Miscellany: Fadden by-election, Liberal and Greens candidate selection (open thread)

A date set for the Fadden by-election, and an LNP candidate soon to be as well — along with a Liberal successor to the late Jim Molan in the Senate.

Before we proceed to a brief summary of electorally relevant current events in federal politics, please note the other quality content that it’s pushing down the order: a guest post from Adrian Beaumont on the threat of US debt default and other international events, a post on a Tasmanian poll with a summary of recent events in that state, and a detailed analysis of results from last year’s federal election in thirteen seats in inner Melbourne.

• The Fadden by-election has been set for July 25, with nominations to close on June 23. As was covered in the previous post, a Liberal National Party preselection that has attracted five nominees will be conducted today. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Anthony Albanese would rather Labor forfeit the by-election for a seat the LNP holds on a 10.6% margin, but must reckon with a local branch “agitating to run a candidate”.

• The New South Wales Liberal Party will hold its preselection this weekend to fill the Senate vacancy resulting from the death of Jim Molan in January. The field have candidates has narrowed to three: former state Transport Minister Andrew Constance, former state party president Maria Kovacic and Space Industry Association chief executive James Brown. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the latter has a long list of high-profile backers including John Howard, Julie Bishop and Dave Sharma.

• The Byron Shire Echo reports comedian Mandy Nolan will again run as the Greens candidate for the Byron Bay and Tweed Heads region seat of Richmond at the next federal election. Nolan added 5.0% to the party’s primary vote share last May to outpoll the Nationals, although preferences from right-wing minor parties pushed the Nationals candidate ahead of her at the final exclusion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,384 comments on “Miscellany: Fadden by-election, Liberal and Greens candidate selection (open thread)”

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  1. Solar power investment to exceed oil for first time, says IEA chief

    Fatih Birol hopeful about 1.5C goal as clean energy spending forecast to hit $1.7tn this year

    Solar power investment is set to outstrip spending on oil production this year for the first time, the head of the International Energy Agency has said, highlighting a surge in clean energy development that will help curb global emissions if the trend persists.

    “If these clean energy investments continue to grow in line with what we have seen in the past few years . . . we will soon start to see a very different energy system emerging and we can keep the 1.5C goal alive,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, told the Financial Times, in reference to the Paris Agreement target to limit the global temperature rise.

    This year $1.7tn is forecast to be spent on clean technologies compared with $1tn on fossil fuels. Five years ago, the $2tn in annual energy investment was split evenly between fossil fuels and clean technology, such as renewables, electric vehicles and low-emissions fuels.

    https://www.ft.com/content/990d3ce2-cdc1-4496-ac34-9ba20e0dcaa4

  2. Two of Donald Trump’s employees moved boxes of papers the day before FBI agents and a prosecutor visited the former president’s Florida home to retrieve classified documents in response to a subpoena — timing that investigators have come to view as suspicious and an indication of possible obstruction, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Trump and his aides also allegedly carried out a “dress rehearsal” for moving sensitive papers even before his office received the May 2022 subpoena, according to the people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a sensitive ongoing investigation.

    Prosecutors in addition have gathered evidence indicating that Trump at times kept classified documents in his office in a place where they were visible and sometimes showed them to others, these people said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/25/trump-classified-documents-mar-a-lago/

  3. ‘fess,
    The connection between certain documents and overseas Trump business will be an interesting one to draw for the investigators. 😉

    I keep wondering, after the Giuliani tapes exposed his $1 Million per Pardon fee for Trump and $1 Million for him, how much of Jared Kushner’s $3 Billion Trump asked for? And what was that money REALLY for?

  4. This is what I mean by evil:

    Before handing down the sentence, the US district judge, Amit Mehta, told a defiant Rhodes he posed a continued threat to the US government, saying it was clear he “wants democracy in this country to devolve into violence”.

    “The moment you are released, whenever that may be, you will be ready to take up arms against your government,” Mehta said.

    Rhodes claimed the prosecution was politically motivated.

