UK Labour base has nothing to do with his knighthood and everything to do with him abandoning nearly every principle he claimed to have and nearly every promise he made during the post-2019 leadership election, for repeatedly failing to support striking workers, for having a number of left-wing MPs expelled from the party while also welcoming Conservative defectors into the party, and generally just dragging Labour screaming to the centre-right.
”Telling people to go and look it up is the problem with the yes campaign because if all they have is go look it up just call the referendum off.”
Mr Albanese announced the Voice Referendum in his victory speech. Calling off the Referendum isn’t an option. It would be a “Rudd abandoning the CPRS” moment. For better or worse, the Referendum’s on in the next 6 months. If lost, maybe there’ll be another one under another Labor PM in the 2040’s.
Touché, clem.
Starmer should renounce his “Keir” and go for a “Hugh” instead. It suits him better.
I can see now why people on this blog have no idea how to win elections.
well speaking of lords blair was not interested in becoming a member in factt the last pm to be apointed was fatcher or major
WWP.
YEP. The Musk fanboys won’t appreciate it. Lol!
Asha:
Tuesday, May 30, 2023 at 9:46 pm
I’m not so sure, the details you’ve canvassed are perhaps over the heads of the average voter. I think what Labour (UK) voters are seeking is a Kuhnian political paradigmatic shift, even though they might not be able to articulate the same. I think we’re witnessing this in Oz, where most seem to be over the politics of division, of overt hatred of some sections of the community. And that’s why I think the referendum will get up. Anyway, I’m off for beauty sleep.
Asha wrote,
Mavis:
“Starmer’s unpopularity with sections of the UK Labour base has nothing to do with his knighthood and everything to do with him abandoning nearly every principle he claimed to have and nearly every promise he made during the post-2019 leadership election, for repeatedly failing to support striking workers, for having a number of left-wing MPs expelled from the party while also welcoming Conservative defectors into the party, and generally just dragging Labour screaming to the centre-right.”
This!
Wat Tyler wrote,
“Starmer should renounce his “Keir” and go for a “Hugh” instead. It suits him better.”
This is why I and many others refer to the prick as ‘Keith.’
Sadly #Cat the ‘I fight Tories’ line doesn’t mean much any more with Elmo as PM, and the Stage 3 tax cuts locked in.
Maybe ‘I fund Tories’ is more accurate?
“Sadly #Cat the ‘I fight Tories’ line doesn’t mean much any more with Elmo as PM, and the Stage 3 tax cuts locked in.
Maybe ‘I fund Tories’ is more accurate?”
Most apt.
Much harrumphing by the crypto trot ‘true labour’ types on bludger tonight I see.
Keir Starmer is a good and true Labour man.
Which is why the likes of Clem of the Seagulls hats him. Squark. Squark!
Then we have this contribution:
“Have to agree with both Clem and Wat when it comes to Keir Starmer. Choosing to go into coalition with Conservatives when there is a progressive option available is just… I don’t even know what to say.”
It’s hard to view exactly what is happening at this distance with local government shenanigans in the UK I reckon. Also zero fucks are given all round. Local government. Pothole maintenance. Perspective. As I said. Zero fucks given.
Further, if one wants to harrumph about doing deals with the devil, one can look closer to home. Inner West Council (Sydney). Having fallen short of a majority, or a coalition with a tame independent the Labor mayor for the former council of Leichhardt, Darcy Byrne did a deal with the two Liberals elected to the amalgamated council in 2019 (?) where in return for THEIR support of him being mayor of the new mega council, the liberal Julie Passos would get the deputy position: all so that the greens could be blocked from taking control.
Passos was no ordinary Liberal either. She had form. For decades. Racially abusing people. Abusing people on account of their sexuality. Assaulting people – usually Labor campaign workers (including me). Dodging up campaign material. Baseless defamation suits against other councillors – usually labor ones. And so on. A one woman disaster zone. Yet Byrne backed her in as Deputy Mayor.
Byrne also is a member of the socialist left. Just like Clem was. Until he ratted.
Of course the Byrne-Passos pact didn’t last long.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/call-the-police-sydney-councillor-refuses-to-leave-fiery-meeting-20210415-p57jht.html
I wondered how long it would take for the NSW Right ‘voice of reason’ to pipe up. Ha, how have I ratted AE. Still voting Labor in Victoria for our great socialist premier Dan Andrews. You should know that in the unitary system, (devolution excepted), local councils are no small thing in Britain. Yeah KeIth Starmer, Labour to his boot straps, yeah about as much as Ramsay MacDonald I reckon. I bet you think he was good Labour man too and Snow as well. Still, it’s what I expect from a nominal, such as yourself.
This details an amusing clash between Passas and Labor MLC Amanda Fazio back in 2012.
Passas’s ‘citizen’s right of reply’:
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/inquiries/2083/Report%20No.%2064%20-%20Citizen's%20Right%20of%20Reply%20-%20Mrs%20Julie%20Passas%20-%20No.%203.pdf
Amanda’s version of Passas’s campaign behaviour is completely consistent with my experiences with the same woman in 1996 campaigning in Lowe at that year’s federal election.
The NSW Right… no low that they will not stoop to, no smear that they will not try to stick, no fabrication they will not construct, no lie they will not whisper and no bribe they will not accept.
Economics, the dismal science: No wonder the kiddly winks are abandoning it 😮
“Difficult, dull and boring’: The HSC subject that students are abandoning”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/difficult-dull-and-boring-the-hsc-subject-that-students-are-abandoning-20230525-p5dba8.html
More Passas gold. yet, Darcy of the Socialist left couldn’t help himself …
https://www.change.org/p/liberal-party-nsw-disendorse-julie-passas-as-liberal-candidate-for-the-inner-west-council/c
clem attlee says:
..and the Stage 3 tax cuts locked in.
So sad, chanting S3 tax cuts is all he Greens have to offer. Oh and blocking climate change action and housing action. So so sad. So much noise, so little policy development, destruction that is all that is on offer.
Not fully au fait with the situation in the UK but from this distance a Labour-Liberal-Democrat Coalition seems to be a reasonable response to a hung Parliament situation. What would be the alternative? Have a go at minority Government? Let the Tories continue in minority and hope they fall over? With all the money and most of the media behind them? Or maybe see the LDs go into coalition with the Tories? Although the LDs surely wouldn’t be such idiots as to fall for that again.