    “I’m a political prisoner and like President Trump my only crime is opposing those who are destroying our country,” he said.

    At Thursday’s hearing, speaking for the prosecution, the assistant US attorney Kathryn Rakoczy pointed to interviews and speeches Rhodes has given from jail repeating Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen and saying the 2024 election would be stolen too.

    In remarks just days ago, Rhodes called for “regime change”, Rakoczy said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/25/oath-keepers-far-right-stewart-rhodes-sentence

  5. C@t:

    In the whole pay for pardons thing, what I keep coming back to is that you can’t really do pay for pardons without the person with authority to pardon being in the know of the arrangement. Surely others have had the same thought.

    Unless Trump really is able to be led cluelessly around by the nose by his inner circle. Which would be a worse look for him among the MAGA mob than the above 😆

  6. ‘fess,
    Trump would definitely have been in the know, otherwise the whole Pardon scheme would never have worked. He could be dismissive of Giuliani when he wanted to be and if he found out that Giuliani was making ALL the money for the Pardon he would have been ropeable. Watch out wall! 😆 Giuliani knew the rules anyway.

    I think there’s also a lot of second-guessing going on right now from wealthy Republicans about who to back for 2024. Trump has the base following but will he be under so many indictments and going through so many court cases by next year that the ick finally sticks to him and they look around for another candidate to back? Not Ron De Santis, though, because he’s got two left political feet. My money is on Glenn Youngkin to be the dark horse that comes through the middle. He does just enough MAGA to make the MAGAts happy and just enough Corporate Crony Capitalism to keep the donors happy. With a genial, smiling face.

  7. C@t:

    My views on the Republican nominee haven’t changed. It will be Trump. And yes, there are bound to be Republicans casting about for another candidate to latch onto, but you watch them adhere like glue to Trump when he wins the primaries. Just like in 2015-16, all their misgivings about Trump will disappear and they’ll be on the bandwagon:

    1. He’ll never win the primary. Don’t worry folks!
    2. Okay, he won the primary, but he’ll never win the presidency. Don’t worry folks!
    3. Okay, he won the presidency and he’s the president now. For better or worse we have to support the office of POTUS.

  8. Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    All those rich normie Establishment megadonors now own it; their boy DeSantis said it loud and clear: he’ll overturn the legal system to free the J6 terrorists who have been tried, convicted, and sentenced for their violent crimes.

    His “if it was political” line is the tell.
    5:37 AM · May 26, 2023
    ·
    55.4K
    Views

  9. Ven,
    And America is becoming less religious as time goes on, especially amongst the younger generations … so let them have at it with Don-ald Trump, Superstar! It’s just going to get to the point of being an extreme embarrassment for them, sooner rather than later. Then what? Donald Trump Jr becomes their new messiah? 🙄

  10. Confessions @ #12 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 7:10 am

    C@t:

    My views on the Republican nominee haven’t changed. It will be Trump. And yes, there are bound to be Republicans casting about for another candidate to latch onto, but you watch them adhere like glue to Trump when he wins the primaries. Just like in 2015-16, all their misgivings about Trump will disappear and they’ll be on the bandwagon:

    1. He’ll never win the primary. Don’t worry folks!
    2. Okay, he won the primary, but he’ll never win the presidency. Don’t worry folks!
    3. Okay, he won the presidency and he’s the president now. For better or worse we have to support the office of POTUS.

    Yes, but that was BEFORE 2016. Since then a LOT has changed. And will continue to. He’s going to have to contend with a legal system he no longer controls, for a start. And an American electorate that, in the main, want to see his fat backside in jail, along with all the other treasonous traitors like Stewart Rhodes. All the positive results for Democrats in all sorts of elections, in all sorts of states, make me think that he won’t be able to gull the electorate again.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Writing about the Voice debate, David Crowe says that Albanese lights the spark while Dutton plays with fire.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-lights-the-spark-while-dutton-plays-with-fire-20230524-p5dati.html
    Jenna Price reckons Scott Morrison’s input on the Voice to Parliament was a bit rich. It’s quite a pile on!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8209589/a-lecture-from-this-man-on-racism-inclusion-and-executive-govt-not-now-not-ever/?cs=9676
    Two MPs have made complaints to the Speaker of the House of Representatives about “vicious” attacks on first-term Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather amid a stalemate in parliament over an Albanese government policy to boost affordable housing. Paul Sakkal reports that independent Helen Haines and the Liberal National Party’s Michelle Landry have spoken to Speaker Milton Dick to raise concerns about Labor MPs allegedly personally abusing the Greens’ housing and homelessness spokesman in parliament.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/vicious-personal-attacks-on-greens-mp-draw-complaints-from-cross-party-mps-20230525-p5dbao.html
    Greens leader Adam Bandt has warned the government it can’t count on the minor party’s support for its “weak” changes to the petroleum resource rent tax. Paul Karp says that the comments underscore the possibility that if the Coalition blocks the changes the Greens may demand more revenue from offshore oil and gas in return for its support in the Senate, where it holds the balance of power.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/26/labor-cant-count-on-greens-support-for-petroleum-resource-rent-tax-warns-adam-bandt
    Meanwhile, Peter Dutton will demand Anthony Albanese reduce red tape and approval timelines for gas projects in exchange for the Coalition’s support for the government’s $2.4bn tax impost on the industry. The Opposition Leader said the Coalition was “happy to engage constructively” with Labor and would work closely with gas companies to negotiate an outcome on an overhaul to the petroleum resource rent tax, just as Joe Biden had worked with Republicans in the US.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/peter-dutton-is-open-to-the-governments-prrt-changes-but-has-conditions/news-story/072a5d4cf5b6842848040a7209cdde89
    The NSW Police officer who Tasered great-grandmother Clare Nowland before her death is “very distressed” for himself and all involved, his lawyer says, as he prepares to fight the charges. The SMH can also confirm Senior Constable Kristian White allegedly said “bugger it” after repeatedly asking the 95-year-old to drop a steak knife, sources with knowledge of the incident but who are unable to speak publicly have said.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/officer-who-tasered-nowland-very-distressed-will-fight-case-lawyer-20230525-p5db6e.html
    The independent Sydney MP, Alex Greenwich, has made explosive claims that the NSW Crime Commission may not have been given full access to information about money laundering in pubs and clubs. Alexandra Smith tells us that in an extraordinary move, the Minns government backed Greenwich’s parliamentary order to force the state’s gaming regulator to release surveillance data and compliance checks, amid concerns that money laundering is more extensive than identified in last year’s report from the NSW Crime Commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/vital-information-about-money-laundering-in-pubs-and-clubs-was-kept-secret-says-greenwich-20230525-p5db7p.html
    Labor was politically savvy in targeting property investors and big business, writes Annika Smethurst who says the state budget has served as another reminder of how brilliant the Andrews government is at politics.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-was-politically-savvy-in-targeting-property-investors-and-big-business-20230525-p5dbam.html
    Victorian state school funding is up, but high inflation and enrolment growth have combined to deliver an effective cut of 2.7 per cent, according to a budget analysis by the Australian Education Union.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/school-funding-blow-up-as-union-accuses-andrews-of-shortchanging-students-20230525-p5dbbg.html
    The compact agreed by Anthony Albanese and Joe Biden last week underscores the opportunity and potential risks created by America’s push to get less dependent on China for strategic resources, explains Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/once-in-a-generation-opportunity-for-australian-resources-is-opening-up-20230525-p5db4z.html
    Alan Kohler posits that productivity has collapsed because workers have lost hope.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/05/25/alan-kohler-productivity-workers-hope/
    Government departments have been told to take the past behaviour and conduct of all firms into consideration when deciding on contracts for any companies following a scathing assessment of PwC’s conduct by the head of the Finance Department.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-pwc-staff-with-links-to-leak-can-work-with-government-afp-investigating-20230525-p5db56.html
    Potential charges for current and former partners, and the loss of the Commonwealth as its largest customer, is a real possibility for PwC Australia, writes Colin Kruger who points out that the movement of involved PwC staff to other companies carries with it the risk of contagion.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/contagion-shows-no-one-is-safe-from-pwc-scandal-20230525-p5db9c.html
    Why are the corporate regulator (ASIC) and the Commonwealth Bank so deeply immersed in a simple case of collecting a fine for a misdemeanour? After four days in court, the Magistrate is not the only one that is confused. Lisa-Jane Roberts reports from Southport.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/crown-vs-shannon-a-tangled-web-of-lies-and-collusion-or-a-commbank-and-asic-vendetta/
    A repeat of the “cooks and hairdressers” debacle that engulfed the international education sector a decade ago is predicted to be repeated, after the federal government made visa changes that will allow people to do a six-week course in aged care with minimal English as the first step to permanent residency, writes Julie Hare. Hey spivs, come on in!
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/aged-care-visa-changes-ripe-for-rorting-20230525-p5db9w
    Angus Thompson reports that a former high-ranking officer within ACT Policing said she feared investigators speaking with Bruce Lehrmann’s lawyers during the former Coalition staffer’s rape trial would fuel rumours of police conspiring with defence.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lehrmann-officer-says-she-was-wrong-about-threshold-for-charging-a-suspect-20230525-p5db4w.html
    Britain’s high court last year determined $382,000 was a reasonable value to assign each of the approximately 340 survivors of sexual abuse at five Fairbridge Society Institutions in Australia. Now, the redress scheme administrators have slashed the payment to $3820 due to “insufficient moneys” being set aside for claims by the Prince’s Trust which took over the Fairbridge liabilities. The SMH editorial declares that such parsimony is obscene and incomprehensible. The failure to provide adequate funds to meet legal, and indeed moral, obligations to child abuse victims sits oddly with an organisation that helps high society dispense largesse to those it deems deserving or in need of help.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hardly-a-princely-sum-for-victims-of-child-abuse-20230525-p5db7o.html
    All public hospitals should offer surgical abortions or steer patients to affordable providers and the abortion pill should be easier to prescribe, says a Senate inquiry that found reproductive healthcare is a postcode lottery for many women. Natassia Chrysanthos outlines the recommendations.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/public-hospital-abortions-and-cheaper-contraceptives-needed-inquiry-finds-20230525-p5db6y.html
    Firefighters and police are working to determine the cause of the major building fire that brought Sydney’s inner city to a standstill yesterday afternoon. I bet they are!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/major-fire-breaks-out-in-surry-hills-20230525-p5dbct.html
    Australia and its fellow Five Eyes security partners have called out China for a major state-sponsored hacking operation targeting critical infrastructure networks in the United States. Matthew Knott writes that technology giant Microsoft, which uncovered the hack, said the campaign had been active since the middle of 2021 and targeted critical infrastructure assets in Guam, an island in the west Pacific Ocean that is home to some of America’s most important military bases.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australia-five-eyes-partners-blame-china-for-malicious-hacking-campaign-20230525-p5db4v.html
    Stewart Rhodes, the founder of the far-right Oath Keepers militia, was sentenced on Thursday to 18 years in prison, after being convicted of seditious conspiracy for his role in the January 6 attack on Congress.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/25/oath-keepers-far-right-stewart-rhodes-sentence
    Bill Wyman takes a look at the Ron DeSantis tilt to be the Republican nomination for US President.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/america-suddenly-feels-like-gotham-but-i-can-t-see-batman-20230524-p5datq.html
    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is staking a claim to the Republican party’s presidential nomination by taking a harder line than Donald Trump on many issues, says Farrah Tomazin.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/out-trump-ing-trump-desantis-plan-to-lift-his-presidential-campaign-20230525-p5db8h.html
    “What is going on with Elon Musk and Ron DeSantis?”, wonders Robert Reich.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/25/elon-musk-ron-desantis-authoritarianism
    Victorian construction union boss John Setka has been interviewed by police over an alleged sexual assault in March, writes Cameron Houston as Setka angles for another nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”. Setka has strenuously denied the allegation.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/setka-under-police-investigation-over-alleged-sexual-assault-20230525-p5dbdu.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding



    Mark Knight

    Andrew Dyson

    Jim Pavlidis

    Leak

    From the US













  12. Ven @ #14 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 7:11 am

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    All those rich normie Establishment megadonors now own it; their boy DeSantis said it loud and clear: he’ll overturn the legal system to free the J6 terrorists who have been tried, convicted, and sentenced for their violent crimes.

    His “if it was political” line is the tell.
    5:37 AM · May 26, 2023
    ·
    55.4K
    Views

    Today’s latest is: De Satan. 😐


  13. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, May 26, 2023 at 6:41 am
    This is what I mean by evil:
    ……….
    ………
    Rhodes claimed the prosecution was politically motivated.

    “I’m a political prisoner and like President Trump my only crime is opposing those who are destroying our country,” he said.


    Vensays:
    Friday, May 26, 2023 at 7:11 am
    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    All those rich normie Establishment megadonors now own it; their boy DeSantis said it loud and clear: he’ll overturn the legal system to free the J6 terrorists who have been tried, convicted, and sentenced for their violent crimes.

    His “if it was political” line is the tell.

    C@tmomma
    Link what Rhodes said to what DeSantis said.

  14. CNN Poll: Biden has a lead over Democratic primary challengers, but faces headwinds overall

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/25/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-2024/index.html

    Convincing the overall public that he deserves a second term could prove a challenge. Two-thirds (66%) of all Americans say a Biden victory would either be a setback or a disaster for the country. The leading contender for the Republican nomination, former president Donald Trump, fares slightly better (43% say a Trump win would be a triumph or a step forward, 56% a disaster or a setback), though the two are about even in the share who say each of them winning would be a disaster (44% say so about Trump, while 41% say the same about Biden). And among independents, 45% say a Trump win would be a disaster while 35% say a Biden win would be.

    The broader negativity toward Biden stems from a more pessimistic assessment among his own partisans than Trump faces, while strong opposition across the aisle is about even for both of them. More than 8 in 10 Democrats say a Trump win would be a disaster (82%) while a near-identical share of Republicans say a Biden win would be a disaster (83%). But Republicans are more likely to call a Trump win a triumph or a step forward (85%) than Democrats are to say the same about Biden (73%).


  15. “What is going on with Elon Musk and Ron DeSantis?”, wonders Robert Reich.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/25/elon-musk-ron-desantis-authoritarianism

    How are PB bloggers, who support Musk come what may, going to justify the new Tango between him and DeSantis?
    There is a way out for that. Well Henry Ford supported Hitler and KKK although he built “the most advanced” Ford cars at that time. Hence, Musk is just following in foot steps of Ford.

    https://mronline.org/2017/10/12/henry-fords-dirty-history/

  16. Ven: “support Musk come what may”

    Strawman.

    You hate Musk and therefore deliberately ignore the actual achievements. And then you accuse others of doing what you’ve just done.

    I would be happy as Larry if Musk stuck with spacerockets. Don’t think he knows much about social media. In the Musk hate cult, spacex doesn’t exist or he has nothing to do with its very visible success. YOU are the person that has a logic gap. Your hate blinds you.

  17. Ven,
    Stewart Rhodes will be hoping for either De Satan or Drumpf to win, but I think the hope will turn out to be hopeless.

  18. Two MPs have made complaints to the Speaker of the House of Representatives about “vicious” attacks on first-term Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather
    _____________________
    Wong again. No surprise there. A serial offender.
    Good to see her bullying being called out by cross party MP’s.
    The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.

  19. Henry Ford, like Musk, was supposed to be a great innovator of his times and at the same time a supporter of Nazism.
    Many once in 100 year events are happening lately. Musk support of DeSantis is one of them.

  20. Taylormade @ #27 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 7:52 am

    Two MPs have made complaints to the Speaker of the House of Representatives about “vicious” attacks on first-term Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather
    _____________________
    Wong again. No surprise there. A serial offender.
    Good to see her bullying being called out by cross party MP’s.
    The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.

    WRONG. It was Lower House MPs.

    The FM’s remarks have already been canvassed and she has apologised for them.

    But, you know, at least the Labor government is allowing Max Chandler-Mather to speak in parliament. Unlike the former Morrison government Leader of the House, Peter Dutton, who routinely and shamelessly moved “That the Member no longer be heard”. 😐

  21. https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/05/26/miscellany-fadden-by-election-liberal-and-greens-candidate-selection-open-thread/#comment-4114943

    How cheesed off are the serfs, unlike courtiers/ acolytes for merchant kings/ warlords, when they put BoJo into Number Ten, PM+ into the Lodge/ Hanson into parliament, TDJT (after BHO, supposedly all about Main St, and above the Wall St candidate of HRC) into the White House …
    Though that has changed, if not with Sunak, then Albo and Biden?
    Or has it, let’s see (https://www.abc.net.au/news/factcheck/promisetracker), weird this wasn’t around until 2022.

  22. Ven: “Henry Ford … a supporter of Nazism”

    Like Walt Disney? Do you hate him with the same passion?

    If you had some control over your hate you’d see how irrational you are. You simply cannot accept that your simplistic black/white understanding isnt reflected in reality. But you can’t. The hate consumes you.

  23. Kelly Meggs, the Florida leader of the Oath Keepers, was sentenced to 12 years in prison Thursday for his part in the Jan.6 Capitol insurrection.
    The sentencing came just hours after the group’s national leader, Elmer Stewart Rhodes, was sent to jail for 18 years

  24. Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather was allegedly verbally abused in Parliament by Labor MPs, independent Helen Haines and the Liberal National Party’s Michelle Landry say. The pair complained to the lower house Speaker Milton Dick separately, and not at the prompting of Chandler-Mather, 31, the SMH ($) reports. He had been talking about the $10 billion housing future fund the Greens are threatening to block in an impasse between the government and the powerbroking minor party. Chandler-Mather told the paper that Labor MPs ought to think about “why they get so angry at a young renter for suggesting that the millions of people doing it tough deserve more than crumbs”, though added he wasn’t fazed. Haines, on the other hand, found it disturbing to watch “loud”, “persistent”, “vicious” and “personal” shouting at the Brisbane MP on May 10 that “crossed a line” in her view. Labor MPs told him to “Sit down, moron,” the paper says.

  25. “House Speaker Kevin McCarthy appears set to send members home after votes on Thursday, signaling that debt negotiations with the White House will continue as the risk of a first-ever default grows.

    “While the speaker urged lawmakers to stay close to the nation’s capital over Memorial Day weekend, his top deputy, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, announced that the House will recess following votes on Thursday as negotiators continue to work on a debt ceiling deal.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/25/politics/debt-limit-talks-thursday/index.html

  26. House Democrats blast Republicans for skipping town ahead of debt crisis

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/25/2171413/-House-Democrats-blast-Republicans-for-skipping-town-ahead-of-debt-crisis

    “The nation could be thrown into default on June 1 if Congress doesn’t act to raise the debt ceiling, or if President Joe Biden fails to act unilaterally. Despite the tight deadline, despite there being no indication that anyone has put pen to paper to write the legislation that gets us out of this mess, and despite the fact that the most vulnerable people are panicking about how they’ll survive the next month, Speaker Kevin McCarthy let Republicans leave Washington on Thursday. They’re off officially until June 5 for Memorial Day, which the rest of the nation will celebrate in just one day, on May 29. They were told to be ready to come back on a day’s notice, so there’s that.

    Dozens of Democrats stuck around after their colleagues split—88 of them in fact, possibly a House record. They used the “one-minute” portion of the House floor time to remind their colleagues of their obligation to the American people—including the veterans they are supposedly honoring with this long recess—and to the Constitution.
    Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries got a standing ovation for his remarks, saying, “We never threatened to default on our debt.” They worked with the Trump administration to avoid default three times, he said, “notwithstanding the fact that in our country’s 247-year history, 25% of the nation’s debt was racked up under the four years of the Trump administration.””

  27. Yesterday I posted that US chances of defaulting their debt was 70:30.
    It appears that is a real possibility now unless Biden unilaterally raises the debt ceiling without consent form Congress.

  28. Stop laughing at DeSantis

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/25/2171290/-DeSantis-launch-was-a-disaster-His-fascism-is-much-much-worse


    In other words: You can have Trump—even a better version of him—without actual Trump and all the baggage and chaos that comes with him. It’s the “Trumpism without Trump” argument we’ve suspected might surface, paired with a ding on Trump’s ability to lead.
    The whole article is so concerned with the entirely inside baseball subject of how DeSantis is positioning himself relative to Trump without specifically calling out Trump that it never stops to talk about what DeSantis’ positions actually are, what they really mean, or how they would impact the nation.

    DeSantis’ policies include banning books, forcing educational facilities to instruct along lines of ideological purity, using government power to punish organizations that dare to speak up, sending SWAT teams after people for voting, making diversity and equality programs illegal, and enforcing bigotry against groups that constitute a small minority of the populace.

    These policies aren’t fascism-adjacent, or fascism-light: they are fascism. Textbook fascism.

    Fascism that should be, and must be, recognized and denounced by the news media on every occasion when it is expressed. Treating Ron DeSantis as if he is an acceptable candidate in the mainstream of American politics is an act so dangerous that every red flag and fire alarm should be sounded. Disguising what’s actually happening by papering it over with the made-up term “Trumpism” is a deception America can’t afford.

    This is not normal. Trump was not normal. DeSantis is not normal. This is America playing with the ideology that drove the worst disasters of the 20th century, disasters that destroyed lives in the most ghastly ways and in such colossal numbers that generations later, denial is almost an understandable response. With Trump the nation got its fingers burned; now DeSantis is offering to burn everything to the ground. That’s how he’s a “better Trump than Trump.”

    Why isn’t this being called out? Why isn’t it the focus of every article that mentions DeSantis?

  29. Pi @ #16 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 7:13 am

    I wonder how the greens are gonna try and spin this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/26/labor-cant-count-on-greens-support-for-petroleum-resource-rent-tax-warns-adam-bandt

    Perhaps like this … ?

    The Greens leader said that it is “not clear” the changes – designed to net $2.4bn over four years – will capture any additional revenue, rather than simply bring forward tax that would be paid in later years.

    “When the gas corporations are lining up begging Labor and the Liberals to pass a law you know there’s problems with it,” Bandt told Guardian Australia in an interview marking one year of the Albanese government.

    “It’s been written by the gas lobby. It’s not worth the napkin it was written on after a long lunch with the gas lobby.”

    The cartel wrote our climate change policy. Why not let them write our tax policy as well?

  30. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. On matters psephological, there is no sign in polling or public performances that anyone but Biden and Trump will win their respective nominations in USA. In the mean time the real problem for the democrats is Senators who either refuse to resign (Feinstein) or refuse to vote for their party (Manchin and Sinema). They make Biden look weak.

    In Australia i think it would be good for Labor and the Greens if the Greens oppose the PRRT, and “force” Labor to renegotiate tougher levels. There seems to be a lot of theatre in this. The PRRT as proposed is obviously too weak.

  31. Anyone wondering if the PRRT is too weak should look at the recent gas price rises and calculate the windfall profit to gas sellers from the Ukraine war alone.

    That extra profit is all in excess of what would have been budgeted for when the gas projects were approved. Many oher countries tax such profits at up to 50%

  32. Sceptic says:
    Friday, May 26, 2023 at 7:10 am
    Following another implosion of Musk achievements , I offer this to the Musk boosters on PB.
    ———————-

    Is it possible to be a Tesla supporter and owner but not a Musk booster or is absolutely everything he has touched laced with the most extraordinary evil, including by definition the fact that Tesla EVs are leading the automobile race to renewable energy reliance?

  33. Taylormade says:
    Friday, May 26, 2023 at 7:52 am
    Two MPs have made complaints to the Speaker of the House of Representatives about “vicious” attacks on first-term Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather
    _____________________
    Wong again. No surprise there. A serial offender.
    Good to see her bullying being called out by cross party MP’s.
    The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.
    ———-
    Didn’t McKim refer to Labor as psychopaths? His bullying not called out by cross-benchers. The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.

  34. Socrates @ #39 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 8:38 am

    Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. On matters psephological, there is no sign in polling or public performances that anyone but Biden and Trump will win their respective nominations in USA. In the mean time the real problem for the democrats is Senators who either refuse to resign (Feinstein) or refuse to vote for their party (Manchin and Sinema). They make Biden look weak.

    In Australia i think it would be good for Labor and the Greens if the Greens oppose the PRRT, and “force” Labor to renegotiate tougher levels. There seems to be a lot of theatre in this. The PRRT as proposed is obviously too weak.

    Yes, but the problem with this scenario is again the ‘weakness’ argument. The gas giants (see what I did there? 😉 ), won’t direct the PR campaign against The Greens who made the deal worse for them, they will direct it against the Labor government, with ‘tail wags the dog’ messaging so as to enable the election of a Coalition government at the next federal election. I’m sure the PM realises this, which is why he isn’t just rolling over to The Greens’ demands to get the Bill through.

  35. Cronus @ #43 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 8:55 am

    Taylormade says:
    Friday, May 26, 2023 at 7:52 am
    Two MPs have made complaints to the Speaker of the House of Representatives about “vicious” attacks on first-term Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather
    _____________________
    Wong again. No surprise there. A serial offender.
    Good to see her bullying being called out by cross party MP’s.
    The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.
    ———-
    Didn’t McKim refer to Labor as psychopaths? His bullying not called out by cross-benchers. The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.

    Neither did Taylormade. Because horseshoe and, my enemy’s enemy is my friend. 😐

  36. Ven @ #34 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 8:04 am

    “House Speaker Kevin McCarthy appears set to send members home after votes on Thursday, signaling that debt negotiations with the White House will continue as the risk of a first-ever default grows.

    “While the speaker urged lawmakers to stay close to the nation’s capital over Memorial Day weekend, his top deputy, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, announced that the House will recess following votes on Thursday as negotiators continue to work on a debt ceiling deal.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/25/politics/debt-limit-talks-thursday/index.html

    They’ve got 5 days till June 1. Which allows them to come back after the long weekend to vote.

  37. On Fadden:

    I’m inclined to agree with Albo that it’s better to sit this one out. But if the local branches are genuinely eager to run a candidate, might as well give it a shot.

  38. Taylormade – if you’re going to attack Labor MPs or Senators, get your facts right in the first place.
    And Labor is entitled to call out the Greens on their total hypocrisy when it comes to the housing crisis. As Jacqui Lambie said recently, the government’s bill, while not perfect, is better than nothing at all, and a useful starting point.
    The Greens housing spokesman has let fame get to him, he’s loving all the attention he’s getting from his new best friends in the Coalition.

  39. Cat

    “ Yes, but the problem with this scenario is again the ‘weakness’ argument. The gas giants (see what I did there? ), won’t direct the PR campaign against The Greens who made the deal worse for them, they will direct it against the Labor government,”

    Sorry, but caving into the PR campaign is the weakness. Labor could easily counter pointing out the gas industry broke every promise on domestic supply and prices when getting export approvals.

    If I didn’t know better sometimes I might suspect a few industry super funds have money invested in the gas industry.

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